BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Labor

This week’s Nielsen result prompts a startling shift to the Greens in the weekly poll aggregate, which in turn drives a solid move to Labor on two-party preferred.

Nielsen has this week thrown a spanner into the BludgerTrack works, producing a dramatic shift on the basis of a result that’s yet to be corroborated by anybody else. The big mover is of course the Greens, who have shot up five points to the giddy heights of 15.4%, a result I wouldn’t attach much credit to until it’s backed by more than one data point. Only a small share of the gain comes at the expense of Labor, who have accordingly made a strong gain on two-party preferred and are in majority government territory on the seat projection. A further point of interest with respect to the Nielsen poll is that the two-party preferred response on respondent-allocated preferences, which is not published by Fairfax, is at 54.5-45.5 considerably stronger for Labor than the headline result from previous election preferences. This may reflect a swelling in Greens support from the ranks of disaffected Labor identifiers, and a consequent increase in the Greens preference flow to Labor in comparison with the 2013 election result – which may in turn suggest the headline two-party result from the poll flattered the Coalition a little.

The other aspect of the latest BludgerTrack result which may raise an eyebrow is the strength of the Labor swing in Queensland, which also blew out excessively in January before moderating considerably thereafter. The Queensland breakdown from this week’s Nielsen played its part, showing Labor ahead 53-47 for a swing of around 10%. However, in this case the Nielsen is not out on a limb, providing the model with one of five Queensland data points from the past four weeks which all show Labor in the lead, with two-party results ranging from 51.1% to 56.5% (keeping in mind that sample sizes are in some cases below 200). The scattered state results provided by Morgan are not included in the model, but its poll release last week reported that Labor held a lead in Queensland of 51-49.

Nielsen also provides new data points for leadership ratings, and in keeping with the general weakness of the poll for the Coalition, their addition to the model puts Bill Shorten’s net approval rating back in front of Tony Abbott’s, and returns the narrowing trajectory to the preferred prime minister trendlines.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,593 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Labor”

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  3. 1549

    If there is a fight for hegemony between a Putin run Russia and the USA then it would be better for the world if the USA wins. The Americans are bad but Putin and co and worse.

  4. The spectacular termination of Barry O’Farrell’s premiership over a “forgotten” gift from a Liberal Party associated lobbyist and fundraiser being investigated by ICAC, Nick Di Girolamo, has led to much astonishment and confusion within the Right of the political class and its media hangers on. For the second time since it was set up by the conservatives, the Commission’s investigations have led to the resignation of a Liberal premier. To add insult to the Right’s injuries, on the first occasion Nick Greiner ended up being essentially cleared and on this occasion — at least so far, because more may come to light — the infraction seems relatively minor in terms of the elite lifestyles politicians enjoy: a $3000 bottle of wine

    See more at: http://left-flank.org/2014/04/19/barrys-fall-anti-politics-authority-corruption/#sthash.qJrmfJ8V.2yrt4l2a.dpuf

  5. Vic – some good stuff in the rest of that article.

    Not mentioned is that ICAC needs to be strengthened even after what has happened and hopefully as hearings proceed the need for this will become apparent.

    The tories are really going to have major grief with all of this.

    Do they strike back at ICAC in “punishment” and “retribution” in reflex at what has happened or do they attempt to fix things to shut out the very lobbyists who supported them all the way to regain power and who are mates.

    If they don’t they are road kill with voters. The same voters who are seeing proposals from spivs to build hotels in the Botanical Gardens and sell off other public lands like Harold Park – all to the same spiv tory mates.

    baird is a not up to it IMO.

  6. victoria:

    Yet despite all that this whole ICAC inquiry is still fascinating. It’s claimed a federal minister, and a NSW Premier. Where will it all end? It’s just absolutely so compelling.

  7. Much as I hate to disagree with Tad Tietze, Greiner was not essentially cleared. It was found that he wasn’t subject to the law, the facts of the matter notwithstanding.

  9. Fran Barlow@1557

    Much as I hate to disagree with Tad Tietze, Greiner was not essentially cleared. It was found that he wasn’t subject to the law, the facts of the matter notwithstanding.

    Correct – again no matter how much the tories are desperate to re-write it all – they must not be allowed to do so.

  10. The tories are really going to have major grief with all of this.

    Do you really think so? Obeid and co are accused of committing major fraud on the public purse. That stuff is rank. Like, seriously rank.

    They need to go down for that if proven guilty. By contrast, the Liberals are just facing political embarrassment on the face of what we’ve seen so far. Nothing that could lead to actual criminal charges.

  12. Some irony lies within the likelihood that the current ICAC inquiry will see corruption findings, if any, against only ALP politicians.

    Tripodi and Kelly, likely.

    Eddie is a bit on the fringe on this one.

  13. And here is Elder’s take on the BOF saga

    Barry O’Farrell misled ICAC and had to resign. It’s still a pity that he’s gone from the Premiership, and it’s taken me days to work out why.

    He made his way up through the Liberal Party with the deft touch of getting along with everyone without being anyone’s patsy. He spent time observing all of the players in the NSW Liberals up close, including their weaknesses and how to get around them. It’s part of the reason why I both liked him and rated him as a real political operative, not just a player but a stayer, attaining a state to which most political-class dickheads can only aspire.

    http://www.andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2014/04/the-bottle-and-damage-done.html

  14. confessions
    Posted Saturday, April 19, 2014 at 10:11 pm | Permalink

    Do you really think so? Obeid and co are accused of committing major fraud on the public purse. That stuff is rank. Like, seriously rank.

    They need to go down for that if proven guilty. By contrast, the Liberals are just facing political embarrassment on the face of what we’ve seen so far. Nothing that could lead to actual criminal charges.

    Dead right I do. They have some of their own facing potentially embarrassing weeks at ICAC with utterly unknow outcomes – with negative outlook.

    Senior tories appear to have questions to answer which will be on TV screens for a long time to come with implication for the NSW government having to face an election within a year.

    They are the government, they have to wear it and address it.

    But yes obeid still reflects on Labor but no longer one way traffic – and hopefully that might move into the DPP’s area very soon.

  16. hehe the butt hurtedness has started with a few here already. lol

    Bob Carr believes Kevin Rudd is ideal for the top job at the United Nations

    Former prime minister’s ‘legendary forcefulness’ would be an advantage in leading the world body, former foreign minister says

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/19/bob-carr-believes-kevin-rudd-ideal-for-top-job-at-united-nations

    Rather than see the importance and significance of this real possibility … Australia and world-wise…. the butthurted ones would rather…well….snivel.

  18. shellbell@1562

    Some irony lies within the likelihood that the current ICAC inquiry will see corruption findings, if any, against only ALP politicians.

    Tripodi and Kelly, likely.

    Eddie is a bit on the fringe on this one.

    Will some tory identities etc also likely see corruption findings ?

  19. 1549

    If there is a fight for hegemony between a Putin run Russia and the USA then it would be better for the world if the USA wins. The Americans are bad but Putin and co and worse.

    Getting the balance right is important. I think there will develop a natural balance.. China-Russia-USA/Europe and others. The US needs a check just as much as they other guys. The USA isn’t the kind motherly truthful administrator of world justice of 1950s propaganda. It is as just as evil and murderous as the rest…we just happen to sit on their side of the ledger as an ally.

    The next game changer….with uncertain outcomes is the eventual demise of the USD as preeminent global reserve currency. Which will force dramatic changes at home.

  22. 1561
    Fran Barlow

    Dr Tad is on the far left Dave. He is one of those calling us Greens neo-liberals on bikes.

    I like that. It makes me think I could be Green too.

  23. ‘Fess

    There should be a flurry of NSW Polling soon anyway.

    confessions
    Posted Saturday, April 19, 2014 at 10:37 pm | PERMALINK

    dave:

    I guess we’ll see ultimately where this all goes in the end.

  24. I haven’t seen any prior mention, but the usual suspects have already started to react.
    William is a bit of a surprise though.

    Probably sick of lying and curries.

  25. Former prime minister’s ‘legendary forcefulness’ would be an advantage in leading the world body, former foreign minister says

    Kevin Rudd to RULE THE WORLD!

    🙂

  26. Th test for the US Dollar may come in the very near future

    In May Putin will visit China to sign a huge Gas deal which will involve a TRILLION DOLLARS worth of Russian gas for China..over the next ten years

    and the payments…in Chinese yuan and Russian roubles to cut the US out of making any profit on the deal
    such deals also effect the US economy at home…if the dollar values slide then the costs of imports becomes higher in the US…notably for resources like oil and gas…all bad for US living standards

  28. I am pretty sad that only one single person paid the slightest attention to my posts of yesterday.

    Not even a hello.

    I could say more on this. But does it matter?

    Do you give a fat rats? The answer is sadly, no.

    You may quote me.

    It is as dismissive and ugly as the politics we discuss.

    Or don’t even bother to respond to.

  32. Hey CW…what were you posting about? I would go and look but it’s kind of hard to go back and look now that there is no “All” button so that you can search through all the posts in a thread.

  33. Rossmore.

    Thank you. For responding.

    If you (or anyone for that matter) could be bothered to look at my posts of Friday, I remarked upon issues of the moment.

    It really pisses me off that one goes to the trouble of responding to issues of the day or week or month or year and in response.

    Zilch.

    I would not like to think that I am tooooo boring.

  34. Hey CW I just went through all the pages for last night and couldn’t find any posts from you. I read here a lot more than I post and I suspect there are quite a few who do likewise…so don’t assume a lack of response implies a lack of interest.

  35. Crikey 1583. No I dont as a habit routinely check out posts from the night before. Spell out what your point was in a couple of sentences. Otherwise stop whingeing.

  40. 1583……crikey whitey

    Hey CW, I missed your posts – did not go a-blogging on Friday – but it’s good to see you tonight 🙂

  42. I’m sorry folks, space craft may fly around it; but you have to do something other that say I’m a loony when I tell you the earth is flat (it actually held up by an elephant).

    It would seem I have the right to be a bigot and an ignorant sod.

    http://www.spiked-online.com/freespeechnow/fsn_article/the-state-should-never-be-the-arbiter-of-what-people-can-think/14936#.U1Kdw6Ia2n5

    He describes how Penny Wong, the Labor Party senator for South Australia and minister for climate change in the Julia Gillard government, would ‘stand up in the Senate and say “The science is settled”. In other words, “I am not even going to engage in a debate with you”. It was ignorant, it was medieval, the approach of these true believers in climate change.’ Wong, whom Brandis tells me is ‘Australia’s high priestess of political correctness’, is far from alone in suffering from what the American journalist Joel Kotkin recently described as ‘The Debate Is Over’ Syndrome. Throughout eco-circles, and among the political and media elites more broadly, the idea that the time for debating climate change is over, and now we just need action, action, action, is widespread. And to Brandis, this speaks to a new and illiberal climate of anti-intellectualism, to the emergence of ‘a habit of mind and mode of discourse which would deny the legitimacy of an alternative point of view, where rather than winning the argument [they

    exclude their antagonists from the argument’.
    ]

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