BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

After a period of erratic poll results from various outfits, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate appears to be recovering its equilibrium.

This week’s 51-49 Newspoll result has caused a slight moderation in this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which blew out to 52.2-47.8 last week on the back of strong result for Labor from ReachTEL. The 0.5% shift has had a bigger-than-usual effect on the seat projection, with Labor slipping four seats to barely make it to majority government status. This amounts to one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia. There are two new data points for leaders’ ratings, from Newspoll and Essential, and they’ve caused the trendlines to continue moving in the directions they were already headed – inexorably downwards for both leaders on net approval, with a gently narrowing trend on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,558 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor”

Comments Page 46 of 52
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  1. The issue regarding greeimple psephology for labor

    it goes like this

    Part 1 in the Senate
    1. All votes for greens whatever their preferences have the effect of becoming ANTI LNP votes therefore they are an asset to Labor. If the greens vote disappeared ie the greens not there then we KNOW (from preferences)that at least 20% of their vote would go to a conservative party. Therefore by securing a senate position the Greens are DIRECTLY taking 2-3% from the LNP (20% of 10-15%). This is the reverse of the impact that the DLP had for Labor on the 50s-60s.
    2. If the greens disappeared it is likely that a goodly share of their voters would vote informal or not turn up. It is hard to say how many but 10% might be a reasonable guess. Once again this is a direct loss of about 1% to the anti LNP cause.
    3. If the greens are NOT present it is unclear just for whom their current 10-15% voters would support. If Tasmania is any indicator, collapse of the Green vote goes DIRECTLY to the LNP. My own “guesstimate” is that a fair share (say 10%) would actually shift directly firstly to a conservative minor party eg PUP and then after one election straight to the LNP

    In summary I would expect that the departure of the greens would lead to a decline of 5% in the anti LNP vote (2% by those who preference LNP returning “home”, 1% from informal lack of interest voters especially amongst youth, and a further 2% of greens who just want to not vote for a major but might easily switch to LNP or conservative minors if the greens are not there.

    Now if ALP types are so happy to lose 5% of the vote by being bloody minded then so be it. They will not stay viable.

    Now in the HoR this impact is not so strong (no 1 does NOT apply) and No 3 perhaps to a lesser extent. Still I imagine a 1-2% loss in votes ultimately delivered to Labor.

  2. Shorten:

    No formal alliance with the Greens ever again!

    They read it here first 😎

    It took them a whole term (2010 to 2013) to find out what I’d been saying all along 😀

  3. Peter giving Abbott some helpful hints on hew to deal with NewTown High.

    [
    PetasTalkbackMonkey
    I think Abbott (since lying to them hasn’t worked) should at least threaten, bully or defund Newtown High just as he does with any other opposition. If that doesn’t work in destroying these valuable future assets for our country perhaps he should take to them with an axe like trees, bury them in dirt like coral, lock them up in detention camps like refugees, murder them like sharks, or say that they can’t marry each other like gays. If none of that changes their minds then he could pretend they don’t exist like climate change, make them a subject of a royal commission like the unions, subject them to the Productivity Commission as he does with everything else he wants to cut, or maybe make them work for the dole as he does with the unemployed. If that doesn’t work maybe he could put them in a orange plastic boat and send them to Indonesia along with all the other stuff that he doesn’t want here. If that doesn’t work I think he should lock them up in their school and if they riot because they want to get out and have a normal life he can just kill some of them. Tony has worked up a lot of options for people that don’t agree with him.
    ]

  4. Rex Douglas@2241

    bemused
    Posted Sunday, March 16, 2014 at 12:36 pm | PERMALINK
    Rex Douglas@2158
    I’m not sure there is a solution, bemused.
    Are you an ALP member?


    No, bemused, I’m not an ALP member.

    Maybe you should become one and contribute your wisdom in party forums. 😐

  6. Centre

    How about you look at what happens in power sharing arrangements around the world.

    Is it Greens or is it disunity is death.

    I think its disunity is death.
    The reasons for alliance were good thats why it happened. The voters have punished disunity.

    Watch Borgen and you will see its true the parties got closer to losing power the more they disagreed on vital issues. A fictional programme based on the reality of how politics work.

  7. My grandkids and friends are marching in
    Newcastle. 3, 000 is a big number there.

    Looks as tho the march has had a successful weekend

  11. Also in Tasmania Giddings turned her back on protecting the environment in favour of the myth of getting a pulp mill up.

    So why should voters believe Labor is sincere about the Forest Peace Deal when history shows they sided with Forestry Tasmania more often than not.

    If you are going to have wreckers better to have honest wreckers.

  13. daretotread@2251

    The issue regarding greeimple psephology for labor

    it goes like this

    Part 1 in the Senate
    1. All votes for greens whatever their preferences have the effect of becoming ANTI LNP votes therefore they are an asset to Labor. If the greens vote disappeared ie the greens not there then we KNOW (from preferences)that at least 20% of their vote would go to a conservative party. Therefore by securing a senate position the Greens are DIRECTLY taking 2-3% from the LNP (20% of 10-15%). This is the reverse of the impact that the DLP had for Labor on the 50s-60s.
    2. If the greens disappeared it is likely that a goodly share of their voters would vote informal or not turn up. It is hard to say how many but 10% might be a reasonable guess. Once again this is a direct loss of about 1% to the anti LNP cause.
    3. If the greens are NOT present it is unclear just for whom their current 10-15% voters would support. If Tasmania is any indicator, collapse of the Green vote goes DIRECTLY to the LNP. My own “guesstimate” is that a fair share (say 10%) would actually shift directly firstly to a conservative minor party eg PUP and then after one election straight to the LNP

    In summary I would expect that the departure of the greens would lead to a decline of 5% in the anti LNP vote (2% by those who preference LNP returning “home”, 1% from informal lack of interest voters especially amongst youth, and a further 2% of greens who just want to not vote for a major but might easily switch to LNP or conservative minors if the greens are not there.

    Now if ALP types are so happy to lose 5% of the vote by being bloody minded then so be it. They will not stay viable.

    Now in the HoR this impact is not so strong (no 1 does NOT apply) and No 3 perhaps to a lesser extent. Still I imagine a 1-2% loss in votes ultimately delivered to Labor.

    Sorry, but that is just rubbish, particularly the statement: “If Tasmania is any indicator, collapse of the Green vote goes DIRECTLY to the LNP.”

    Much of it would be returning former Labor voters who had learnt their lesson that voting for loons does not help. OTOH, some pissed off Labor voters would have voted Lib to ensure they got rid off loon influence from the State Govt.

    Labor should just ignore the Greens.

  14. DTT

    Nick Mickim is right. The model does not matter. You get rewarded or punish on agreeing on supply.

    Seems the voters are not stupid and know what it means

  15. Bemused

    Exactly. Voters can choose whoever they like at no.2.

    The Greens want Labor to give thanks like they do in the church on Sunday mornings just because those voters happened to mark the Greens at 1.

    daretotread

    It’s perfectly wise to say never regarding formal alliances. A formal alliance is not the same as an agreement regarding certain issues. The Libs have agreed with the Greens on a certain issue but hardly consider themselves in alliance.

  18. Another point

    The LNP have reached their peak. Progressives have reached the bottom.

    Now the pendulum swings. As BB has pointed out the WA Senate vote is going to be interesting indeed.

  19. lizzie

    Posted Sunday, March 16, 2014 at 2:23 pm | Permalink

    AA

    I wonder if he reads anything at all.
    =================================================

    He has history for not reading reports etc.

    Remember the lies he was espousing about Olympic Dam.

  20. Rex D @ 2267

    Yes.

    That is why voting informally only cuts your nose to spite your face, as the saying goes I think 😆

  22. I wonder if bob Menzies showed his gratitude to the communist party when it’s preferences saved his government in 1961!

  23. Bill Shorten should be over in the west every week campaigning on the ground – show them respect and he might receive some back.

  24. “@T4SydneyTrains: Customers to the city on Trackwork buses allow extra travel time due to a protest march moving via #GeorgeSt to #Broadway and Victoria Park.”

    Big march disrupting traffic

  25. Daretotread_______________

    It seems to me that some of the Labor Right here on PB and elsewhere hate the Greens more than the Libs, and would rather be defeated and see the Greens damaged than win with their support
    Crazy really,but is says something about the ALP Right.who can’t cope with another party to their left

    …even sillier when youy realise that the Greens are here to stay…as they are in most European countries too

  27. [PetasTalkbackMonkey
    I think Abbott (since lying to them hasn’t worked) should at least threaten, bully or defund Newtown High just as he does with any other opposition. etc. etc.]

    His big mistake, from my viewing of the video, was to talk down to them.

    He even asked, “Haven’t you got a footy question?” (!).

    This guy treats bright kids like morons, and morons like geniuses.

    From what I saw they weren’t swallowing a crumb of what he dished up to them.

    They heckled, they cheered (their won questions) and they knew they had him on the spot.

    He came over and spoke to them voluntarily because he thought they’d be easy meat, doing the usual Canberra rounds: War Memorial (nope), High Court (nah-uh)… Instead they saw the CSIRO. They asked why a man is in charge of women’s affairs (and received a plonkingly dismissive and patronizing response).

    I doubt he’ll EVER do that again. Peta won’t let him. Too much chance for unscripted remarks from either side of the conversation (if you can call his uhms and aahs “conversation”, or even one side of it).

    All we need now is for Abbott to instruct Brandis (Minister for the Arts) to see if there isn’t some way Newtown School’s grants or funding can’t be pared back a little.

    God help him if he does. Come to think of it, God help him if they don’t get a rise in funding. Anything short of that will be portrayed as nobbling.

    Abbott has been for too long a captive of his tribal peers. I sometimes suspect he really believes that guff about “the Caaaaabon Tax”. I wonder if he doesn’t actually think that his government has been an honest and successful one… simply because he stopped the boats (sort-of)… and let’s not forget there was a question from the kids about that too.

    He had no idea how to relate to them, and seems not to understand that some of them might be in a position to vote against him in 2016, after they have turned 18.

    It’s all going pear-shaped, isn’t it?

    The hit-hard/hit-fast thing with cancelling appointments, reneging on promises, reversing campaign pledges, and – always – breaking his promise about “no excuses” by blaming Labor at every turn of the political wheel has backfired.

    Not only is he on the skids as regards polls, but he has to fight, not a normal by-election, but a formal half-Senate election for the state of Western Australia from a position of distrust by the electorate.

    Geez, I bet he didn’t see that coming.

    He’s asking the punters to trust him again, after he has shown that he believes promises are no more than just piss and wind to get a pollie into office, and then be abandoned.

    What a delicious irony.

  29. BB

    [ Instead they saw the CSIRO]
    Not just the fact they went to CSIRO the kid specifically mentioned biogas and renewable energy. A real message there.

  30. Great to see the crowds at the rallies and particularly to see all of the home made signs.

    One aimed at Abbott said “You are just awful” think most of us on here could agree with that.

  31. Deblonay

    For the record, I do not hate the Greens, I’ve clearly expressed my opinions on the Greens.

    Personally I find the Greens and the Liberals equally unacceptable, one more than the other depending on the issue in question.

    But who would I preference between the Greens and the Liberals to form government?

    The Libs would get the nod!

  40. A massive storm raged through here in a flash, uprooted 2 x 60metre grey gums in the house paddock, left mess every where but only 1ml of rain.

    All is calm now, the sun is shining and now to clean up the mess.

    Darn carbon tax was to blame!

  41. Centre@2281

    Deblonay

    For the record, I do not hate the Greens, I’ve clearly expressed my opinions on the Greens.

    Personally I find the Greens and the Liberals equally unacceptable, one more than the other depending on the issue in question.

    But who would I preference between the Greens and the Liberals to form government?

    The Libs would get the nod!

    I think that last sentence is where I part company with Centre.

    Libs always last unless One Nation or other low life racist, fascist gang is running a candidate.

  43. I don’t hate the Greens (why, some of my best friends…) — I just don’t see why one party gets to paint itself as pure and good and right and the rest of us just have to accept that.

    Just as a self confident person welcomes criticism because they know that they can learn from it (where it’s honest), so a fully mature and professional party (and its supporters) should recognise that it hasn’t got everything right and welcome opposing views.

    The Greens don’t — which is not just my opinion, but that of a couple disaffected Greens members I know.

  46. zoomster

    Its Labor not the Greens attacking sensible moves by Labor governments to be a government and not an opposition.

    So really you need a new argument.

  50. deblonay@2295

    Centre 2281…re Greens
    ___________
    your prefs for Libs over Greens…has just proved my point

    And you are proof of one of the ways the Greens weaken Labor by seducing away some of its members and supporters with all their faux purity and posturing.

    I am sure you will be welcome back into the ALP fold once you become disillusioned with the Greens.

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