BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor

The latest poll aggregate puts Labor back in parliamentary majority territory, as a new result from ReachTEL makes the Coalition’s strong result from Nielsen a fortnight ago look still more like an anomaly.

Following on from the thumping Labor lead in last week’s Newspoll, the addition of the latest ReachTEL to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate causes Labor to regain nearly all the ground it lost on the back of last fortnight’s Nielsen. However, with new contrary signals emerging through a shift back to the Coalition in Essential Research, it’s perhaps telling that the two-party trendline (displayed as always on the sidebar) looks as though it’s not sure which way to turn. Labor is now back into majority territory on the national seat projection, having picked up three seats each in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland and a further one in the territories (i.e. Solomon). It’s interesting to note that the state breakdowns show emphatic swings to Labor except where they govern at state level, at least until next Saturday’s elections. On the primary vote, Labor makes a gain this week directly at the expense of the Coalition, while the Palmer United Party is up slightly on a post-election low last week. There is no new data for leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,396 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 65 of 68
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  1. [ I find it hard to believe that the CIA is responsible for the USSR/Russia’s so obviously well planned invasion of Crimea.]

    Russia has its own NSA…and released a phone embarrassing phone recordings by the goons demonstrating that it was indeed a plan. This is where the $5bn figure was revealed…the cost to foment a coup.

    Russia was aware what was going down at some time and no doubt prepared themselves for it.

  2. Bugler@3193

    Mikehilliard,

    I can’t remember the specifics, but my friend said skills that were formerly required in year 9 were now required in year 8 in mathematics and science, etc. I quizzed her on whether than meant that some of those skills therefore had to be taught in Primary School, and she said yes.

    It’s not that it’s not possible, though. I was in a streaming program where I skipped year 7 Maths and English. Whether something that was just one class in the school can be replicated across the whole school is another matter.

    That tells me standards must have bottomed out a few years ago and heading back to what they once were.

  3. I agree with Zoomster re Kennett
    _______________________________
    Kennett has never been seen as depressed
    He however depressed millions of Victorians by his reactionary policies during his period in Govt

    It is well know that since losing office he has had a number of tries at finding some sort of niche for himself as ex-pollies do…but has been seen as pretty unsuccessful
    as nobody can work with him.

    Hitler had the same problem

    He first tried broadcasting on several stations,and on one he took a major role ,and lost much , invested money in the failure of that station..and he still pops up too on every opportunity in 3AW..he loooves radio !!!!!
    Nothing can shut him up

    He uses it to put out his views now on internal Lib Party matters and he helped unhorse Bailleau

    Then he took up the Hawthorn Football Club,and in the end they were glad to be rid of him

    At”Beyond Blue”he had many run-ins with members of the Board and some left finding his impossible to work with

    His former media man,Stephen Mayne,gave a most lucid and revealing picture of Kennet in Office,to a Fabian Conf just after his fall…his method of organisation when Premier borrowed much from Mussolini and sundry other people of like mind,and he ran the party and govt along similar lines..
    Victoria was .a true one-party state for a time..and much fear in many areas notably the media..though the ABC stood up to him..and Faine got a unforgetable interview in the last week of he campaign …which must have been very damaging to him

    Nothing ecscaped his attention,and a supine party followed every demand ”’talk about stalinist…he was in many ways close to Joh’s modus operandi but Melbourne is different to Brisbane and a good deal more savvy and sophisticated and aware….probably the most such city in Australia

    In the end he lost to the surprise and delight of all of us

    Can anyone ever forget that last period of Kennettry

    The Saturday night when the size of the swing amazed us all.. the long drawn out count…the delay for the Frankston by-election caused by the death of the Lib Member on polling day..and the wait for the decisions of the 3 indies
    Oh Glorious day when he went

  6. Thomas Paine

    [I find it hard to believe that the CIA is responsible for the USSR/Russia’s so obviously well planned invasion of Crimea.

    Russia has its own NSA…and released a phone embarrassing phone recordings by the goons demonstrating that it was indeed a plan. This is where the $5bn figure was revealed…the cost to foment a coup.

    Russia was aware what was going down at some time and no doubt prepared themselves for it.]

    But why would the CIA want to control Ukraine? It has nothing much of value to USA. It gave up its nuclear weapons and the EU/USA seem to have no intent nor ability to protect it.

    I find it hard to understand why “left” thinking people see the current Russian government as anything but a quasi-dictatorial right-wing nationalist one, a bit like the USA.

  8. Bugler@3193

    I’m not an expert on education but my youngest started in Y7 this year, moved from a Catholic primary to independent non denominational high school. I admit there was a period of 3-4 weeks where she struggled but is now into the swing of it.

    I guess what I’m trying to say is that young minds adapt quickly to changes in their teaching, particularly when the move form primary to secondary schooling. I would expect school’s to introduce the NC as a gradual process & the little sponges to take it up as they do.

    I would think that the real benefit or not will only become apparent years down the track but I do support a move away from the more traditional methods. I mean what relevance does 1066 the battle of Hastings have with a 12 year old now?

  9. I was happy when Henry Bolte got the flick. Oh he had drink driving issues as well.

    [On 24 March 1984, Bolte was involved in a serious head-on accident when he was driving home after an evening in the local hotel near his property at Bamganie. Bolte and the occupants of the other car were taken to the Ballarat Base Hospital, where blood samples were taken to test for alcohol levels. Whilst there was no evidence of alcohol in the blood of the other driver involved, there were indications of an alcohol content in excess of 0.05% in Bolte’s blood. Subsequently, further samples were collected from the hospital by the police, but these were found to have been substituted, and the sample box containing them had been unlocked by an unknown person. An enquiry found that it would have been unfair to proceed with prosecution because of interference with the evidence.]

    Of course it would. 🙁

  10. Bugler

    [As someone who’s looked more in depth on mental health policy, at least seems to be among the most knowledgeable commenters on the subject, do you think that depression and anxiety disorders can be appropriately managed within high-stress and high-responsibility positions? What workplace measures are appropriate to manage such conditions? (Sorry, a big ask, but it’s something I think is important)]

    It certainly is possible to have depression/anxiety and be in a high stress position. It’s a question of being able to manage the illness and the job.

    Many doctors have depression or anxiety. If you can manage your job, you can normally manage the illness.

    For surgeons, that means not performing high-risk operations, doing the more bread-and-butter operations, not doing much emergency work, and getting a few sessions off a week.

    The problem is when your job controls you and you have no control of your environment.

    Being a politician would be especially difficult due to the scrutiny, conflict and back-stabbing. The Senate would be a lot better than the HOR.

    Some of the greatest people in history have worked despite severe depression including Abraham Lincoln while he was president, Charles Darwin and Churchill.

    JK Rowling had severe depression and based the Dementors on her experience of having your fears targetted and your soul sucked out.

  11. Shake up at the Gruniad.

    [Janine Gibson, the Guardian US editor, is returning to London to be editor-in-chief of the paper’s website as part of a senior management restructure.

    Gibson, who moved to New York in 2011 to launch the Guardian US digital operation and played a leading role in overseeing the paper’s award-winning Edward Snowden revelations, will take up her new role as a deputy editor of Guardian News & Media and editor-in-chief of theguardian.com in the summer.

    Katharine Viner, launch editor of Guardian Australia in 2013, will be moving from Sydney to New York to replace Gibson as Guardian US editor-in-chief. Viner is also a deputy editor of GNM.

    Alan Rusbridger, the GNM editor-in-chief, said: “Janine has done an extraordinary job launching and editing Guardian US. She has pioneered award-winning, agenda-setting digital journalism, assembled a first-rate team, and built a hugely significant audience in the US.

    “Katharine has done a terrific job in Australia, opening a brand-new operation in Sydney, hiring a fantastic team of interesting and talented journalists, increasing traffic dramatically, setting the agenda, and quickly establishing the Guardian as a force to be reckoned with in Australian journalism.”

    Emily Wilson, theguardian.com’s UK network editor, will replace Viner as editor of Guardian Australia.]

  16. Swamprat

    Re the Crimea
    _______________

    The Crimea came under Russian control in the 18th century under Catherine the Great
    It true that it had a varie of “owners ” in it’s history ,,incuding th ancient Greeks and the Tarters

    But after Catherine it bacame the pivot to Russian naval ambitions and it’s Middle East policies and it’s conflicts with decaying Ottoman Empire
    Which in the 19th century lead onto the Crimean War with the British and French
    Until Kruschev’s gambit in 1954,when in a drunken moment he tranferred it to Kievs’ administation rather than Moscows’ nobody had ever seen it asy anything but Russian

    It was the scene of a massive Russian defence in 1941 when hundreds of thousands of Russians died in the seige of the port of Sebastopol(250 days)by the Nazi armies
    Few Russians are ever going to see it as anything but Russian after those events

  17. or Nothing

    [http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/conservative-former-us-republican-presidential-candidate-rick-santorum-endorses-lessons-from-hardliner-tony-abbott-20140310-34gn3.html]

    Imagine a Liberal Party toad being called a “hardliner”!!!!

  19. Eewww

    I just looked up a Santorum in Urban Dictionary.

    [santorum
    1. That frothy mixture of lube and fecal matter that is sometimes the by-product of anal sex. ]

    How can froth run for the Republican party?

  21. Actually Santorum has a point. Australia is well to the left of the US generally and we still ended up with someone the Repugs would consider a right wing “hardliner”.

  24. [Was there a poll of best Prime Ministers recently?]

    There was. Essential polled it, as they have twice in the past I believe.

  25. deblonay

    You read like some British Imperial blimp. Thousands of red coats died in Imperial wars throughout the world. So what?

    I believe in self-determintion but if the Russian Crimea segment of their population wants change it cannot have a free vote with Russian thugs intimidating opposition and 20,000 Russian troops forbidding observers etc.

  27. I think the first thing I would do after being endorsed by any Republican would be to have a good, hard look at how I became such a raging screw-up.

    I imagine that for Abbott, it would be the best day of his life.

  28. Thank-you, Diogenes. Watching 4Corners I would think mental health issues among politicians would be pretty low order compared to what the police investigators have to deal with

  33. @Mod Lib/3231

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 21h

    #Essential Poll Aust’s best PM: Howard 39 Hawke 14 Rudd 8 Whitlam 8 Keating 7 Gillard 4 Abbott 3 Fraser 3 #auspol

  34. CT

    [ I’m struggling to work out how that fits in.

    He couldn’t find a job after WWII.

    😀 ]

    Don’t spoil it for me!!

    I’m only up to 1924 in Kershaw’s Hitler biography.

  38. Tom

    [I will spoil it for you, Hitler won the war.]

    I know that. I have read “The Man in the High Castle” and “Fatherland”. 👿

  39. 3235

    Only 3 Liberal PMs in the living memory of most voters. Abbott has only been in a few months, Fraser is is a bit to Liberal and seen to have missed opportunities for the conservative side and the only other is Howard. That compares to 5 ALP PMs.

  40. Team Abbott would be mightily pissed that their first foray into WA since the election to campaign ahead of the Senate re-run vote here has been completely overshadowed by the Buswell fall-out.

    Apart from some extra GST primers for WA, did Abbott make any significant announcements today? If so they appear to have sunk without trace.

    He is leaving tomorrow thank heavens, but WA being Treasurer-less in the lead up to budget should still be making news.

  41. [#Essential Poll Aust’s best PM: Howard 39 Hawke 14 Rudd 8 Whitlam 8 Keating 7 Gillard 4 Abbott 3 Fraser 3 #auspol]

    Such polls are total garbage in any evaluative sense.

    The answers are actually to a poll question that asks, given your experience of the media in Australia and your short term memory and your total lack of knowing whether Australia is a (southern?) State in the USA , who do you think is the “bestest” PM (Guvanor) of that State?.

  43. Republicans Presidential (potential) candidate Rick Santorum endorses Abbott!

    be a good thing if Abbott joined him as a running mate —in the USA. Millions of Aussies would be happy to see that

  45. [swamprat
    Posted Monday, March 10, 2014 at 9:21 pm | PERMALINK
    #Essential Poll Aust’s best PM: Howard 39 Hawke 14 Rudd 8 Whitlam 8 Keating 7 Gillard 4 Abbott 3 Fraser 3 #auspol

    Such polls are total garbage in any evaluative sense.]

    I reckon you wouldn’t have argued that case if it was Hawke 39 Howard 14 Rudd…..etc

    There were 3 LNP governments and 3 ALP governments in that time…..you can’t blame the Liberal Party for the ALP infighting meaning PMs get knifed (either by their own or the GG).

  47. They should do the poll from Menzies on and get the respondents to give a score out of 10.

    That would be more meaningful and account for number of LNP options.

  49. [They should do the poll from Menzies on and get the respondents to give a score out of 10.

    That would be more meaningful and account for number of LNP options.]

    Now you’re talking.

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