Easter has meant that only the regular weekly pollsters have reported this week, which means Essential Research and Morgan. The latter polls weekly but reports fortnightly, which I deal with by dividing each fortnightly result into two data points, each with half the published sample size. Neither Essential nor Morgan is radically off beam, so this week’s movements involve a correction after last week’s Greens outlier from Nielsen. This is not to say that Nielsen’s Greens surge was measuring nothing at all, the 17% result perhaps having been partly a reflection of it being the poll most proximate to the WA Senate election. In fact, both of the new results this week find the Greens at their highest level since at least the last election, and probably a good while earlier. Their 11% rating in Essential may not appear too spectacular, but it comes from what is the worst polling series for them by some distance – indeed, the only one the BludgerTrack model does not deem to be biased in their favour. Nonetheless, their rating in BludgerTrack this week comes off 1.8% on last week’s Nielsen-driven peak.
The dividend from the Greens’ loss has been divided between other parties in such a way as to produce essentially no change on two-party preferred. However, state relativities have changed in such a way as to cost Labor three seats and its projected majority, illustrating once again the sensitivity of Queensland, where a 0.8% shift has made two seats’ worth of difference. The New South Wales result has also shifted 0.6% to the Coalition, moving a third seat back into their column. Another change worth noting is a 2.4% move to Labor in Tasmania, which is down to a methodological change – namely the inclusion, for Tasmania only, of the state-level two-party preferred results that Morgan has taken to publishing. I had not been putting this data to use thus far, as the BludgerTrack model runs off primary votes and the figures in question are presumably respondent-allocated preferences besides. However, the paucity of data for Tasmania is such that I’ve decided it’s worth my while to extract modelled primary votes from Morgan’s figures, imperfect though they may be. The change has not made any difference to the seat projection, this week at least.
Finally, I’ve amused myself by producing primary vote and two-party preferred trendlines for each of the five mainland states, which you can see below. These suggest that not too much has separated New South Wales and Victoria in the changes recorded over the current term, leaving aside their very different starting points. However, whereas the Coalition has had a very gentle upward trend this year in Victoria and perhaps also New South Wales, their decline looks to have resumed lately in Queensland. Last week I noted that six successive data points I was aware of had Labor ahead on two-party preferred in Queensland, including five which are in the model and a Morgan result which is not. That’s now extended to eight with the availability of two further data points this week. The other eye-catching result in the charts below is of course from Western Australia, which clearly shows the effects of the Senate election with respect to both the Greens and Palmer United. The current gap between Labor and the Greens is such that the latter could well win lower house seats at Labor’s expense on these numbers – not that I recommend holding my breath waiting for that to happen.
Swaneee! Mick, next week!
RB,
Very poignant and thought-provoking. Thank you.
Anzac Day should in my view be a very low key affair. I simply could not watch any coverage on TV today. It frankly makes me sick to see it played out as just another reality TV show.
Thanks AC.
BK,
[BK,
[God moves in strange ways apparently. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-25/pope-john-paul-ii-crucifix-crushes-man-to-death-in-cevo-italy/5411980%5D
Oh, and it seems the victim was a young disabled man who couldn’t move quickly enough to get out of danger.
What’s next in your bag of tricks – leper jokes?
roger b
I didn’t watch either.
Monbiot on Lovelock.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/georgemonbiot/2014/apr/24/james-lovelocks-book-genius-defence
[But his achievements are real ones, and are currently being celebrated with an exhibition in the Science Museum. He invented the electron capture detector, which has greatly enhanced our ability to detect small quantities of pollutants, and was critical to the detection of chlorofluorocarbons in the atmosphere and the attribution of their responsibility for ozone depletion. (His claims to have invented the microwave oven, on the other hand, are not widely accepted.)
His Gaia hypothesis, while fiercely contested, has changed the way we talk about and understand the Earth. Until I started researching Feral, my book about rewilding, and began to explore new developments in ecology which show the remarkable extent to which some animals engineer the physical environment – to the extent of altering the nature of soils, the behaviour of rivers and the composition of the atmosphere – I was highly sceptical of Lovelock’s hypothesis. It now seems to me that, at the ecological level at any rate, evidence which might support it is accumulating rapidly.]
roger bottomley@1053
Agree with you. It is being taken over by crass commercialism mixed with boganism.
Thanks for your song. I noticed it mentioned Sandakan. What was your dad’s connection?
I spent several years as a teenager living around the corner from a ‘Sandakan Rd’ and thought nothing of it. It wasn’t until many years latter I learnt of the terrible story of the ‘Sandakan Death March’.
I thought that Ben Robert’s speech was excellent and highlighted the long term work that has to be done in supporting the diggers that returned.
@BreakingNews: Ukraine PM: Russian attempts to start conflict in Ukraine will lead to military conflict in Europe – @Reuters http://t.co/xOr3RLlT7t
So, by providing massive taxation concessions to those on the highest incomes, the Budget is losing billions of dollars of forgone revenue. The super system is also failing to relieve pressure on the Aged Pension, since those that are most likely to need it – lower and middle income earners – receive minimal (if any) concessions, which both hinders their ability to build-up a retirement nest egg and discourages them from making additional contributions.
Given that superannuation concessions are such a large drain on the Budget, and overwhelmingly favour the wealthy, it is lamentable that Government has refused to include them in its cutting program.
With tax expenditures defined by the IMF as:
…government revenues foregone as a result of differential, or preferential, treatment of specific sectors, activities, regions, or agents. They can take many forms, including allowances (deductions from the base), exemptions (exclusions from the base), rate relief (lower rates), credits (reductions in liability) and tax deferrals (postponing payments).
The IMF estimates that tax expenditures reduce Australian government revenue by around 8% of GDP – theoretically enough to eliminate Australia’s Budget deficit. In fact, the huge loss of revenues to tax concessions explains why Australia simultaneously has some of the highest personal and company taxes in the world, yet is also one of the lowest taxing countries in the OECD – a contradiction in terms.
ANZAC day for is a dilemma, I come from a military family. My mother and father were 10-12 years old when WWII started, they were taken from their parents in England and evacuated to “safety”, my mother never saw her father again.
My paternal grandfather never served in the Forces, although he did do 22 crossings at Dunkirk in his boat. He laid the PLUTO fuel lines for D-Day but was never shot at. The Merchant Navy is recognised but….
My Uncle was killed at Scapa Flow on the HMS Royal Oak.
I wonder how many of the 22% of the population born overseas feel about today?
As an Australian born overseas I feel no connection to ANZAC day, this is probably wrong, but I am sure many feel the same way.
ruawake@1064
Thanks for that interesting post.
My father served in the RAAF in WWII and was shot at. By the Americans as well as the Germans!
He used to march and go to a reunion with his former comrades in arms but failing health brought an end to both activities.
I admired dad and what he and all the others had done. WWII was a war that had to be fought and won.
But I am becoming increasingly ambivalent about ANZAC day activities and whereas once I may have visited Gallipoli, it has become such that I have no desire to go there. I did visit Kranji war cemetery many years ago and could not help but shed a tear reading some of the headstones. Particularly poignant were those who died within weeks or days of the end of the war.
I confess that the sight of young Aussies wrapped in the flag has never impressed me …. nor the matching beer cooler.
Nevertheless, can anyone explain the following.
On several news broadcasts of the Gallipoli ceremony, there were numerous Australians wearing the flag.
On several news broadcasts of the Villers Bretonneux I did not see one Australian wearing the flag.
Why is this so?
Were the flag wearers a matter of particular interest for the Gallipoli camera-persons, or the Gallipoli story news editors so that they were featured?
Has it got something to do with relative climates at both places?
Are the Australians at each place a different demography?
Is Gallipoli now a pop celebration but not so Villers Bretonneux (yet)?
I found this phenomenon intriguing.
Retweeted by sortius
thinkbroadband.com @thinkbroadband 8m
Recent poll results, responses from those using broadband connection for business and whether it was fit for purpose. pic.twitter.com/MEH5uNbTut
Our future, look at UK again.
[TONY Abbott has been put on notice that his pricey paid parental leave scheme is undermining the ability of Australians to accept a painful budget.
A number of government MPs, many in regional areas across the country, have warned that anxious voters bracing for budget nasties are now calling for the Prime Minister’s signature election policy to be dumped.]
http://www.couriermail.com.au/business/prime-minister-tony-abbott-on-notice-over-paid-parental-leave-plan/story-fnihpj8r-1226895283987
How good is this picture. Shorten shakes hands and talks with the workers while Abbott gets all moist over saying farewell to the royals. Beautiful!
https://twitter.com/ellinghausen/status/459578473585995776
Bemused, Comrade.
My old man, born 1923 went as a very young man to New Guinea, signing up in 1940 aged 17. He never spoke about it and all his family knew was that he was a signal man and that he caught malaria.
Upon his death we went to tell his best friend and war buddy that he had died.
In the conversation, his friend said “you know your father was a very brave man”. I asked how he made this judgement.
He then told the story of the battle for Lae in late 1943. He said that my dad was one of three signallers who sneaked into the centre of Jap occupied Lae to direct the artillery fire.
It was sad to discover this after my dad had died. But of course silence about war events was pretty well par for the course for returned soldiers. That’s just the way it was.
What’s the latest with that plane bizzo at Bali?
I reckon if Tones gets to sit in the cockpit, so should the other guy.
Sauce for the goose and all that.
spur
It wouldn’t enter Abbott brain cell to soil his hand with workers sweat.
I too join the band of those who sometimes see Anzac Day as faux patriotism.
I went to Gallipoli 5-6 years ago, deliberately a few days after the the ceremonies and while they were taking down the seating for the 25th. I found that to be more meaningful rather than caught up with the Contiki crew on their drinking and sex binge around Europe.
While “Lest We Forget” is a true as it ever was, it is now linked into some growing fantasy/heroic/romanticised view of war.
I sometimes wonder when there are large gaps in time between bloody conflicts, how quickly the romance of the battle gains glory while the mass destruction of human life is overlooked.
How else to explain the flocking of all the youth to the flag in 1914? There had not been a serious European war for 40 plus years and the blood and guts were submerged in flag waving patriotism.
spur212,
[How good is this picture. Shorten shakes hands and talks with the workers while Abbott gets all moist over saying farewell to the royals. Beautiful!
https://twitter.com/ellinghausen/status/459578473585995776%5D
In that photo it looks like the Royals have stood him up.
On the other hand, it looks like Marg is ticking him off for something.
The Australian Veterans Line is there 24/7 for crisis support & counselling of returned/serving military personnel. Phone 1800 011 046
psyclaw@1066
BINGO!
The sort of behaviour I was referring to.
Such conduct would be regarded by older generations as appallingly disrespectful and contrary to all the protocols for handling and using the flag. You don’t wear it and you don’t let it tough the ground for example.
The bogans are oblivious to all of this.
Gaytaur…re Ukraine.
______________
The Ukr PM is keen to talk up the prospect of war and hopes to get US involvement too ,but several Euro sources and some US ones too,say that the bulk of his armed forces simply won’t fight in the Eastern region
Those who have done so are recruited from the right-wing gangs in Kiev and are unreliable…as we have seen
Also the Russians obviously intend to just wait for the collapse of the Ukr economy which faces huge debts with huge payments due in the coming weeks,and a huge unpaid gas bill owing to the Russians
My quess from all this that the Russian may soon just cut off the gas ands that will face the Kiev regime with a major domestic crisis..and the debt repayments will fall upon the EU or the USA …none of whom want to pay the great sums needed…sums promised so far are chicken=feed.and Ukr may just have to default…which will cut them off from world bank funds
Acerbic Conehead
Telling Tones to try and “Stop the Gropes” ?
Abbott protection detail
Debionay
Two things. I was commenting on what Kerry said not the Ukraine PM,
Second are you going to call the British Fascist? Ukip not in power yet.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/pictured-moment-raf-fighter-jets-3454351
Lizzie…re Lovelock
_________
I read his book “Gai’s Revenge” and it greatly alarmed me…and made me focus much on the whole climate change matter
He paints a very dire picture of the future for our kids and grand-kids…so much so that I rather tend not to discuss it much with them fearing that they will become too alarmed….they must face all that in the future
It also left me a dread asnd anger against the Denialists..,.all of them…contempt isn’t a strong enogh word to descibe that scurvy crew…Bolt/Abbott/ and the rest
[
ruawake
Posted Friday, April 25, 2014 at 7:28 pm | Permalink
spur
It wouldn’t enter Abbott brain cell to soil his hand with workers sweat.
]
Your being a bit harsh, I’m sure he has more than one.
Lest we forget.
I decided not to attend the Dawn Service, a departure from previous years, my misgivings over manipulation as I was dubious to begin with when the day, under Howard, became increasingly politicised, with the same intent of the revisionism apparent in the waging of History Culture Wars. Which too often realises unacceptable jingoism and inappropriate behaviour, here and abroad in particularly our younger people.
I did again watch one only broadcast ceremony, that of Villers-Bretonneux, a commemoration which I think deeply moving, ticking boxes for most of the right reasons, any hijacking for jingoistic purposes either muted or barely perceptible.
Tempered it is by the deep and lengthy association with Australia and the care and love bestowed on the departed soldiers by the French and our own.
Not that I forget the slain and maimed of Gallipoli, nor appreciate and remember them any less. For those who posted here today on their family history, my sincere consolation. And thanks for the poetic beauty of other contributions.
This site is worthy of a full read. It includes references to Fromelles. A great effort for all the right reasons.
N’Oublions Jamais l’Australie—Let us never forget Australia (Villers-Bretonneux)
Back in Australia, women and children also ‘did their bit’. Throughout the war patriotic funds had been set up, the proceeds of which were to help people directly affected by the war. By 1920 cities and towns across Australia were ‘adopting’ French towns that had been scarred by war. The City of Melbourne adopted Villers-Bretonneux.
Using the slogan ‘By Diggers defended, by Victorians mended’, an appeal went out to the people of Melbourne to help their friends in France.
The town, in ruins by the end of war, had been devastated. School children were urged to each donate one penny to the cause, yet businesses, church groups, women’s leagues and RSL groups across the nation responded. In all 10,000 pounds sterling was raised and then matched by the Victorian Department of Education.
The exterior of Villers-Bretonneux town hall today.
Today in the town, there is a great deal of evidence that the relationship forged between Australians and the people of the area is still strong. Memorials and plaques recall the bravery and selflessness of the Australians who fought there. The town hall flies the French and Australian flags and the building itself is decorated with kangaroos. On a hilltop nearby, the white tower of the Australian National Memorial is visible in the distance.
Walk down the main street, Rue de Melbourne, turn into Rue Victoria and you’ll come across the local school, Ecole Victoria. The pennies raised in Australia were used to rebuild this school. On the wall of the playground in large letters are the words ‘N’Oublions Jamais l’Australie’.
In 2009, the kindness shown by Australians almost a century ago is to be repaid. The children of Villers-Bretonneux are raising money—they want to rebuild one of the schools that was burnt down in the February 2009 bushfires.
‘We have not forgotten the Australians’, says Pauline Lefebore a 10 year old student at Ecole Victoria. (Quoted in The Australian, 2009).
http://australia.gov.au/about-australia/australian-story/australians-on-the-western-front
My Grandfather was at Gallipoli and was mustard gassed. My father fought in New Guinea.
Neither EVER marched on ANZAC day and regarded it as jingoistic nonsense.
Debionay
Here you go have a look at what Kerry has had to say yourself
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27152019
The dawn service at Woorim is always moving and well attended by people from aged to very young. It expresses what ANZAC Day is about.
@FinancialTimes: .@fastFT: Russian central bank unexpectedly hikes rates http://t.co/6wxdj8Jtfm
psyclaw@1070
My dad was born in 1918 so was not as young as yours. He was among the first lot to go overseas in the RAAF to the Middle East where he served in Palestine, Egypt, Libya and then across to Sicily and Italy where his squadron was sent back to Australia in late 1944 just as they were about to get re-equipped with Mustangs.
Dad was an airframe fitter which means he patched all the bullet holes in his squadron’s planes, Kittyhawks. His squadron, 450, was part of the Desert Air Force which drew their motto ‘Harass’ from a derisory reference Lord Haw Haw made about their ‘harassing operations’. They called themselves ‘The Desert Harassers’.
The Desert Airforce was led for a time by a Kiwi, Air Vice-Marshal Conningham and under his leadership they worked out the close support tactics for working with the Army which proved highly successful.
Dad died in 2008, aged 90. He never laid claim to having done anything notable or brave. He wouldn’t have said if he had. He was just one of the many that served.
Gaytuar re UKIP
__________
No I don’t think UKIP are fascists..was that serious question?..far-rightists perhaps but playing on that old English fear/dislike of Europe
The economic crisis has made them focus blame on the EU ,and they are a real menace to the Tories,polling well and taking a huge chunk from the Tories…whose defeat that may well bring about
In a few weeks the UK has a major round of Municipal elections and UKIP will do very well I think…in England(not elsewhere ..it’s an English disease)
I don’t think they be compared with the neo-fascists in places like Greece/Hungary and also France where the failure of the Socialists in power… has helped Marie Le Pen N.Front(now he old father WAS a fascist!)
Some of such… imitate old fascists with neo-nazxi symbols(the Greek one have a sort of Swastika as do the Hungarians…and as from my reading … so do”Svoboda” the neo-nazi party in the Ukr…who are a law to themselves in Kiev where the regime is pretty week…and they honour a war criminal Bandera who led a military unit that fou
Some people in the USA…and elsewhere … don’t want to face these facts which conflict with their desire to damm the Russians
Debionay
Listen to Kerry’s speech. Understand Russia is in the wrong here. For the reasons Kerry putlined over the last 7 days.
re p0ost 1089…a few words were ommitted
The sentance should have read…and they honour a war criminal Bandera who led a military unit that fought ..”.for the Nazis in WW2 against the Russians”
crikey whitey
It has always amazed and impressed me how much appreciation the people of France have shown after so many years. This is a kiwi example.
[LIBERATION BY NEW ZEALANDERS AND LE QUESNOY’S ETERNAL GRATITUDE
– the memorial;
– the New Zealand gate of honour;
– the memorial garden;
– the New Zealand Avenue;
– the Dr Averill Street and Kindergarten;
The medieval-like assault on Le Quesnoy captured the imagination of the townspeople, who were overjoyed at their release from a four-year bondage. Ever since, the town has maintained a strong affinity with New Zealand. So, too, has the nearby village of Beaudignies, which, in 2000, renamed its square ‘Place du Colonel Blyth’ in honour of one of its liberators.
To thank them for the incredible military feat that they achieved, the town of Le Quesnoy has offered New Zealanders a part of their wall forever, opposite the memorial. When you visit the memorial, you will find yourself, as it were, in New Zealand.]
http://www.ambafrance-nz.org/Le-Quesnoy-New-Zealand-Fraternal
Gaytaur
_-_______
The USA made a grave mistake in organising the coup in Kiev against an elected govt… which may have been corrupt…but that alarmed the Russians who simply don’t want NATO forces and misilles on their borders
The US wants to stop the Russian/Eurasian/Chinese strategy and it’s links with Europe…with Russian energy as the basis
There are bigger issue than Ukr at stake here
I have great fears for the neo-cons and their war talk and their failure to realise the dangerts here
The neo-cons of course work for total US hegemony…over all other states
Watch nexy month when Putin visits China and signs an immense contract for gas with the Chinese ,who are I suspect alarmed over US policies too
I am not sure what the USA hoped to achieve in fomenting a coup in the Ukraine, installing their own puppet, and then agitating Russia to try and get them involved in an internal Ukraine conflict.
Did they really think they could get Russia out of Crimea, was that their goal? Truly stupid if it was.
It cost them $5bn to install their regime (but got 40 tons gold).
Oil fracking fields are really not that much of an incentive, unless they are massive. Agricultural resources…but that would suit Europe better, who from the start haven’t been keen on this US inspired project.
Or is it simply US hubris and anger, totally pissed at China & Russia stymieing their planned coup in Syria (with Turkey doing the chemical false flag attacks on civilians – as per the taped phone call). All for a pipeline?
Or is it their old old plan of keeping Russia’s geopolitical power under control by creating chaos and conflict on its borders?
That this is a US (and others I wont mention) planned activity is known – as other taped phone conversations confirm without doubt.
Russia has a bit of a dilemma. Does it allow itself to be provoked by the Ukraine puppet going out and targeting ethnic Russians in the Ukraine? Or does it simply arm Russians in the Ukraine and let things take their natural course….or do they just sit back and watch the place collapse into bankruptcy…and let others pay Gazprom’s bills.
The big problem the US has is that Europe will not want their gas cut off under any circumstances – so the USA cannot push things too far bu actually bringing in sanctions that actually hurt Russia.
The USA’s other soft spot is of course their dependance on foreign oil and the ease at which Russia could cause chaos in those places – which in turn would crash US markets and dollar. So if they push Russia in some over the top manner it is the US and Europe that stand to lose and suffer most.
debionay
Iam talking about events as they are now. Not some alleged coup. If Russia does not back down it will come to a shooting war, Russia against Nato and allies.
Kerry’s speech was just short of a declaration of war
Bemused, Comrade
So many of them were so young weren’t they.
And given the slow transport of the day, guys like your old man were really a long way from home…. an ordeal of sorts on its own, let alone roughing it, sleepin in tents in the middle east and eatin pretty crap rations, and then having others trying to kill you.
[I have great fears for the neo-cons and their war talk and their failure to realise the dangerts here]
The US has a massive strategic disadvantage over energy supply and supply lines. Unless these neo-cons are fundamentalist Christians wanting to bring on the end times…. However as the US is bankrupt and has no way of reversing its $1tn yearly deficit, and needs to print out of thin air…they may think a major global conflict is a way out and excuse to cancel debts….. Who knows how the rabid neo cons think.
This the US fomenting the coup ignores the reality of those people we saw on the streets. They were no figment of imagination and thus if the US did start it they had fertile ground on which to do so,
Guytaur
As I understand it (and proved I think from phone tapes) the USA was up to its eyeballs in encouraging the civil unrest and sit-ins in Kiev. When the then Unkraine government finally used violence to push them out of the square the USA yel;led shock horror and supported the “interim government”
Now in Eestern Ukraine Russia probably is following the US example and encouraging civil unrest. Ukraine yesterday killed some protesters. Why are you not yelling shock horror and demanding they resign.
The thing is that the USA has been promoting civil unrest in Ukraine, and even in Russia. It seems NOW as if Russia is saying two can play at that game.
The ONLY answer is genuine self determination by the locals. The UN if it genuinely cares about the PEOPLE of Ukraine would arrange province by province votes, with options for a) staying in Ukraine,or b) becoming independent. Joining Russia would not be an option, although of course an independent state may have that option in the future. Votes above 60% would be binding. Votes in the middle range would opt for status quo with a second election in 24 months.
The current govt were before the coup having both sides shot on the streets.