Easter followed by the Anzac Day long weekend has resulted in a lean period for polling, with Newspoll very unusually having gone three weeks without. In an off week for Morgan’s fortnightly publication schedule, that just leaves Essential Research for this week, which I have so far neglected to cover. The poll has Labor’s lead up from 51-49 to 52-48, which is Labor’s best result from Essential since two weeks out from the 2010 election. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 40% and Labor up one to 38%, while the Greens are on 10%, losing the point that brought them to a temporary peak last week. Palmer United is steady on 5%, which is two points higher than four weeks ago. Other questions in this week’s Essential survey were to do with political party membership (26% say Bill Shorten’s proposed Labor membership rules would make them more likely to vote for the party versus 6% less likely and 59% make no difference; 72% say they would never consider joining a party versus 15% who say they would; 60% won’t confess to having ever engaged in party political activity), the fighter jets purchase (30% approve, 52% disapprove), republicanism (33% for and 42% against, compared with 39% and 35% in June 2012; 46% think a republic likely one day versus 37% for unlikely; 54% approve of the idea of Prince William being King of Australia versus only 26% who don’t).
As for BludgerTrack, Essential Research has had next to no effect on two-party preferred, and none at all on the seat projection, either nationally or any particular state. However, there is movement on the primary vote as the effects of Nielsen’s Greens outlier of three weeks ago fade off. That still leaves the Greens at an historically high 12.0%, but it still remains to be seen if they are trending back to the 9% territory they have tended to occupy for the past few years, or if they find a new equilibrium at a higher level. The Coalition is also down on the primary vote, which is beginning to look like a trend (it is only by the grace of rounding that its score still has a four in front of it). This cancels out the effect of the Greens’ drop on the two-party preferred vote for Labor, whose primary vote has little changed. Palmer United’s slight gain to 4.6% puts them at their highest level so far this year. There haven’t been any new leadership ratings since Nielsen, so the results displayed are as they were a fortnight ago.
zoid
There will be more. Monsoon season ended
It’ll be interesting to see how the Abbott government would deal with a President Joko Widodo of PDI-P, should it eventuate. I would think it’s pretty basic politics to understand now, a year in which both the executive and legislature of Indonesia is elected, is not the time to be burning bridges with Indonesia.
Why would an on water operation embarrass SBY?
victoria
For being too close to Abbott’s Government
Ukrainian fascist in Lviv,,,4 days ago…marched to celebrate the formation in 1943 of the Ukrainian Waffen SS under Nazi leadership in WW2…which fought with the Nazis to the end in Berlin…some captured were executred later for war crimes
This pic shows the marches with thier banners and slogans
what other evidence do some people need about this ???
http://rt.com/news/155364-ukraine-nazi-division-march/
[MTBW
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 3:26 pm | PERMALINK
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-to-crack-down-on-dole-but-will-avoid-harshest-recommendation-20140503-zr3t8.html
Abbott will avoid the harshest recommendations re the unemployed. Give the man a gold star on his forehead!]
He seems determined to make sure everyone hates his guts.
GG I’ll take that as a no. That’s a shame. I think that your consistent over-reaction to me and my comments indicates that you have a bit of an anger problem. Thanks for showing everybody how right I am about your reversion to abuse.
debionay
Fascists demonstrated in Brisbane too. Does not mean we are a fascist country yet
dave
He is certainly getting there.
Tim Webster on Sydney radio this arvo was criticising him for what he doing.
Bugler – the Indonesians “tend” to give relationships a clean slate after an election – maybe abbott will benefit from this – maybe.
OTOH – even then he will probably find another way to damage the relationship with the new President.
deblonay – your posts on Ukraine are junk.
You tried to use the BBC as an authoritative source:
I thought “now if the BBC said that, that would be interesting”.
The BBC said nothing of the sort, of course. You just use the good name of the BBC to bolster your fringe lunacy.
And why Poll Bludger is the appropriate forum to fight Russia/Ukraine wars I have no idea.
guytaur
I cant see that being the reason it would embarrass SBY
Mad Dog
You are not alone! GG seems to hate just about everything and everyone. He needs to go to confession.
victoria
I was joking as it would embarrass most to be close to Abbott 🙂
However seriously Its projection as it would be Abbott embarrassed of course.
Vic
It seems to be about Australian boats trying to turn around an asylum seeker boat in Indonesian waters.
guytaur
It is no secret that the likes of Svoboda are fascist fans. That said I could see why after the Stalin induced famine that killed millions of Ukrainians that during the Greet Patriotic war they saw the Germans as liberators. Their enthusiasm for killing Jews…..not so much understanding.
[victoria
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 3:43 pm | PERMALINK
Why would an on water operation embarrass SBY?]
This of course raises an interesting issue. Abbott was scheduled to travel to Bali on Monday and return on Tuesday. So why couldn’t the navy be instructed to hold the current asylum seekers on board the navy ship until after Abbott returns from meeting SBY? (It’s all done in secret so nobody would know for sure what was happening.)
Mtbw
I understand that it is re turning back a boat, but Greg Sheridan the other day was suggesting that Indonesia had accepted this policy and had in fact invited Abbott to their country next week. So all was good apparently.
Seems someone is telling fibs
vic
You are not accusing Abbott of lying are you?
vic
You are not accusing Abbott of lying are you?
Citizen
Indeed. It is all rather curious
deblonay
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 3:44 pm | PERMALINK
Ukrainian fascist in Lviv,,,4 days ago…marched to celebrate the formation in 1943 of the Ukrainian Waffen SS under Nazi leadership in WW2…which fought with the Nazis to the end in Berlin…some captured were executred later for war crimes
This pic shows the marches with thier banners and slogans
what other evidence do some people need about this ???
http://rt.com/news/155364-ukraine-nazi-division-march/
——not yours you squared eye short sighted commo – what all the way with putin comrade?
poroti
Yes Ukraine and Russia is complex and no simple explanation for underlying tensions involved
Mug Dag,
You are sweet.
Are you on a Mission from God?
Jackol
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 3:50 pm | PERMALINK
deblonay – your posts on Ukraine are junk.
You tried to use the BBC as an authoritative source:
According to several reports,inc BBC, right-wing neo-fascists from the Pravy Sector came from Kiev and attacked the House of Trade Unions,and then used fire bombs to set it alight
I thought “now if the BBC said that, that would be interesting”.
The BBC said nothing of the sort, of course. You just use the good name of the BBC to bolster your fringe lunacy.
And why Poll Bludger is the appropriate forum to fight Russia/Ukraine wars I have no idea.
———-i have asked deblonay to be banned on this topic weeks ago – he calls me a fascist in reply. doesn’t crikey have some policy direction?
I certainly think forgiveness is very important in diplomacy and politics generally, however SBY has been president after the past three presidential elections and this can no longer be the case.
On a psephological matter, the release of the legislative results later this week from the election on 9th April should be interesting 🙂
mtbw
It would seem it is more than just Abbott telling fibs about this matter
guytaur
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 3:59 pm | PERMALINK
poroti
Yes Ukraine and Russia is complex and no simple explanation for underlying tensions involved
-not that complex – herr putin wanted a new soviet and the citizens of ukraine said no
MTBW,
It wouldn’t work, champ.
You’d still be as obnoxious as ever when I came out again.
geoffrey
Thats not underlying tensions. Thats Putin making a grab for territory
GG Its all too easy to get you going. I’m bored with it. I will desist. I hope you and George and the Christian Brothers will be very happy together. Dog knows, you deserve each other.
I don’t understand why/how the PM visiting Indonesia affects “on water matters”. Has this been explained? Or has he actually got the whole telephone thing he said he would set up. (If that is the case, the fact that he sits in his office all day waiting to be called by the Navy about “on water matters” would possibly explain why this Government is so out-of-touch)
@BBCWorld: #Ukraine’s military operation against pro-Russian militants resumes after deadly violence http://t.co/6c0KhtqE2U http://t.co/HSZoloMjoD
So far sanctions working. No news of Russian Military crossing openly
Sorry, 1926 was in response to Dave. Getting slack
A very busy #insiders 2mrw! Join @frankellyabc who’ll interview Christopher Pyne. @PhillipCoorey, David Marr & Gerard Henderson on panel.
Glum gad,
Good night sweet Prince.
And, may flights of angels
Sing thee to thy sleep.
_______Gaytaur Fascists in Brisbane haven’t taken part in the overthrow of the Govt of Qland….so .your anology is false
Geoffrey
_______
Your abusive comments are so silly and incoherant that I won’t reply now or later to them
You would be best to post such coimments when your sober
I assume Abbott expwcts everyone to do a PhD in the 7 years he wants them on youth allowance? Just because he never had a job in his twenties means he wants to blame everyone who comes after him. Oh and Tony not everyone lives at home with mum and dad until they are in their 30s like John Howard.
[Young Australians are currently allowed to receive the Newstart unemployment allowance when they turn 22 but they are expected to be be forced to wait until they turn 25 before receiving the payment in changes expected in the budget, when Prime Minister Tony Abbott will tell young Australians they must “learn or earn”.]
My thesis is proven
even damning photos of fascist gatherings to celebrate the SS wont convince some on this site
deblonay,
You’d be better to post your comments when you can spell.
debionay
I think your rebuttal is false. Until order is restored and the Ukraine people get to vote we will not know.
Russia is in the wrong and its actions are not justified.
Putin is grabbing for territory. See Georgia.
Post 1925….asking for banning of those you disagree with Geoffrey would seem a very fascist way of acting !
my point proven again
AussieAchmed@1895
Surely Abbott is going to make all LNP parliamentarians forgo the pension till age 70 … I mean, that’s only fair, right?
[A very busy #insiders 2mrw! Join @frankellyabc who’ll interview Christopher Pyne. @PhillipCoorey, David Marr & Gerard Henderson on panel.]
That program is still going?
Why didn’t the Commission of Audit recommend that it be outsourced to China?
I am sure we’d get better analysis and political reportage from Beijing and at a much lower cost (it couldn’t be any worse than what is produced in that intellectually bankrupt clapped out press gallery in Canberra).
In any case, ABC should not be providing corporate welfare to big business (cf. News Ltd and Fairfax) by giving them extra (and free) airspace. Its resources would be better directed elsewhere, either original content and analysis, or returned to consolidated revenue to be spent on more worthy government programs.
Re cancellation of Abbott’s visit to Indonesia. The ostensible reasons given, including ’embarrasment to SBY’, are probably just more Abbott lies. It would be more likely that it was Abbott who was going to be embarrassed when SBY refused to see him becsause, probably because of some issue connected to the current ‘on water operations’.
Of course, I don’t know, but on past form Abbott lying is hardly unlikely. The real reason for the cancellation is unlikely to reflect well on him.
guytaur
[Putin is grabbing for territory.]
He’s trying to rebuild, as much as he can, the buffer zone they had after WWII.
Your question re Poll Bludger as a forum
well…
in recent weeks we have had ESJ discuss and debate his se change so salled
Some discussion re the health of GG and his Civility implant(as Bemused suggest…it failed I guess)
Endless comment on football and criket from time to time,and much on other personal matters ,illness,the drink,whatever !
World affairs seem quite refreashing after all that
@1938
So we have money saving exercises, putting more people into poverty lines.
Ruawake,
[Young Australians are currently allowed to receive the Newstart unemployment allowance when they turn 22 but they are expected to be be forced to wait until they turn 25 before receiving the payment in changes expected in the budget, when Prime Minister Tony Abbott will tell young Australians they must “learn or earn”.]
Sounds like it’s time to re-calibrate my plan of when I move out and when I go back to full-time study, which is something I could personally do without right now
Abbott had to cancel his trip to Indonesia because he had asked the Australian Navy to escort him.
They reluctantly had to admit that they weren’t actually sure where Indonesia was!