BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

A quiet week for polling ahead of the budget, but the weekly poll aggregate nonetheless maintains the weakening trend for the Coalition and Tony Abbott.

With pollsters generally preferring to hold their fire until after the budget, this has been a fairly quiet week for polling, with only a pre-budget ReachTEL poll for Fairfax joining the regular weekly Essential Research. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its trend of four weeks in having Labor and Palmer United up, and the Coalition and the Greens down. Labor’s gain of 0.8% to 37.8% puts it 3.7% higher than where it was four weeks ago, while the Coalition’s 38.8% represents a descent over the same period from 42.0%. The Greens continue to cool down after the boost which followed the WA Senate election and the aberrant Nielsen result that immediately followed, while the Coalition decline has been reflected by a steady rise for Palmer United, from 4.3% to 6.2%.

On two-party preferred, Labor makes a slight 0.2% gain this week to 52.6%, its equal best headline result from BludgerTrack in its nearly 18 months of existence. In New South Wales the gain for Labor is 0.6%, giving it an extra gain there on the otherwise unchanged seat projection. The Essential Research poll also provides a new set of data for leadership ratings, which sees the trendlines continue in the directions established by Newspoll last week: Bill Shorten pulling out of the summer slump that followed his early honeymoon ratings, Tony Abbott down sharply on his mediocre early year figures, and a linear trend on preferred prime minister getting ever nearer to parity.

Methodological note: It has been noted that ReachTEL has been leaning slightly to Labor relative to other polls recently, something that was not evident in the pre-election polling on which its BludgerTrack bias measures had hiterto been based. Consequently, I am now applying to ReachTEL the same bias adjustment procedure I use for Morgan, the upshot of which is that its deviance over time from the voting intention results modelled by BludgerTrack is measured and controlled for. This adjustment has caused Labor’s gain this week to be slightly less than it would have been otherwise.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,950 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

Comments Page 30 of 39
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  2. I am in a state of shock was waiting for friends to have coffee with before I fly out tomorrow and the usual free copy of the Terror was on the table, Front page a Hatchet job on Ray Hadley, second page Bill Shorten’s reply. Then a go at Hockey and Truss re their remarks and finally Simon Benson having another go at LNP> I had to relook it was The Terror. Didn’t read anymore as friends arrived

  4. Rex Douglas@1447

    bemused
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 1:27 pm | PERMALINK

    …One thing none of them should be doing is buying into accepting Federal govt responsibility for state and employer responsibilities.


    It was a Rudd Govt scheme that risked the chance of fatal outcomes, which ultimately occured.

    Kevin Rudd is ultimately responsible.

    It was a good scheme.

    Rudd’s big mistake was his Beatty imitation which fell flat.

    The govt should have stood up and defended the scheme while kicking a whole lot of arses to straighten out OH&S issues in the states. Rudd failed to do it and I have ho hesitation in nailing him for it.

  5. Here’s another unpopular PM
    _______________________in Turkey
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/15/turkey-mine-disaster-aid-pm-pictures-kicking-protester

    This Guardian pic shows a young besuited aide to the Turkish PM kicking a downed demonstrator at the scene of the mining disaster…caused by negligance by the newly privatised management
    The disaster is another part of the troubles of Erdogan who has himself to blame for becoming involved in the attempted overthrown of the secular Assad regime in Syria….at the beheast…as usual of the Neo-cons and the pro-Israeli lobby in Washington
    Erdogan faced an anraged public yesterday when visiting the mining town..where the pic was taken

  7. Combet

    What a sell-out by Mr Fixit.

    If he’d done any research whatsoever, he would have found the incidence of house fires was reduced under the pink batts scheme.

    He’s even had the benefit of other people’s research.

    And he knows that one of the deaths was caused by a person ignoring safety regulations re foil insulation.

    Then again, who knows what else Combet said at the RC. He could have said all that, who knows, but unless we listen to everything he’s said, we have to rely on hearsay – the reporters who pick and choose what we’re told and forget the context.

    As I’ve said many times, we need primary documents to even begin to make an informed opinion.

    We can’t trust our media.

  8. mari

    Seems the daily terror was more anti LNP then the Herald Scum! Surprising.

    Anyhoo enjoy your trip and have a fabulous time

  9. If a worker is killed during construction of WestConnex is Abbott too blame because his Government is helping fund it?

    No.

  12. kezza

    No sellout. No gotcha. We know this because LNP budget tanking and any distraction will be grabbed wholeheartedly.

  16. If last year’s budget is anything to go by Nielsen will do what it normally does and publish on Sunday night. However, they do go early on special occasions, and perhaps this budget will be deemed to be one of them.

  18. [Greg Combet has told the royal commission into Labor’s home insulation scheme that it was difficult to compensate affected companies without giving shonky operators access to more cash.

    Mr Combet, the last Rudd government politician to front the inquiry, replaced Peter Garrett as the minister responsible for the scheme after it was suspended in the wake of the death of a fourth installer in February 2010.]

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/a/23559416/home-insulation-royal-commision-greg-combet-to-give-evidence-after-kevin-rudd-admits-responsibility/

  19. mari

    I am not amazed. Its the bad they had to write. Normal service will resume. Pattern laid out in Leveson for Murdoch press

  20. Starting with Shorten last night Labor people have been very effecctively associating the Abbott government with the Tea Party.
    Actually it was Wayne Swan that started it some years ago when he talked of the “cranks and crazies of the Tea Party”.

  21. Thanks Dee, yes I am really looking forward to Croatia as havn’t been there before. Massive flights Sydney, Singapore,Heathrow,Athens Croatia. The last change a bit worrying as flight into Athens time changed and only have 1 hour 25 minutes to get luggage & get onto Croatian plane.

  22. dave:

    [Not.going.to happen – and clive won’t be PM.]

    Of course not. I said we were indulging in fantasy baseball, remember?

    My point was just that your 76 figure assumes BAU two party system, whereas in any mooted scenario with PM Clive (saints preserve us) that assumption is clearly invalid.

  23. Greg Combet had the sense to realise there was too much risk in the Rudd HIP scheme and shut it down.

    Combet was a first class minister and his retirement from the ALP’s parliamentary ranks was a tragic consequence of the disloyalty of others. A massive loss.

  27. Sceptic @ 1445

    Harvey Norman has a good name? Surely you jest… I assume that you are

    🙂

    P.S. If anything I would interested to know Mr Harvey’s veiew of the budget on another note.

  28. guytaur @ 1409

    [Warning if eating don’t view]

    Not sure about the marriage counselling but the Grecian 1000 looks a credible alternative to someone on my budget.

  29. “@TheMurdochTimes: Australians who feel betrayed by Murdoch media after they campaigned for PM Abbott encouraging each other on Facebook to cancel Foxtel subs”

  31. SGH

    All Gerry worries about is sell Credit!

    So I guess he is pissed that consumer sentiment is going south, faster after the budget.
    Worse than a banker if that’s possible

  32. [victoria
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 2:14 pm | PERMALINK
    kezza2

    I listened to Combet’s evidence in the RC today. Dont know why you think he is a sell out.]

    I’m just going on the reporting about what Combet had to say. As I said, I so distrust the media, it’s probably distorted.

    However, when it’s reported that he was worried about the incidence of fires caused by insulation, given that he was a so-called OH&S person, then he should have known that the incidence was less under the Rudd HIP program than had been previously recorded.

    And, even if he didn’t know then, then by this time he should have availed himself of the evidence.

    I don’t recall Combet coming out in defence of the HIP. Not at all. Even though he’s had years to come to terms with the evidence.

  33. [ Bushfire Bill
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 12:56 pm | Permalink

    Hadley is now calling in the personal and professional IOUs because his wife ditched him for a NSW state of origin assistant coach. ]

    Hadley is not having many wins in recent times –

    – lost when he came the bully at work.

    – lost when he defamed the Fish & Chips Store woman.

    – making a mess of his personal life and now taking aspects of that public.

    May there be lot more to come.

  37. Turnbull and his threats of a DD.

    What a joke.

    He has been bombarded by a petition, signed by quarter of a million folk, put up by a young Liberal, to keep Labor’s NBN.

    He has been castigated by every digital site for his trashing of Labor’s NBN, and the absurdity of his MTM proposal.

    A lot of votes to lose there.

    So, why would Turnbull be agitating for a DD?

    Not on his nellie.

    This is pure junk.

  38. Looks like tories are the same all over.

    [Tories use secret dining club as front for donations

    The Conservatives are funnelling hundreds of thousands of pounds’ worth of donations to the party through a secretive dining club that allows donors to keep their identity hidden.

    The secret donations to the United and Cecil Club make it the Tories’ seventh-largest donor, with their biggest financial support coming from the billionaire hedge fund manager Sir Michael Hintze]

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-dining-club-secretively-channels-hundreds-of-thousands-of-pounds-of-funding-by-anonymous-wealthy-donors-9380723.html

  39. Dave @ 1483

    Karma I think is an adjective that comes to mind regarding Mr Hadley.

    For a supposedly articulate and intelligent city Sydney certainly does have their fair share of truly odious shock jocks. I live in Melbourne and the closest we would have is Mitchell and Elliot on 3AW. The recent failure of 3MTR Melbourne Talk Radio appears to indicate that Mexicans are not so easily accepting of screaming, bullying presenters.

    I think people like Jones et al will find it increasinly difficult to sell the budget message or the Abbott government narrative in recent weeks and months given the amount of anger in the community.

  40. Poroti
    I should have re The Terror, but felt @”unclean” even reading it
    Thank you for good wishes
    Will think of you when I see the kilted ones in Scotland

  42. [I think people like Jones et al will find it increasinly difficult to sell the budget message or the Abbott government narrative in recent weeks and months given the amount of anger in the community.]

    Can voters maintain the rage without a constant agitator like Rabbott?

    It’s the one ability I’m willing to concede that Rabbott has in spades.

  43. bemused @ 1449

    How many deaths in each state?

    SA 0

    I remember the head of SA Consumer Affairs being asked on radio why the scheme had gone smoothly in SA and he said that firstly SA law required insulation installers to have at least a general builders license, and secondly they were aware unqualified shonks were moving into industry so the state government departs with regulatory oversight actively hunted them down and forced them out. Apparently, Victoria was also very proactive, the other states less so or not at all.

    Having had first hand experience of the lax building standards enforcement in Queensland I’m not surprised 3 of the 4 deaths occurred there.

  44. Australian Working Life Residence Changes:
    .html

    For anyone living outside of Australia currently, both Age and DSP received them.

  45. [ mari

    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 2:13 pm | Permalink

    Thanks BK, will do looking forward to seeing your links and doing what I usually do. All the best
    ]
    ———————————————–

    Have a FANTASTIC and SAFE trip – fellow apprentice 🙂

    Check the daily news from OZ …. BK might need us if he doesn’t recover from his ill advised glimpse of Mr Grecian 2000+ ….

  46. Because I raised the potential interest of budget/budget reply TV ratings, here is the small sample set I’ve gleaned from the TV ratings reports in Crikey.

    I had wondered if there was a clear indication of political engagement, and if Shorten’s reply had attracted many viewers potentially indicating a willingness to listen to the ALP message … well, maybe. The numbers are interesting but probably not that clear cut.

    I dug back a few years to provide context:

    2014: Hockey 1,636,000 Shorten 999,000
    2013: Swan 945,000 Abbott 943,000
    2012: Swan 1,120,000 Abbott 685,000

    Google didn’t immediately show Crikey reports on viewing figures before 2012 and I’m not sure where else I might get those from so this small sample set is all I’ve got.

    Keeping in mind, of course, that I haven’t analysed what the various competition for viewers might have been on these various budget/reply nights, so lots of potentially confounding factors.

    The one thing that stands out clearly is very strong figures for Hockey’s delivery. Shorten’s is merely at the same level as Abbott’s was the year before.

    But I think it’s interesting comparing the figures to 2012 – clearly the real budget had many more viewers than the reply, unlike the 2013 result, but a similar pattern to this year (very roughly double the audience for the actual budget).

    2013 was probably showing the effects of being an election year with the government well and truly on the nose – people were tuning in to hear Abbott where they didn’t bother before.

    So while Shorten didn’t do much better than Abbott in the same position from the previous year, I think the fact that Abbott was looking like the clear future PM at the time, and Shorten has maintained that level of viewership is a positive thing – if people were inclined to tune out I think we would have seen a return to the 2012 sorts of levels.

    Heightened interest seems apparent for both the Treasurer and the Opposition leader – I think that does indicate more engagement on the part of the public and a healthy level of interest in what Shorten had to say – both good signs, if nothing more, for the ALP.

    Probably all of no more than passing interest value, but still…

  48. [Residents from across central and northern Queensland have reported seeing a huge flaming object fall from the sky and hit the ground “like a bomb”.

    They say they saw what appeared to be a massive ball with a blue and orange tail in the sky about 6:30pm (AEST) yesterday as it plunged towards the ground.

    Residents from Cunnamulla to Townsville have reported seeing the object, but there have been no reports of any debris found on the ground.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-16/huge-flaming-object-falls-to-earth-in-north-queensland-townsvill/5456566

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