BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

With the Newspoll drought presumably awaiting to be broken this weekend, it’s all quiet on the BludgerTrack front, apart from the always dependable Essential Research.

The big story in polling this week was no story at all, with Newspoll still yet to resume after its summer break. This has inevitably excited the attention of conspiracy theorists, but if Newspoll takes the field this weekend it will be acting just as it did after the 2010 election, when its first post-New Year poll was conducted in the first weekend in February. In an off week for the fortnightly Morgan series, that just leaves an Essential Research to add to the mix for BludgerTrack, which accordingly records next to no change on last week. Labor does at least reach a new high of 39.5% on the primary vote, putting it within a hair’s breadth of the Coalition. The seat projection is entirely unchanged, with nothing significant happening on the state breakdowns for voting intention. It should be noted that there is still no data from any of the big live-interview phone pollsters this year, all observations this year coming from Essential, Morgan and ReachTEL.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,133 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

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  1. dtt

    Looking at the figures from the last election, Rudd lost the postals but won the absentees.

    In fact, if you add the postals and absentees together, he had a clear lead (which is why he gained 0.2% between polling night and the final declaration).

    My understanding (meaning I don’t know for sure!) is that there are no absentees for the by election, so there’s a question there — how many of the absentees will have organised themselves to put in a vote?

    So, basically, I agree with you — on the assumption that the absentee vote will be down, therefore the postals will carry more weight.

    But I also agree it won’t give Glasson the numbers he needs to get across the line, and he’s just being churlish and ungracious by not conceding (it’s not like they stop counting once he does; if he conceded and then fell over the line, he’d still end up being the MP).

  2. poroti

    I must admit to an unworthy snigger at the time – the previous election, a customer informed me very loudly in the main street that, as I was the Labor candidate, he would never shop in my place again ‘because of Labor’s attitude to guns’.

    I smiled to him very nicely after Howard made his announcement..

  3. Zoomster

    I’m sure you did a fine Cheshire cat impersonation. It would be interesting to go back and read some of the gun nut claims at the time about what the laws would do to “this once great country” .

  7. VICTORIA – Shopping centres are the next to go. People go there for the airconditioning and to try on stuff, but then buy on-line.

  8. [Stephen Spencer ‏@sspencer_63 11m
    Glasson winning 58% of postals in Griffith. On current trend he’d make up a further 1100 votes, but Butler leads by 2879.]

  9. [Shopping centres are the next to go. People go there for the airconditioning and to try on stuff, but then buy on-line.]

    Specifically, people don’t buy there because the price is higher than elsewhere, and prices are high beacuse the rents that retailers have to pay are exorbitant…

    And the middle class is declining in part because the ratio of wages to home loan repayments keep increasing, even as interest rates have fallen, because land prices are growing so quickly…

    It all comes back to the price of land.

    Answer: Tax land, relax supply, and deflate the land price bubble.

  10. So now the Liberal Party has banned staffers from speaking who is Mexi to pick on, surely i have not been too hard on the boys and girls of 104 🙁

  12. lefty e @2646

    More millions squandered for political gain. We need a Royal Commission into Abbott to see if he’s fit to hold office.

  14. Zoid, of course they’d say that.

    Check this out:

    When the Fed tapers and all the cheap US money currently sloshing about the world heads home (you have no doubt heard mention of a developing EM financial crisis), our foreign-debt exposed banks will have to raise interest rates, and the RBA will be left pushing on a piece of string.

    The outcome for the Aus property market will be “interesting”.

  16. Sure some places are seeing increased property prices but overall i am yet to be convinced we are seeing any property boom.

  18. Re Wind Turbines: their effects on health, if any, would be dwarfed by the health effects flowing from the noise and pollution that is a byproduct of living in a modern city. Even ‘infra sound’ must be everywhere – created by traffic, air conditioning, inside vehicles, construction, leaf blowers, industrial processes….

    Funny – people who believe fantastic claims about wind turbines don’t as a rule accept the science of climate change.

  21. The ‘windfarm syndrome’ stories remind me of those about fluoride, where people have reported ‘being able to taste the fluoride in the water’ before the authorities have actually started adding it.

    In the last big drought up this way, one community had vehemently protested against the idea of fluoridation for years. When their reservoir ran out of water, they were switched to a pipeline from one of the major centres. The water was fluoridated — not one resident noticed.

  22. I wouldn’t be dismissive of concerns about wind turbines, just because they produce a renewable doesn’t guarantee safety, i would rather see a paddock with solar panels than wind turbines.

    Some people do suffer headaches in windy conditions therefore it is quite possible that they are impacted on by wind turbines.

  24. The union haters just can’t help themselves…. 10s of millions of tax payer dollars being wasted on a job designed for police.

    End the waste and mismanagement !!!

  25. Zoomster

    Of course, the issue might well be more to do with the wind than the turbines and for some people it is easier to say its the turbines.

  29. Tim Lyons ‏@Picketer 5m
    s 6A of the Royal Commissions Act doesn’t allow Commission to require evidence or get documents from a person if a matter already in a court

  31. Results of the Dutch study on wind turbines –

    Those who had them on their properties and where being paid, had No problems, no illness.

    Those who didn’t have them and weren’t making money, were ill.

  36. Lynchpin@2636

    YB

    Excuse my ignorance, but what’s a “Rude Boy”?

    Lynchpin, sorry for the delay, A “Rude Boy” is someone who is into Ska, Reggae and a little bit of Punk music. Particularly from the late 70’s early 80’s

  37. Mearsheimer and Walt…once denounced for their warning about the Zionist Lobby in the USA,Mearschimer is a Presidential advisor
    _____________
    Many in the USA now see the damage the jewish lobby has done to the US standing in the islamic workd and fear the warmongering of Netanyahu
    Two academics…Walt… and Mearscheimer .. whose earlier work on The Lobby was denouced as “anti-semitic” have surviced the smears and is now are advising the President on M East policy
    This report from a NY Jewish …but anti-Likud site “Mondoweiss”

    http://mondoweiss.net/2014/02/surviving-mearsheimer-influence.html
    ——————-

  39. BK

    The Head of the Salvation Army broke down and cried today at the RC.

    He issued an apology and was clearly distressed.

    You may catch it on the news tonight.

  42. from smh earlier link:
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets-live/markets-live-banks-lead-way-again-20140210-32ao3.html

    “4:09pm: Billionaire parliamentarian Clive Palmer said the economy urgently needs a $6 billion-a-month stimulus boost on par with the one delivered in the US by the Federal Reserve’s controversial $US85 billion bond-buying program.”

    “Mr Palmer said he was opposed to European-style “austerity” and said it was vital more money was injected into the economy. “At the moment it’s at rock bottom.””

    Don’t expect PUP support after senate change over.

  43. Steve777@2688

    “Rude Boys” were originally Jamaican street hooligans.

    Originally, in the same way that skinheads were originally street hooligans from Jamaica, but there was a Ska revival that came out of the UK in the late 70’s/Early 80’s with the advent of the 2-Tone movement. That’s what I was right into as a young tacker.

  45. Libertarian Unionist 2664

    Check out the Prosper Australia site, formerly the “Henry George League”. It advocates “Replacing all existing taxes with a charge on the value of land and natural resources” – ie land and resources being owned by the Government and leased/rented to users. That way there is Zero Capital Appreciation to be made by happening to be in the right place at the right time.

    Also check out affordable housing in Singapore.

    There are many in our society who will never get the chance to own their own home so the ideas make a lot of sense.

    http://www.prosper.org.au

  46. Diogenes
    Posted Monday, February 10, 2014 at 4:39 pm | PERMALINK
    [I don’t really care if Corby gets $3M from Channel 7.]

    I don’t care.

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