Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor

The latest monthly Nielsen poll finds Labor regaining the two-party lead, and the Greens at an all-time record high.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the monthly Nielsen poll in tomorrow’s Fairfax papers has Labor leading 52-48, after trailing 51-49 last time. The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (down four), 34% for Labor (down one) and, remarkably, 17% for the Greens (up five). The latter is three points higher than the Greens have scored in any Nielsen result going back to the 2010 election (UPDATE: It turns out 15% is their previous record in Nielsen, and 16% is their record in Newspoll). Stay tuned for leadership ratings and state breakdowns.

Further results from the poll indicate strong opposition to the government’s policies with respect to the Racial Discrimination Act, with 88% disagreeing with the contention that it should be lawful to offend, insult or humiliate on the basis of race, as per the provisions of 18C of the act, and 59% opposed to George Brandis’s contention that people have the right to be bigots, with 34% supportive. Opinion on knights and dames is more finely balanced than might have been expected, with 35% supportive and 50% opposed.

UPDATE: The poll has Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 48-43 to 45-44, which equals the Newspoll of February 21-23 as the narrowest lead yet recorded (ReachTEL may or not be an exception, as I don’t track it due to its unusual methodology). Abbott is down two on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Bill Shorten is up one to 43% and down one to 41%.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full tables. By far the most striking results are from Western Australia, where the Greens lead Labor 27% to 20% – remembering this is from a sample of 150 with a margin of error of 8%. The lesson I would take from this is that static from the WA Senate election is making federal poll results less reliable than usual just at the moment.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 21
1 2 21
  1. 17 for the Greens!

    Never seen this before.

    And I thought it was said “The Prime Minister has had a good week.”

    Maybe because he is far away and largely out of sight?

    Very odd indeed.

  2. That 17 is going to look interesting on the BludgerTrack graphs.

    My 2PP aggregate is up half a point to 51.0 to Labor.

    It’s basically been 51 to Labor for the past four months, with the usual minor ups and downs.

  3. I will be interested in the interpretation of this set of figures?

    Something to do with the Senate vote for Greens in WA? But how, if at all?

  4. I said the government had their best week since September and still believe that to be the case. Not sure if I believe the Greens at 17% but as it is a significant increase it must be the case. Extraordinary.

    [Race hate: voters tell Brandis to back off
    April 13, 2014 – 4:58PM
    Mark Kenny, Chief Political Correspondent

    Voters have sent an unambiguous message to Tony Abbott and his Attorney General George Brandis: leave the race hate laws alone.

    The latest Fairfax-Nielsen poll specifically asked voters if they believe it should it be lawful or unlawful to “offend, insult or humiliate” somebody based on their race.

    The answer was a statistically conclusive 88 per cent – or nine out of 10 – in favour of the status quo – that is, that it should remain unlawful to discriminate.]

  6. If we had a non-biased and objective and consistent media, the commentary this week should be about abbot’s leadership being “terminal”. How will the oz and others spin this with their “the greens are finished” narrative?

  7. From last thread

    bemused@2166 on BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0 | The Poll Bludger


    I am in the highly regrettable position of having almost no super and only the most modest of incomes. As a consequence of various crimes and acts of greed committed against me and my then-family, I lost nearly all my assets, including my share of my house and savings and nearly all my possessions.

    This coincided with a quite protracted period of illness from which I’ve only recently recovered. This illness really affected my ability to bring in much of an income, so now I have to face the prospect of working for as long as I possibly can – 70 will not be long enough – knowing my chances of accumulating any significant savings are, realistically, really very poor.

    So for me, the question of when I might retire is almost ridiculous. I will have to work until I am no longer fit to do so.

    Such things happen in the real world, but not in the world of Mad Lib and her ilk.

    Sorry to hear of all your misfortune and hope good things start to happen for you.

  8. [
    Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 at 8:58 pm | Permalink

    Brace Yourself
    Dr Marc Faber,”Dr Doom” to US investors…who predicted some earlier crashes.. says we are on the verge of a bigger US crash than that of 2008,ehich will trigger an even bigger Recession next year
    This man has predicted 18 of the last 2 recessions.

  9. [The previous thread/2166….bemused]

    Thanks bemused. I have vowed not to give up, but to renew my equanimity, my health and my independence.

  10. [Antony Green ‏@AntonyGreenABC 7m
    WA Senate count for ALP, Bullock 1039 BTL votes, Pratt 1285. Never seen 2nd candidate out poll 1st #auspol]

  11. Well David, if that was the ‘best week’ since September, which is probably was, it still wasn’t much of a week.

    With all that “statesmanship” what with the announcements about finding the Malaysian plane (well, almost finding some bits and pieces and blips and such) shouted by the PM, not to mention all those trade deals which will mean thousands off the price of a Mazda in 10 years and lots of promises of sales of beef and strutting the Asian stage and and whatever, it should have been a stellar week for the Coalition.

    Not that the Labor vote is much to get excited about, other than it seems to be going in the opposite direct to the Coalition.

    But, 17 to the Greens?

  12. briefly@20

    The previous thread/2166….bemused

    Thanks bemused. I have vowed not to give up, but to renew my equanimity, my health and my independence.

    You’ve got me feeling bad about any harsh words I ever traded with you. 😮

  13. [The answer was a statistically conclusive 88 per cent – or nine out of 10 – in favour of the status quo – that is, that it should remain unlawful to discriminate.]

    When Bolta is the pinup boy for your cause, you’re nit going to get a lot of traction.

  14. [8

    so the last Neilsen was a rogue.

    tho the 17% for Greens is very interesting given the WA result.]

    17% does not surprise me at all.

  15. [Antony Green ‏@AntonyGreenABC 7m
    WA Senate count for ALP, Bullock 1039 BTL votes, Pratt 1285. Never seen 2nd candidate out poll 1st #auspol]

    That must finally put to bed any remaining doubt that Bullock killed Labors second seat.

  16. The answer was a statistically conclusive 88 per cent – or nine out of 10 – in favour of the status quo – that is, that it should remain unlawful to discriminate.

    Will this Abbott Govt actually listen to the people?

    I don’t think so!! The vested interests will dictate.

  17. briefly@29


    Don’t worry, I don’t carry that sort of baggage

    Robust debate has never bothered me, but others seem to take it all too personal. Glad you lean the same way as me.

  18. I think the Greens have done very well off positive coverage of their WA campaign. Good on them, but I can’t see them getting all that in a real election. I suspect they are also benefiting from the parked vote effect, where people who are unhappy with the current govt but not ready to say they’ll commit to the other side for whatever reason, say “I’m voting Green”.

  19. I think Labor is in decline whilst it flounders around searching for its new direction while it panders to traditional blue collar workers who fled to Pauline Hanson and lately Clive Palmer

  20. The Government had it’s best week since being elected but they went down in the polls.
    Interesting…. I’ve noticed when they have a bad week they often go up in Newspoll.

  21. The good week/bad week stuff is mostly comprised of issues that shift less than 0.5% of the vote. Indeed a lot of it is not even noticed outside of those with an interest in politics. It gets drowned out by random bouncing.

    I reckon some of this jump to the Greens could be real because Labor had an absolute shocker of a week in terms of its perception on the Left. But that doesn’t move votes in 2PP terms.

  22. So the government had it’s best week since taking office……. according to WHO?

    According to it’s supporters, the media, vested interests and those who staged the publicity stunt they called the PM’s Asian trade trip.

    No wonder they are down in the polls.

  23. This applies at 65, 60 and even 55years as well.

    Luverly. So they can go on the DSP rather than the pension then.

    Of course when they get booted off that (Libs hate bludgers after all) they can divest themselves of any assets accumulated (savings, house, car. belongings……) while they were working in order to support themselves at poverty level until they qualify for a pension at 70. Good time to be a cashed up spiv who can buy up distressed assets for a song wot??

    And why not raise the GST as well so they can get a greater proportion of what these people have to spend to survive into the tax take where it is available for corporate welfare??

    I think that people are going to start to twig that the Fibs are REALLY into wealth redistribution.

    Hockey really has not thought this through, and is setting himself up to be looking even more clownish than normal. But in a Chucky kind of way….

Comments Page 1 of 21
1 2 21

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *