Easter followed by the Anzac Day long weekend has resulted in a lean period for polling, with Newspoll very unusually having gone three weeks without. In an off week for Morgan’s fortnightly publication schedule, that just leaves Essential Research for this week, which I have so far neglected to cover. The poll has Labor’s lead up from 51-49 to 52-48, which is Labor’s best result from Essential since two weeks out from the 2010 election. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 40% and Labor up one to 38%, while the Greens are on 10%, losing the point that brought them to a temporary peak last week. Palmer United is steady on 5%, which is two points higher than four weeks ago. Other questions in this week’s Essential survey were to do with political party membership (26% say Bill Shorten’s proposed Labor membership rules would make them more likely to vote for the party versus 6% less likely and 59% make no difference; 72% say they would never consider joining a party versus 15% who say they would; 60% won’t confess to having ever engaged in party political activity), the fighter jets purchase (30% approve, 52% disapprove), republicanism (33% for and 42% against, compared with 39% and 35% in June 2012; 46% think a republic likely one day versus 37% for unlikely; 54% approve of the idea of Prince William being King of Australia versus only 26% who don’t).
As for BludgerTrack, Essential Research has had next to no effect on two-party preferred, and none at all on the seat projection, either nationally or any particular state. However, there is movement on the primary vote as the effects of Nielsen’s Greens outlier of three weeks ago fade off. That still leaves the Greens at an historically high 12.0%, but it still remains to be seen if they are trending back to the 9% territory they have tended to occupy for the past few years, or if they find a new equilibrium at a higher level. The Coalition is also down on the primary vote, which is beginning to look like a trend (it is only by the grace of rounding that its score still has a four in front of it). This cancels out the effect of the Greens’ drop on the two-party preferred vote for Labor, whose primary vote has little changed. Palmer United’s slight gain to 4.6% puts them at their highest level so far this year. There haven’t been any new leadership ratings since Nielsen, so the results displayed are as they were a fortnight ago.
11am at Sydney. Town Hall today, the State Funeral for Neville Wran.
PJK set to give the eulogy, will probably be swamped by other events, but will be worthy of close inspection.
“@political_alert: Greens Leader Christine Milne, who chairs the Senate Inquiry into the govt’s Commission of Audit, will respond to the report at 3pm #auspol”
Don’t worry. A good sustained dose of Liberalism is all they need to cure them of that and that is what they will be getting. A lot of ordinary working people fell for John Howard’s carefully crafted weasel words until he hit them with workchoices.
And don’t forget, on present indications Labor only needs about two percent more of them to switch back to it and Abbott is gone. With the self made problems he now has trying to get his magic pudding to work that shouldn’t be all that hard to achieve.
liyana@33
Particularly as abbott won’t want to ‘adequately’ fund the functions he wants to rid himself of.
Ha – suckers who voted for this bunch of utter pricks – you used the baseball bats on yourself. Now take whats coming….
You too ABC!
Briefly
“The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) has just released its 2011-12 Taxation Statistics, which once again revealed Australia is a nation of loss-making landlords, with 15% of taxpayers owning rental properties declaring a combined $7.86 billion of losses.”
I guess it just goes to prove 85% of tax payers supporting the “age of entitlement” .
The slogan you will never hear from any political party….
END ALL NEGATIVE GEARING NOW!
“@political_alert: Apologies. Greens Senator Richard Di Natale chairs Senate Inquiry into Commission of Audit. He’ll be speaking with Milne at 3pm. #auspol”
From latika
Finance Minister Mathias Cormann says a deficit levy is needed because spending cuts would hurt lower income earners only. @amworldtodaypm
victoria@34
Plus the really nasty stuff in the budget still hasn’t seen the light of day.
CoA release later today may mark the way though.
From Latika
Cormann: only way we can effectively ensure..higher income earners..
is through well targeted time limited measures through..tax system
So #deficitlevy looking more and more likely. The internal response within the Govt will be fascinating to observe, if it happens.
As per latika’s tweets, Cormann is out and about. Where is Hockey?
Finance Minister Mathias Cormann has given a strong defence of a proposed deficit levy, saying it is a way of ensuring those on higher incomes share the burden of fixing the budget.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-01/budget-priorities-to-become-clearer-with-commission-of-audit/5422508
Just heard a comment from a caller on ABC.
He said that Private Public Partnership is code for corporate welfare. Boom I say.
Would depend in part on whether they put up someone like bullock or not.
victoria
“Where is Hockey?”
Checking to see if the rising tide is coming in!
Learning his lines with PM Peta.
Love this from Jeff Kennett —
Right. So in Kennettworld, the Opposition (or the ABC) ‘invents’ a tax hike, which the PM then confirms.
Of course, that’s far more likely a scenario than a Liberal MP leaking factual information.
As proved by your term in office in Victoria, right, Jeff?
Not only did the public get rid of you with reasonable speed, but the shadow you left helped Labor stay in government for a decade…
Right. So a crap Prime Minister, then.
Right. But when Gillard did the same sort of thing, she was lambasted for breaking promises (as Kennett does at the start of this interview — an interesting disconnect with his premise that leaders must put the public interest first and lack the courage to do so)
There’s also an inherent contradiction here – Kennett repeatedly says that the Coalition knew they were inheriting a mess (his take on affairs, not mine), says they shouldn’t have made promises they couldn’t keep, and then says that Abbott should have bailed up the party room and said that they had to break promises because of the state of affairs…
If the Coalition knew that the economy was on the rocks, knew that people wanted action to fix the problem, knew that people would bear a little pain in order to achieve this, then there’s no reason why they shouldn’t have been upfront with the public in the years prior to the election.
Actually, you poor deluded pumpkin, it led to the biggest swing against a first term government in Victoria’s history (to that point).
If articulate means contradictory and confused…
But you just said that that wasn’t an excuse….
Ah. I think we’re getting down to tin tacks now..
Like Kennett, I’m stumped as to the present government. The previous one had a vision where all Australians had access to high quality education (in decent buildings), had world class technology and infrastructure, was pulling its weight on carbon emissions reduction (and thus being a good global citizen) and where the disabled were treated with respect and dignity…just for starters.
Seriously??
Kennett as visionary?
So Kennett is saying that the Federal government isn’t providing any of those things? (I’d give them marks for being simple…)
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2014/s3995463.htm
I’m wondering if abbott’s game plan is to use the ‘budget emergency’ and ‘belt-tightening’ budget to go to an early election saying he needs a mandate to make the changes so he doesn’t ‘lie’ to the public – he’ll combine some sweeteners and focus on gutting and filleting the federal public service (this will be electorally popular outside of the ACT – particularly if they get the states to promise to maintain or even boost health and education funding as a result – in the short term). He’ll time his triggers and the election so that the royal commission into unions is hitting labor hard.
I suspect the ‘wealth levy’ was a ploy to get people’s attention – now he’ll drop or water it down, say ‘he’s listened’ and say ‘well if we can’t have they we need to do away with federal agencies and give the funding to the states’. the funding to the states will evaporate soon after.
would he be crazy brave enough? he’d have murdoch and the ARF’s backing, as well as massive corporate backing. I think he could probably full this off, and even if he doesn’t drag debate so far to the right that he’ll have a goldwater ‘victory’ in the longer term. labor’s challenge is whether they move right or left in response.
ARF =AFR in my last post
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/05/manufacturing-pmi-tanks/
More of the same…
an overvalued currency
slack domestic demand
feeble exports
lousy forward orders and depressed prices
contraction in mining investment
The secular decline in manufacturing continues, reflecting not only domestic conditions but also continuing excess capacity in the global economy and still-weak nominal growth in world trade.
@smh: Editorial: A deficit levy is a shoddy way to try to fix the budget, and will do little to improve our economy. http://t.co/J0u60vj9Iz
An iron ore glut looms…
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/05/vale-iron-ore-oversupply-is-here/
@BernardKeane: Excellent no-nonsense takedown of the government’s “budget emergency” hypocrisy by the AFR’s @DavidBassanese http://t.co/jneOtBtSz6
Isn’t it tradition that the Treasurer tends to disappear in the lead up to the Budget? You know, they are hard at work preparing it etc. Or have I made that one up.
Sir Mad
You make a good point
Cormann may be supporting the BNTax, but Barnardi isn’t.
Let the dogs out!
Sir Mad Cyril@73
If the majority of the budget isn’t locked in by now they are having major problems.
A few items might be still up for grabs, but they are running out of time.
Think I read of some meeting tomorrow to sort out the final stuff.
CoA release today – nicely in time for a NewsPoll weekend along with the deceit tax etc.
They can’t drop the debt tax now because they’re selling it!
It’s not the tax in and of itself that will be the issue but the relationship between Abbott and his base and how that plays out in terms of how the public views it all. This could reignite the pyrotechnics from 2009
Before i head out. Fran Kelly who is filling in for BCassidy, gave a summary of politics on ABC 774 earlier.
In a nutshell, Abbott is struggling to find support for his PPL and this proposed increase in taxes for incomes over $80,000. This has damaged Abbott. Labor will repay him in kind for broken promises etc, but Abbott was brilliant in boxing Labor in opposition. He may be able to convince the voters that this is the budget bottom line is all Labor’s fault
Zoomster
TONY JONES: They probably won’t take you up on your idea of – your old idea of joining Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania into one mega state, will they? But …
JEFF KENNETT: No, they probably won’t, but what a wonderful idea! What a wonderful
Didn’t Geoff ( bless his heart) propose to get rid of all State Governments ?
Just have Local & Federal
So I wake up to find that the Commission of Audit is a Fraud, and that we demand that it is invalid, and call for a new election based on Fraudsters?
Sorry that’s Gough
@ABCFactCheck: What has Tony Abbott said about increasing tax in the past? http://t.co/kks44DG1qF http://t.co/giUyCsO7E6
zoidlord
I don’t want an immediate election. I’d prefer that the voters start to understand the reality of Coalition rule. They need time to reverse their thinking. It’s too soon.
@83
It should be done before new Senate, because otherwise it will be compromised and passed under new senate.
Alternate realities really do exist or Greg Hunt is teling lies.
Here’s comment on UNESCO’s draft decision on the Great Barrier Reef’s World Heritage status.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-01/unesco-decision-dredge-spoil-on-great-barrier-reef-condemned/5422802
And
http://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/cairns/unesco-sets-reef-deadline-for-federal-govt/story-fnjpusyw-1226901792556
And here’s Grunt’s take on the draft decision – either he has read an entirely different report, he is telling huge porkies or he really is living in an alternate reality.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/221282859/14-05-01-Hunt-Media-Release-Strong-Progress-Recognised-in-Draft-Great-Barrier-Reef-Decision
Here is the report – it’s very long, 72 pages, I haven’t read it yet.
http://awsassets.wwf.org.au/downloads/mo032_fight_for_the_reef_report_to_the_unesco_world_heritage_committee_30jan14.pdf
What a shambles.
@seanparnell: UNESCO says World Heritage Committee may put Great Barrier Reef on its “World Heritage in Danger” list (p102) #straya http://t.co/bogKcy3WRm
“@political_alert: Greens Finance Spokesperson @AdamBandt has called for a ‘bank levy’ after the ANZ’s record $3.5b half-year profit announcement #auspol”
Tony Windsor @TonyHWindsor 11m
Ross Gittins knows this stuff backwards but politicians unable to explain hence all this rubbish about budget crisis
Gottliebsen –
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/5/1/federal-budget/retail-red-alert-hockeys-budget
sortius @sortius 45s
Liberal party corruption in all the eastern states? Say it isn’t so!
@dave/91
We know from experience, and in UK’s experience is to not mess with people’s payments on Centerlink.
http://empowermagazine.org.uk/Features/DWP/Access-to-work.html
“For example, we know from recent research that more disabled jobseekers cite employers’ attitudes as a bigger barrier to finding work than transport difficulties. To tackle this, we recently launched a two-year campaign to support businesses to become more confident about hiring disabled people.
A more inclusive business isn’t just about doing the ‘right thing’ – it makes good business sense, with the purchasing power of disabled people worth around £80bn a year. Inclusive employers tap into this potential. ”
So why is it, that our politicians cannot realize the purchasing power of those on Centerlink ?
@GrogsGamut: “Fact file: What has Tony Abbott promised on tax?” He said a lot… http://t.co/Da9FZD58f4
J Bishop presser now
guytaur@89
Abbott’s creature of No! No! No! is coming back to bite him on the bum.
He destroyed any attempt of reasonable reform in the country’s interests and has fired up reflex resistance to anyone who tries reform or to reduce anyones circumstances – irrespective of their level of wealth.
Enjoy it abbott…..you had it coming.
mikehilliard
I like the 2012 word of the year coined by the UK political comedy The Thick of It . Omnishambles.
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk 2m
I still think this is Mr Hockey’s grand plan… the 2015 Budget is the main game: http://thekouk.com/blog/joe-hockey-treasury-or-trickery.html#.U2GZv1y26f0 …
So Hockey is planning to say hey presto! We used magic to get to surplus.
Another thing that seems to have been allowed to slip very quitely under the radar – yesterday the NSW Tories sold the Port of Newcastle – one of our busiest ports to a company 50% owed by the Chinese Government.
Baird was very briefly on TV last night gloating at the price he got.
I’m positive the Chinese see it the other way around – that they secured a long term asset at a more than acceptable price.
Now if Labor had sold such a foundation asset to the “Red Chinese Communists” – imagine the outcry………
Tony Abbott, the Victor Frankenstein of Australian politics, is now in deep electoral trouble. The Monster of the ‘Great Big New Tax’ he has created now stalks the land and the hapless villagers are in open revolt, torches ablaze as they pursue him and his lumbering Golem into the hills.
It is an exquisite irony that Abbott is now stymied by the incipient terror he himself has created of the very thing he now espouses. Despite the need for some progressive changes in our tax arrangements to make the wealthy pay more of their fair share of the burden, the political reality engendered by Abbott’s relentless fear campaign about debt, deficit and the horror of any new taxes conducted over the last 4 years means he cannot now credibly propose any tax increases without breaking his explicit and oft repeated promises to the electorate, the very thing he bitterly condemned the former Prime Minister, Julia Gillard for over hill and dale, in every forum, at every doorstop since 2010.
For good or ill, the currency of all politicians is their credibility, and what little of this commodity the Prime Minister may have possessed is now draining away.
The windmill is on fire, and Abbott is now set to perish electorally in the political conflagration he caused along with dreaded creature he created.