Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition

Nielsen’s debut result for the year gives the Coalition its first lead in a phone poll since November.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the first Nielsen poll of the year for the Fairfax papers shows the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, its first lead in a telephone poll since November and a reversal of the result in the previous Nielsen poll of November 21-23. The primary votes are 44% for the Coalition (up three), 33% for Labor (down four) and 12% for the Greens (up one). More to follow.

UPDATE: Personal ratings corroborate Newspoll in finding Bill Shorten’s strong early figures vanishing – he’s down eleven points on approval to 40%, and up ten on disapproval to 40% – while Tony Abbott is little changed at 45% (down two) and 47% (up one). Also reflecting Newspoll, this has made little difference to the preferred prime minister result, with Abbott’s lead up only slightly from 49-41 to 49-39.

UPDATE 2: Full details including state and gender breakdowns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,406 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. absolute twaddle

    [swamprat

    A small, somewhat pedantic point but… the LNP are not a ‘radical’ party. I can’t think of a single policy of theirs that can’t be adequately covered by the adjective ‘reactionary’.]

    I understand what you are saying but I consider radical, in this instance, to mean radically changing the ‘status quo’.

    By the status quo, I mean both the consensus that has for 100 years given Australia a reasonably fair allocation of wealth and also an acceptance of the protocols of constitutional monarchy/parliamentary “democracy”… whatever you call it.

    The LNP has been, since 1975, the Party that breaks conventions and always gets away with it.

    I think this system is failing.

    And it is the LNP, ironically, that is destroying it.

    I mean Brandis would have been an illustrative member of the thugish SA in Germany.

    He is an appalling representative of a traditional Westminster Attorney-General.

    But this is widely accepted in Australia as appropriate behaviour!! This is the real problem.

  2. In Japan, they hate the Yanks.

    But completely fine with us Ozzies (their attitude changes completely).

    Why bring in more Yanks in Oz?

  3. Yes Dee … fancy Abetz claiming that.

    And someone mentioned that there was no token comedian on Q and A tonight.

    Well we found him.

  4. Q & bloody A…. Where do they get them.. James Allan boosting neucleer …. Give him a mop, bucket & one way ticket to Fukushima.

    No need to worry about tax payer subsides for renewables in Japan, they will be busy subsidising the clean up for the next 50 Years

    Tony Jones waste of tax payers money.

  5. Everything

    [So we have attacked Adelaide, Canada, the United States….is there anyone who has missed the spray that needs it?]

    You! need it 🙂

  6. We have a lot of people shouting at us that the Earth is about to die of global warming, yet they don’t become vegetarian, they still drive large off-road 4WD vehicles through the leafy streets of Sydney and they poo-poo nuclear which would solve the carbon problem.

    My question: do you really believe this is a global catastrophe or do you just want to use it as a weapon to attack your political enemies?

  7. zoidlord

    So I take it that means nobody outside Australia is allowed to have an opinion on ‘our’ politics?

    I take it you never criticise American domestic policy then?

  8. Everything

    I agree that the anti-nuclear stance of many environmentalists is astounding. And based on about as much thought as anti-vaccers and 9/11 truthers.

  9. I think Burke has had enough of the loudmouth… he just muttered something under his breath when the ignorant bastard interrupted again

  10. Everything

    [We have a lot of people shouting at us that the Earth is about to die of global warming, yet they don’t become vegetarian, they still drive large off-road 4WD vehicles through the leafy streets of Sydney and they poo-poo nuclear which would solve the carbon problem.

    My question: do you really believe this is a global catastrophe or do you just want to use it as a weapon to attack your political enemies?]

    The question you ask is a question you must address to yourself.

    Rightists, like you, do not live in a different universe, although you may believe that.

  11. I’ve never actually seen an environmentalist before (I was wondering if they actually exist) but now if I want to find one I know where to look: driving down a leafy green suburb in their 4wd, chewing on a strip of jerky with anti-nuclear stickers on the windscreen!

  12. The Global Warming debate is totally shallow, just like every important issue.
    Cost to clean up Fukushima estimated @ $250 – $500 BILLION , but the economists see that as a nett gain to GDP
    We are all lost!

  13. [Heather Ridout has always been a class act.]

    BK, I agree, while I am not watching, i have always been surprised how rational and intelligent she is compared with all the barely literate gout-ridded Captains of Industry that normally appear.

  14. Everything 922, you are almost on the money. I would suggest many on the left side of politics were quite proud of being the first to recognise Climate Change and then begin developing policies toward it. And I think many on the right were too quick to jump to oppose it as they mistakenly saw it as political. This escalated to the point that you may be right and the left do use it as a weapon and I blame both sides of politics for it (there really doesnt need to be a left/right to Climate Change).

    However, that all changed when the right decided to swallow their pride (to their credit) and develop policy. Then Abbott came in and now you and everyone who voted for him are bound for Bealzebub Junction with a one way ticket on the fast train.

  15. milenko

    Fukushima was a massive disaster but the likelihood of something similar happening to an Australian nuclear power plant is so low it’s in effect nonexistent.

  16. [This is an account of property dealings in the past decade of one of Australia’s most powerful political figures, Senator for Tasmania, Erich Abetz. It is a factual account of the dealings of Senator Abetz while representing Tasmania in the Senate. I became aware of Senator Abetz’s property dealings during the process of preparing my Petition to the Court of Disputed Returns for I had cause to check the residential address provided by Senator Abetz on his nomination forms for the 1998 and 2004 Senate elections. The Senate requires all Senators to maintain a “Statement of Registrable Interests”. This is kept at the Senate in Parliament House, Canberra. There are questions the Senator should clarify, in the public interest. For example the sale of one property raises questions about the declared profit, compared to an apparent actual profit. Was the full extent of the capital gain declared to the Australian Tax Office? It is vital Australians have complete faith in their elected representatives. Below are the facts regarding some of Senator Abetz’s property dealings over the past decade.
    http://tasmaniantimes.com/index.php/article/abetz-and-channel-highway-land-deals ]

    This came out 3 years ago, but I have no recollection of it.

  17. Puff 848
    SA had heaps of convicts (escapees from the East) and they settled in the wilds of the Tiers, these days the leafy Hills towns of Crafers, Piccadilly and Stirling.

  18. Absolutetwaddle

    Of that we can be sure if they get Ziggy involved !
    Nothing like betting the family jewels on risk so low it’s nonexistent

  19. BK

    I recall there was a time when Ridout was said to offside with the Tories because she was considered too close to the the Labor government. That probably means she has a brain and can think for herself

  20. OK so the risk of accident with nuclear is low, or so they tell us.
    Still would you want to live in Chernobel or Fukishima ?
    Just because things probably may not go wrong doesn’t mean that they won’t.

  21. Absolutetwaddle

    nuclear power is a 1940s energy system.

    We have the opportune to develop natural (sun/wave/wind/polly cycle) energy systems.

    Why do you want to bring that old polluting system back?

  22. [The latest spying revelations and Tony Abbott’s response have once again irritated Indonesia, with Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa taking a barely veiled swipe at the Australian Prime Minister on Monday.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-raw-prawn-marty-natalegawa-takes-swipe-at-tony-abbott-over-prawn-spying-claim-20140217-32wgq.html#ixzz2tZvbR6dV

    It seems like hardly a day goes by without Indonesia getting cranky with us. I thought JBishop had this in hand.

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