Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor

The latest monthly Nielsen poll finds Labor regaining the two-party lead, and the Greens at an all-time record high.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the monthly Nielsen poll in tomorrow’s Fairfax papers has Labor leading 52-48, after trailing 51-49 last time. The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down four), 34% for Labor (down one) and, remarkably, 17% for the Greens (up five). The latter is three points higher than the Greens have scored in any Nielsen result going back to the 2010 election (UPDATE: It turns out 15% is their previous record in Nielsen, and 16% is their record in Newspoll). Stay tuned for leadership ratings and state breakdowns.

Further results from the poll indicate strong opposition to the government’s policies with respect to the Racial Discrimination Act, with 88% disagreeing with the contention that it should be lawful to offend, insult or humiliate on the basis of race, as per the provisions of 18C of the act, and 59% opposed to George Brandis’s contention that people have the right to be bigots, with 34% supportive. Opinion on knights and dames is more finely balanced than might have been expected, with 35% supportive and 50% opposed.

UPDATE: The poll has Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 48-43 to 45-44, which equals the Newspoll of February 21-23 as the narrowest lead yet recorded (ReachTEL may or not be an exception, as I don’t track it due to its unusual methodology). Abbott is down two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 43% and down one to 41%.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full tables. By far the most striking results are from Western Australia, where the Greens lead Labor 27% to 20% – remembering this is from a sample of 150 with a margin of error of 8%. The lesson I would take from this is that static from the WA Senate election is making federal poll results less reliable than usual just at the moment.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 13 of 21
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  1. [Joyce reckons he is going to fix the cruelty thing.]

    I thought that was done and dusted? Cruelty problem fixed according to Barnaby months ago.

  3. Joyce was quite glad to have some docco fiddlers to fulminate against.

    It saved him actually having to talk about animals dying horrible and protracted deaths so his mates can earn a buck.

  6. Confessions

    I take your point. I am a recent retiree through a forced redundancy and I’ll admit I am a beneficiary of the largesse, though not anything like to the extent quoted.
    Any changes hockey makes have to be phased in, both to avoid the electoral damage and protect the position of those a few years off retirement
    But much of the blame for this can be sheeted home to Howard and Costello who threw money at seniors like drunken sailors in the pub on Friday.
    How ironic that it is the next generation of Tories who will have to start dismantling the system.

  7. Poroti
    I think I found the sweet spot in Wiki:

    ‘Artificial Liberal Party Uterus
    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    An artificial uterus (or womb) is a theoretical party political device that would allow for extracorporeal programming or extrauterine policy fixation (EUFI)[1] by growing an embryo or fetus outside of the body of a female organism that would normally internally carry the embryo or fetus to electoral term.

    An artificial political uterus, as a replacement organ, would have many applications. It could be used to assist male or female couples in the development of their born to rule mentality.[1] This can potentially be performed as a switch from a natural uterus to an artificial uterus aka a private school, thereby moving the threshold of fetal political syndrome viability to a much earlier stage of pregnancy.

    [1] In this sense, it can be regarded as a neonatal IPA incubator with very extended functions. Also, it can potentially be used for initiation of fetal development.[1] Furthermore, it could be available for performing, for example, fetal anti AGW science procedures at an early stage instead of having to postpone them until term of pregnancy.[1]

  8. “@macdorober: Then again, I don’t believe Abbott is going far enough with the pension changes. Involuntary euthanasia at age 70. Simple. #auspol”

  10. I assume that the whole point of forced participation in the workforce until we are 70 is to ensure that we are on unemployment benefits rather than the age pension at 69?

  12. [597
    confessions

    briefly:

    I love how the owners of the site feel the need to remind viewers they’re looking at earth.

    Cause I’m sure there are some out there who might they’re looking at the moon, or Saturn or something! :D]

    lol

    It is a very absorbing visual…will be very interesting to see if the winds in the western pacific flip from an easterly to a westerly flow. If they do, we can watch the system veer towards El Nino conditions….and feel more than normally nerd-like…:)

  14. The problem with Channel 7,9,10 etc is that they don’t repeat the “No Pension change” is that they will not repeat it,

    A month to go till budget day.

  15. rossmcg:

    Fixing the superannuation/pensions mess left to us by the previous generation isn’t the only thing my generation is having to fix.

    It really REALLY annoys me that those seemingly most likely to oppose measures to de-carbonise our economy are the older mob.

  17. Interesting that they are wanting to include the “family” home in the assets test for the pension and its being framed as “if the house is worth more than ……” .

    People who dont have much in the way of income producing assets and who’s house value goes up simply because its inner city could be forced to sell up and move to outer suburbs if this is handled so simply.

    Overall, i am actually not against tightening up things around the pension. But some of the things suggested so far are pure income redistribution avenues to spivs/shysters and are going to hit lower income people MUCH harder than rich Tories.

  18. Poroti 503

    Still up, but of course in my rocking chair with the rug wrapped around me, have just had my milo 😀

    Thank you for that article what a remarkable woman

    Now will the 8pm gremlins eat this post like they did my other one to you?

  20. [599
    poroti

    Actually it is very infectious…]

    Exposure has been known to lead to inflammation of the conversation vessels and, in severe cases to dollaritis, in which sufferers confuse values with money and collapse in confusion.

  21. [Fixing the superannuation/pensions mess left to us by the previous generation isn’t the only thing my generation is having to fix.]

    What mess?

    As Michael Pascoe says:
    [The reality is that compulsory superannuation came along too late to save the vast majority of baby boomers from relying on the pension in their retirement. The average boomer will only have enough to take as a lump sum, pay off a few debts, buy a new car “to see me out”, party a little and “arrange their affairs” to make sure they receive as much pension as possible. It might not be very wise, but that’s pretty much what the system encourages them to do.]

    You will have had compulsory super for your entire working life, understand the difference?

  23. [“if the house is worth more than ……” .]

    You reverse mortgage it so it isn’t. Then put the money into super and claim the pension.

  24. [It is a very absorbing visual]

    Yes, since I found it I’ve been obsessed with the ‘roaring forties’ territory. No wonder sailors declare that leg the most challenging of the round the world trip.

  25. lizzie@546

    Just in case anyone believes Centre’s loony tunes.

    Australian sharemarket plunges as global tensions rise
    THE Australian sharemarket closed more than 1 per cent lower as nervous investors eye Wall Street falls and fresh Ukraine tensions.

    Naaaah… that just shows the global malign influence of the Greens. 😛

  28. Pistotius trial adjourned again as Oscar becomes ’emotional’ after tying himself in knots.

    Impossible to know what really happened, I think.

  29. [Impossible to know what really happened, I think.]

    He put 4 rounds into a door trying to kill whoever was behind it. Simple really.

  30. ruawake

    [You reverse mortgage it .]

    This French version of a reverse mortgage gave me a mega 😆 Icing on top the “investor” was a lawyer.

    [Lessons from a 122 year-old woman

    At age 90, Mme. Calment signed a contract — a common one in France — to sell her condominium apartment en viager (“in life annuity”) to a middle-aged businessman, who agreed to pay her a monthly stipend for the rest of her life. Unfortunately for him, Calment outlived him.]

    http://www.reversemortgageinfo.com/reverse-mortgage-longevity/

  33. Fundamentally Pistorious’ world just is alien to me.

    I find it impossible to imagine being in a situation where the first recourse is to fire a gun through a closed door.

    If his first concern (or any concern!) was his girlfriend, wouldn’t he have established her whereabouts first?

    So, yeah, I’m not inclined to believe Pistorious’ tale.

  36. [577
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, April 14, 2014 at 7:31 pm | PERMALINK
    Seems AWH was paying 2GB for advertising, advertising what we have no idea – yet.

    I assume the first question to BoF tomorrow will be “why did you approve AWH getting the contract bazza?”]

    Doubt it since the contract is different to what was corruptly sought and reputa

  37. Jackol

    Pistorious has not said how he felt threatened to the point of killing anyone. That to me is more telling than anything in his tale.

    Just a feeling and no facts justifies killing someone

  38. Let us dedicate Easter to the bilby and to Australia’s native animals and

    make the rAbbott a thing of the past.

  40. Stupid podgy fingers

    BOF being called as a mirror to calling Keneally, Iemma and Rees. Evidence of how hard the premiers were lobbied is evidence of the degree of corruption involved.

  42. [You will have had compulsory super for your entire working life]

    Yeah, hence I’m extremely pissed at the likelihood of any moves to change the age at which I can access my money.

  43. Jackol

    Saw a doco some time back about violence in S.A. in places like Johannesburg and the violence there . The rich , mostly white people, in their fortress homes were paranoid about home invasions and were armed to the teeth . From what I saw they had good reason to because the posh suburbs were often targeted and many were killed. There really was a shoot first ask questions later attitude. From what I saw I couldn’t blame them.

  44. Boerwar—Re Tartars
    ____________
    I have just read a bio of Catherine the Great..who took the Crimea for Imperial Russia and it remained so until,Kruschev in a drunker bit of bravado put into the Ukraine..he was a Ukrainian too
    Under Tarter rule the Crimea was a place where the basis of the economy was slavery…slaves taken by Tarter warriors …who scorned work,…and the slaves had to do do the work in farms etc
    The young and handsome slaves…Russians/Romanians/Ukrainians. were sold onto to the harems of Ottaman Turkey for sexual use…and a pretty girl..or boy..could fetch a great price in Constantinople’s slave market,where they relished such morsels

    Catherine took the Crimea ,and made it part of Russia,and that naval base at Sebastopol was a first fruit of the war ..and that remains at the basis of the Russian desire for the Crimea

  45. poroti – I do understand that, and that’s why I prefaced my comments with the fact that he lived in a world that is hard to comprehend from Australia.

    However, I can’t get past the fact that to believe his story he would have had to simply not bother to check where his girlfriend was.

  48. “@KPMaltzahn: Because here at the end of entitlement, people can’t expect both jobs and their health. You listening, Morwell? #australiansforcoal”

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