BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor

The only poll this week was Labor’s best result from Essential Research in nearly four years, but it hasn’t made much difference to the weekly poll aggregate.

Easter followed by the Anzac Day long weekend has resulted in a lean period for polling, with Newspoll very unusually having gone three weeks without. In an off week for Morgan’s fortnightly publication schedule, that just leaves Essential Research for this week, which I have so far neglected to cover. The poll has Labor’s lead up from 51-49 to 52-48, which is Labor’s best result from Essential since two weeks out from the 2010 election. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 40% and Labor up one to 38%, while the Greens are on 10%, losing the point that brought them to a temporary peak last week. Palmer United is steady on 5%, which is two points higher than four weeks ago. Other questions in this week’s Essential survey were to do with political party membership (26% say Bill Shorten’s proposed Labor membership rules would make them more likely to vote for the party versus 6% less likely and 59% make no difference; 72% say they would never consider joining a party versus 15% who say they would; 60% won’t confess to having ever engaged in party political activity), the fighter jets purchase (30% approve, 52% disapprove), republicanism (33% for and 42% against, compared with 39% and 35% in June 2012; 46% think a republic likely one day versus 37% for unlikely; 54% approve of the idea of Prince William being King of Australia versus only 26% who don’t).

As for BludgerTrack, Essential Research has had next to no effect on two-party preferred, and none at all on the seat projection, either nationally or any particular state. However, there is movement on the primary vote as the effects of Nielsen’s Greens outlier of three weeks ago fade off. That still leaves the Greens at an historically high 12.0%, but it still remains to be seen if they are trending back to the 9% territory they have tended to occupy for the past few years, or if they find a new equilibrium at a higher level. The Coalition is also down on the primary vote, which is beginning to look like a trend (it is only by the grace of rounding that its score still has a four in front of it). This cancels out the effect of the Greens’ drop on the two-party preferred vote for Labor, whose primary vote has little changed. Palmer United’s slight gain to 4.6% puts them at their highest level so far this year. There haven’t been any new leadership ratings since Nielsen, so the results displayed are as they were a fortnight ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,311 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor”

  1. Bushfire bills rant deserves to be on the first page

    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Wednesday, April 30, 2014 at 11:44 pm | Permalink

    Love some of the rationalizations coming in tonight.

    Abbott makes it all seem so easy to “fix” everything… hundreds of policies ready to go, fully costed, adults about to take over, axe the tax, stop the boats, support health, education, care for the diasbled fully, “unity tickets” etc. etc.

    Then, when the shit hits the fan, his mates go into bat for him telling us how BAD it all turned out to be, how DIFFICULT the task ahead of us truly is, how “the national interest” demands that he ditch all his promises, it supercedes everything,… promises? What are promises? Just breaths of air, here today, gone tomorrow. As Abbott himself puts it, “That was then. This is now.”

    “It’s sometimes better to seek forgiveness than ask permission” is another one of his aphorisms, his little pearls of wisdom. So he invents the crazy, inverse eligibility PPL scheme. He brings back knighthoods. He dreams up levies. He tries to rob schools of what not only Gillard but HE himself promised them. Then he backflips.

    No poor sod know WHAT he’s doing. He’s had more policies than AMP. They are ditched, or reinforced, then ditched anyway, at his own whim.

    He’s running a rabble. TWO WEEKS before the Budget is due his big ace in the hole, the Deficit Levy, goes belly up. He’s now ditching his PPL scheme. He gets Mark Simkin to waffles about how Abbott is making sacrifices…. sacrifices only of pride, not of any substance whatsoever, if truth be told.

    He promised – there’s that word… “promised” – “No surprises. No excuses.” He’s been bloody-well making excuses, parsing his own words, playing games with the people who voted for him, since day bloody #1.

    He’s fouled his own, and his government’s nest with his maniacal promises, his hubris, his mistaken belief that Rupert Murdoch will save him every time and his outright lies.

    And no comes the “forgiveness”bit.

    He told us he wouldn’t seek it. There’d be no excuses. But he’s seeking it anyway. The man has no guts, no class and not a shred of decency or honesty left in him (and that’s if he ever had any).

    Any halfwit could have seen that he was a bullshit artist, right from the start. The punters were warned, but like mugs falling for a Nigerian scam, they convinced themselves that it was going to be the other poor, dumb bastard who got swindled by the slogans, the intimidation, the wrecking and the lies.

    Now we find his party rorted the system of political donations to get the money it needed to print those crappy brochures and make those false promises. The whole thing has been exposed as an empty shell of deceit, venality, cronyism and outright criminality.

    He – and his party who followed him – brought this precisely upon themselves. They deserve no credit or sympathy, no understanding or cutting of slack in their favour. Their biggest promise was that they would keep their promises, and they have delivered practically the opposite, making the excuses they said they would never make and springing the surprises they said they would never spring.

    It’s no good to talk about what’s good for the country when the people talking about it are a bunch of pimps and spivs, cynically using the people’s trust as their disposable plaything, then getting all noble and emotional, appealing to national pride and honour, when they are found out.

    THEY are the dishonourable ones. THEY took on the responsibility for running the country. And they’ve f**ked it, f**ked themselves and f**ked us all roundly and squarely.

    They asked for no sympathy by promising “no excuses”. So be it. Let them at least stick to THAT promise and take the consequences they tols us they would deserve if they broke it.

  2. Edwina StJohn
    Posted Wednesday, April 30, 2014 at 9:05 pm | Permalink

    Bible supports work for the dole:

    Thessalonians 3:10

    For even when we were with you, we would give you this command: If anyone is not willing to work, let him not eat.

    Probable not fashionable to point this out, but that publication was also used to support apartheid.

  3. Before the election it was budget neutral. More lies.

    On Wednesday, Mr Abbott confirmed he would reduce the $150,000 upper limit on the scheme to $100,000, just a day after saying such a change would deliver only “very modest” savings to the budget. He blamed a “budget emergency” created by the former Labor government for the shift.

  4. Libertarians live in a fantacy world:

    http://www.salon.com/2014/04/30/thomas_piketty_shrugged_how_the_french_economist_dashed_libertarians_ayn_randian_fantasies_partner/

    We certainly do have a budget emergency; best solved by voting the clowns out:

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-climate-policies-a-40-billion-budget-slug-says-climate-institute-20140430-zr1yh.html#ixzz30NOXqWBt

    I think it’s the obesity of the PPL for women of merit, attacking pension, paying miners subsidies instead of taxing them etc., but his guy reckons because all of them are a bunch of crooks.

    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2014/04/30/abbotts-plea-falls-deaf-ears-working-head/.U2DgQXuorDw.twitter

    Got a spare $11,000. You too can visit ICAC

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/30/11000-for-breakfast-with-tony-abbott-access-to-senior-ministers-chiefs-of-staff

    On the voices in the winderness:

    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/04/30/on-progressive-econoblogging/?_php=true&_type=blogs&smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&seid=auto&_r=0

    A new conga line of rent seekers lining up:

    http://johnmenadue.com/blog/?p=1544

  9. Thank you, Bushfire Bill, for expressing so beautifully what so many of us feel.
    Many of our fellow Australians, sadly, have yet to wake up. They actually belief the debt and deficit disaster rhetoric. People in my electorate of Lindsay – people who will be badly hurt under Abbott – tell me that Australia was ‘going down the gurgler’ under Labor. The rhetoric has triumphed over the facts. I’m not sure how we get them to see the facts when the msm still conspire to protect those who believe themselves born to rule.

  11. Phil Coorey dropped plenty of hints that the TonyTax might be dropped

    Mr Abbott is being pulverised for breaking a no-new-tax promise and people close to him counselled the government may still drop the tax hike plan and opt for another solution.

    …..,,,

    Mr Abbott defended his proposed tax hike as a necessary short-term measure.

    “Over time, yes of course we want lower, simpler, fairer taxes. Over time, we want fairer, better services. That’s exactly what we’ll get, but there do have to be difficult decisions in the short term,’’ he said.

    Focus group polling conducted for one of the major parties on Tuesday night found voters angry at the broken promise and “insulted” by Mr Abbott describing it as a levy not a tax, and claiming it would not be a broken promise because it was not permanent.

    The tax hike will last as long as four years.

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/struggle_over_deficit_tax_KcIGKOPfkaOmBdJl0Oxb9K

  12. BB Great overview of the Abbott responsibility for his grab at power.

    Especially your view of those who voted for him… “The punters were warned, but like mugs falling for a Nigerian scam, they convinced themselves that it was going to be the other poor, dumb bastard who got swindled by the slogans, the intimidation, the wrecking and the lies”.

    So many of us did speak out through the years leading up to the 2013 election warning voters of the disaster that Abbott presented. But the naysayers came out regurgitating the bucketfuls of lies heaped on PM JG and the ALP Government who the rest of the world knew were doing it right.

    Many naysayers are still doing extolling the virtues of Abbott. The Press has a lot to answer for but most of all the “Nigerian” swindler was able to convince sufficient voters he was another “honest John”.

    BB – yes what a con, you’re right that he deserves no leniency whatsoever. Sadly, he’s wrecking our nation.

  13. Morning all.

    Police release a recording of a phone in on the night Buswell crashed up his car.

    “The bloke was dolled up to the nines and he clearly couldn’t stand on his own two feet,” the caller tells police.

    “He was driving all over the place on Roberts Road.

    “He was taking up two lanes, nearly hitting everything on the side as well.

    “When we pulled up behind him out the front of his premises, his whole front bumper was hanging off, the whole front end looked like it had been pretty smashed up.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-30/police-release-audio-of-emergency-call-about-troy-buswell27s-n/5422192

    He must’ve been pretty drunk.

  14. confessions

    Isn’t the recording proof of knowledge by the authorities right from the night it occurred?

    More to the point – proof of a very big “cover-up” attempt?

  15. The world is fkut.

    Dr Kerry Howell, associate professor at Plymouth University’s Marine Institute, who took part in the study, said: “This survey has shown that human litter is present in all marine habitats, from beaches to the most remote and deepest parts of the oceans. Most of the deep sea remains unexplored by humans and these are our first visits to many of these sites, but we were shocked to find that our rubbish has got there before us.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/apr/30/human-litter-european-seafloor-survey-ocean-deep?CMP=twt_gu

  16. The Captain’s Pick it would appear to be

    Tony Abbott has moved to head off an internal party-room meltdown over a new deficit tax by instructing his top two economic ministers to hit the phones selling the case directly to Coalition MPs ahead of the budget.
    The decision, which by necessity compromises the government’s budget confidentiality, came as backbenchers complained of being “ambushed” by the new tax idea, and of being left with nothing to tell voters incensed by what would be a clear breach of a Coalition promise not to increase taxes.
    The internal sales jobs were handed out as Mr Abbott bowed to rising backbench unhappiness, which is threatening to turn into outright rebellion in the Senate, over his super-generous paid parental leave scheme.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-moves-to-quell-mps-deficit-tax-anger-20140430-zr1w0.html#ixzz30PMK7IBh

  18. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Well if you give the task to a bunch of pet “drys” this is what you’ll get.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/canberra-to-be-cut-to-bone-in-audit-report-20140430-zr20a.html
    If they pull this off they will deserve credit.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/30/fuel-tax-credit-firmly-in-sights-of-coalitions-budget-razor-gang
    Oh dear! The rabid Bernardi is a bit upset by his leader.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/30/t
    This is how they do post graduate work after schooling at the Liberal incubators.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/welcome-to-fight-club-young-liberal-style-20140430-37i2m.html
    Peter FitzSimons on the power of protest via sport.
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/basketball/los-angeles-clippers-add-to-sports-noble-history-of-protest-20140430-zr1xd.html
    This sounds very much like a wing and a prayer.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/westconnex-prediction-buses-will-double-in-speed-20140430-zr1ri.html
    Kate McClymont with yesterday’s ICAC revelations.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/chris-hartcher-sought-illegal-donations-from-nathan-tinkler-icac-20140430-zr1xp.html
    Jonathon Swan on Abbott’s and Hockey’s unhealthy obsession with debt.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/economists-sceptical-of-abbotts-budget-emergency-20140430-zr1uo.html
    Mark Kenny on Abbott’s panicky actions of late.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-moves-to-quell-mps-deficit-tax-anger-20140430-zr1w0.html

  20. Section 2 . . .

    This is foul!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/breakfast-with-tony-abbott-and-friends–for-11000-20140430-zr20p.html
    More trouble for Napthine.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/premier-denis-napthine-had-direct-involvement-in-midfield-meat-expansion-20140430-37i28.html
    Look at these budgetary numbers!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-climate-policies-a-40-billion-budget-slug-says-climate-institute-20140430-zr1yh.html
    MUST SEE! David Pope shows us the real Abbott.

    Ron Tandberg with the canonisations.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html?selectedImage=3
    There’s SO much to see in this David Rowe effort!
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  23. Climate change illustrated by horrendous floods of rain in Florida.

    http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/04/30/record_rains_and_extreme_weather_florida_s_floods_are_linked_to_climate.html

    The National Weather Service called the event “historic.” The official rain gauge at Pensacola’s airport measured an astonishing 5.68 inches in a single hour before it failed around 10 p.m. Tuesday. An analysis by the NWS office in Mobile, Alabama, estimated that single hour to be a 1-in-200- to 1-in-500-year event. The official rain gauge and weather radar both gave out, presumably from lightning strikes, so we might never know exactly how much rain fell Tuesday night. Still, several unofficial rain gauges measured impressive totals.

  24. And from the Land of the Free –

    WTF????
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/04/30/bundy-militiamen-stop-drivers-checkpoints-demand-proof-residency/
    Being pregnant in Tennessee.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/04/30/damn-tough-pregnant-woman-tennessee/
    Jon Stewart rips the NRA gun nuts and the NBA bigot.
    http://crooksandliars.com/cltv/2014/04/jon-stewart-rips-paranoid-gun-nuts
    They can’t even execute people properly.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/04/30/oklahoma-death-penalty_n_5237668.html
    Here is Rachael Maddow’s emotional take on the issue.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/04/30/rachel-maddow-oklahoma-execution_n_5239048.html

  26. We’ve had two years of declining real per capita disposable income. We’re about to have some more:

    http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/05/daily-iron-ore-price-update-dream-is-over/

    http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/05/us-gdp-crashes-fed-tapers-aussie-roars/

    This means the budget will remain under stress even if there is no PPL, even if the carbon tax is not repealed, even if we don’t hike defence spending.

    Not only that, if iron ore royalties stop growing (the price is falling but the volume may still increase), there will be less money available to the States, worsening the effects of very slow growth in GST revenues.

    The LNP are going to have to increase taxes simply to stop the deficit growing, let alone bring it into balance.

    In the meantime, declining real per capita disposable income means we should expect to see weak demand for labour and further rises in unemployment.

    This is all looking too hard for the Tories.

  27. It seems almost quaint to hanker for the days when John Cain paid for his own postage stamps, Bob Brown tried to change the world while owning only one suit and John Howard holidayed every summer at the Hawks Nest motel.

    Then again, why not? It would be better than the venal and self-interested public officials who have hijacked the Australian polity.

    It is no wonder, then, that when pensioners, single parents, the disabled, or even Joe Average taxpayers are asked to tighten their belts and think what they can do for the country, they spit back: “What about me?”

    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2014/04/30/abbotts-plea-falls-deaf-ears-working-head/

  28. Morning all. Thanks BK. You would have to offer me a lot more than $11k to start my day having breakfast with someone as unpleasant as Tony Abbott.

    What is second prize? Breakfast with Sophie Mirrabella?

  29. BK

    They can’t even execute people properly.

    Saw a paper yesterday with a real wtf? headline for an article about that, “Man dies in botched execution”.

  30. Morning all

    BK

    Paul Murray on Sky last night, said fhat he has been told that the mining lobby have already been working the phones in rsponse fo the diesel fuel subsidy. The govt is already being threatened in the same way Labor was when they announced the mining tax.

  31. briefly

    It seems that the solution being suggested by the Commission of Toecutters is to push expensive programs such as Health back on to the States.

    Feds balance budget.
    States in trouble as voters demand better services.

    Perhaps the Coalition would prefer not to be in power in these “difficult times”. :/

  33. So the rumours are that the audit report suggests giving more Commonwealth power to the states. Considering recent revelations at ICAC that suggestion is completely insane…

  34. guytaur

    I watched the talking heads on sky last night. They are all liberal partisan hacks, but i enjoyed listening to their distress at their dear leader and party. From what i gleaned, Abbott’s leadership is tenuous

  36. victoria

    Wow things are bad when you actually enjoy watching Sky. 🙂

    I agree that despite the spin its looking likea crevasse of a split and still no sign of Hockey

  37. Abolishing the fuel subsidy to miners and farmers is a great idea if they actually do it. With Howard foolishly abolishing the indexation of fuel excise back in (about) 2000, fuel taxes now are low. There is no justification to then subsidise miners. Some of them even truck ore instead of using rail, because their net fuel cost is artificially low.

    Have a good day all.

  39. The execution was not bothched. He’s dead isn’t he? He was criminal wasn’t he? I bet he was black so there is two birds with one stone right there.

    We batptize terrorists and kill crims. Simple as that.

    My view is that we should stop messing around with chemicals, doctors and injections. We should put the terrorists, blacks, bleeding hearts and your other petty criminals, put them against walls and just blast them off the planet with gunfire.

    Plus it could be privatised. I am sure that the NRA would just love to organise volunteer death squads from its members.

  42. 31….lizzie

    I’m sure they’re finding it much more difficult than they imagined. It’s likely to get more difficult too…at least until LNG production takes off. But even this – large as it will be – may not change the dynamics enough. Whichever way we try to look at things, real disposable per capita income – the measure of how much individuals have in their pockets to spend – is going to keep falling for some time yet.

    We should be figuring out what to do mitigate this – how to promote income growth, how to support labour demand, how to fill the fiscal void in ways that won’t harm the economy. This is obviously too much for the LNP – you’re right. 🙂

  43. Boerwar

    Yoiu might be inteerested to know that Greg Sheridan was lauding Abbott’s brilliant success in Asia recently. Also that the relationship with Indonesia is great. SBY has invited Abbott to bali next week and that the boats have stopped

  44. v
    Stopping the boats has been a success. Simple as that. The ongoing costs of that success to the moral, democratic and economic fabric of Australia we will fully uncover in due course.

    I assume that Sheridan did not disclose what is in the intelligence agreements being hammered out (in secret) between the Australian and Indonesian governments.

    I can only assume from the friendly overtures coming from Indonesia that they have successfully screwed the Australian side.

    But you will not hear that from that from Abbott’s hagiographer.

  47. eva cox ‏@evacox 43m
    Commission of Audit seriously flawed as doesn’t include $125B of tax expenditures, mainly tax cuts for the rich eg super, but targets poor!

  48. This is fiscal debauchery

    http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/05/huge-negative-gearing-losses-revealed/

    The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) has just released its 2011-12 Taxation Statistics, which once again revealed Australia is a nation of loss-making landlords, with 15% of taxpayers owning rental properties declaring a combined $7.86 billion of losses.

    According to the ATO, there were 1,895,775 property investors in Australia in 2011-12, up from 1,811,175 in 2010-11

    Some more interesting (worrying?) facts that can be deduced from the ATO data includes:

    Just over 1 in 7 (1,895,775) Australian taxpayers are a property investor (either negatively geared or positively geared), claiming a total of $7.859 billion in rental losses;

    1 in 10 Australian taxpayers (1,266,540) are a negatively geared property investor claiming a total of $13.799 billion in rental losses;

    The average income loss for all property investors in 2011-12 was $4,146; and

    The average income loss for all negatively geared property investors in 2011-12 was $10,895.

    This all translates into tax expenditures of around $4 bill pa….

  49. Just popped down to the shops and saw the front page of the deadwood GG. Lordy the panic button has been pushed. His mordor protection squad are out in force praising Tones and his economic sense.

  50. poroti
    Posted Thursday, May 1, 2014 at 8:54 am | PERMALINK
    Just popped down to the shops and saw the front page of the deadwood GG. Lordy the panic button has been pushed. His mordor protection squad are out in force praising Tones and his economic sense.

    The online version has a headline “EXCLUSIVE Experts put axe in PM’s hands”.

    Obviously Murdoch is being satirical. An ‘ex’ is a has-been and a ‘spurt’ is a drip under pressure.

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