This week’s 51-49 Newspoll result has caused a slight moderation in this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which blew out to 52.2-47.8 last week on the back of strong result for Labor from ReachTEL. The 0.5% shift has had a bigger-than-usual effect on the seat projection, with Labor slipping four seats to barely make it to majority government status. This amounts to one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia. There are two new data points for leaders’ ratings, from Newspoll and Essential, and they’ve caused the trendlines to continue moving in the directions they were already headed – inexorably downwards for both leaders on net approval, with a gently narrowing trend on preferred prime minister.
[Bob Such just saying that the Libs put out a lot of material accusing him of supporting Labor “which will make it much harder for me to support the Libs now”.]
This was mentioned during the coverage last night. Dirty tactics come back to bite the coalition.
Tricot
I agree. It’s all very well quoting Labor policies in defence, but the general popn don’t get clear messages from Labor, except “jobs”. And it seems that the Libs have won Tassie with “jobs”.
Oh dear, Shorten at a Croatian Cultural Centre.
The problem with such places is that, those I am aware of, are dedicated to Dr Ante Pavlich the notorious leader of the Ustache who led the Nazi puppet state of Croatia in WWII and was a war criminal. The Ustache were so bad that they horrified the Germans in Croatia.
[ That is, a Labor candidate, in the country in WA, is almost a museum item because Labor seems incapable of finding a message for these voters.]
In many rural electorates it simply doesn’t matter who Labor preselects. The party will never come close to winning.
bemused
I read your remarks but cannot agree.
I’m at the stage of thinking about the Greens that you say you were a few years ago.
I don’t support or vote for them.
Just feel we have to live with them.
@702sydney: A new Detailed Severe Thunderstorm warning for large hailstones & damaging winds including Blue Mts & Central Coast http://t.co/EdS47hch7A
feeney@2205
You are free to be wrong comrade. 😛
They are not our friends.
Seems to me that those who have predicted an improved result for the Coalition in the WA Senate election will be experiencing involuntary sphincter exercises right now.
Once the punters get the feeling it’s OK to vote more negatively against the Coalition so soon after they last voted so positively for them, it’ll be a bandwagon.
And the beauty of it all is that Abbot HAS to turn up. He can’t squib this one.
It’s virtually a national election, with the victors claiming control of the Senate, or damn close to it, and thus an ability to either promote or frustrate Coalition government’s legislative agenda.
The only difference this time around is that, six months down the track, the punters have seen just what Abbott is capable – and not capable – of.
This isn’t rehearsal.The voters aren’t “on a promise” anymore. There’s no speculation about how Abbott will morph into a statesman greater than yada-yada.
He’s turned out to be a dud, instead.
OK, so he’s stopped (or slowed down) the boats, but so what? He’s peaked too soon on that one. His own policy of secrecy has made the boats disappear as a determining factor in the politics of Australia, except pejoratively: when unfortunate people get murdered by their own camp guards it is not a good look.
What else? Thousands of jobs lost is not something to brag about. Neither are all the lies and obfuscations that have been told and acted out since September.
Unemployment is growing in WA with a downturn in the mining industry. The state government is starting to pong with the latest Buswell revelations and Barnett’s record of broken promises.
Where is the ove to come from for the Coalition?
Promises don’t cut it anymore. We’ve seen the value of an Abbott promise: weasel words, parsing his own utterances, legalistic interpretations and outright lies, lots of them.
The WA special election is also a giant by-election: the perfect chance to “send a message” to Canberra in the only way ordinary voters can.
This one is winnable for Labor. At stake is control over the way Australia is governed and who does the governing.
bemused
I agree the Greens may not be our friends.
But I’ll take their preferences, comrade.
feeney@2209
They have nowhere else to go.
Their voters would desert them if they sent preferences to the libs.
[2206
guytaur
Posted Sunday, March 16, 2014 at 1:37 pm | PERMALINK
@702sydney: A new Detailed Severe Thunderstorm warning for large hailstones & damaging winds including Blue Mts & Central Coast http://t.co/EdS47hch7A%5D
My son’s soccer trials were abandoned something I verified by wandering out into an open field in which stood officials huddled under a pop up mini marquee you can get at Bunnings with lightening in the air all around
Any political party is happy to take votes from another party. This is not evil or loony.
Bushfire:
I’m wondering whether we’ll see more of JBishop and Cormann than Abbott for the next month.
lizzie@2212
The action itself is not loony, but some loons are doing it. 😛
@DJobling: .@abcnews RT “@AndrewBrown0607: Speakers just about to start. Now a large crowd #utsjournalism #MarchinMarch #Sydney http://t.co/lep9xEW1hM
Abbott says only big parade in Sydney is St Patricks Day Parade.
Fool
Sydney seems to be pounded by storms over last week or so.
Peter Foster @PeterFosterALP · 7m
Tony Abbott “Timber products are environmentally sound products and we should be producing more of them” Errr #auspol
bemused
Seems to me the organisers of political parties put lots of confidence in their How-to-Vote cards and think they mean something. I’ve seen some comments on how many voters actually follow them but don’t have the facts. For me, I never follow them.
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/pm-to-help-in-renewal-of-tas-timber-20140316-34v0a.html
Here are Abbott’s words.
So is he going to plant trees to replace the ones he cut down in Tasmania?
Feeney
It is not true that Labor relies on Green preferences to win seats.
It is the greatest fallacy and misconception in psephology!
Sure, Labor receives the majority of preferences from the voters who vote 1 Greens but that is purely the choice of the voter, it has NOTHING to do with the Greens.
Bob Brown would ALWAYS encourage voters not to follow how to vote cards and to form their own opinions regarding preferences because we are a democracy.
I know that for an absolute fact because I heard Brown say so many, many times.
Are the Greens that desperate for relevance that they want Labor to owe them something because people are exercising their democratic right to allocate preferences as they wish?
Greens Get Real!
zoidlord
Abbott beliefs: we have too many parks locked up. A tree in Tassie is just the same monetary value as a tree in Darwin. A seedling eucalypt equals a 500 year old tree. Habitat? What’s that?
This fool makes my head explode.
lizzie@2218
Many people do follow them as it is just easier to do so rather than work it out for yourself. Voters for minor parties are probably less likely to follow them as their preferences actually count.
The other thing is that they provide party workers their final chance to influence a voter with something as simple as being courteous and helpful with a friendly smile and greeting. Impressions do count, particularly if a voter is undecided.
Centre
I disagree.
How anyone could believe the Liberals/Abbott when they claim to care about jobs and workers is beyond me.
Abbott promised 2 million jobs, so far only job created was for a 3 star General. And in 6 months has overseen the loss of around 60,000 jobs
Abbott is the man earning $500,000 blaming the man earning $50,000 a year for outlandish working conditions and pay.
feeney@2224
You are wRONg. 😀
Anyway, gotta go get my groceries now. Will convince you later. 😉
lizzie
Posted Sunday, March 16, 2014 at 1:56 pm | Permalink
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/pm-to-help-in-renewal-of-tas-timber-20140316-34v0a.html
Here are Abbott’s words.
===================================================
Abbott displays an ignorance of old growth forests.
I really wonder who did his exams at Uni, or attended the classes for him, because no-one could be as ignorant as he is with any sort of higher education.
[Sure, Labor receives the majority of preferences from the voters who vote 1 Greens but that is purely the choice of the voter, it has NOTHING to do with the Greens.]
I’m sure there’s a word for that crazy logic, but I don’t know it.
Adelaide march – plenty of media there. It briefly took over all of nth terrace.
AA
I wonder if he reads anything at all. He certainly doesn’t seem to have much general knowledge. But I spose we could say that about many who have spent their lives seeking political promotion (and higher salary).
Feeney
How can you disagree with a undisputed fact.
The people who vote Greens 1 are entitled to allocate their preferences as they wish and that includes marking Liberal ahead of Labor.
You are dreaming if you think Labor needs the Greens.
Let’s make a deal:
The Greens can put Labor last on their how to vote cards and Senate preferences and Labor can put the Greens last on their how to vote cards and Senate preferences.
Now, who needs who and who should thank who? 😎
Further to who should thank who @ 2231
We all saw what the Greens can do with a bit of power riding on the back of Labor. Refer to the CPRS and the Malaysian solution.
Labor knows it, that’s why Champions comments this morning of Liberal Agenda are a MUST hear!
Centre @ 2231
Your deal is illusory.
Perhaps I’m not as pissed off with the Greens as you and bemused appear to be.
Hang in there, comrade.
Centre @ 2231
Your deal is illusory.
Perhaps I’m not as pissed off with the Greens as you and bemused appear to be.
Hang in there, comrade.
It’s official SkyNews reporting that Abbott said nothing ever happened under the Gillard Govt!
Albo might disagree with that.
Sky showed MarchinMarch crowds.
feeney
No I’m not pissed off with the Greens. They are a nuisance and a hindrance to the economy and good progressive policies which Labor propose and to their re election prospects – that is all!
Tony Abbott has made good on his promise to be an “Infrastructure Prime Minister”, by re-announcing some infrastructure the former Federal government had announced a year ago.
[The project was signed off between the State Government and the former Labor federal government last year, with each committing more than $400 million in funding.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-16/nsw-to-start-work-on-northconnex-tunnel/5324118
What will Abbott’s next triumph be? Announcing a National Broadband Network? Or perhaps a new Adelaide Oval? Whatever it is, I’m sure it will be great, and completely original.
Centre
Your assertion dismisses the voters putting Green as 1 and Labor as 2 as irrelevant.
Keep it up and they will prove to you how irrelevant they are by putting Liberal as 2
It is amazing reading all the tweets coming in re “MarchinMarch” rallies all over the country
BH
Yes, I heard him say that on 24. wtte “Some minority govts are OK but the last federal one was a failure.”
He has the liar’s ability to deny history with a straight face.”
No, bemused, I’m not an ALP member.
How do you respond to post 2238?
Let’s have a look at it.
[Your assertion dismisses the voters putting Green as 1 and Labor as 2 as irrelevant.]
Where have I made such an assertion that dismisses Green votes that allocate a no.2 to Labor?
For starters, that doesn’t make any sense, secondly, how could you possibly conclude any such from my posts?
A voter has every right to vote 1 Greens and vote 2 Labor, it’s got NOTHING to do with the Greens.
Bob Brown understands, refer back to my post where I have mentioned him, how the preferential system works…you don’t!
I’m convinced of it.
Centre
You dismiss the Green voters by ignoring why they are putting 1 for the Greens.
[
bemused
Posted Sunday, March 16, 2014 at 12:30 pm | Permalink
Rex Douglas@2153
The ALPs problem at the moment is it’s being stretched to the left and right – it’s about to tear in half.
So what’s your solution Rex?
Seems to me you don’t do solutions, just whinge all the time.
]
The progressive vote exists, but it is not enough to form government.
Labor either has to accept debate is healthy and present it as such or accept the greens.
My own view is, if you want to vote for right wing nutters you vote Liberal. Labor isn’t going to pick up many votes there.
Abbott seems a bit TOO keen in securing the clean sweep – GST agenda perhaps ?
There you go Guytaur, Bob Brown @ 2221.
Centre
As for why Labor lost support it was mainly its time.
However a close number two was Giddings saying to voters she was wrong to rule with the Greens after having done so. Its too late after the fact.
Centre
Your 2221 is exactly my point. I am not talking how to vote cards.
http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-16/protesters-march-in-march-across-australia-against-govt-policies/5324048 finally abc reporting. Think may have been shamed into it???
Guytaur
I acknowledge that some puny 8% of the vote want the Greens at no.1. I’m sure that many others do likewise.
Big whoop! Pauline Hanson got as much in 1998 😆