Easter followed by the Anzac Day long weekend has resulted in a lean period for polling, with Newspoll very unusually having gone three weeks without. In an off week for Morgan’s fortnightly publication schedule, that just leaves Essential Research for this week, which I have so far neglected to cover. The poll has Labor’s lead up from 51-49 to 52-48, which is Labor’s best result from Essential since two weeks out from the 2010 election. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 40% and Labor up one to 38%, while the Greens are on 10%, losing the point that brought them to a temporary peak last week. Palmer United is steady on 5%, which is two points higher than four weeks ago. Other questions in this week’s Essential survey were to do with political party membership (26% say Bill Shorten’s proposed Labor membership rules would make them more likely to vote for the party versus 6% less likely and 59% make no difference; 72% say they would never consider joining a party versus 15% who say they would; 60% won’t confess to having ever engaged in party political activity), the fighter jets purchase (30% approve, 52% disapprove), republicanism (33% for and 42% against, compared with 39% and 35% in June 2012; 46% think a republic likely one day versus 37% for unlikely; 54% approve of the idea of Prince William being King of Australia versus only 26% who don’t).
As for BludgerTrack, Essential Research has had next to no effect on two-party preferred, and none at all on the seat projection, either nationally or any particular state. However, there is movement on the primary vote as the effects of Nielsen’s Greens outlier of three weeks ago fade off. That still leaves the Greens at an historically high 12.0%, but it still remains to be seen if they are trending back to the 9% territory they have tended to occupy for the past few years, or if they find a new equilibrium at a higher level. The Coalition is also down on the primary vote, which is beginning to look like a trend (it is only by the grace of rounding that its score still has a four in front of it). This cancels out the effect of the Greens’ drop on the two-party preferred vote for Labor, whose primary vote has little changed. Palmer United’s slight gain to 4.6% puts them at their highest level so far this year. There haven’t been any new leadership ratings since Nielsen, so the results displayed are as they were a fortnight ago.
Abbott’s mad
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/tony-abbotts-psychostyle-attack-on-spending-demolishes-fiscal-fantasy-20140502-zr3do.html#ixzz30dBMaRX2
deblonay,
This blog is primarily designed to talk about polls and local political and social issues in Australia.
What happens in Syria, the middle east and central Europe is only of marginal interest to most posters.
I’m not saying it should never be discussed. However, I reckon you over egg the pudding.
[My thesis is proven]
“Proven” is not how I’d describe it
Ctar
A fantasy ambition. The world has changed and Russia is not the power it once was. It has more presence because of the nukes. However India is getting close to surpassing them in the power stakes.
Things are changing
post 1947..the second line should have read” debate his sex change so called “..the x was ommited
Bugler,
Liberal Neil Angus is my local MLA in Forest Hill. He was elected last state election. He is a very hardworking representative and maintains a high profile within the electorate. He has volunteered for a couple of working bees in my local bush block which is more than parachuted celebrity Richmond-residing ALP Kirstie Marshall ever contributed during her two terms in office. He actually puts in a couple of hours and gets his hands dirty.
The Liberal campaign here is in full swing. Already there have been numerous letter box drops by NA’s campaign team. So far there has been one ‘card’ from the ALP candidate Pauline Richards.
Pauline was a comrade in arms during the Deakin Your Rights at Work campaign as she was campaign manager for ALP Mike Symons who was elected in 2007. We have crossed paths many times over the years and always have a good ‘catch up’ when we do. She has invited me and OH to join her door knocking team but we declined as we will be door knocking for the Greens.
I hope Pauline is elected in November but doubt Neil Angus will be knocked off.
Re: Ukraine
As others have pointed out, ask yourself would you rather be in Poland today or Ukraine?
Poland and Ukraine had similar GDP per capita and living standards following the collapse of the Eastern bloc and Soviet Russia in the early 1990s.
Poland chose the path of European integration and thanked the Russians to never return. Ukraine did not (or could not) and is now facing economic ruin and being dismembered by Russian-sponsored violence and thuggery.
The Russian model (be it Soviet, Czarist or “New Russia”) is a failure that delivers the trappings to a ruling and minuscule elite and leaves the masses in abject misery. Nothing much has changed.
Most Ukrainians of course know this and that is why they want to move to the European model and not the Russian, but they will not be allowed to do so by the Moscow regime.
Shame on deblonay and other similarly deranged posters.
guytaur:
[Russia is in the wrong and its actions are not justified.
Putin is grabbing for territory. See Georgia.]
Yep. Crimea is already in Putin’s clutches. The turmoil in eastern Ukraine may be a Russian land grab in progress, or merely an effort to hobble Ukraine and stop the country from falling into the orbit of the EU and the US.
Either way, it’s Putin trying to re-build a rump Soviet Union.
Bugler,
If deblonay claims the thesis is proven, I just wonder what was the “Null hypothesis”?
An excellent summation Darren Laver. I have an annoying work colleague who’s virulently pro-Putin and anti-American. Your post gave me some useful ammo.
I’d like some discussion on why people continue to be rusted-on partisans in the face of corruption, dishonesty, incompetence and intolerance.
Ask the good people of Belarus about the manifold “benefits” of Russian hegemony. There’s a good reason why Lukashenko won’t let his people vote.
Did Abbott ask if he could bring his boogie board?
AussieAchmed@1951
Seems the MSM has finally cottoned on to the fact that Abbott is not only an idiot (they probably already knew that) but that his antics are also bad for their businesses.
I think a few of the bigshots of the MSM are giving the LNP a shot or two across the bows. Presumably the message is “Reign in your moron of a leader or we’ll do it for you”
deblonay puts the X in sex… apparently
Rex,
God bless his cotton so…
Gaytaur 1941”’re Georgia
__________
The Georgian events took place after the Georgians had invaded the territory of Ossetia,,,linked to Russia,,and threatened Abkazia nearby
The Georgian President was close to the US and wanted NATO membership
His foolish attack was responded to by the Russians …as one would have know it would be
The Russians didn’t initiate the conflict and the Pres of Georgia was later defeated in a free election there…as local people rejected him and his US puppet regime
get the facts right and don’t let russophobia blur the past
BTW the events in Odessa will I suspect initiate a major Russian response
Christine Milne on Abbott’s cancelled visit to Indonesia:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/03/operation-sovereign-borders-possible-reason-abbott-postpones-bali-trip
[“This is Tony Abbott in action. He is an embarrassment internationally and at home,” Greens leader Christine Milne said in a statement.
“With Indonesia having already expressed its extreme displeasure at Australia dumping life boats in Indonesian waters, imagine how embarrassing it would have been for President Yudhoyono to have to stand with Tony Abbott as a group of dehydrated, sick and desperate refugees in an orange life boat drifted back from Australia.”
Milne said the prime minister had missed an opportunity to repair the relationship.
“It is very clear that Indonesia wants to heal the relationship as does Australia, but while the Abbott government continues to tow life boats back into Indonesian waters with a view to them drifting back to the coast somewhere, it will continue to jeopardise the relationship,” she said.]
[deblonay puts the X in sex… apparently]
I wonder what else he has in common with Kiss. I’m guessing he’s not Jewish.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNKJ4SPj_Rw
[Premier Denis Napthine will not be investigated over a $1.5 million government grant to a racing associate, after Victoria’s anti-corruption watchdog found he had no case to answer.
Labor leader Daniel Andrews wrote to the Independent Broadbased Anti-Corruption Commission last week, asking it to review the matter, and accusing Dr Napthine of a conflict of interest.]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victorias-anticorruption-watchdog-says-premier-denis-napthine-has-no-case-to-answer-20140503-zr3rq.html#ixzz30dFJrmD9
Pegasus,
I only joined Labor two months ago and unfortunately wasn’t able to attend a branch meeting in that time. I’ve met James Merlino at ANZAC and Australia day performances around the Valley or at Parliament House a few times while I still lived in the Valley and know a bit about his background. He comes across a politician is what I can tell you about his personality but he is very active in and around Monbulk and have no doubt he’ll be re-elected despite his margin being removed. David Hodgett, currently MP for Kilsyth, is going to be the Liberal candidate for the new seat of Croydon. I’ve only ever seen his face on the sign on the football oval and the nursery.
I can’t tell you much about Lesley Fielding, the Labor candidate, other than I believe she was a secondary school teacher and seems quite nice. She called me personally to ask if I could attend even though I’d had no official involvement with the party yet.
WB #1969
rac…y
Player One
I read right though Hartcher’s piece and to my surprise, found it an objective assessment of the decade.
Which means that he can be sensible when he wants to and earn his salary. Perhaps he’s not being spoon fed all the emotional stuff now, and has stopped barracking for his favourites. I might be able to read him in future without gagging.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/tony-abbotts-psychostyle-attack-on-spending-demolishes-fiscal-fantasy-20140502-zr3do.html#ixzz30dBMaRX2
GG,
It’s unfortunate the situation can’t be seriously discussed without being labelled with some childish, unjustified slur.
[Amanda Vanstone calls it a vision for the future.
We call it a vision of hell.]
http://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/2254892/farewell-to-a-fair-go-commission-of-audit/?cs=298
Very strong editorial in a regional newspaper.
[The Georgian President was close to the US and wanted NATO membership]
Yeah, so what? If the Baltic states can join NATO, why can’t Georgia? Putin is trying to strong-arm the former Soviet states into joining his rump USSR.
[The Russians didn’t initiate the conflict and the Pres of Georgia was later defeated in a free election there…as local people rejected him and his US puppet regime ]
Poppycock. You conveniently neglect to mention that Russia was stoking ethnic tensions within Georgia (South Ossetia), which lead to the war. Russia ostensibly intervened in Georgia to “protect” South Ossetia.
The reason why Saakashvili was defeated in elections was due to multiple factors, not just foreign policy re US.
Bugler,
It is refreshing to see a politically involved, articulate and relatively young person such as yourself posting on PB 🙂
[I read right though Hartcher’s piece and to my surprise, found it an objective assessment of the decade.
Which means that he can be sensible when he wants to and earn his salary. Perhaps he’s not being spoon fed all the emotional stuff now, and has stopped barracking for his favourites. I might be able to read him in future without gagging.]
Yes, it’s funny what happens when a journalist is not being spoon-fed leaks and scuttlebutt, they eventually have not choice but to return to their skill set and, shock horror, do some research and then present a coherent analysis!
Any journalist indulging in backgrounding and being on a leak drip feed is intellectually lazy. More often than not, they also corrupt our political and democratic process.
Bugler,
Yes it’s very much like discussing curfews with 14 year old teenage daughters.
I feel your pain.
Confessions
It is a brilliant editorial. Hits nail on proverbial head. Worth posting in tis entirety
[Amanda Vanstone calls it a vision for the future.
We call it a vision of hell.
The Commission of Audit report is the work of fat cats in lofty places far removed from the struggles and worries of ordinary Australians.
When it landed in our streets and backyards on Thursday, it exploded like a stink bomb.
Regardless of how much or little of this nonsense becomes reality, the stench of this report will taint the Abbott government for the rest of its term.
Under the recommendations, nearly everyone suffers – everyone, that is, except the fat cats who crafted it and their cronies.
Make no mistake: despite all the talk of sharing the pain, this report does almost nothing to extract a larger share from those most able to pay it.
The fat cats would be happy to slash the minimum wage. They would be happy to make ordinary Aussies work longer, pay more, get less.
But fix the superannuation rort that gives the wealthy a $30 billion tax break every year?
Not on your life.
South Coast Labour Council secretary Arthur Rorris calls the report “one of the biggest frauds ever unleashed on the people of Australia’’.
It would, he says, signal farewell to the core Australian concept of a fair go.
We couldn’t agree more.]
[Ask the good people of Belarus about the manifold “benefits” of Russian hegemony. There’s a good reason why Lukashenko won’t let his people vote.]
Exactly, few in Ukraine want to become a totalitarian client-state like Belarus, but enough elements are being stoked in its far east by Russia that they will at least be able to dismember the country and have a Moscow-friendly regime installed in some “autonomous” province carved out by separatists.
NATO and the West are too stretched to really do anything about it sadly – but it’s a shame there are apologists for these sorts of regimes in our midst.
Wikileaks has a lot to answer turning the loony left to hate Sweden and yet admire Russia. Utterly deranged.
Let them choose – debolany and his ilk can retire to Moscow or Stockholm. Your choice mate!
victoria:
Yes, it’s refreshingly honest. Not used to seeing that kind of thing in the opinion pages of our media.
kakuru
[The reason why Saakashvili was defeated in elections]
He did come across as an idiot.
confessions
It is refreshingly straight to the point.
fess,
The achilles heal of the COA is that it was written by big business for big business. Ross Gittens mentioned this morning that as one of the more well remunerated people in this Australia, that he was untouched by 86 of the 87 recommendations and wasn’t sure about the other.
It’s what you’d expect from a group representing a sectional interest within the economy. Special pleading. It’s a plan that ensures every body except them contributes financially to making the plan work.
Did Abbott really link his Indonesian no show to the arrival of a boat?
Not credible.
DL:
[NATO and the West are too stretched to really do anything about it sadly – but it’s a shame there are apologists for these sorts of regimes in our midst.]
It’s all a great hoot when Putin and his sidekicks are sticking it to Uncle Sam. Oh what jolly japes. But the countries run by these dictators are not much fun to live in.
Well done Confessions for the link and Victoria for posting it at 1975 and 1980. You are both not just pretty faces obviously 😈
BW,
It’s in all the papers. So, it must be true, comrade.
GG:
Of course. There’s a large part of me that hopes the govt introduces most of the COA’s recommendations. It could be just the thing that kills off this govt once and for all.
fess,
That would be cutting off your head to spite your face.
The Indonesians should even assist asylum seekers embark on the journey to Australia.
Stuff you Monkey
From the editorial quoted in 1980 above:
It would… signal farewell to the core Australian concept of a fair go.
That summarises the Commission of Audit in one succinct phrase. And it is the Liberal’s vision for Australia’s future.
GG:
Not necessarily. Look at the Newman govt in Qld.
[Boerwar
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2014 at 5:05 pm | PERMALINK
Did Abbott really link his Indonesian no show to the arrival of a boat?
Not credible.]
Abbott himself has not said a word. That message was conveyed by ‘government sources’.
For all we know, Abbott may be confined to a dungeon at Parliament House to keep him quiet while Hockey takes the running on the budget.
The contents of the commission of audit certainly did not surprise me, actually they should be applauded for the honesty of expressing their true wishes and ideology.
It’s all based on USER PAYS for EVERYTHING.
Will the voters buy it?
The Peter Hartcher crap may be vaguely accurate but why has it taken him a decade to write about it?
When Howard pissed $330 billion up against the wall did he say anything at all?
steve
Good comment.
If Labor and Shorten can establish that point then the COA will become seen as un-Australian.
Tony Abbott and the Libs will be tarred with having a secret plan to harm all true blue Australians. It’s a Fight Back moment all over again.
I hope Shorten does Abbott slowly and methodically.
Not going over because of a single boat somewhere?
I can’t believe that even Abbott/Bishop would be that stupid.
I assume the Indonesians, if they can be bothered with Australia at all, would be pissing themselves laughing at the fact that the same bull-in-a-china shop routine that smashed all their sensitivities is now causing mucho fear and loathing inside the ranks of the Government.
Meanwhile, back at ‘The Australian’, Sheridan is probably working an ouija board, trying to contact Santa for advice on how to lie with conviction that Abbott’s latest foray into international affairs is all good.
Pegasus,
There’s no need for flattery 😛 It’s probably not very brave to me to wait to be involved until after the… drama… subsided.
GG,
You know you’re in trouble when they start arguing “it’s better to seek forgiveness than permission” 🙂