Nielsen has this week thrown a spanner into the BludgerTrack works, producing a dramatic shift on the basis of a result that’s yet to be corroborated by anybody else. The big mover is of course the Greens, who have shot up five points to the giddy heights of 15.4%, a result I wouldn’t attach much credit to until it’s backed by more than one data point. Only a small share of the gain comes at the expense of Labor, who have accordingly made a strong gain on two-party preferred and are in majority government territory on the seat projection. A further point of interest with respect to the Nielsen poll is that the two-party preferred response on respondent-allocated preferences, which is not published by Fairfax, is at 54.5-45.5 considerably stronger for Labor than the headline result from previous election preferences. This may reflect a swelling in Greens support from the ranks of disaffected Labor identifiers, and a consequent increase in the Greens preference flow to Labor in comparison with the 2013 election result – which may in turn suggest the headline two-party result from the poll flattered the Coalition a little.
The other aspect of the latest BludgerTrack result which may raise an eyebrow is the strength of the Labor swing in Queensland, which also blew out excessively in January before moderating considerably thereafter. The Queensland breakdown from this week’s Nielsen played its part, showing Labor ahead 53-47 for a swing of around 10%. However, in this case the Nielsen is not out on a limb, providing the model with one of five Queensland data points from the past four weeks which all show Labor in the lead, with two-party results ranging from 51.1% to 56.5% (keeping in mind that sample sizes are in some cases below 200). The scattered state results provided by Morgan are not included in the model, but its poll release last week reported that Labor held a lead in Queensland of 51-49.
Nielsen also provides new data points for leadership ratings, and in keeping with the general weakness of the poll for the Coalition, their addition to the model puts Bill Shorten’s net approval rating back in front of Tony Abbott’s, and returns the narrowing trajectory to the preferred prime minister trendlines.
kezza2@1371
And this is why it is completely pointless to argue about whether or not it is correct to lie to children. While we can all agree it is undesirable, sometimes it is simply necessary, to avoid worse consequences.
Children do not have the necessary cognitive ability to correctly assess why telling the truth is better than lying, and no amount of “explaining” or “punishment” is going to help them understand it until they do. All you can do is condition their behaviour until they can draw the correct conclusions themselves. For my money, developing that ability is actually the main thing that differentiates a child from an adult.
People who insist on treating young children as if they were just younger versions of mature, sophisticated adults are fooling themselves.
Young children’s brains are yet to form some of the fundamental wiring they need to understand this kind of thing. Even most teenagers don’t have it yet.
Or some adults, as this debate demonstrates.
[You sure about that? ]
Pretty much. The increasingly presidential nature of Australian politics has been apparent for a while now.
My mother had this annoying thing where she said she could tell if we were lying because our eyes were spinning.
I was always puzzled, because I knew I wasn’t lying, but she was adamant that my eyes were spinning…I didn’t doubt HER honesty for a second!
[zoomster
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2014 at 4:41 pm | PERMALINK
and kezza’s response to psyclaw is a CLASSIC strawman…]
And just because you have no defence for you own lying (to get out of trouble) you attack me. Well done.
I’ve asked psyclaw many times now to tell me how lying is ESSENTIAL to mental well-being, and what are the secret questions that everyone lies about.
He’s been unable to answer either query over a longish period of time.
Instead he puts up a construction of what I think of what Fran actually thinks.
Fran’s here now. She can stick up for herself. And psyclaw, if he had any balls at all, would actually answer my queries. He doesn’t need you to use your offended self to stick up for him.
[DisplayName
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2014 at 4:44 pm | PERMALINK
kezza, I believe psyclaw professionally deals with the aftermath of abuse. Which – while bringing that up may be some kind of fallacious appeal to authority (by me) – may help with understanding]
Once again, if he actually deals with the aftermath of abuse, he’s not very good at recognising it, and secondly, shouldn’t he be able to answer a question instead of continuing to dancing round it, and trying to justify an appeal to the dishonesty in all of us, as a reasonable defence.
https://twitter.com/Leroy_Lynch/status/457412938039451648
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/top-end-deserts-giles-and-party/story-e6frgczx-1226889455541#
[Top End deserts Giles and party
AMOS AIKMAN The Australian April 19, 2014 12:00AM
SUPPORT has crashed for the Northern Territory’s Country Liberal Party, which stands to lose crucial seats across Darwin and its majority at the election.
Chief Minister Adam Giles and his deputy are both on the nose with voters.
Independent polling obtained exclusively by The Weekend Australian shows the CLP government would be ejected after barely half a term if an election were held now, retaining barely half the 16 seats it won in 2012.
Labor stands to gain several seats, but probably not enough to achieve a majority of 13, meaning the balance of power in the next parliament could be held by independents.
The phone poll by Telereach of 881 respondents in the greater Darwin region on Wednesday shows the CLP’s primary vote has plummeted from about 53 per cent after the 2012 election to 38 per cent now.
Counting only voters with no political leaning, the CLP’s primary vote is 33 per cent. Labor’s primary vote remains stable at 37 per cent, with about 10 per cent support for the Greens.
On a two-party-preferred basis, the CLP’s vote has sunk 10 per cent from 57 per cent in 2012 to 47 per cent. The swing is the same as that recorded at a by-election in the greater Darwin region last weekend. If this was reflected at the next election, at least three cabinet ministers and one backbencher would lose their seats.]
More in the article. Note its just the urban areas, rural polling is hard to do in the NT.
Lizzie 1391
In a general sense, I think that lying to protect another person is often considered a virtuous act in our society. Lying to protect or advantage oneself, is not.
DisplayName
Yes I know but still can’t except the very mildest(and I mean mild) currys
Lizzie
Yes, your examples are certainly often referred to as white lies.
“White lies” is really a euphemism for acceptable lies.
Of course whether or not a lie is an “acceptable” lie is a very subjective judgement in some areas of behaviour and we could chew over examples for days.
One classic area which every parent faces is to do with the emerging sexual behaviour of their kids.
On one end of the scale, some parents want to (inappropriately) know in fine detail what their adolescent child is up to as the adolescent years progress, whilst at the other end some certainly do not wish to know even generally, let alone in detail.
Those in the former category are likely to be told lies, and as a general rule I think those lying kids behaving appropriately.
What is about curry?
If I told someone I didn’t like chicken, for example, people wouldn’t suddenly start pushing chicken recipes upon me, or suggesting that if I ate more chicken I’d change my mind.
But if I tell someone I don’t like curry, all of a sudden there’s a concerted effort made to convert me — with all the fervour usually only associated with religion.
It mystifies me.
[Independent polling obtained exclusively by The Weekend Australian shows the CLP government would be ejected after barely half a term if an election were held now, retaining barely half the 16 seats it won in 2012.]
Not surprising given the upheaval the NT govt has had recently with some of its MPs.
P1
I acknowledged earlier that lying by children has a different character than lying amongst adults. Your developmental point is a fair one.
That said, children do need to start exploring the ethical implications of lying from at least early high school.
kezza
[And just because you have no defence for you own lying (to get out of trouble) you attack me.]
Er, what?
I don’t need to defend my own lying. I accept that I sometimes do lie, just like everyone else on God’s planet, and I don’t beat myself up about it.
[I’ve asked psyclaw many times now to tell me how lying is ESSENTIAL to mental well-being, and what are the secret questions that everyone lies about.]
Fine. But you then used that to avoid psyclaw’s assertion – the same one I made – that you had misunderstood fran’s position.
I see that it was a mistake to bring it up.
Not referring to the curry :P.
Kezza #1373
“Now that you think you’ve described me as a mal-functioning person, aw bugger off, how about you answer the questions I posed.”
???????????????????????
…and, actually, I never said that I lied to get out of trouble, but that I understood why children did, by putting myself in their position (which, I made clear, is a different position to that of an adult).
I’m now trying to think of a situation where I lied to get out of trouble, but (in fact) it’s usually the reverse — I get into trouble because I’m too honest!
(The classic case of that is my husband. He got pulled up recently because one of the headlights wasn’t working. “What, again?” he said…)
Zoomster 1409
Agree with you, I am constantly told what I am missing????
mari, being unable to feel anything with your mouth? 🙂
[psyclaw
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2014 at 5:11 pm | PERMALINK
Kezza #1373
“Now that you think you’ve described me as a mal-functioning person, aw bugger off, how about you answer the questions I posed.”
???????????????????????]
Oh, puhleese.
Stop trying to get out of it.
You made assertions that you could make people lie by asking a set of questions.
I keep asking you about these questions, these mysterious secret questions that make people lie, and you refuse to say what they are. Instead, you obfuscate, muck round, will do anything other than ask them. So, once again, what are these questions that you say will make people lie, every time.
Ask me.
As as confirmed liar, I will tell you the truth.
And then tell me, why you consider lying to be essential to mental well-being, when I am living proof that it is not the case.
And don’t bother trying to tell me that I’m the exception that proves the rule.
Just Me #1399
Player One #1401
You both have expressed the subtleties about lying with insight.
Kezza
Earlier this year you yelled at me that I had dried up testicles. Now you say I have none.
You may be right.
kezza
From what I have read today, your family’s physical punishments reminded me of many descriptions I have read (fictional, but probably based on the authors’ own experiences) of the methods used by those we might call “bible bashers” or “fundamental christians”. Perhaps your parents were simply acting according to their generation, not because they were Catholics.
I write from complete ignorance of your parents, of course.
Kezza
The “secret questions” are really no secret.
They are any questions that go to the core of what any individual wants to keep private.
Some aspects of our private life we share with those close to us.
Some aspects we share with no-one.
[zoomster
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2014 at 5:13 pm | PERMALINK
…and, actually, I never said that I lied to get out of trouble, but that I understood why children did, by putting myself in their position (which, I made clear, is a different position to that of an adult).]
Well, actually, you did.
You said you had to end up lying to your class(es) because telling them the truth got you into trouble – with your peers – because the buggers you told the truth to told the other teachers. And none of you could control them once they realised the reports had been done for the year.
And that’s when you started lying to them, to prevent getting into trouble, so that you, and your peers, could prevent shit happening in your classrooms.
mari
the other thing that happens – and this is based on several experiences – is that, several days before a dinner party, the hostess will ring up and ask if there’s anything we don’t eat.
Terribly relieved to be spared an embarrassing evening, I say, “Curry.”
There’s always a tiny pause, and then: “But it’s only a very mild one…”
Seriously.
kezza
no, actually, I didn’t. I said that being honest about when the reports were written caused an awkward situation. I didn’t then say, “so from then on I lied.” I have described how I answer that question now.
…of course, schools have (quite sensibly) solved the whole problem by starting work on the next year’s subjects in the last few weeks of last term, which means teachers can now tell their students with complete honesty when the reports have been written!
Kezza2
I was raised a catholic and my father never hit any of us. My mother smacked me a couple of times when i called her horrible names cos i was being a smartarse. In fact, we were,a little cheeky cos we used to tease our parents, especially my mum whose grasp of English made us laugh.
Sorry to butt in with politics, but I agree that there will be many problems to solve in the future because of out treatment of the “boat people”.
[Evans made a mess of some things as a politician, but his role in the Cambodian peace process qualifies him as one of this country’s finest foreign ministers. The way that process unfolded is a reminder of what will be required if there is ever to be a genuine regional protection framework.
As the diplomat Ken Berry, who was on Evans’ staff at the time, wrote in Cambodia: From Red to Blue – Australia’s Initiative for Peace, the preconditions for a successful operation include that the plan be “conceptually sound and appropriately detailed”, with clear and achievable goals, adequate resources and the support of all the key players.
Abbott’s stop-the-boats strategy fails the first and last of these preconditions.
Yes, the boats have stopped coming. But at some point there will be a reckoning on the price that has been paid, including the damage done to those in offshore detention and the leverage lost when it comes to encouraging others to behave like model international citizens.
Evans implied as much when he launched Carr’s diary, queried Carr’s depiction of Kevin Rudd’s PNG solution as a masterstroke and lamented that Carr was too easy on a Sri Lankan regime that has never made an atrocity-accountability commitment it hasn’t breached,
Said Evans: “We could all understand the need for a deterrent dimension to stop the deaths at sea of boat people, but I for one think that this needed to be accompanied by a huge diplomatic effort in the region to address the problem at source, which we never saw.” And, tragically, are not seeing now.]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-real-price-of-stopping-the-boats-20140417-zqvzl.html#ixzz2zJbwyCnX
Display Nmae
I am not entering into that 🙂
Sorry Display Name 1428
Sorry to bring up the BOF subject again, but i really liked this comment under Mike Secombe’s piece today
[We can speculate why Mr O’Farrell decided not to register a gift valued at $3,000 so soon after winning an election on the promise of ‘cleaning up’ NSW, but pretty clearly it wasn’t because he didn’t actually receive it. Whatever distance he may have thought he’d put between himself and the giver clearly wasn’t enough three years later. And it’s not that the now ex-Premier hadn’t been all biblical about Mr Di Girolamo in denying he knew him either, he’d done it on at least three previous occasions. All very Easter really, not that anyone would confuse Nicky Di G with Jesus Christ, except maybe some thing he could do with turning water in wine, miraculously opening doors, and having many pieces of silver just turn up into various coffers. Rather, he turned out more like that Judas character, not with a kiss, but a kiss and tell, in the form of a note from the new Premier.
No need to send over a horses head, was there?
And then there’s the party hacks,like the Eeyore of Australian political commentary Gerard Henderson, who usually drones on with a few historical notes about Bob Santamaria or other irrelevance, but this time went the full rabid bull terrier, snapped his chain on national TV and accused a highly respected journalist of just having “fun and games” at ICAC. Somehow implying that reporting Barry’s ‘memory lapse’ was tantamount to playing political paintball with the odd live round.
The swamp that’s NSW political politics sees no one, no matter how clean they are going in, come out looking anything but very soiled. It’s a pity Mr O’Farrell got so mired in it, but he really did choose which way to go himself.
Maybe Barry didn’t see the sign in the Hundred Acre Wood: “Eeyore’s Gloomy Place: Rather Boggy and Sad”
Maybe Gerard should have warned him? Too late now.]
Zoomster
[…of course, schools have (quite sensibly) solved the whole problem by starting work on the next year’s subjects in the last few weeks of last term, which means teachers can now tell their students with complete honesty when the reports have been written!]
And equally, I tell my junior students that I’m still working with the relevant HT and YA to finalise reports (which is true) and that I’m noting their current work so that I can send advice and work samples home to parents who may not be able to attend PT nights (also true).
[psyclaw
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2014 at 5:24 pm | PERMALINK
Kezza
The “secret questions” are really no secret.
They are any questions that go to the core of what any individual wants to keep private.
Some aspects of our private life we share with those close to us.
Some aspects we share with no-one.]
Oh, okay, perhaps I’m not au fait with what is public and what is private. So would you have the decency to say what these questions are? Or not?
It’s as if you belong to some special club where you have a secret and to belong to the club, I have to guess what your secret is, or to perform some sort of secret thing.
Come on, give over. What are these questions. I can’t for a minute think of one. So tell me.
In the meantime, ruminate on this.
Elizabeth Farrelly was wont to describe the failings of the members of the church as not failings of the institution itself, but the failings of its members. Therefore, hence and notwithstanding, the church was still the sacred, secretive, scented idealogical form she always thought it to be.
That those who couldn’t live up to it rules and regulations and rites were mere failings of the individuals themselves, not the esteemed institution.
When I was a kid, two of my next-door-neighbours and I decided to form a club. We only wanted ourselves as members. We drew up a rudimentary constitution – of course we wanted to make a rule that would immediately make sure no one else could perform, after all we were a year older than the others.
We pondered this for days, and finally came up with the rule that you had to be able to eat a banana in 11 seconds to be eligible to join the club.
We thought we could do it, so we made our younger brothers and sisters try. And none of them could it. It was all over red rover, until one of them wanted to see us do it.
None of us could. There was no club because none of us could measure up. That’s the value of play, I reckon. It was also the value of making a club where no one could abide by the rules, let alone join.
This made me think about a church, my church, Catholicism, where nobody ever measured up.
By my rules where we had to disband a club before it even started, the institution of Church should never have been instituted.
There endeth the lesson.
Zoomster 1423
Yes I relate to that, has also happened to me. Then a special dinner is made for me while the rest woof into a strong curry and I feel pretty silly
victoria:
There’s no need to apologise for raising the subject of BOF or ICAC, surely.
fran
as I said earlier, I now say that of course I have written the reports, but as they’re on my laptop I can change them at any time. Why, I could log in right now and alter what I’ve written….
And that’s 100% true.
(Fortunately I worked out how to do reports on the computer long before any other teacher I knew, so I’ve been able to respond in this way from quite early in my teaching career!)
Vic –
Could be some sparks flying next time Mike Secombe and henderson are on Insiders together.
Victoria
MSecombe’s piece is well written.
It seems that he’s suggesting that O’F recognised immediately he got the wine, that it (undesirably) linked him to Girolamo, and that if he registered it, it would put the link on the public record.
So he kept “mum” about it hoping it would fade into insignificance. It didn’t.
zoomster@1423
You really need to try a Thai Massaman Curry.
You will eat it and not realise it is a curry and absolutely delicious.
The curry you give to people who don’t like curry.
confessions
I know some bludgers earlier in the thread were bored of the BOF topic. Hence the apology
[zoomster
Posted Saturday, April 19, 2014 at 5:27 pm | PERMALINK
kezza
no, actually, I didn’t. I said that being honest about when the reports were written caused an awkward situation. I didn’t then say, “so from then on I lied.” I have described how I answer that question now.]
See, I can never ever win with you. You said you started out determined to be honest with your pupils.
You then said you got into trouble for telling the truth (with your peers, because of the students).
You then said you got round this trouble by telling the pupils that you had only made draft reports.
I didn’t say you continued to tell lies to your students, I suggested that you used the same excuse for telling lies (and it was a lie to say you had made a draft rather than a final report): to get out of trouble.
That’s all. I never suggested for a moment that you continued to do so.
bemused
you were one of the curryphiles I had in mind!
Kezza2
What you endured was not normal parental discipline but sheer sadism. I feel very sorry for you.
When I was in primary school, the Catholic kids 2 doors down the street had the reverse of your situation.
The nuns at their school were the sadists and absolutely beat the crap out of the kids. Finally, the parents had had enough and the kids were withdrawn from the Catholic School and joined us at the State School where corporal punishment existed, but was restrained within reasonable bounds.
Bemused1438
True?
I always though s Malaysian curry was the strongest, I worked with a Malaysian person once and you could almost see the steam rising out of the currys. I didn’t partake which was a bit hard as I was his boss
[1405
Leroy Lynch
https://twitter.com/Leroy_Lynch/status/457412938039451648
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/top-end-deserts-giles-and-party/story-e6frgczx-1226889455541#
Top End deserts Giles and party
AMOS AIKMAN The Australian April 19, 2014 12:00AM
SUPPORT has crashed for the Northern Territory’s Country Liberal Party, which stands to lose crucial seats across Darwin and its majority at the election.
Chief Minister Adam Giles and his deputy are both on the nose with voters.]
This poll was just of urban electorates, but I doubt support for the CLP in rural seats is generally faring much better. All before the end of their first term.
kezza
you got your timelines mixed up.
The first year I answered my students honestly, and got in trouble.
That wasn’t when I told them I had drafted reports. That was in after years, and it was perfectly true, because (as I just outlined in my post to fran) I worked out how to do them on the computer.
What I didn’t answer – at all – was the question about what other teachers were doing.
If a guest says they “don’t eat onions (or curry)” I work our a menu in which the disliked items don’t appear. When one guest was a disabled lady who could only eat with a spoon, the meal I served was a risotto. I like my guests to enjoy their meal without embarrassment.
bemused
Thai Curry’s are to die for . This link is to the late Colonel Ian Khuntilanont-Philpott’s great site for Thai recipes.
http://www.chetbacon.com/thai-html/thai.html
As a sampler here is his recipe for Gaeng khiao wan kai (green chicken curry).
http://www.chetbacon.com/thai-html/Gaeng_khiao_wan_kai.htm
victoria:
Invariably when someone complains about being sick of reading continued comments about an subject they are bored with, they’ll get hit with an even more boring, pointless subject.
Just Me:
Even from way down here, the NT govt looks to be mired in chaos and dysfunction.
pysclaw
Indeed