BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

A quiet week for polling ahead of the budget, but the weekly poll aggregate nonetheless maintains the weakening trend for the Coalition and Tony Abbott.

With pollsters generally preferring to hold their fire until after the budget, this has been a fairly quiet week for polling, with only a pre-budget ReachTEL poll for Fairfax joining the regular weekly Essential Research. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its trend of four weeks in having Labor and Palmer United up, and the Coalition and the Greens down. Labor’s gain of 0.8% to 37.8% puts it 3.7% higher than where it was four weeks ago, while the Coalition’s 38.8% represents a descent over the same period from 42.0%. The Greens continue to cool down after the boost which followed the WA Senate election and the aberrant Nielsen result that immediately followed, while the Coalition decline has been reflected by a steady rise for Palmer United, from 4.3% to 6.2%.

On two-party preferred, Labor makes a slight 0.2% gain this week to 52.6%, its equal best headline result from BludgerTrack in its nearly 18 months of existence. In New South Wales the gain for Labor is 0.6%, giving it an extra gain there on the otherwise unchanged seat projection. The Essential Research poll also provides a new set of data for leadership ratings, which sees the trendlines continue in the directions established by Newspoll last week: Bill Shorten pulling out of the summer slump that followed his early honeymoon ratings, Tony Abbott down sharply on his mediocre early year figures, and a linear trend on preferred prime minister getting ever nearer to parity.

Methodological note: It has been noted that ReachTEL has been leaning slightly to Labor relative to other polls recently, something that was not evident in the pre-election polling on which its BludgerTrack bias measures had hiterto been based. Consequently, I am now applying to ReachTEL the same bias adjustment procedure I use for Morgan, the upshot of which is that its deviance over time from the voting intention results modelled by BludgerTrack is measured and controlled for. This adjustment has caused Labor’s gain this week to be slightly less than it would have been otherwise.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,950 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

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  2. Mr Fuller is imo, is trying to make meaning from his son’s meaningless death, a death caused by his own son’s flagrant disregard of OH&S rules. His son was a qualified electrician who had a brush with death a week before he repeated the action which then killed him.

    Mr Fuller, take my sincere advice. Go home, give your son the honour of your profound un-distracted grief. Remember him. It is all that is left.

  5. One thing I noted from Bill Shortens post-speech interview on 7.30 last night were comments re the raising/broadening of the GST.

    BILL SHORTEN: Sarah, there’s an even quicker way to stop the creation of an underclass. Get rid of the Abbott Government. Vote them out. In terms of the GST, this – at least John Howard had the courage, the intestinal fortitude to proselytise, to argue for his case for the GST. We know that the Abbott Government’s created a Trojan horse. They’re using the states as a cat’s paw by advancing unconscionable cuts to hospitals and to schools, forcing the states to lead the case for a heavier and broader GST. There are better ways to run this nation than to sting the bottom earner – the people at the bottom, the middle class. This government hasn’t tried to engage with Australians. It got into power by deceit. It argued, “No changes to pension, no changes to health, no changes to schools, no changes to taxes.” They’ve broken every promise. This is the character of the Government.

    That’s pretty much ruling out ALP involvement in a hike.

    He couldn’t possibly get away with backflipping on those comments.

  7. It may be worse when it is an only child as there will be no grandchildren, no extension of the self into the future. I believe they have a separate word in China for parents ‘widowed’ of their only child, of which there are great numbers.

    But Mr Fuller says the HIP killed his son. No, his son’s carelessness killed him.

  8. Dee @ 1498

    Residents from across central and northern Queensland have reported seeing a huge flaming object fall from the sky and hit the ground “like a bomb”.

    What’s left of Abbott’s credibility biting the dust?

  10. And I will go so far as to say that if M Fuller was so careless and did not die while involved in the HIP, he was a high risk to die on some job somewhere, unless his attitude to OH&S was modified. It was his employer’s duty to modify his behaviour.

  13. Loophole makes it easy to avoid Budget reform pain

    TREASURER Joe Hockey billed the debt levy as a “fair” Budget reform aimed at spreading the deficit repair job evenly, but those set to be hit have already found a way to get around the Government’s quick revenue raiser.

    A loophole allows high-income earners targeted by the levy to tweak their incomes so that the debt tariff does not apply.

    http://www.news.com.au/finance/money/loophole-makes-it-easy-to-avoid-budget-reform-pain/story-e6frfmci-1226920206798

  15. Steven Grant Haby@1489

    For a supposedly articulate and intelligent city Sydney certainly does have their fair share of truly odious shock jocks.

    I live in Melbourne and the closest we would have is Mitchell and Elliot on 3AW. The recent failure of 3MTR Melbourne Talk Radio appears to indicate that Mexicans are not so easily accepting of screaming, bullying presenters.

    I think people like Jones et al will find it increasinly difficult to sell the budget message or the Abbott government narrative in recent weeks and months given the amount of anger in the community.

    The demographic of the shockjocks is angry old white men (largely) with some women and tradies.

    If you think Melbourne doesn’t have its fair share – at least – of that same demographic – I’d suggest you are fooling yourself – such attitudes don’t stop at borders.

    Jones and hadley and their employers however have certainly found a way to monitise their bigotry and I’m pretty sure many stations throughout Australia take the show as well.

    Very popular in country areas all over – not just NSW.

    Occasionally I hear them on the radio at the barber shop I’ve being going to for years and the ads they run indicate who the target audience is.

  16. Puff

    And Sweeney, a 22 year old experienced insulation installer!

    [ After the death of Fuller, government regulations required the use of plastic staples. However Sweeney possessed his own staple gun designed for metal staples and preferred to use metal staples since he found they made installation faster]

  17. There should be a broadcasting icac.

    [New South Wales coach Laurie Daley has locked horns with radio host Ray Hadley in an unwanted distraction for the Blues camp ahead of State of Origin game one.

    Daley has accused Hadley of “unsettling” his team’s Origin campaign after the league commentator reportedly demanded Blues assistant coach Matt Parish be sacked because he was having a relationship with Hadley’s estranged wife.

    In an interview with the Daily Telegraph, Daley said he was upset with Hadley for “attempting to exert his influence and power to have Parish disciplined or stood down”.

    The 2GB host is angered because his estranged wife Suzanne had been seen at NRL events with Parish.]

  18. I just had an interesting though. Next year, when PUP is likely to be a parliamentary party (because Muir is likely to group with them for party number purposes), does Palmer get a budget reply speech (like the opposition and the Greens)? Will he want it broadcast? Will he get it broadcast?

  21. slothy@1493

    bemused @ 1449

    How many deaths in each state?

    SA 0


    I remember the head of SA Consumer Affairs being asked on radio why the scheme had gone smoothly in SA and he said that firstly SA law required insulation installers to have at least a general builders license, and secondly they were aware unqualified shonks were moving into industry so the state government departs with regulatory oversight actively hunted them down and forced them out. Apparently, Victoria was also very proactive, the other states less so or not at all.

    Having had first hand experience of the lax building standards enforcement in Queensland I’m not surprised 3 of the 4 deaths occurred there.

    Yes, and 3 of those were really hard to attribute specifically to the HIP.

    The whole thing is really a big beat up and Rudd should have had the balls to say so at the time and press ahead.

  23. Rex – I really thought that Labor had comprehensively ruled out any changes to the GST and had repeated same, over and over.

    But your right with your comment above – its yet another comprehensive rule out.

    Don’t forget why the tories want the GST increased and broadened – to give business and the wealthy big tax cuts that they are ‘convinced’ they deserve.

    Such is all in line with the US model, yet again. Low wages for the poor and nothing but the best for the rich.

  24. [(Ray Hadley)reportedly demanded Blues assistant coach Matt Parish be sacked because he was having a relationship with Hadley’s estranged wife.]

    There are some people who are obnoxious in public life, and Hadley is certainly that. Some are nasty bullies to those around them and Hadley is that too. There are people who are ignorant and arrogant and reactionationary, and again Hadley ticks these boxes with a huge marker pen. There are people who abuse their power, seeking to use it beyond its proper scope and for personal aggrandizement or power. I watched Media Watch the other night and Hadley is that too.

    And then there are people for whom the expression of these traits invites the conclusion that they are utterly deranged. This claim above, if so, gets him that box too.

  25. bemused

    You have given the answer in your stats….. yes it depended on how the State Governments handled the program, would be good to also look at instances of attributable house fires.

    The problem state was QLD ( & NSW?), Rudd tried to cover up for QLD incompetence out of his self intrest?

  26. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 3:05 pm | PERMALINK
    And I will go so far as to say that if M Fuller was so careless and did not die while involved in the HIP, he was a high risk to die on some job somewhere, unless his attitude to OH&S was modified. It was his employer’s duty to modify his behaviour.]

    Yes, Fuller was totally responsible for his own death. Too gung-ho. Mr Immortality.

    As was Sweeney being responsible for his own death (thanks Dee).

    Yet the dick, Rudd, decided to take to the people and do a mea culpa.

    Rudd was no more responsible than the parents of those two kids, yet he decided to say “sorry” in totally different circumstances to when Beattie had said sorry.

    This was the pathetic advice he was getting from his wet-behind-the-ears consultants, who were preventing him (at his own behest, and to be the most understanding of Rudd’s inability to govern) from listening to his colleagues.

    Rudd should take all the blame for this shit. But Combet is also being an absolute dick feeding into the imbroglio by saying he felt bad about the deaths.

    For Christ’s sake, who didn’t feel bad about the deaths?

    It’s a load of bullshit this feel-good penitence from a bloke who was brought in after the HIP was shut-down. I mean, who never benefits from hindsight?

    And Combet woulda done this, and he woulda done that.

    Still a joke. And still stupidity from Rudd’s governance.

    Yeah, and I’m sorry for all Rudd’s supporters, but this was the absolute arse-end of a PM who’d made so many bad decisions, this was just one more.

    That you can’t see it, is your problem.

    Rudd’s inability to make a good call, his dilemmas if you like, started with the Oceanic Viking, and veered out of control after Copenhagen.

    By the time the MRRT had come into play, Rudd had lost his mojo. It was gorn. Totally.

    So, instead of having a climate change policy, instead of being humanitarian towards asylum seekers, instead of being pro-active, the government led by Rudd was being reactive.

    Played right into the neo-rightwing of the LNP.

    Luckily Gillard rescued us from this shit 3 years ago, despite a rearguard offensive by a wounded Rudd.

    And Australia got to see what a Fair Go for everyone, rich and poor, really meant.

    At least the electorate now has a yardstick by which to measure the most filthy, retro-budgets Australia has ever seen.

  28. Viewing stats

    2014: Hockey 1,636,000 Shorten 999,000

    Maybe the greater engagement & subsequent disappointment ( poor press) will result in Big Liberal poll drop!

  29. The ALP, the Greens, Palmer Party, Katter Party and any other independents must all stand together to rid this country of the lying pestilence that has started to wreck our social fabric!

    They are right to say to Abbott “bring it on”. It will be the most active campaign against a sitting government by the foot soldiers we’ve ever seen.

    In the shopping centre where I am situated I am amazed how many are saying “we want another election”. Ten times more than the opposition to PM JG over the 3 years leading into the 2013 election.

    Abbott appears to be burnt toast in Queensland.

  31. Does Greg Combet go close to saying Harvey Norman defrauded the Commonwealth, looks like it to me.

    [He said he inherited a scheme which had been widely exploited – overseas call centres were cold-calling households to sell insulation and then employing untrained university students to install it, while companies with no obvious connection to the insulation industry, including retailer Harvey Norman, were turning their hand to the trade.
    “I couldn’t imagine Harvey Norman through a direct workforce installing installation in people’s roofs,” Mr Combet said.
    “I just felt in contemplating a new scheme .. the risks were too substantial and there were clearly some unscrupulous people in the community … who were quite attune to ways to defraud the Commonwealth and I was not going to have it.”]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/home-insulation-scheme-crippled-by-dodgy-installers-greg-combet-20140516-zrep7.html#ixzz31r3DNkZC

  34. I reckon Abbott is more scared of his own ministers rolling him than the electorate.

    Perhaps, but this will only happen if the polls shift markedly against the LNP (which may well happen, bring on the post-budget polls!), but even if the LNP enter the danger zone of 45% 2PP and below, who would replace Abbott?

    This budget mess has firmly tarred Hockey – if the fudget goes down badly then it’s taking Hockey down with it.

    Turnbull has no hope. The fraudit and the fudget are proof the tea party nut jobs have firm control at the moment – they may ditch Abbott to save their bacon, but they’re not turning to Turnbull.

    Morrison? Bishop? Perhaps.

  35. ausdavo

    [They are right to say to Abbott “bring it on”. It will be the most active campaign against a sitting government by the foot soldiers we’ve ever seen.

    In the shopping centre where I am situated I am amazed how many are saying “we want another election”. Ten times more than the opposition to PM JG over the 3 years leading into the 2013 election.

    Abbott appears to be burnt toast in Queensland.]

    My feelings as well voters did not expect what they got.

    Did you see the link I posted this morning from the SMH?

    While the galleries were applauding Labor Pyne was giving the B Bishop a sign to stand in her chair so the applause would stop.

    Pathetic losers!

  36. Where’s the money Joe?

    “The federal budget appears to have a gaping hole: it has failed to set aside enough funds for what is likely to be a record public sector redundancy bill.

    Despite outlining the most ambitious job-shedding program in 15 years, the Abbott government has assumed most staff will leave of their own accord without seeking a payout.”

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/governments-public-sector-redundancy-budget-is-missing-millions-20140515-zrcq2.html

    Maybe Tony intends to stare them out to save the payouts!

  39. sceptic

    Unlike us the Libs in their comfort would not even watch the speech of the Labor leader.

    Beneath them!

  40. Jackol

    I look at Julie Bishop with the flash new hairstyle and the perpetual smirk while Shorten spoke last night, and I think she would be there, like Madame DeFarge with her knitting needles, just waiting to pounce.

  41. 1519

    It looks like the Abbott Government may well commemorate the centenary year of the Cook (Liberal) Government`s 1914 double dissolution (the first double dissolution) and defeat with a double dissolution defeat of their own, jest like the commemorated the centenary of the 1913 election of the Cook Government with their own election victory. I do think that Abbott would get Cooked at a DD.

  42. ruawake

    “I couldn’t imagine Harvey Norman through a direct workforce installing installation in people’s roofs,” Mr Combet said.

    Harvey Norman has an Home Improvements devision, using subbies to install kitchens & bathrooms, no doubt couldn’t resist the easy money for the Home Insulation scheme.

    Probably upsold the “clients” for other items while he was at it.

  44. I think Bishop and Morrison have been very careful to not put themselves in the firing-line. Hockey is indeed tarred, and Turnbull has stupidly put himself out of the running by aligning himself with the public message.

  45. Just on the Pink Batts issue:

    When all the grubs who fought for contracts they were employing people with no skills or very few.

    Those overnight companies are responsible to those they employ not the Government.

    I had my place done at the time and employed a company which has been in business for twenty odd years to do it.

    I was more than happy with them.

  47. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@1502

    Mr Fuller is imo, is trying to make meaning from his son’s meaningless death, a death caused by his own son’s flagrant disregard of OH&S rules. His son was a qualified electrician who had a brush with death a week before he repeated the action which then killed him.

    Mr Fuller, take my sincere advice. Go home, give your son the honour of your profound un-distracted grief. Remember him. It is all that is left.

    I think you are pretty much on the mark there.

    I would add one thing. If he wants to find some meaning in his son’s death, it is as a warning to others. He could campaign for better OH&S and observance of the rules. That is how quite a few people cope with such things. I speak from personal experience.

  48. Rudd was just as naive as those insulation installers. He believed in his own immortality.

    Yet that’s the province of youth. They think their risk-taking behaviour will have no consequences. They don’t think of the grief of their own family.

    Rudd believed he could do no wrong; he believed the atmospheric quality of the popularity polls. Despite his knowledge that they could crash just as spectacularly, he chose to rely on them.

    Just as he didn’t think of the grief of his Labor family.

    When Rudd didn’t get totalled over Oceanic Viking, because everyone was still shell-shocked by Howard’s treatment of AS in general, and Hicks, and Habib, and Haneef, in particular, he thought he was invincible. He didn’t think he had to fix it.

    After Copenhagen, when News Ltd turned on him and reported his ‘ratfucker’ description of the Chinese, his best friends, he went into a catatonic state.

    And never recovered.

    Sure he had win over the health debate, but that wasn’t enough to fix his decline.

    The rest is history.

    Now we need to take the bull by the horns.

    Much as I’m not impressed by Shorten, he did well last night. And I agree with all the things he said Labor won’t support in this despicable budget.

    Go early, go hard, Shorten. And don’t let up.

  49. So Hadley wants the assistant coach to NSW stood down because he is incapable of keeping a women.

    Priceless!

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