This week’s 51-49 Newspoll result has caused a slight moderation in this week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which blew out to 52.2-47.8 last week on the back of strong result for Labor from ReachTEL. The 0.5% shift has had a bigger-than-usual effect on the seat projection, with Labor slipping four seats to barely make it to majority government status. This amounts to one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia. There are two new data points for leaders’ ratings, from Newspoll and Essential, and they’ve caused the trendlines to continue moving in the directions they were already headed – inexorably downwards for both leaders on net approval, with a gently narrowing trend on preferred prime minister.
Good he’s here 🙂 😛
Centre
News for you. The Greens vote fell when they supported a Labor Minority Government.
Thats a fact.
ross mcg
[The world would not be enough for Rupert!]
Unfortunately no and it’s showing in his tweets lately. I have to give him kudos for building an international corporation from the old “News” in Adelaide and his father’s Melbourne base but that’s all. His hunger for personal power is ghastly.
Lizzie, what worried me about what Wilkie said is that he several times stated that the Coalition told lies and won because of those lies. And everyone accepted that that is just the way things are these days. No one thought to hold the media responsible for not highlighting those lies. We seem to have lost any kind of moral compass.
Why didn’t Insiders show Abbott making a fool of himself with the school kids? Too trivial? They didn’t show footage of kids throwing sandwiches at Gillard, did they? Or of Gillard falling over in India when her heel became caught in the grass?
And some people still believe that the ABC are biassed to the left.
Guytaur
[The Greens vote fell when they supported a Labor Minority Government.]
Of course, that’s where people discovered their true lunacy.
Centre
No the Greens vote fell for supporting Labor.
The cost of supporting a government suffering the Its Time factor.
Helen
I think there’s too much of “well, he would say that, wouldn’t he” and then they move on. No one wants to look below the surface. I agree that on many subjects, the media have allowed the lies to be put out there and repeated them as if they’re true.
March in March is on. No media coverage so far.
Compare and contrast with Alan Jones convoy of trucks
Centre
Your posts would mean more to me if you didn’t repeat “loons” so often. That’s just calling names in the schoolyard.
Guytaur
Champion was referring to any agreement with the Greens that may involve a minority government in future.
I’d suggest that you stop bracketing the Greens with Labor in your comments as if they’re a coalition.
It’s not going to happen – it’s over!
[ No one wants to look below the surface. ]
Unless its a Labor stuff up etc.
Then…..
lizzie
Ditto from me!
It will be interesting to see if Greens second preferences help Labor to hold power in SA.
What ill informed crap is being written here today about the malapportionment of SA electorates.
It is not a gerrymander. There is no political interference. Electorates are redrawn every 4 years by an independent body, which attempts to combat malapportionment.
In SA there can only be a 10% variance of electorate populations.There are 47 seats each with 23,000 voters (+ or – 10%).
In Queensland where Joe himself strategically manipulated the electorates, the very purpose was to not have equivalence of numbers in each electorate, for nefarious reasons.
That is what gerrymandering is about, ie manipulation of electorate numbers by non-independent authorities, for the purpose of manipulating vote values.
The extremes in 1972 were Pine Rivers (16,700 voters) and Gregory (6,700 voters).
I’ll leave it to bright sparks like Mod Lib to point out which of those 2 electorates was Labor, and which one contained Joe voters who enjoyed a vote of almost 3 times the value of a Labor vote.
Centre
Champion is talking BS and knows it. Labor is not going to refuse government because its a minority as we are about to see in SA.
You will not be able to buy the Murdoch BS that’s because of the Greens in that case.
BH
Newscorp owns the Perth Sunday Times which are running a few stories against the West Australian and the Libs. I suspect they are trying to break up the cosy relationship
[THE chief-of-staff to former treasurer Troy Buswell begged her boss to stop drinking just hours before he allegedly had a series of prangs while driving home drunk from a wedding.
Insiders say Rachael Turnseck refused to watch her boss ruin his career at the February 22 event that led to his downfall, and left about 11pm.
Another source said they had regular “fierce fights’’ about his drinking.
Despite a history that includes scandals such as chair-sniffing and bra snapping, Mr Buswell, 48, was considered one of the Liberal Party’s best fundraisers, and Ms Turnseck would often chaperone him.
But at the wedding soiree of wine baron Vince Salpietro and Meme Luong, Ms Turnseck’s worst fears came true.]
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/buswells-chiefofstaff-begged-him-to-stop-drinking-on-illfated-night/story-fnhocxo3-1226855762927
Centre
Maybe Labor should not accept any Greens preferences in the SA ballot and give the power to the Libs.
The ALP (and the LNP) can make as many comments as they like about keeping away from the Greens, but there will be times in the future when neither major gets a majority and someone will have to deal with the Greens, and they will do so regardless of past pronouncements.
Positioning and posturing are all very well, but it does get ridiculous very quickly when practical matters of who will form government and passing legislation enter the picture.
MTBW @ 2113
That’s a silly comment. You are another that fail to understand the preferential voting system.
Green preferences do not help Labor. People who vote 1 Greens can allocate their preferences as they wish.
*shakes head in pure disbelief of the stupidity!
I’ll stop using the word LOONS when I see people get real!
Weatherill presser now 24
Cassidy says on Insiders “no-one saw this coming” (ie the possible return of SA Labor).
I guess he meant “I didn’t see this coming”. So insightful.
Guess he’d overlooked the car industry, current Abbott government performance, Weatherill Vs a raw newbie, and the newbie’s “I’ll work with Tones” proclamation, just to name a few factors as obvious as canines testicles that might have assisted Labor.
@perthnow: Colin Barnett was preparing to announce he would step down as Premier next year until Troy Buswell’s latest crisis: http://t.co/AFFxsE82dx
MTBW @ 2117
You can never appreciate how stupid I find your statement at a time when I am thoroughly analysing footy betting markets.
“@TheKouk: This #MarchInMarch thing seems remarkably large”
Centre
Did you put some money on SA Labor at 12/1 whenI said it was a good bet?
Centre
How many ballots have you scrutineered?
If you have you will notice that we don’t get preferences from the Libs or Family First or any others.
I don’t vote Green I vote Labor and any preference flows from the Greens generally help to get Labor over the line.
You can say that Greens bite into the Labor vote but it is where their preferences go that matters.
In terms of forming a minority Govt, the likely scenario will probably see the LNP and ALP both saying to the Greens Party or PUP ‘you know our agenda, we’re not negotiating anything, take your pick’.
MTBW@2117
The Greens have a clearly stated objective of ‘replacing the bastards’. Now just which party do they bleed their votes from and plan to replace?
The Greens are a parasitic organism sucking life and energy out of Labor.
If Labor tells them to bugger off, as it should, lets see them go and support the Libs. Of course they won’t because they rely on duping people who would otherwise vote Labor and it would destroy them.
Center is right. In fact he is probably too kind.
[What ill informed crap is being written here today about the malapportionment of SA electorates.]
psyclaw
Sky mob this morning were blaming this and Insiders went along with it. I guess they have to find something other than the Abbott Govt. to blame for SA Libs cruising for a bruising from a well run Labor campaign.
Whoever ran the SA campaign needs to transfer to the federal sphere. Was Bruce Hawker involved at all?
Diogs
No.
But more importantly for yourself, did you?
Centre
Maybe you should stick to footy betting markets 😆
MTBW@2126
If the Greens were not there tempting ALP voters, those Greens preferences would be first preferences for Labor.
Similarly, Fundys First and other loons of the right predominantly draw votes from people who would otherwise vote Lib.
We don’t need the Greens. They are loons and a menace.
Centre
Not allowed to bet on elections in SA!!
Someone one the SA thread said he put $10 of Labor on Betfair at 25/1!! Now that’s a smart bet.
Rex Douglas –
I agree that there are certainly options as far as there being a greater or lesser degree of formal cooperation – and it can be as loose as you suggest – avoid any formal undertakings and just test support on the floor of the house and see who is standing at the end of the day.
I don’t think this will lessen any of the negative connotations for whoever forms government, and it can only add to the sense of uncertainty/chaos around whoever forms government, so to me it seems a bit self defeating, but still it may well be how this is approached in future.
bemused
[Center is right. In fact he is probably too kind.]
Did you wake up on the wrong side of the bed this morning? 😆
Rex Douglas
No matter what you say about Gillard, stupid is not a word I have heard her called.
She formed a government with others and made agreements to do so for good reasons.
Despite the crap some spin with.
MTBW
The Greens get no credit for a voter who marks Greens 1, then numbers Labor ahead of Liberal.
That voter has every right to number Liberal ahead of Labor, it’s his or her choice, it’s got nothing to do with the Greens – get real!
bemused
Fantasy is nt reality. The Greens are there.
Rex
From what I saw last night PUP was going nowhere in the ballot.
Rex Douglas – oh, and in terms of “dealing with the Greens” (or PUP or anyone else), it’s not just minority government (although that gets the biggest headlines and the biggest negative reaction from the public), but also the much more common issue of passing legislation. If the ALP, for example, want to pass legislation through the Senate they are basically obliged to deal with either the LNP or the Greens … yes they can take their pick depending on circumstances, but to pretend they will have nothing to do with the Greens is just silly. That’s like handing a blank cheque to the LNP – utterly crap bargaining, like Abbott telling the Chinese he’d do whatever it took to get a free trade deal signed.
Centre
You truly do not understand the preference system.
Where Greens preferences go matters as they are votes. The word preferences in front of them does not mean they are not votes
Centre
You are clutching at straws let’s see how it turns out in the end.
Back to betting for you 😡
MTBW@2135
I have been a bit ambivalent about the Greens in the past but there is now enough hard evidence and I have made up my mind.
Mind you, their greatest helpers are those who oppose the ALP cleaning up its act with party reform. Failure to reform will lead to more ALP voters and members heeding the siren call of the Greens.
Wow Weatherill really angry
bemused
[Mind you, their greatest helpers are those who oppose the ALP cleaning up its act with party reform. Failure to reform will lead to more ALP voters and members heeding the siren call of the Greens.]
Absolutely agree!
Diogs @ 2133
Yes, that is a good bet.
The market 40%
The odds 40%
The form 20%
*keep it quiet 😎
guytaur
What is Weatherill saying?
Jay Weatherill impresses me. Cool, calm and considered answers to the journos on 24.
If he has won this, and that is not entirely certain yet, I look to him placing his stamp on the SA Govt and refreshing and renewing it to go on to a greater victory next time.
We are getting a bit of rain in Sydney thankfully we really need it.
MTBW
Presser finished. Now understand the anger. During campaign someone tried to link him to child abuse.