BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor

The latest poll aggregate puts Labor back in parliamentary majority territory, as a new result from ReachTEL makes the Coalition’s strong result from Nielsen a fortnight ago look still more like an anomaly.

Following on from the thumping Labor lead in last week’s Newspoll, the addition of the latest ReachTEL to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate causes Labor to regain nearly all the ground it lost on the back of last fortnight’s Nielsen. However, with new contrary signals emerging through a shift back to the Coalition in Essential Research, it’s perhaps telling that the two-party trendline (displayed as always on the sidebar) looks as though it’s not sure which way to turn. Labor is now back into majority territory on the national seat projection, having picked up three seats each in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland and a further one in the territories (i.e. Solomon). It’s interesting to note that the state breakdowns show emphatic swings to Labor except where they govern at state level, at least until next Saturday’s elections. On the primary vote, Labor makes a gain this week directly at the expense of the Coalition, while the Palmer United Party is up slightly on a post-election low last week. There is no new data for leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,396 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor”

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  1. [She authorised a PUP advertisement for the Tasmanian Election.
    Clear enough.]

    Ah ha. Should have been obvious but wasn’t. Thanks ABC. (and bemused)

    Even so Tasmania penalty upto 1 year, Federal no sit over 1 year. ABC still wrong.

  2. ruawake@3151

    She authorised a PUP advertisement for the Tasmanian Election.
    Clear enough.


    Ah ha. Should have been obvious but wasn’t. Thanks ABC. (and bemused)

    Even so Tasmania penalty upto 1 year, Federal no sit over 1 year. ABC still wrong.

    Storm in a teacup compared with Buswell.

  3. Geofrey and Twaddle
    ________________
    I share Fran B’s view of Putin ,but it is also obvious that the neo-cons …who are warmongers par excellence and the main force in the US Empire will try and use the Ukraine to help in their openly espoused task of encircling Russsia

    and my view is reinforced by a noted US writer.Craig Paul oberts ,Former Asst-Tres to Reagan and editor of the Wall, Street Journal before it became a Murdoch tool)

    Roberts is certainly no leftie but sees the current neo-fascist regime install;ed by CIA actions in Kiev…$5 billion dollars worth according to US Asst Sec Nuland… as one that will be entirely in the grip of that other US tool ..the IMF…which if you read what Roberts says…to will strip the Ukraine economy…he uses the word plunder…tear the guts out of the majority of the mostly poor people there..and take hold of its agricultural industries..about all the Ukraine has left

    read Roberts article and stop claiming that those who disagree with you view are old stalinists

    your sympathy for fascists and neo-nazies here is what is truly worring

    http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/03/06/looting-ukraine-begun/

  4. Funny the only way to stop a person from taking their place in the Tasmanian parliament. “No person who is in prison under any conviction.”

  5. I think you have 24 hours to report an accident so the drink driving thing probably doesn’t apply.

    When I hit the kangaroo, the police didn’t breatho me. I think it’s only if you attend hospital that an alcohol test is mandatory.

  6. Jackol,

    [PUP could well vote against any such package.]

    That really assumes PUP and Muir vote together all the time, which I think isn’t a given. The PUP Senators have been given a job for six years where loyalty to Clive is no requirement. I recall at least a few occasions where PUP senators-elect/candidates don’t share Clive’s views on things such as immigration. Considering PUP doesn’t really stand for anything, and has nothing binding them other than Clive’s sponsorship I think it’s pretty much inevitable at least one of them will split with PUP, and I doubt PUP will even be around when their term expires.

  7. In the ACT, a “mate” of mine was pissed and spun his car hitting nobody, the neighbours complained to the police, he ran home leaving the car parked.

    He then hid from the police until the morning, when he turned himself in, sober. He was still charged with avoiding a breath test.

  8. ruawake@3154

    Funny the only way to stop a person from taking their place in the Tasmanian parliament. “No person who is in prison under any conviction.”

    So minor issues like insanity or death are no impediment?
    Oh well, it is Tasmania. 😉

  9. Qanda. Tonight’s Panel
    George Brandis – Attorney-General and Minister for the Arts
    Chris Bowen – Shadow Treasurer
    Lisa Wilkinson – Journalist and television presenter
    Marcia Langton – Professor of Indigenous Studies
    Sharri Markson – Media Editor, The Australian

  10. &.30 now on, trying like billy-oh to get someone, anyone to volunteer the word “Terrorist”.

    The media SO want it to be terrosism.

    They’re all “war journalists” at heart.

  11. ruawake@3158

    In the ACT, a “mate” of mine was pissed and spun his car hitting nobody, the neighbours complained to the police, he ran home leaving the car parked.

    He then hid from the police until the morning, when he turned himself in, sober. He was still charged with avoiding a breath test.

    Hmmm big call, just because they couldn’t find him didn’t necessarily mean he was trying to avoid them. 😛

  12. Hmmm…we famously had a local VIP who scarpered off on foot when pulled over by a traffic cop, and so was not tested — his avoidance of testing meant that not only was it automatically assumed he was over the limit, but that the penalty was doubled.

  13. [Hmmm big call, just because they couldn’t find him didn’t necessarily mean he was trying to avoid them]

    I … er he was trying to hide from them. 😆

  14. Dio,

    [I knew about the charges and her mental condition long before the media reported it. If I knew about it, everyone in politics and the media would have known about it.]

    Guytaur raised a point with me earlier saying it was good that the Liberals appeared to support people with mental health issues. As someone who’s looked more in depth on mental health policy, at least seems to be among the most knowledgeable commenters on the subject, do you think that depression and anxiety disorders can be appropriately managed within high-stress and high-responsibility positions? What workplace measures are appropriate to manage such conditions? (Sorry, a big ask, but it’s something I think is important)

  15. ruawake@3164

    Hmmm big call, just because they couldn’t find him didn’t necessarily mean he was trying to avoid them


    I … er he was trying to hide from them.

    That’s for him to know and them to prove. 😆

  16. Interesting in WA.

    [Has in any part of Her Majesty’s dominions been convicted of treason or felony.]

    Is the reason for being ineligible to sit in WA parliament.

  17. I’m reading a report on Mental Health in the workplace by the AHRC which says Geoff Gallop has an (unspecified) mental health issue, so I guess that answers my own question.

  18. Bugler, Gallop publicly disclosed donkey’s years ago that he suffers from chronic depression. In fact I think he might have even cited it when he resigned as WA Premier. At any rate, he’s never hidden the fact since he got a firm diagnosis and, like Geoff Kennett, has played a constructive role in increasing the general public’s understanding of the illness.

  19. I originally thought the US would be content in winning the Ukraine to its power ex Crimea.

    The price for the neo nazi extremists getting into power seems to be all the Ukraine gold (33 tons) which is now in the US, which they will never see again (as Germany about that).

    The big worry for Europe and us all is if the US thinks it can get Russia out of Crimea and assert its own control there via their installed Ukraine govt. Russia will Not let this happen, or be removed from its base there.

    If the US were to press this with genuine intent then rapid escalation will ensue both in the Ukraine and surrounds And also for US and allied assets outside. The cost of any sort of victory in the Crimea by the US would come at very heavy cost to themselves, Russia will make sure of it. The Crimea has extreme strategic significance to Russia. Look forward to $4/liter fuel.

    I believe that if Russia determines that the US is fanatical about its intent to remove Russia from the Crimea they will preempt moves to demonstrate the pain they can cause the US. Not military pains…economic and strategic pains that hits at the mainland.

  20. There are so many ways Buswell could have avoided any real legal problems with the police if he reported the incident,
    without this whole cover up/mental health mess evolving, that one wonders who his advisers are.

  21. [I’m reading a report on Mental Health in the workplace by the AHRC which says Geoff Gallop has an (unspecified) mental health issue, so I guess that answers my own question.]

    Gallop resigned as Premier citing mental health issues at the time.

  22. I think Kennett only became depressed after he got kicked out of office. I don’t think he is chronically depressed.

  23. Pyne’s review of the National Curriculum, in particular “Western Values” garners support from the usual suspects.

    [A group of religious private schools has called for the national curriculum to include a “western/Judeo-Christian” influence category, an idea that is likely to appeal to the team reviewing what students are taught.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/10/national-curriculum-call-to-boost-western-judeo-christian-influence?CMP=twt_gu

  24. Thanks Al Dente and Confessions. Not sure what it says about managing mental health in those kind of workplace conditions, though. It’s good they’ve both brought attention to the issue as well.

  25. Sohar

    Jeff Kennett once told Neil Mitchell that depression was a load of bullshit.

    That was, until he got booted out of politics.

    Oh dear!

    Big hoopla on local news about pensioners getting a much needed boost to their pensions thanks to the federal government.

  26. mikehilliard,

    I’m pretty sure the NC doesn’t even apply to them.

    On a side issue, the biggest criticism I’ve heard of NC is its implementation, as the skills required under NC are required a year earlier. This will be a particular problem in year 7, as NC assumes students know things they haven’t been taught in Primary School.

  27. Bugler@3168

    I’m reading a report on Mental Health in the workplace by the AHRC which says Geoff Gallop has an (unspecified) mental health issue, so I guess that answers my own question.

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/03/06/bludgertrack-52-2-47-8-to-labor/?comment_page=64/#comment-1929816“>Bugler@3168

    I’m reading a report on Mental Health in the workplace by the AHRC which says Geoff Gallop has an (unspecified) mental health issue, so I guess that answers my own question.

    He’s just nuts and a believer in the mad ideology of Kennettism which he inflicted on Victoria and from which we are still suffering.

  28. I remember Kennett saying he went through a period of depression after leaving office, and that it was the catalyst for him becoming involved with Beyond Blue. I’m not sure if he was confusing depression for self-pity.

  29. zoomster@3179

    I’ve never heard any suggestion that Kennett was/is suffering from depression.

    He’s just nuts and a believer in the mad ideology of Kennettism which he inflicted on Victoria and from which we are still suffering.

    Don’t know what happened before @3186.

  30. ANDREW DENTON: Was that your only personal experience with depression?

    JEFF KENNETT: No, that wasn’t… that wasn’t clinical depression. That was emotional depression. Emotional depression… you lose your job, you can be down in the dumps. If you lose a relative, you can be down in the dumps – a friend. The human body, mind, can work to adjust to that. Clinical depression is where you have a number of issues all coming together at the same time, and those ingredients may exist over a two, three, four, five-week period and then potentially get progressively worse. And for many people, the symptoms are different… Some are related to mind, some are related to issues to do with exercise, food, all sorts of things. But it’s just an illness and, unfortunately, enough people don’t present…to be correctly diagnosed, to be able to get on with their lives.

    ANDREW DENTON: Why did the Beyond Blue people approach you?

  31. Mikehilliard,

    I can’t remember the specifics, but my friend said skills that were formerly required in year 9 were now required in year 8 in mathematics and science, etc. I quizzed her on whether than meant that some of those skills therefore had to be taught in Primary School, and she said yes.

    It’s not that it’s not possible, though. I was in a streaming program where I skipped year 7 Maths and English. Whether something that was just one class in the school can be replicated across the whole school is another matter.

  32. A couple of weekends ago I has some vistors at the front gate. It was a bible basher and her daughter. We had a longish discussion on why people are religious and how they got thay way.
    The killer line was that this woman ointed to her daughter and said that she had been brought up well because she was allowed to make up her own mind to be baptized when she had turned 18. My retort was that she had already unfortunately irrepairably damaged the child well before then.
    She didn’t hang around any longer after that.

  33. Or is it Timmyism.

    [Queensland Treasurer Tim Nicholls will begin his listening tour on asset sales on Tuesday, but a union says he only wants to hear from people who agree.

    The invite-only meeting in Cairns will be held with selected community leaders, such as school principals, the chamber of commerce and mayors.

    Mr Nicholls is also planning to visit Townsville, Gladstone, Toowoomba, Bundaberg, Emerald, Brisbane, Longreach and the Gold and Sunshine Coasts.

    The Electrical Trades Union has called the closed-door events a sham.

    “I can see it now, Nicholls on the podium talking to LNP hacks about how poor the states finances are, complete with scary graphs and mindless nodding,” ETU state secretary Peter Simpson said in a statement.

    “And then straight out of the Thatcher doctrines he will say ‘there is no alternative we must sell assets’, the crowd erupts when they realise this is for them, an insider giving them a heads up: ‘Get in early and you’ll make a motza’. And after a bit of back slapping he’s gone like a thief in the night.”]

  34. T.P

    [it aint the politicians but the money behind them.]

    AJ were interviewing some of the people today who are supposed to ‘go back’.

    Majority response was ‘No’.

  35. deblonay

    [Roberts is certainly no leftie but sees the current neo-fascist regime install;ed by CIA actions in Kiev…$5 billion dollars worth according to US Asst Sec Nuland… as one that will be entirely in the grip of that other US tool ..the IMF…which if you read what Roberts says…to will strip the Ukraine economy…he uses the word plunder…tear the guts out of the majority of the mostly poor people there..and take hold of its agricultural industries..about all the Ukraine has left]

    While I instinctively distrust USA foreign policy and instinctively trust in CIA incompetence, I find it hard to believe that the CIA is responsible for the USSR/Russia’s so obviously well planned invasion of Crimea.

    Fran is wrong in saying Crimea was Russian. It was inhabited by the Crimean Tartars who were conquered by the Russians. They suffered genocide and deportation under the USSR and are now a minority in their own land. They seem to not want to be subjected to the Pulinist regime.

  36. BK:

    You are far more tolerant than me. The one and only time JoHos turned up at my gate peddling their delusional beliefs I told them I’d run over their car with the tractor unless they high-tailed it off my property quick smart.

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