Easter followed by the Anzac Day long weekend has resulted in a lean period for polling, with Newspoll very unusually having gone three weeks without. In an off week for Morgan’s fortnightly publication schedule, that just leaves Essential Research for this week, which I have so far neglected to cover. The poll has Labor’s lead up from 51-49 to 52-48, which is Labor’s best result from Essential since two weeks out from the 2010 election. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 40% and Labor up one to 38%, while the Greens are on 10%, losing the point that brought them to a temporary peak last week. Palmer United is steady on 5%, which is two points higher than four weeks ago. Other questions in this week’s Essential survey were to do with political party membership (26% say Bill Shorten’s proposed Labor membership rules would make them more likely to vote for the party versus 6% less likely and 59% make no difference; 72% say they would never consider joining a party versus 15% who say they would; 60% won’t confess to having ever engaged in party political activity), the fighter jets purchase (30% approve, 52% disapprove), republicanism (33% for and 42% against, compared with 39% and 35% in June 2012; 46% think a republic likely one day versus 37% for unlikely; 54% approve of the idea of Prince William being King of Australia versus only 26% who don’t).
As for BludgerTrack, Essential Research has had next to no effect on two-party preferred, and none at all on the seat projection, either nationally or any particular state. However, there is movement on the primary vote as the effects of Nielsen’s Greens outlier of three weeks ago fade off. That still leaves the Greens at an historically high 12.0%, but it still remains to be seen if they are trending back to the 9% territory they have tended to occupy for the past few years, or if they find a new equilibrium at a higher level. The Coalition is also down on the primary vote, which is beginning to look like a trend (it is only by the grace of rounding that its score still has a four in front of it). This cancels out the effect of the Greens’ drop on the two-party preferred vote for Labor, whose primary vote has little changed. Palmer United’s slight gain to 4.6% puts them at their highest level so far this year. There haven’t been any new leadership ratings since Nielsen, so the results displayed are as they were a fortnight ago.
My interest in inter-generational equity has been heightened by some comments made by Thomas Piketty and others at this discussion of his book. To sum up analysis of two centuries worth of data, if you were born between 1948 and 1965, you really were amazingly lucky. No generation before or since has any chance of enjoying as good a lifestyle.
This is a good video for those unlikely to read the book.
https://ipk.nyu.edu/news/83-capital-in-the-21st-century
Fran,
Obviously, “Love” is the drug you are thinking of!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0n3OepDn5GU
GG
The Split Infinitive Squad remain ever vigilant.
Thanks ‘fess
Yes much more pleasant time of year. Trust you are keeping well.
I better head into work…have to avoid a CoA as being a slacker… 😀
paroti,
Not to forget, the Errant Apostrophes’.
You never expect the Errant Apostrophes’!
Confessions 1850
No, not to this extent. If you really believe that, you should see the Piketty video for the refutation. The generation before the baby boom did not screw them over. They paid a lot in tax to give the next generation free education. Then the cycle stopped. The baby boom generation is actually much richer than the generation that went before them, not only those who came after. I am one of them too (born early 60s). We have paid far less in tax than the generation before us (in % terms).
Must be off.
RD
OTOH, Jennifer Podesta who stood as an independent in Indi last year:
http://nofibs.com.au/2014/05/02/indivotes-independent-candidate-jenpodesta-explains-why-shes-joined-the-alp/
[After letting the dust settle, in November last year I made the decision to join the ALP. Having expressed some strong concerns during the campaign about the keenly partisan nature of politics in Australia, and having already left the Greens in early 2013, the decision to join Labor was not taken lightly. Following are some thoughts about why I decided to do so.
Whilst I think the voice of independents and minor parties remains important to providing dissenting views and diverse voices, I have come to believe it is the nature of Australian politics to be a strong two-party system and it is these two parties that have and will continue to have the greatest capacity to shape the future of our nation. I feel I have the skills, experience and passion to contribute to this future and that I can best do that as a member of the Labor Party.]
The political duopoly essentially share the same neoliberal view of the world, as evidenced by their support for keeping and implementing billions of dollars in corporate tax concessions.
Voting for, and supporting, the political duopoly entrenches the status quo of enriching and protecting the wealthy.
Not much will change in our society and community if people keep voting for business as usual.
It is more important than ever for ordinary citizens to vote for independents and minor parties who have their best interests at heart.
It is more important than ever for ordinary citizens to vote for independents and minor parties who are willing to work for a more just, fairer and compassionate society rather than for power for its own sake.
Rex Douglas
[Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott were fantastic in the last parliament in how they acted with common sense, free of restraint.]
What was worthy about these two was not their common sense but their good sense.
That which is common is rarely sense, and that which is sense is most uncommon.
It’s a nice day when an opportunity for excursion into antimetabole presents itself. 😉
[WWP,
It’s simpler to start with your conclusion and then make the evidence fit.]
Yeah I agree. Maybe all the evidence will lead to an appropriate negative finding against the gentleman in question, but the rabid unmeasured abuse says a lot about the abuser.
A longer discussion of the Piketty book is here. I highly recommend it to smash a few myths about wealth and equity, including the non-truism Confessions quoted.
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2014/04/video-piketty-krugman-stiglitz-and-durlauf-on-capital-in-the-twenty-first-century.html
Without wanting to excite people
[Former prime minister Kevin Rudd has rejected speculation he could be appointed as the UN’s special envoy on Syria, with his spokeswoman suggesting he lacked the required language skills for the job.
“The UN has not asked Mr Rudd to be appointed as UN special envoy on Syria,” said a spokeswoman for Mr Rudd, responding to a report in the British newspaper The Guardian.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/rudd-rejects-un-syria-speculation-20140503-zr3uy.html#ixzz30cccR39X
Diogenes
[Cognitive dissonance is universal. And that includes among Greens.]
Indeed. Although one can’t prove it, cognitive dissonance may well be one of the ways people avoid debilitating distress. Like most adaptations however, there’s no free lunch, and looking the other way can have disastrous consequences. Being mindful when it’s important and shrugging when one must is no easy thing to do, and may well be impossible.
Socrates:
Thanks for the video link. When I said yonks, I was referring to at least the time that I’ve been voting – nearly 20 years. I can’t comment about the period before that.
Murdoch media: “Confusion over why PM cancelled Bali trip”
[LABOR is demanding to know why Prime Minister Tony Abbott cancelled a planned trip to Indonesia, accusing him of further straining the relationship with one of Australia’s closest neighbours.
Arrangements were being made for Mr Abbott to visit Bali early next week, where he’d been invited by Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to attend a regional forum on open government.
But the trip has been put on ice, with speculation an asylum seeker operation underway northeast of Australia could be the reason behind the last-minute decision.
The prime minister’s office has not confirmed why the visit was junked just days before the two leaders were expected to meet on the sidelines of the conference.
The invitation was seen as an opportunity to salvage relations damaged after a spying scandal late last year that saw Indonesia suspend high-level co-operation with Australia.]
http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/abbott-an-embarrassment-greens-say/story-e6frfku9-1226904107194
sprocket_
I hope he does get the gig. Government on the front foot , about to retake Homs after rebels abandon it . The main fighters are Al Qaeda loons , including one lot so crazy even Al Qaeda disowned them.
A bit of “programmatic specificity’ from Rudd and it will be peace all round in two shakes of a lamb’s tail. 🙂
peg #1857
Minor parties are as intolerant in practice as major parties.
The independent is restrained only by his own brain.
I was thinking of going to the races today for the Hawkesbury Cup meeting, just watching on TV, everyone out there is freezing.
Global warming is taking a big breather obviously, the Greens…one of their best.
[The state government has been accused of pork barrelling as schools in marginal Victorian electorates have reaped millions of dollars in state government handouts in recent months – despite never asking for capital funding – while needy schools go begging.
Twenty-two of the 31 schools to receive funding in the lead-up to Tuesday’s budget are in marginal electorates. Eight are in safe Coalition seats and just one is in a safe Labor seat.
Critics have described the focus on schools in marginal seats – ahead of those on the waiting list with structural problems and capacity constraints – as a blatant bid to “claw back” support in the lead-up to the November election.]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/schools-in-marginal-seats-reap-millions-in-budget-20140502-zr3if.html#ixzz30ch1oPbH
[Eleven new schools for students in outer growth areas will be announced as part of Tuesday’s state budget, under a public-private-partnership that experts warn could be “politically successful but financially dubious” for the Napthine Government.
Using private sector investment to build public schools was initially trialled under the former Brumby Labor government, which built 12 schools on 11 different sites, including Cranbourne East Secondary College, Derrimut Primary School, and Point Cook Prep-Year 9 College.
Under Labor’s system, a private consortium – Axiom Education Victoria – maintains and manages the buildings over a 26-year contract, while the government repays the costs in quarterly instalments.
The Coalition will expand on that model….]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victorian-government-budgets-for-11-new-schools-20140502-37nvb.html#ixzz30ciMg6vL
What will be the consequences of the Massacre in the city of Odessa last night ”
__________
According to several reports,inc BBC, right-wing neo-fascists from the Pravy Sector came from Kiev and attacked the House of Trade Unions,and then used fire bombs to set it alight
Those who were inside were trapped on the roof and many perished in the inferno..some reports speak of 38 deaths and many injured
They were pro-Russians or local leftists from unions
In recent days in Kiev the neo-fascists”Svoboda: group have ransacked the officesof left wing groups and unions and assaulated people there at the time in their ongoing campaign against any opposition
Oddessa has a famous place in Russian history as the scene of the infamous massacre of workers by Czarist troops during a strike and rally in the revolution of 1905.and as the scene of the famous Eisenstein film
“Battleship Potempkin” which looked the famous mutiny on board a czarist battleship off shore
see below
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27259620
@1868
Liberals accused Labor of doing pork barreling in seats with the National Broadband Network, I am not surprised anymore what liberals do now.
[ This COA is not so much “screw the poor” as “screw the young”. It is symptomatic of the aged and obsolete political culture that produces members on both sides. ]
Too simplistic.
The 17% cut proposed to what is the current minimum wage and its flow through to others look pretty much like screw the poor to me. Cuts to pensions – indexation etc will hit the poor and disabled heavily as well.
Those born after 1965 are certainly going to cop it in a range ways but so are the poor.
Voters can stop this nonsense being introduced in the first place by chucking abbott out – its up to voters.
Another thing is those born after 1965 are already moving into senior positions across all sectors and will soon be in very senior political positions. Even if abbott gets this nonsense through – doubtful – the coming generation are not obliged to retain such measures. They will change all sorts of things.
The fact that the big ticket tax expenditure items were not even looked at by CoA indicates, surprise surprise that the exercise was more “protect the rich and the top end of town”.
Who would have thought they would do that!
deb – And two Ukrainian helicopters shot down in the last 24hrs.
Trouble accelerating.
Centre@1867
If you are serious, then you are confusing weather with climate.
[zoidlord
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 2:30 pm | PERMALINK
@1868
Liberals accused Labor of doing pork barreling in seats with the National Broadband Network, I am not surprised anymore what liberals do now.]
Turnbull’s version of the NBN, where some get fibre and others make do with copper, will easily facilitate pork barrelling by the coalition.
don
Let’s call a spade a spade.
It’s freezing out there in just the first week of May.
You have to look at the trend they say, well the trend is swinging back to ZERO climate change big time 😀
debionay
On television reports the BBC has only said pro Russian and pro Ukraine.
Nothing about neo fascists. Largely because the BBC don’t know who the forces are except when they say Ukraine police, army or Russian army.
So I would say you are talking about a minority that has done this appalling act. Whoever they are its indeed a criminal massacre.
debionay
Here is the US reaction
[The United States has condemned the “senseless” violence that left at least 31 people dead in south-west of Ukraine on Friday.
Dozens of people were killed by a fire at a building that pro-Russians had taken over in the port city of Odessa.]
Do you disagree with this US statement?
Or do you still contend its all puppets of the US?
deblonay believes that putting “neo” in front of a word makes his assertions more authoritative.
It’s like Tony Abbott reducing international diplomacy to “goodies” and “baddies”. It’s the most his mind can cope with.
1965 – the cut off year.
Coincidence that its the year Hockey was born??
Hockey was born in 1965 and will not be elegible for the age pension until he is 70 under his new rules. However, he can collect a very generous pension from whatever age he is when leaves Parliament. In the event that the Coalition loses Government in 2016, Joe Hockey will probably leave Parliament shortly thereafter and be entitled to a very generous, fully indexed, non-means-tested pension for life from the age of 51.
CTar1
[And two Ukrainian helicopters shot down in the last 24hrs]
Update. Tally now three shot down .Shooting down the two Hinds suggests pretty serious firepower. 50 cal bullets “bounce”.
After my time with a russkiy boss I am not surprised. Anyone invading the former soviet union on land would be even more crazy than Napoleon and ‘Dolph . My high school had cadets and an armoury under the library with about 1,000 303’s and a dozen bren guns. Thought that was pretty out there but compared to what military training USSR school kids had it was Kumbaya.
[The prime minister’s office has not confirmed why the visit was junked just days before the two leaders were expected to meet on the sidelines of the conference.]
It’s starting to look like he was told not to come, after they very possibly once again breached Indonesian waters.
This was supposed to be a conciliatory trip, a special invitation, a sign of goodwill, and Abbott appears to have thrown it back in SBY’s face.
This applies whether he made his own decision not to go or whether it was forced upon him.
SBY went out on a limb, lost a lot of face in trying to be neighbourly, and look how Abbott treated him.
A disgraceful episode.
For those that missed it.
@Simon_Cullen: RT @KJBar: An asylum seeker boat seen in Australian waters. Story by @nickbutterly http://t.co/f7u7AbMiTV
The invitation was “glory in the highest” in the Mordor press as a sign the Indonesians had backed down and rolled over to alpha dog Abbott. This last minute cancellation for the bullshit reasons given suggest something pretty serious going on in the background,
Maybe we’ll be able to find out what really happened from the Indonesian press.
1853
It is good to infinitive split!
[Bushfire Bill
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 3:07 pm | PERMALINK
…SBY went out on a limb, lost a lot of face in trying to be neighbourly, and look how Abbott treated him.
A disgraceful episode.]
And ‘government sources’ claimed that if Abbott went to Bali while the navy was dealing with an asylum seeker boat, it would embarrass SBY.
Another job for JBishop to try and sort out the mess with Indonesia.
Whatever the reasons for Abbott’s not going the condescending “spare SBY embarrassment” line won’t go down well at all. Probably said with an eye to Aus consumption “geez, that Tony’s magnanimous in victory”.
BTW is there anything on the Chinese reaction to Abbott’s “I’ve got some good news about the plane” effort?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-to-crack-down-on-dole-but-will-avoid-harshest-recommendation-20140503-zr3t8.html
Abbott will avoid the harshest recommendations re the unemployed. Give the man a gold star on his forehead!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-to-crack-down-on-dole-but-will-avoid-harshest-recommendation-20140503-zr3t8.html
Abbott will avoid the harshest recommendations re the unemployed. Give the man a gold star on his forehead!
The mention of J Bishop above reminds me that she has been keeping a low profile lately. Distancing herself from Abbott?
GG, I hope you told your story to the RC, and the experience proved beneficial.
One would have to be pretty ignorant to not know of the fascist-groups that operate openly in Kiev and elsewhere
The US aupported coup,which caused this crisis($5 billion s dollars worth) used them as their storm-troops
Their attack on the Oddessa Trade Union building would be in their line of business
If the people in the building were russian-speakers and opponents of the Right ,there will obviously be a major response from the Russian Govt,and also from people in Odessa who have lost people in the disaster…and the word “neo” simple means new as distinct from the old Nazis of whom these people once had a terrible experience
Hockey’s pension will be $275,000 per year plus benefits all indexed. No asset test.
Abbott would be on $300,000.
These are the people telling pensioners they must lift some of the burden.
SCUM
http://www.opednews.com/articles/Ukraine-s-Inconvenient-Neo-by-Robert-Parry-Hate-Groups-Neo-Nazis_Me
A US site looks at the “inconvienant truth” about the neo-fascists in the Ukraine today
debionay
Again with they are all fascists. You do not know this. You only have some information on some.
You have built a whole edifice out of this denying those people who are not fascists their role.
Again with the make believe American coup.
Neither of which explains pro Russian forces ability to shoot down helicopters
Pegasus,
They’re begging for forgiveness from the electorate for their three year ideological war for the Glory of Neo-Kennetism. They’re “me-too-ing” many of Labor’s major policies going into the election (the fact that many look superficial and insincere). If the wheels on the Liberal wagon hadn’t well and truly fallen off some time ago I might have thought it would gain them something. the Liberals here are such an embarrassment I could swear they don’t want to be elected.
I’ve been invited to the first campaign meeting of the new Labor candidate for Croydon so I guess I’ll see if my perspective is matched by others
Mud Bog,
I don’t feel any maudling need to dwell on the past. I like to move on and take the next opportunity that life presents.
You should try it some time.
@1884
Abbott has lost control of boats.