Easter has meant that only the regular weekly pollsters have reported this week, which means Essential Research and Morgan. The latter polls weekly but reports fortnightly, which I deal with by dividing each fortnightly result into two data points, each with half the published sample size. Neither Essential nor Morgan is radically off beam, so this week’s movements involve a correction after last week’s Greens outlier from Nielsen. This is not to say that Nielsen’s Greens surge was measuring nothing at all, the 17% result perhaps having been partly a reflection of it being the poll most proximate to the WA Senate election. In fact, both of the new results this week find the Greens at their highest level since at least the last election, and probably a good while earlier. Their 11% rating in Essential may not appear too spectacular, but it comes from what is the worst polling series for them by some distance – indeed, the only one the BludgerTrack model does not deem to be biased in their favour. Nonetheless, their rating in BludgerTrack this week comes off 1.8% on last week’s Nielsen-driven peak.
The dividend from the Greens’ loss has been divided between other parties in such a way as to produce essentially no change on two-party preferred. However, state relativities have changed in such a way as to cost Labor three seats and its projected majority, illustrating once again the sensitivity of Queensland, where a 0.8% shift has made two seats’ worth of difference. The New South Wales result has also shifted 0.6% to the Coalition, moving a third seat back into their column. Another change worth noting is a 2.4% move to Labor in Tasmania, which is down to a methodological change – namely the inclusion, for Tasmania only, of the state-level two-party preferred results that Morgan has taken to publishing. I had not been putting this data to use thus far, as the BludgerTrack model runs off primary votes and the figures in question are presumably respondent-allocated preferences besides. However, the paucity of data for Tasmania is such that I’ve decided it’s worth my while to extract modelled primary votes from Morgan’s figures, imperfect though they may be. The change has not made any difference to the seat projection, this week at least.
Finally, I’ve amused myself by producing primary vote and two-party preferred trendlines for each of the five mainland states, which you can see below. These suggest that not too much has separated New South Wales and Victoria in the changes recorded over the current term, leaving aside their very different starting points. However, whereas the Coalition has had a very gentle upward trend this year in Victoria and perhaps also New South Wales, their decline looks to have resumed lately in Queensland. Last week I noted that six successive data points I was aware of had Labor ahead on two-party preferred in Queensland, including five which are in the model and a Morgan result which is not. That’s now extended to eight with the availability of two further data points this week. The other eye-catching result in the charts below is of course from Western Australia, which clearly shows the effects of the Senate election with respect to both the Greens and Palmer United. The current gap between Labor and the Greens is such that the latter could well win lower house seats at Labor’s expense on these numbers – not that I recommend holding my breath waiting for that to happen.
psyclaw@1096
Yes indeed.
Before WWII dad was in the militia and joined the RAAF sometime around the outbreak of war. I don’t know the date for sure.
He used to have a rectangular tin full of photos taken during the war and my brother and I went through them many times. But he didn’t really talk a lot about it.
He and his mates, when they got together, seemed to talk mainly about good times they had and some of the quite funny experiences they had.
One of these was when they ‘liberated’ a large quantity of wine the Germans had stashed at a place in Italy. An officer found out and so it was soon ‘liberated’ from the other ranks by the officers and placed under lock and key in a store room at a railway station.
Soon after, in the middle of the night, there was an almighty explosion and the whole railway station blew up, reduced to rubble.
No-one knew who did it but there were suspicions and I met the main suspect a few years before dad died. One hell of a funny guy – well into his 80s and trying to chat up the young waitresses while his wife looked on. He told one of them he would like to take her home and keep her as a pet but he didn’t think his wife would let him. The twinkle in his eye and the look on the girls face were a wonder to behold. 😆
Oh well, now I will cop it from the resident sisterhood for telling that.
Russia is in the wrong.
We know this because Putin agreed to things 7 days ago in Geneva. All out the window.
If Russia does not back down there will be a war. This reality is why China did not support Russia in the Security Council.
A war with Russia could involve Nukes.
The Ukraine and Russia have not responded to Kerry yet as far as I know.
This could get very very dangerous and the truth is the media and social media are bearing out the US version of events so far regarding Russia’s actions.
[I am not sure what the USA hoped to achieve in fomenting a coup in the Ukraine, installing their own puppet, and then agitating Russia to try and get them involved in an internal Ukraine conflict.]
Nothing of the kind occurred. As with your interpretation of the Gillard-Rudd wars, you are imposing non-facts on to a complex situation in order to render it simple enough for you to understand.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/25/us-malaysia-airlines-idUSBREA3O0B520140425
[(Reuters) – The search for missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 is likely to drag on for years, a senior U.S. defense official told Reuters on Friday, as an underwater search for any trace of the plane’s wreckage off west Australia appeared to have failed.
The official, speaking under condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment on the search effort, said two weeks of scouring the Indian Ocean floor with a U.S. Navy submersible drone had turned up no wreckage.
He said the search for the jetliner, which vanished on March 8 with 239 people on board, would now enter a much harder phase of scouring broader areas of the ocean near where the plane is believed to have crashed.
“We went all in on this small area and didn’t find anything. Now you’ve got to go back to the big area,” the official said. “And now you’re talking years.”]
One of my favorite Uncles fought in New Guinea durinng the war. for many years later he would yell and thrash about in his sleep. He would not march on ANZAC day, he said I don’t want to remember, I want to forget
[1103….William Bowe]
hear hear!
[Nothing of the kind occurred. As with your interpretation of the Gillard-Rudd wars, you are imposing non-facts on to a complex situation in order to render it simple enough for you to understand.]
Oh yes it did. But you don’t like it, suck it up.
Poroti
That is another deep and lovely generational recognition by the French. Thank you.
I imagine we would do something similar, however most Australians have not found themselves in a comparable position on Australian soil.
Apart from our indigenous.
To whom we should be erecting Anzac tributes and, in reverse, permanent physical memorials of APOLOGY for OUR occupation and dispossession.
The Anzac recognition of Aborigines is coming along.
Not fast enough, but good as far as it goes. This is interesting. At least in lieu of anything other.
https://www.facebook.com/AustralianAboriginalandTorresStraitIslanderANZACs?filter=3
This is gradually
….Pne tyhing to remember…..US policies in the main usually end in disaster
see also Vietnam/Libya/Irag.etc
watch as they do so in Eastern Europe too..and that regime in Kiev had better have a lot of candles for when the gas goes off
and BTW that statement of Obama’s in Tokyo to that awfull son-of-a-war-criminal Jap PM.. that he supports Japan in the dispute over the Senkaku Islands has gone down badly ,very badly in Beijing according to Asia Times
The Chinese may do all sorts of things…but they wont cop that without giving Obama a nastly joly
what if they seize the islands ? and even sink a few Jap vessels ???
My father and two of his mates, brothers, were sent to The Solomons with the NZ Navy after the US forces had attacked and occupied Gaudalcanal. The kiwis were too puny a force to be actively useful, but this did not stop my old man and his mates from contributing to the war effort.
Acting beyond the call of duty, their self-guided mission consisted of running a two-way smuggling racket between Auckland and Honiara. Using their advantages as petty officers they brought alcohol in from NZ and traded it with the Americans for tobacco and other luxuries, which they then shipped back to the land of the long white cloud and re-sold at a patriotic prices.
Doubtless this was a matter of deep personal consolation to the Americans as their services were and still remain “dry” and made a great contribution to the defeat of Imperial Japan.
debionay
China will show their displeasure no doubt. However if they were going to risk a nuclear war it would be over the inhabited island of Taiwan not these uninhabited ones.
davidwh 1086
‘The dawn service at Woorim is always moving and well attended by people from aged to very young. It expresses what ANZAC Day is about’.
Yes David. Local commemorations are generally free of the politicisation I refer to.
As are my locals. I went to the Marion RSL rather than the Brighton Jetty in recent years. The RSL follows up with speeches, tributes and many such things, which enhances the meaning of the day.
another photogenic effort by our PM
https://twitter.com/sallymcmanus/status/459645890890702848/photo/1/large
sprocket
Prince George must be smart. It looks like he wants out of there
crikey whitey@1108
I would feel much more comfortable if France was made the focus of a WWI commemoration.
Surely it is a little embarrassing to be imposing on the good will of a country we invaded?
Much better to be holding a commemoration in a country where Australia and NZ are seen as liberators.
Alternatively, if we are to persist with Gallipoli (and I am sure we will) I think there should be more involvement of Turkey and a shift in the emphasis to the tragedy of war and the reconciliation of former enemies.
deblonay@1109
That sort of unilateralism undercuts efforts to have other disputes over islands and territorial waters resolved through arbitration rather than ‘might is right’.
Already the Chinese have been trying bullying tactics against the Philippines over an Island claimed by both plus Vietnam.
Bemused.
I was about to say your recollections of your Dad are a mix of the poignant and humorous. Thank you.
Yes, you hit the mark on 1115. All points.
Sorry if a post is unanswered.
I have to drive someone home now.
[1115..bemused]
I thought the Turks had become “hosts” to the ANZACS these days.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/22935347/anzac-day-2014-turks-welcome-australians-and-remember-gallipoli-campaign-in-exuberant-style/
Anzac Day means many things, to be sure. But for me it invokes a series of interrelated feelings – the commemoration of loss; the hope expressed by reconciliation between former foes; and gratitude for peace (a peace which is as mysterious to me as the wars now also seem). They add up to sorrow and humility. Surely it makes sense to share these things with the descendants of those who also endured.
[Turgut Kamcaz, the son of the man who was Turkey’s oldest surviving Gallipoli veteran, waves Australian and Turkish flags at Gallipoli Cove
For the Turks, remembering Anzac Day is an entirely different affair to the sombre tone at dawn services across Australia.
Turkey’s main service remembering the Gallipoli campaign was held on Thursday, at the southern tip of the peninsula.
It was a triumphant celebration of Turkey’s military might.
After all, they did overcome their attackers in the 1915 campaign.
At the ceremony, the colourful Ottoman Army Band performed, with their distinctive style of dress and forceful battle chants – in the Ottoman era, the band would march into battle in an attempt to scare the enemy.
Veterans welcome focus on Anzac legacy
Turkey’s veterans play a large part in the commemorations, much as Australian veterans do on Anzac Day.
Kadri Tanis is one such veteran; he fought in Turkey’s 1974 war in Cyprus.
Mr Tan displayed the warm-hearted nature of his countrymen, most of whom welcome the large Australian presence every April 25.
“Once we were enemies, but now we are friends,” he said.
“We are always happy to see you here.”
Another elderly Turk, 78-year-old Turgut Kamcaz, shares the sentiment.
“I went to Australia last year and it made me so happy,” he said.
Mr Kamcaz’s father was the oldest surviving Turkish Gallipoli veteran.]
@BBCr4today: LISTEN – Pet Shop Boys’ Neil Tennant on the band’s tribute to war-time codebreaker Alan Turing http://t.co/PgmQOoOlf3 http://t.co/6Vvd9zrd8H
crikey whitey@1117
Dad was a humorous guy, possibly partly a coping mechanism. I have inherited some of it.
At the urging of his youngest grandson, he wrote his war memoirs which was eventually self published as a book.
Several of his colleagues had beaten him to the punch so he decided to put a different slant on it by focusing on the lighter side and he has some hilarious stories in it. The ‘exploding railway station’ is one of many, but much funnier in the longer form.
Another cracker yarn is about a bloke from outback Qld who managed to convince a group of Poms (for a while at least) that things were not too good back at home on the farm. The farm was a ‘walking stick farm ‘ and relied on the prevailing wind to put the bend in the walking sticks. 😛
Supposedly, that year the wind had come from the opposite direction and they looked like getting stuck with a would lot of left handed walking sticks they would not be able to sell. 😀
Goodnight
According to this report:
http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/d616342d-775f-4115-bcfa-2816a1da77bf/files/nggi-quarterly-update-dec13.pdf
CO2 equivalent emissions between December 2012 and December 2013 dropped by 0.8%.
The carbon ‘tax’ is working. Tony Abbott is a farquing idiot.
On the other hand, it won’t do to sentimentalise the Ottoman Turks either. Among my many friends these days I number quite a few of Greek heritage. Their family histories take them back to Smyrna and Anatolia and the so-called pontic genocide, from which their ancestors fled…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_genocide
[The systematic massacre and deportation of Greeks in Asia Minor, a program which had come into effect in 1914, was a precursor to the atrocities perpetrated by both the Greek and Turkish armies during the Greco-Turkish War, a conflict which followed the Greek landing at Smyrna in May 1919 and continued until the retaking of Smyrna by the Turks and the Great Fire of Smyrna in September 1922.
An estimated 50,000 and to 100,000 Greeks and Armenians perished in the fire and accompanying massacres. According to Norman M. Naimark “more realistic estimates range between 10,000 to 15,000” for the casualties of the Great Fire of Smyrna. Some 150,000 to 200,000 Greeks were expelled after the fire, while about 30,000 able-bodied Greek and Armenian men were deported to the interior of Asia Minor, most of whom were executed on the way or died under brutal conditions. There were also massacres of Turks carried out by the Hellenic troops during the occupation of western Anatolia from May 1919 to September 1922.]
[1123…ShowsOn]
This is a complete indictment of the eejits now in power. The replacement policy, the ERF, has been thrown together with so little thought it seems designed to fail. It is maddening.
briefly@1124
I think all the bad things of the past have to be acknowledged with proper remorse (not sure that is quite the word I want), the victims descendants can reconcile with them, and then we can move on.
Melbourne has a large number of Turkish-Australians and they seem to fit in well to the rest of the Australian community.
They serve as a reassuring presence for those concerned about Moslem migration as they provide a model of success.
I just checked the Age poll “Do you believe the Coalition’s ‘direct action’ policy is an effective way to reduce carbon emissions?” Linked here this morning: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/white-paper-leaves-carbon-questions-unanswered-20140424-zqz2q.html
The result from just under 3,000 votes is 97% “No”, an extraordinary result even allowing for the usual disclaimers for this sort of poll. No credible authority supports the policy, even Coalition supporters think it’s a crock (of course most Coaltion supporters think it’s not necessary. It is quite likely that even Greg Hunt knows in his heart that the policy is a steaming pile of crap.
So why are they doing it? Is it a slush fund for Liberal mates?
Now for the next red herring I suppose.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/04/22/mh370-missing-news-indian-ocean-doubts_n_5190761.html
[1126….bemused]
We have a good deal to be thankful for, there is no doubt about that. Fear, hatred and contumely, these are our distant cousins, the villains in exile. They have to be watched and kept away.
[1127…Steve777]
The LNP expect and hope the policy will fail, giving them the excuse to scrap it entirely. The White Paper exposes the policy as a sham.
[So why are they doing it? Is it a slush fund for Liberal mates?]
The White Paper contains the admission that they do not know how much abatement they will get for their money. They just do not know. The implied price they will pay – between about $3.60 and $6.00/ tonne CO2-e – is just not enough to buy much abatement.
It could turn out to be a slush fund. Anything is possible with this lot.
[The LNP expect and hope the policy will fail, giving them the excuse to scrap it entirely. The White Paper exposes the policy as a sham.]
Not before spending $2.5 billion for nothing.
Actually events will pass the Coalition government by, because most likely China and the U.S. will come to some sort of an agreement late this year that will make the Coalition’s policy look like a joke.
[The White Paper contains the admission that they do not know how much abatement they will get for their money. They just do not know. The implied price they will pay – between about $3.60 and $6.00/ tonne CO2-e – is just not enough to buy much abatement.]
Yeah, I like the part where it says that a price will be set for abatement.
but they never explain what the price will be and who will be willing to pay for it.
Corrupt Capitalists settle anti trust case, having prevented competition for staff.
An Intel recruiter, for instance, asked Paul S. Otellini, then Intel’s chief executive, about a deal with Google.
“We have nothing signed,” Mr. Otellini wrote back. “We have a handshake ‘no recruit’ between Eric and myself. I would not like this broadly known.”
Eric E. Schmidt, then Google’s chief executive, wrote in another email in the case: “I don’t want to create a paper trail over which we can be sued later.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/25/technology/settlement-silicon-valley-antitrust-case.html?hpw&rref=business&_r=0
This conspiracy theory is going all out:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/04/23/missing-plane-mh370-conspiracy-theory-shot-down-america-_n_5197919.html?utm_hp_ref=uk
[1133….ShowsOn]
The White Paper is a woefully poor bit of work. Considering the huge amount of anaylsis that went into the CPRS, its successors and associated policies, the ERF is a thorough joke. They have out it up expecting it to be chucked out by The Senate or to fail to get off the ground, or to be scrapped by the next election. It is a transparent fraud.
Shadow appears to run through fans at a game in Hernando Siles Stadium
The silhouette also appears to run straight through the barrier
It is not the first time a ghostly figure has been spotted at the stadium
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2611010/Football-spectators-spooked-ghost-appears-run-fans-match-Bolivia.html#ixzz2zttBd4ZX
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
Guytaur
rectly
China is not interested in Taiwan di. China like every other power needs to protect its borders and its key strategic links.
Now for China its key issues is sea lanes, especially for oil and iron, and the various islands in the China sea are part of that strategic necessity. Have a look at the map.
China’s sea trade must negotiate the narrow gap between Okinawa and Taiwan or the South China sea. Forget right and wrong etc if China feels encircled by enemies then it WILL take steps to ensure it has at least one friendly easily defended sea port. China will take steps to defend its sea access and will be getting VERY twitchy by the idea of a militarized Japan. I think that China WILL seize small islands in the South China sea, for strategic reasons. The US will have to decide if it wants a hot war on the topic.
It is ANZAC Day. What do you think Gallipoli was all about. it was the SEA LANES of the Dardanelles.
Another strategic necessity is an oil/gas pipeline from Russia, since it may not be able to get oil by sea if there is a hot war in the China Sea. This means that Russia will not care much if it has to cut supply to Europe. It has an alternative market.
[The White Paper is a woefully poor bit of work. Considering the huge amount of anaylsis that went into the CPRS, its successors and associated policies, the ERF is a thorough joke. They have out it up expecting it to be chucked out by The Senate or to fail to get off the ground, or to be scrapped by the next election. It is a transparent fraud.]
And Greg Michael Hunt releases it late Thursday afternoon before ANZAC day!
He wins the award for completely selling out his principles just so he could become a cabinet minister.
SO, the politics of climate change have become utterly toxic in this country, a product of cynicism and weakness…
Well it seems Japan at least playing hard ball with Obama on TPP.
Compared to our current gov.
see ya’all
[SO, the politics of climate change have become utterly toxic in this country, a product of cynicism and weakness…]
Well there was a rough consensus before Abbott became leader.
Abbott is the climate denial Prime Minister. All his talk about infrastructure is just bullshit when he can’t handle this critical economic, social and environmental issue.
Nice to see I’m not the only nutjob who thinks Diego Garcia has something to do with the disappearance of MH-370.
The plane could certainly have landed in DG, and may have been at least headed there.
But the Yanks are notoriously trigger happy. The pundit mentioned in the link above cites the TWA Jumbo and Flight 93 as shoot-downs.
You dont have to go that far. The one he DOES cite – Uss Vincennes shooting down the Iranian passenger plane – plus the Russian shooting down of the Korean Airlines plane establishes that nervous military types can have itchy fingers when it comes to shooting first and asking questions later. Shooting down civilian aircfaft by the military already happened at least twice within relatively recent memory, why not a third time?
Heckleand call it a tinfoil-hat, conspiracy theory if you must but almost everything that was thought impossible about this missing flight has turned out to be possible. Almost nothing is unprecedented – crazy pilots, possible hijackers, shoot-downs – have all happened multiple times in the past.
Diego Garcia is right there in the Indian Ocean, not too far south of what may have been the last reported sighting, in the southern Maldives.
The pilot may have been been simulating landings on Diego Garcia(he certainly had the data bases available).
And the whole purpose of Diego Garcia is to act as a covert base, when the need arises. It would have CIA, NSA, FBI plus military intelligence by the bucketloads present and looking for something to do to justify their existence on the island.
Shooting down a potential “bad guy” would be – and has been in the past – right up their alley.
Surprisingly, for a country that has by far the strongest and most technologically sophisticated military assets in the Indian Ocean, and in space above it, the US is saying very little.
They missed the lot – didn’t see the plane, don’t know anything, can’t find it and now they’re telling us it will take years, if at all, to dredge up any wreckage..
They’re letting tinpot Australia and the corrupt, confused, disorganized Malaysians head the search. Even the Chinese are involved in it (although the fact that they were searching well outside the official zone a few weeks ago when they heard that first “ping” shows they don’t really trust the official line).
Something just doesn’t ring true about this disappearance as advertised by official channels.
On the other hand, the elements of some kind of Diego Garcia involvement all have precedents – covert base, presence of military intelligence, bizarre course of the plane, shoot-downs of civilian aircraft.
It may be a tsretch putting them all into one grab-bag… too many unusual (though precedented) incidents combined… but then again, just ask anyone who had to jump off one of the Twin Towers in 2001 whether when they went to work that day they thought about BOTH towers being utterly demolished by a couple of planes flown by amateurs.
Of course you CAN’T ask them. They’re dead.
Daretotread_______
_________
Your correct re those central asian piplines
An asian times writer calls that area..Pipelineistan…and many lines already exist to carry Russian oil and gas to China and many more are underway
I said before that Putin’s visit to China in May will see as you said in your post I think…a great deal of activity on the China-Russia energy link…it is said it will be a Trillion Dollars worth…but NOT in US dollars as both countries want to cut the US Dollars out of such trade
This will BTW… effect the value of the US dollar
SO, the politics of climate change have become utterly toxic in this country, a product of cynicism and weakness…
And yet just 5 years ago we were close to consensus. It shows the ability of powerful, well-funded vested interests to defeat good policy when it disadvantages them. Peddle enough lies and disinformation, fear, uncertainty and doubt and your in. If the tobacco industry had been as well organised back in tge 60s and 70s we’d still have cigarette ads on TV and 60% of the population over 15 would still be smoking. We’re following the USA, where they can’t get a decent health system or sensible gun laws and no hope of tackling climate change.
[The plane could certainly have landed in DG, and may have been at least headed there.]
Oh FFS! If it landed there it would’ve been detected on US radar!
[If the tobacco industry had been as well organised back in tge 60s and 70s we’d still have cigarette ads on TV and 60% of the population over 15 would still be smoking. We’re following the USA, where they can’t get a decent health system or sensible gun laws and no hope of tackling climate change.]
The Tobacco lobby was well organised and spread the meme that dangers of smoking were caused by pesticides used on tobacco crops, and not the tobacco itself.
Shows on didn’t read all of my sentence or indeed the post where landing on Diego Garcia was only ONE scenario.
It may have been headed there and yes, detected on DG’s radar, then shot down as an unidentified threat.
1139
His middle name is actually Andrew.