Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

Nielsen’s debut result for the year gives the Coalition its first lead in a phone poll since November.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the first Nielsen poll of the year for the Fairfax papers shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, its first lead in a telephone poll since November and a reversal of the result in the previous Nielsen poll of November 21-23. The primary votes are 44% for the Coalition (up three), 33% for Labor (down four) and 12% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.

UPDATE: Personal ratings corroborate Newspoll in finding Bill Shorten’s strong early figures vanishing – he’s down eleven points on approval to 40%, and up ten on disapproval to 40% – while Tony Abbott is little changed at 45% (down two) and 47% (up one). Also reflecting Newspoll, this has made little difference to the preferred prime minister result, with Abbott’s lead up only slightly from 49-41 to 49-39.

UPDATE 2: Full details including state and gender breakdowns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,406 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. I am over the turkeys voting for Thanksgiving. If SA puts the Libs in after Holdens was closed by the Fed Coalition, then I am not going to stress about it. I can wait this one out.

  2. [We stopped using paddle steamers for trade quite a while ago…]

    And have been living on Govt subsidies before and after.

    [as a result of Gawler’s public works the colony was heavily in debt and relied on bail-outs from London to stay afloat. Gawler was recalled and replaced by Governor Grey in 1841. Grey slashed public expenditure]

    Seems everything old is new again.

  3. Adelaide has a specific culture and society just like the other cities do. It doesn’t need to justify its existence, nor is it going to be wiped out from the map. If you don’t care for it, fine. However, those who poke fun of it usually don’t have a clue what they’re talking about and do it because they think it makes them more interesting (it really doesn’t.)

  5. [I am over the turkeys voting for Thanksgiving. If SA puts the Libs in after Holdens was closed by the Fed Coalition, then I am not going to stress about it. I can wait this one out.]

    It’ll probably be a single term government anyway. We tend not to keep Liberal governments here for very long. If Marshall wins in a huge landslide, then maybe they’ll have enough seats to hang on for two (like they barely did in 1997.)

  7. rua,
    as did every colony at some time.

    I have no respect for states that cannot introduce a container deposit scheme like we have had in SA for over 30 years.

    During the last heat waves, 27% of our electricity was produced by renewables. We host the World Solar Challenge Race each year. We have a water desal plant, and any subsidies we need from our recalcitrant neighbours is well spent in showing those backward states the way of the future. (lol)

  8. poroti

    [zoidlord

    The TPP came up during the Howie years. Once reports started popping up about the ramifications Howard ran a mile. Even the GG was in full “Boo Hiss” mode re the TPP.]

    Yes but the corporate world has a lot more confidence now about getting more.

    Howard gave them a lot (moved the agenda a long way) though came unstuck with Work Choices.

    Rudd/Gillard hardly challenged the new extension.

    With Abbott they can extend it a lot more.

  9. [LABOR MP Melissa Parke has stepped down from the Opposition frontbench for family reasons.

    Ms Parke, a prominent member of Labor’s left who has campaigned strongly for the party to take a more humane approach to asylum-seeker and animal welfare issues, has tonight released a statement confirming her decision to step down from her role as the Opposition’s assistant spokeswoman for health.

    “Every one of us working in federal politics needs to strike a balance between the often extensive time and travel demands of parliamentary work, and the important ups-and-downs of family life,” Ms Parke said.

    “A member of my immediate family is facing a serious health issue and I need to make that a priority at this time,” she said.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/melissa-parke-stands-down-from-opposition-frontbench/story-fn59niix-1226829648893?from=public_rss

    I hope she can make it back to the front bench as Labor needs to develop its younger MPs for the future.

  12. I lived in Adelaide in the early 80s and have fond memories of the place, it is much maligned in my view. One of my sons was born there at the wonderfully named Burnside War Memorial Hospital.
    I did find a few people who were bit up themselves over the no convict blood thing.

  13. [I did find a few people who were bit up themselves over the no convict blood thing.]

    That’s true but, then again, show me a place in Australia that doesn’t have people who cling to something to be up themselves about.

  16. Puff

    [Carey,

    Adelaide has a specific culture and society…

    SHHH, don’t tell them or they will all want one.]

    I know so well.

    Growing up in darkest dumbest Qld, I admired SA and Don Dunstan so much.

    I used to think Adelaide must be a cultural paradise: the Athens of the South.

  17. [I did find a few people who were bit up themselves over the no convict blood thing.]

    Not any more!

    Convict heritage is considered a gloating point these days.

  21. ZOILORDS I belong to a yahoo group where people from all over the world have pinned up about 7000 classical concerts. Nobody has ever met each other, but we’ve organised an ftp server, which is paid for through paypal so we canca download everything for free. The internet really is an amazing village

  23. Best wishes to Melissa Parke and her family at this time. I hope she can return to the fron bench shortly. She is an excellent talent.

    As to Adelaide, I’ve always found it to be a relaxing, culturally conscious place to be. I have visited on many occasions.

    I hate QLD, eventhough born and bred here, and my choice of places to live would be Melbourne – clearly the best city to live by far – and Adelaide as a second choice.

  24. Scott Ludlam ‏@SenatorLudlam 2m

    let’s just call this what it is: Abbott is aiming to bankrupt clean energy industry in order to protect his fossil fuel donors #auspol

  25. [let’s just call this what it is: Abbott is aiming to bankrupt clean energy industry in order to protect his fossil fuel donors #auspol]

    As my daughter is fond of saying with a very bad fake russian accent “no big surprise”.

  32. zoidloid

    [Scott Ludlam ‏@SenatorLudlam 2m

    Abbott chooses a clean energy hater to review the renewable energy target http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/australia-chooses-climate-change-denier-to-head-renewables-review-65883 … time we put this government out of business]

    Our polity (and our media) has become so debauched that setting up royal commissions, enquiries with biased hacks is applauded as “smart” politics and there is no mainstream media questioning.

    The ‘right’ see it as the natural spoils of electoral victory.

    Parliamentary systems, however, only have continued legitimacy and support from acceptance of traditional (conservative?) values of political behaviour.

    It is why, I believe, the contemporary LNP is the most radical (and successful) party in modern Australian politics.

    It is successfully destroying the moderate centrist (“fair-go”) state with minimal effective opposition from the ALP/Greens.

    A large part of the LNP success is due to three things, Australia has:

    – a monopolistic (non-competitive) and politically cynical media;

    – a Labor Party that has little faith in its reason for existence and has adopted a Blairest neo-liberal view of the world ( i.e. pretty useless as an agent of challenge);

    – an electoral system that prevents signals of change being reflected in Parliament because results reflect space not electors so we have a dishonest Parliament not reflecting the first choice of electors.

  38. swamprat

    A small, somewhat pedantic point but… the LNP are not a ‘radical’ party. I can’t think of a single policy of theirs that can’t be adequately covered by the adjective ‘reactionary’.

  47. swamprat

    “I have never heard a Yank that did not have an annoying voice!!”

    I find many North American accents to be rather pleasant, particularly the much-maligned “southern” accent (particularly as utilised by the fairer sex). Beats the ‘strine/bogan affectations any day if the week.

  50. I like how the presence of an American with a conservative outlook immediately brings out the inner xenophobic and nationalist in any self-confessed ‘progressive’.

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