This week’s 51-49 Newspoll result has caused a slight moderation in this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which blew out to 52.2-47.8 last week on the back of strong result for Labor from ReachTEL. The 0.5% shift has had a bigger-than-usual effect on the seat projection, with Labor slipping four seats to barely make it to majority government status. This amounts to one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia. There are two new data points for leaders’ ratings, from Newspoll and Essential, and they’ve caused the trendlines to continue moving in the directions they were already headed – inexorably downwards for both leaders on net approval, with a gently narrowing trend on preferred prime minister.
MTBW@2147
Among other things he was blasting the libs for hiding their intentions, dodging debates, walking away from press conferences etc.
[Guess he’d overlooked the car industry, current Abbott government performance, Weatherill Vs a raw newbie, and the newbie’s “I’ll work with Tones” proclamation, just to name a few factors as obvious as canines testicles that might have assisted Labor.]
And let us not forget…
* “Vote Labor”
* The “surprise” result last time.
As I predicted, the Insiders are not giving up. They’re hanging out for postals and absentees.
But the horse has already bolted: landslide, humiliation, death-of-a-once-great-party it was not.
The ALPs problem at the moment is it’s being stretched to the left and right – it’s about to tear in half.
BB
Last night one of your favorites, Uhlmann, was almost begging for the postals and absentee votes to get the Libs over the line.
Pathetic really.
Rex Douglas@2153
So what’s your solution Rex?
Seems to me you don’t do solutions, just whinge all the time.
Thanks guytaur and bemused for the feedback!
Rex
Yes. I think that is why the eye was taken off the ball on party reform and accountability as getting power for right or left battle became the focus.
If that had not happened I think the Labor Party could well be having primaries for preselections now and checks and balances would have been in place to catch Obeid sooner before he did so much damage.
The Labor party would be stronger and the Greens weaker.
There would be no Abbott PM.
I’m not sure there is a solution, bemused.
rex
The easy solution to your problem is simple let’s go with the Left!
My solution is that we need more viable parties so that each party doesn’t wrestle with the internal contradictions of trying to be a “broad church” all the time – and that clearly applies to the LNP as much as it does to the ALP.
But more parties necessarily means looser coalition (minority) governments, and we keep being told how awful and unworkable those are.
Today’s Mumble.
[ On current counting the ALP is ahead in 23 seats, Liberals in 22 and two Independents. If Labor ends up with 24 or more out of 47 then they form government.
But with prepoll and postal votes still to be counted, and these in total historically favouring the conservative parties, there’s a chance the Liberals will end up with 23. Perhaps, on the outside, a majority.
And if neither side gets to 24, that means it’s 23 to 22 one way or the other. Then one Independent would be enough for government for the party with 23. Or they could both support the party on 22. ]
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/mornings_after/
FWIW he was one of those who predicted a landslide to the Liberals in SA.
Jackol:
I agree about the need for more diverse parties. I always thought it was a shame the Democrats blew up.
Strictly speaking Psyclaw, gerrymandering need not entail malapportionment. Gerrymandering is about drawing boundaries so as to create artificial minorities. Malapportionment simply gives seats different values, so that smaller groups of people have the same voting weight as larger groups of people. Eg all states having 10 senators, despite having different numbers of electors.
Latest hypothesis for Malaysia Airline is that the pilot was a pissed off supported of Ibrahim who cracked when the court overturned his appeal against sodomy charges.
Malaysia getting caned by the Chinese
[Harsher was a commentary from China’s state news agency Xinhua on the “painfully belated” release of information: “Given today’s technology, the delay smacks of either dereliction of duty or reluctance to share information in a full and timely manner.”]
Rex Douglas@2158
Are you an ALP member?
MTBW@2159
In NSW, I would probably do that, but the situation is more complex in Victoria.
I have been getting phone calls and letters from candidates for State Conference and FEA Executive. I am inclined to go with those who will break the factional strangle hold that has brought us some outrageous pre-selection outcomes.
First MSM report I have seen.
@abcnews: Thousands drawn to Australia-wide protests against government policies in #MarchInMarch. See the photos: http://t.co/0oGukyzbfu
Why is no one ridiculing the Coalition of Nationals and Liberals, which makes Truzzz the Deputy Leader of the govt?
@political_alert: Shadow Transport Minister @AlboMP will hold a press conference on PM Tony Abbott’s ‘re-announcement’ of Labor’s F3-M2 link, 1.35pm #auspol
lizzie
Murdoch likes that one.
bemused
[I am inclined to go with those who will break the factional strangle hold that has brought us some outrageous pre-selection outcomes.]
I agree they should adopt the Faulkner Bracks Carr Review suggestions.
That was just lost into thin air.
guytaur
But do Centre and Bemused? 😀
lizzie
There is lots to ridicule the Liberals for Truss being one of them but we have work to do in the ALP as well.
They are not mutually exclusive!
bemused and MTBW
It is up to members like you to get that review seriously on the agenda. There is Rainbow Labor, there is Labor for refugees.
There needs to be at least as strong on reforms. Labor for members not factions could be a name if the reality is everything has factions. However you get the point I am trying to make I think.
guytaur
Point taken!
MTBW @ 2126
Completely agree with your point.
Labor and the Greens rely on each others’ preferences to retain seats – HOR and Senate and State – and all this bagging of the Greens I just cannot understand.
Scrutineering demonstrates that the majority preferences Labor receives is from the Greens and a couple of ratbag Independents.
All valid questions relating to the Buswell matter.
[The affair raises a number of troubling questions. Foremost, why did Buswell, who was also the state’s transport minister, choose to get into his ministerial car after the wedding and try to drive home when his house in Subiaco was less than 2km away?
How could such a well-known political figure smash his car and yet keep this hidden from police (who were called to his house after being alerted but left because the lights were out), the local media and even, as we are told, the Premier himself?
And did Buswell and Turnseck – the only other person who knew about damage to the car – simply hope nobody would ever find out about the crash, and that perhaps he would be able to return to work and continue as treasurer and transport minister?
(Turnseck is a skilled political operator who worked in Canberra for Julie Bishop between 2005 and 2007, when Bishop was education minister in the Howard government.)
Also, why didn’t Barnett ask any questions about what had led to his treasurer’s breakdown when a tearful Turnseck came to see him on the morning of Monday, February 24?]
And the presence of the West editor at now two events where Buswell’s drinking caused a scandal, and the lack of questioning about either event is more than just coincidental.
[Another question that might be asked is: should The West Australian have asked more questions about the events that led up to Buswell’s breakdown, given McCarthy’s presence at the wedding?
McCarthy tells The Weekend Australian he was at the wedding with Buswell but he “didn’t see anything that would lead me to suspect what would happen”.
“I wasn’t even aware Troy had his car there,” he says.
Yet McCarthy was also close to the action the last time Buswell’s career threatened to run off the rails.
At a boozy Christmas party at Nigel Satterley’s Peppermint Grove mansion in December 2011, Buswell was alleged to have simulated sex by “dry-humping” Perth seafood tycoon Nicholas Kailis, who was said to have responded to the prank with aggression.
McCarthy says: “I was at the other event at Nigel Satterley’s house but left before the alleged incident.”]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/how-mates-delayed-fall-of-troy-buswell/story-e6frgczx-1226855330404#
“@bencubby: 15 mins before start of Sydney #MarchinMarch, poiring rain, and crowd still at state league soccer levels.”
guytaur@2174
I don’t welcome or accept advice from people who are Greens or indistinguishable from them.
I support reform to empower members.
feeney
Great to see you back! Glad you agree but as you know there is no interest like self interest and some people will fight to the death if it advances their position.
feeney@2176
You will understand if you go back and read my posts earlier today.
David M
Thanks for that re the Murdoch Sunday paper. I thought Perth was completely free of Murdoch papers.
bemused
My advice was only to get together with like minded members and get the reform you want to do. I also used the term members like you so you would understand its advice not telling you what to do.
I happen to agree with you that Greens should be more open and transparent to the voting public on their processes too.
Advice you feel free to give out to Green people.
“@PeterFosterALP: Many issues in #MarchInMarch including Gonski, Medicare, Climate Change, NBN, Cuts to Pensions, Asylum Seekers, Marriage Equality #auspol”
Six months as PM and already being accused of being a drag on his state counterparts.
[South Australian opposition and Liberal leader Steven Marshall has rejected suggestions the presence of Prime Minister Tony Abbott in the state in the last week of the election campaign may have denied him victory.]
This must be unprecedented for a newly-elected, first term PM.
[I am inclined to go with those who will break the factional strangle hold that has brought us some outrageous pre-selection outcomes.]
bemused
Hope that can happen. It’s time for the Conroy and Carr factions to disappear.
Just getting ready to head off for the March. Huge storm in Sydney but finished & much cooler now. It’s a sign!
BH
I would agree with you on that!
A lot of time was put in to the Faulkner Bracks Carr review and it is probably sitting in a draw somewhere.
Some in the Labor party do not want change because it may threaten their positions.
Hopefully the increase in numbers of the ALP members after the members had a vote on the Leadership will effect some changes.
I must admit that I saw no need for the weighting of 350 for caucus members but maybe that to can disappear.
mikehilliard
Can you give us some feedback when you get back please!
BH@2186
It is like a duopoly operating in Victoria with their ‘stability pact’ which just means both sides meet to divide up the spoils in complete disregard of what the members want.
Bob Such just saying that the Libs put out a lot of material accusing him of supporting Labor “which will make it much harder for me to support the Libs now”. Reasoning – the voters thought he was Laborish and voted for him.
MTBW
Sure thing.
Channel9News has set a tweet after some of us complaining about lack of coverage for #MarchinMarch rallies compared to “the Convoy” flop courtesy of Alan Jones Anway they said they were there and hope?? to have the photos on the News tonight.
Now which one or all of them not sure
Good turnout at Adelaide march.
I know some here have a bit of fun having a Green Belt as it were, but it seems so much wasted energy.
Those who vote Green, at least at the Federal level, represent some 10% of the electorate – spread thinly like strawberry jam across Oz with a poor seat return as opposed to dollops of National’s votes harvesting plenty for the conservatives – and, if I were a Green voter, I would have reason to be some what peeved about this.
To this add the avowed aim of The Australian to wipe the Greens out at the ballot box, and, again, as a Green voter I might get even more peeved.
However, Labor supporters (who are into the Green Belt) need to ask just where this 10% of the vote for the Greens materialises from? A goodly number (5% say) are ex-Labor voters. The raw fact that 80% of Green’s preferences come back to Labor, on most occasions, seems to support this situation.
It is Labor which has an identity problem – bleeding the progressive and/or younger voter on the left but seemingly unable to capture the Arching Bunker vote – especially those living in the country and in rural towns and cities – on the right.
As I pointed out with Troy Buswell, in his seat he got an increased majority at the last election, he is still a bit of a pin up boy, and many down there would vote for Attila the Hun before they voted Labor. That is, a Labor candidate, in the country in WA, is almost a museum item because Labor seems incapable of finding a message for these voters.
As I said, cheap shots against the Greens is easy.
Finding a new path for Labor not so.
Thanks Mike!
Simon Adelaide on 24 as Bob Such interviewed.
Otherwise no mention
Tricot
[As I said, cheap shots against the Greens is easy.]
Agree!
MTBW@2198
And necessary.
[All cosmetics tested on animals would be banned in Australia under a proposal by the Greens.
Senator Lee Rhiannon will on Monday introduce a private member’s bill to ban all animal-tested cosmetics in Australia, including those imported from countries that test on animals.
And Labor’s deputy leader Tanya Plibersek will this week separately launch a national consultation on phasing out the importation, manufacture, sale and advertising of cosmetics or cosmetic ingredients tested on animals.
Ms Plibersek would not comment on the Greens’ bill before it is debated in Parliament, but the Greens are confident of securing Labor’s support for its legislation.
In June, the Humane Research Australia commissioned research showing that 81 per cent of Australians supported a total ban on the sale of cosmetics tested on animals.
But Senator Rhiannon’s bill would have a big effect on imports, banning the sale of all cosmetics tested on animals overseas, and made of ingredients that have been tested on animals.
It is expected the move would have a particular impact on the importation of cosmetics from mainland China, where it is still mandatory for all cosmetics to be tested on animals before being sold.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/greens-to-move-for-ban-on-animaltested-cosmetics-20140315-34tts.html#ixzz2w5Z1VlmN