BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

With the Newspoll drought presumably awaiting to be broken this weekend, it’s all quiet on the BludgerTrack front, apart from the always dependable Essential Research.

The big story in polling this week was no story at all, with Newspoll still yet to resume after its summer break. This has inevitably excited the attention of conspiracy theorists, but if Newspoll takes the field this weekend it will be acting just as it did after the 2010 election, when its first post-New Year poll was conducted in the first weekend in February. In an off week for the fortnightly Morgan series, that just leaves an Essential Research to add to the mix for BludgerTrack, which accordingly records next to no change on last week. Labor does at least reach a new high of 39.5% on the primary vote, putting it within a hair’s breadth of the Coalition. The seat projection is entirely unchanged, with nothing significant happening on the state breakdowns for voting intention. It should be noted that there is still no data from any of the big live-interview phone pollsters this year, all observations this year coming from Essential, Morgan and ReachTEL.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,133 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

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  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Murdoch getting a bit of his own medicine.
    http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/celebrity/blue-eyes-which-i-love-wendi-dengs-love-note-for-tony-blair-published-20140206-3229q.html
    Not getting any better for the Cronulla Sharks.
    http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/league-news/third-player-joins-lawsuit-against-sharks-20140205-3223i.html
    Now the world is against them.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/un-condemns-vatican-over-child-sex-abuse-20140205-3222k.html
    And there is a distinct stench about this!
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/05/queensland-police-salvos-abuse-1970s-royal-commission
    Unless revenue is addressed this mob is really going to hurt this country.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbotts-audit-razor-gang-look-to-make-savage-cuts-20140205-321sn.html
    The Australian Industry Group is concerned about this also.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/05/business-group-warns-commission-of-audit-against-radical-budget-changes
    A good examination of carbon emissions of late. The Senate Committee examination of Direct Action will be an interesting thing to watch.
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/big-fall-in-electricity-sector-emissions-since-carbon-tax-20140205-320a6.html
    Mark Kenny posits that the Abbott government is untested.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/coalition-ship-needs-more-than-energy-to-stay-afloat-20140205-321gt.html
    Hmm. No mention of the family in this article.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/taxpayers-foot-bill-to-end-lease-on-prime-ministers-luxury-home-20140205-321su.html
    How are those 2 million extra jobs looking, Tone?
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/feb/05/solar-industry-to-launch-marginal-seats-campaign-to-save-renewables-target

  4. Section 2 . . .

    Now, how will the government act on this?
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/feb/05/spc-ardmona-hurt-dumping-cheap-italian-tomatoes-commission
    John Spooner has Abbott burning his hands.

    Alan Moir rolls out the little Barnaby attack dog.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    Cathy Wilcox – moving things right along with infrastructure.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    David Pope gives us a most sinister undertaker, Erica Betz.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Ron Tandberg on the state of the Victorian lower house.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    David Rowe on the conversion of St Paul Howes. Look at the angels.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  5. Thanks William

    Thr conspiracy theories re Newspoll are nonsense, of course.

    I wonder how things will look after we start to get some results from some major pollsters. When I talk to mainstream voters (ie, people who don’t share the prevailing PB mindset that all Labor needs to do is ditch the Right faction and it would win every election forever) they seem a bit reluctant to mark down the Libs too heavily.

    Thr prevailing attitude seems to be: “We had to give them a go, because Labor was such a mess, but gee they seem to be all over the shop. But surely they can’t be as bad as they look so far: it’s got to improve.”

    But will it improve? I’m struggling to see how. Governments largely have to govern according to thr circumstances they find themselves in: circumstances which, right now, look fairly mediocre at best. They don’t seem set to benefit as Howard did from a massive surge in demand from China. And their communication skills are not good enough to milk such any such event in the way Howard did.

    As I tried to explain a couple of days back (and predictably got howled down, but I’m beastly careless about that), they aren’t governing all that badly. Their problem is their image, but it’s a big problem: they are coming across as a divided, somewhat clueless bunch. Something that I suspected would be the case has proven to be true: the likes of Abbott and Hockey do seem to seriously believe that the economy got better under the Howard Government because the Libs were better economic managers. They don’t seem to appreciate that Howard was basically a brilliant opportunist who could create simple messages and then flog them

    Selling a Government’s messages is hard work. I am seeing a tendency to take lazy communications options. Claiming last week that the solutions to SPC’s problems were for a rich multinational to open its wallet while simultaneously tearing up its enterprise agreement was a very lazy option. And it is coming back to bite them on thr bum big time.

    They aren’t even doing a good job of blaming the former government for the current budgetary situation. Part of the problem must be that they will be getting lots of advice from busines, Treasury economists, etc that a soft budget is advisable. That’s going to be a harder sell than a horror budget. I have no idea what we’ll eventually see: they’re not talking to the public about it very much.

    So, as I keep saying, the government’s immediate, urgent problem is its communications strategy. If I were advising them, I’d tell them that the first thing they should do is put the cone of silence on the scrap heap. I would then start to develop one or two positive narratives that don’t come out of the IPA songbook.

    Here’s a suggestion: educating a skilled workforce for the future. Put the culture warrior Kevin Donnelly back in the box and get a bunch of genuine industry leaders together (not bleeding heart financiers like Gonski). How do we keep young people who are not so academically gifted off the dole queue and get them to become skilled tradies, nurses, etc. Let’s blame the unions and State Labor governments for much of the problems: antiquated apprenticeship systems, insufficient streaming in schools, etc. Let’s get the private sector far more involved in vocational education.

    Here’s another idea: a new agricultural policy for the 21st century. If we want to be the producer of high quality food to Asia, let’s develop a strategy to do it. Not rubbish about more dams in northern Australia: why don’t we start trying to move more product our of places like the Goulburn Valley.

    And how about… …oh, why bother. They don’t seem to get it at the moment.

  7. meher baba

    They are trying to take us back to the 70’s, not the 70’s we had but the 70’s the right wanted, but Fraser being a little saner, stopped them from having.

  9. And from the Land of the Free –

    Bill Nye, the Science Guy had a long debate with Ken Ham the creationist. Here is the story and the video.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/02/05/bill-nye-makes-ham-sandwich-out-of-creationism-whole-cloth/
    Elizabeth Warren is a standout Senator.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/02/05/actually-want-eat-fuggetaboutit/
    MUST SEE! Great operatic flash mob in an Italian supermarket.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/02/04/overnight-italian-grocery-meets-world-opera/
    Policing New York Style.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/02/nyc-mom-sues-after-cop-fractures-her-10
    It’s a good start.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/02/cvs-will-stop-selling-tobacco-products
    Turtle Man Mitch McConnell’s hold on his seat looks to be tenuous.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/02/05/1275276/-Another-day-another-sign-that-Mitch-McConnell-is-in-trouble
    Anchorwoman destroys those outraging over the multilingual CocaCola ad.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017173943
    Paul Begala describes FoxNews as “a comedy channel that pretends to be news”.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017173883
    Remember Sandra Fluke?
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/05/sandra-fluke-state-senate_n_4729805.html

  10. Meher

    I only partly agree with you.

    Yes I think you have described public sentiment well – we had to give them a go etc

    Now I am not so sure I agree with you about not governing badly. Now I am not a partisan hack that dumps on the Libs just because they are Libs. Credit is due when deserved.

    The following are stuff ups – not just communication errors
    1. The whole Indonesia affair, especially the non apology and then the boat incursions. This is more than a stuff up. It is pushing Australian domestic affair ahead of international relations, with no seeming effort to make the right noises to restore relations. It is an Australian focussed, almost 1930s imperialist position that just is out of whack with the real world. It has and will continue to damage us and is a symptom of being out of depth on international issues

    2. We probably have mis-stepped on China but will reserve judgement for a while

    3. Barrier Reef affair. This seems a foolish decision with little gain that creates a lot of ill will. This is not good government. The negatives outweigh the positives economically I think.

    4. The industry assistance stuff is all over the shop and reeks of a government that is just not sure of its own position. There is no consistency in the approach. The SPC decision seems to have elements of vindictiveness and this is the sort of thing the public notes and hates. Supporting industries in Tasmania but not NSW and SA is just plain bad government.

  11. meher

    still intrigued by what you mean by ‘not governing that badly.”

    Yes, the wheels are still turning – but they do that even when there’s no government in place at all.

    In every other way, their governance is appalling.

    There’s no consistency, major companies are closing their doors, they’ve failed to get any major item of legislation through, there’s a stack of broken promises, and a lot of “Oh, I’ve just thought of this, isn’t it a good idea?” style announcements.

    Governing, surely, means that you set out some kind of agenda – even if it’s very broad brush – and work to deliver it.

  13. meher

    [educating a skilled workforce for the future.]

    Indeed.

    [How do we keep young people who are not so academically gifted off the dole queue and get them to become skilled tradies, nurses, etc. Let’s blame the unions and State Labor governments for much of the problems: antiquated apprenticeship systems, ]

    Apprenticeships aren’t antiquated. They’ve changed a lot over the last couple of decades.

    If you want the less academically gifted to find work, modern apprenticeships are a good path – students ease into them gradually, doing a mix of work at school and work placements to begin with, then starting a proper apprenticeship whilst completing their schooling.

    Labor’s emphasis on trade centres in schools was largely to enhance this.

    Students who aren’t academically gifted need hands on work. It’s how they learn. On the other hand, we can’t afford to send students out into the workforce with only a Year 10 education. Modern apprenticeships give students the best of both worlds.

    [..insufficient streaming in schools, etc.]

    If apprenticeships are antiquated, streaming in schools is even more so.

    There’s a place for it – but in situations where we’re dealing with about 1% of the school population (at either end).

    Most students benefit from working in mixed ability classrooms.

    [Let’s get the private sector far more involved in vocational education. ]

    Yes, but they are involved at the moment. For example, my sister works exclusively with VCAL students (Victoria’s Voc Ed). She delivers a program in tandem with the town’s business leaders, who actively supervise the student program.

  15. [Balance of power independent Geoff Shaw is tentatively backing Denis Napthine to remain Premier – for now – but has put the government on notice he will not guaranteeing its legislative agenda.
    The warning came as Dr Napthine insisted he was ”calling the shots” and would not be beholden to Mr Shaw, who played a pivotal role in the demise of Ted Baillieu as premier and Ken Smith as speaker after declaring a lack of confidence in both men.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/independent-geoff-shaw-backs-denis-napthine-to-remain-premier-20140205-321v4.html#ixzz2sU1sEz2o

  16. Morning all. Thanks for the links BK. i had mercifully forotten about that nutter Ken Ham. Poor Kentucky.

    MB
    [As I tried to explain a couple of days back (and predictably got howled down, but I’m beastly careless about that), they aren’t governing all that badly.]
    I would not regard myself as an ideological cherr squad for Labor, yet I think you are being very generous to the Abbott government. They are rubbish. You haven’t mentioned the boats or their trashing of our relationship with our nearest neighbour, that even Howard realised was important. But yes, there have been many domestic policy failures already.

    As others have said tax revenue is the key. No democratic government has much success lowering wages without creating a recession. So this talk is futile. They must improve skills, yet are cutting training budgets. They talk about no protection, yet pork barrel factories in Tasmania. Thre is no evidence of any coherent strategy, other than avoiding media questions.

    I think there is a real threat of a recession, if they follow through on the rhetoric in their next budget.

    Have a good day all.

  18. Zoom 13

    +1. The best performing education systems stream least. The vocational training should follow a good basic education, given in common to all.

  19. A scathing attack on the ignorance ruling the Productivity Commission. Seems a shame that Labor also relied on their “wisdom”.

    [The Productivity Commission report Australia’s Automotive Manufacturing Industry has a lot in common with Carroll’s poem, but it probably won’t be fascinating people 140 years from now. It seems to be written in grammatically correct English but it belongs to a totally imaginary universe.

    In the imaginary universe, the Productivity Commission prognosticates there is no such thing as unemployment or idle capital: in their view, once the closure of the automotive industry is complete, the workers affected will find new, better-paying jobs and the capital released by the closure will be put to more productive uses. Down here in reality we know no more than a third of the workers made redundant by the end of the industry will find equally good or better-paying jobs and a third will never work again.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/auto-report-is-a-fantasy-tale-with-a-tragic-twist-20140205-321mo.html#ixzz2sU5wf7Mg

  20. Deblonay,

    I can’t comment on how intelligent a decision it may have been to move to Colac. It was mooted when I was about 12. Most of the income came from my mum, anyway, so it may not have had that great an impact on our situation even if it wasn’t. I do know Rayners’ have an orchard in Colac, though.

    The Yarra Valley can’t really be classed as a grower of anything specific, really, if it can grow there, it’s grown. There are large sprout farms, many berry farms, stone-fruit orchards, there’s a decent sized citrus farm in Gruyere, even. Large, medium and small wineries. The area around Wandin (formerly Wandin Yallock before it was divided into East and North for reasons I can’t quite figure), however, used to be known as the “Cherry Bowl of Victoria”. Farms were divided between family as generations past, who have then moved into the suburbs. Wandin and Coldstream have also been a bit more “suburbanised” than other towns.

    Many farms and orchards provide tourism as well, giving tours and allowing “u-pick”, as well as “Shed Fest” and “Grape Grazing” for the wineries (we always got our road graded before those festivals, so we weren’t going to complain).

  21. Is it time for Labor to distance itself more clearly from union leaders?

    [Tony Abbott must feel pretty lucky. He wins a leadership ballot at the end of 2009 in which he initially had no intention of even nominating, and just over a term later is Prime Minister.

    Australia promptly wins the Ashes in a 5-0 clean sweep. Then, having ducked serious industrial relations reform for fear of sparking a difficult war with the unions post-WorkChoices, the nation’s most powerful union leader offers to help him do just that.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/pm-sits-pretty-as-the-seesaw-tilts-yet-again-20140205-321vr.html#ixzz2sU8Dt4sX

  22. Lizzie

    [Is it time for Labor to distance itself more clearly from union leaders?

    Tony Abbott must feel pretty lucky. He wins a leadership ballot at the end of 2009 in which he initially had no intention of even nominating, and just over a term later is Prime Minister.

    Australia promptly wins the Ashes in a 5-0 clean sweep. Then, having ducked serious industrial relations reform for fear of sparking a difficult war with the unions post-WorkChoices, the nation’s most powerful union leader offers to help him do just that.]

    You could argue that this move by Paul Howes is one way of doing this…..

  23. bugler

    Maybe they changed Wandin Yallock because it was too similar to Woori Yallock. I wouldn’t know, but it has seemed strange, since I came to live in the Valley, that Wandin North is the Wandin on the Warby Hwy, and Wandin East is almost invisible. Why did they bother!!

    And we have a running family joke about all the different roads that lead to Beenak, which no longer exists. It must have been an important timber/mine, perhaps, in the past.

  25. lizzie

    Not sure which journo it was, but Paul Howes was asked at the NPC yesterday whether he had spoken to Shorten before proceeding with his address. Howes basically responded no.

  26. meher baba @ 5: One way in which the government seems to me to be failing badly is that it is proving, in the words of Shane Stone, to be “mean and tricky”. Most Australians are not greatly engaged in politics, and therefore almost by definition are non-ideological. They like governments which look for sensible win-win solutions.

    The problem with this government is the growing sense that it is more interested, when dealing with a problem, in ensuring that there are obvious losers. (On this, it’s useful to hold your nose and look at Senator Bernardi’s very first posting on his blog, https://www.corybernardi.com/break-blog/, where he lauds the idea that there have to be losers if the market is to work.) You get the sense that they will also go for a win-lose rather than win-win approach.

    And a lot of it is petty, only about poking the other side in the eye. Most voters don’t like this at all.

  27. [Treasurer Troy Buswell has begun laying the groundwork for a divisive State Budget, flagging further cuts to WA’s ambitious capital investment program, privatisation of assets and services and more public sector redundancies.

    Mr Buswell said ratings agency Standard & Poor’s were “probably right” in September when it observed the Government lacked the political will for hard reform, but he insisted a fresh approach was under way.]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/a/21289667/buswell-tips-more-big-cuts/

    “Fresh approach”? Buswell is following the standard Liberal govt MO: halt investment in building for the future, privatise state assets, and cut government services.

    What exactly is fresh and new about all that?

  29. Well, one thing this government is very good at is excuses.

    Nothing is ever their fault – it’s the incompetence of the Navy, the rapacity of workers, Labor, the way the winds blowing…

    [Speak to anyone on the government side and they admit to having reached a state of utter exhaustion by the end of last year, citing three years of constant campaigning and the under-appreciated enormity of setting up a new administration.]

    Cough. Not only don’t I recall the newly elected Rudd government making excuses of this nature, I don’t remember them having to (nor do I think the media would have dealt so mildly with it if they had).

    The three years of constant campaigning (their choice) should have also allowed for three years of anticipating being in government. They kept telling us they had a wealth of experienced people and were ready to take over the reins at any moment.

    And, of course, if the leadership team had just let MPs get on with the job of staffing their offices, instead of insisting on vetting applicants for the ideological purity, they might have had a bit more time to focus on actually running the country.

    [Last week’s refusal to stump up a relatively modest $25 million in taxpayer assistance for SPC Ardmona to protect the Shepparton cannery, confirmed the new toughened approach.

    The message, as Hockey has since explained, is that the era of corporate hand-outs is over, and the era of self-reliance is at hand.]

    But apparently we’ll ignore the government stumping up money for Cadbury’s and Huon Aquaculture.

    [Hockey has emerged as the hard man and the clear stand-out minister in the government..]

    which gives us some idea of its calibre.

    [Hockey must gauge how to wind in public spending without making the economic situation worse.

    This will require deftness and subtlety..]

    We’re all doomed.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/coalition-ship-needs-more-than-energy-to-stay-afloat-20140205-321gt.html#ixzz2sUDYrbaD

  30. zoomster

    Of course, not forgetting it is also the fault of the ABC, but like a good little servant, it has rolled over for its master. Sigh…………..

  32. zoomster @ 29: It’s all very well for the commentators to talk about “the under-appreciated enormity of setting up a new administration”, but if the government makes it unnecessarily hard for itself it’s difficult to sympathise.

    Exhibit No. 1: The abolition of AusAID on day 1. Done with no consultation with either AusAID or DFAT, driven (I’m told) by an ex-IPA person of no special distinction who had managed to get into Ms Bishop’s ear, and replete with administrative complexities and unanticipated consequences. Even if one accepts to that a case might be made for the change in question, to do it in the way it was done was just plain dumb.

  33. zoomster @ 29: One more thing, I don’t agree the government is good at excuses. To meet that description, excuses have to be compelling, and not offered all the time. They are carrying one like the mewling brat character in Seven Little Australians who was always saying “‘Twasn’t me, ‘Twasn’t my fault”.

  34. I am told, This is the place younger people get their info

    [The ABC has come in for some criticism recently from the Government with the Prime Minister calling them unpatriotic. The ABC reported on leaks that showed Australia bugged the phones of Indonesia’s President and his wife, and more recently reported claims from asylum seekers that they’d been burnt by navy personnel.]

    http://www.vice.com/en_au/read/the-abc-has-pissed-off-tony-abbott-and-will-be-destroyed

  35. [More damaging, the right decision on SPC has been undermined by a sloppy sales job. Making the right decision is not enough. It has to be for the right reasons, fully and accurately explained to people and participants.

    Sharman Stone, the local Liberal member, has been tempted to take her margin of 19.6 per cent, resign from the Liberal Party tomorrow and sit as an independent. If she thought it would buy leverage, she would do it.

    Instead, she has undercut Abbott, who brought it on himself partly by overstating the impact of the union award on SPC’s difficulties. Hearing the cabinet decision first from a journalist only blackened Stone’s mood.

    Stone has been loud and abusive. She will not stop and they can’t make her. She is not alone in her disquiet about Abbott’s drying-out. “You can be pure and you can also be dead,” one cabinet minister observed a few days ago.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/lessons-in-leaders-rise-and-fall/story-fnahw9xv-1226818972199#

    Niki Savva for whatever that is worth.

  38. vic

    not really – I didn’t listen to the speech. But those who did all seem to report (well, apart from the msm) that he spoke well and sensibly.

    We get back to media portrayal. If they want to, the media can make the most pathetic speech look good (how often have we seen Abbott make a complete ass of himself in Question Time, only to have a five second grab on the news which made him look perfectly reasonable) and make the best speech look pathetic (by focussing on a facial twitch, a phrase out of context, or ignoring the speech altogether and focussing on something happening in the audience..)

    There’ve been people here acting as if 1. Howes somehow invaded the Press Council and forced them to let him make a speech; and 2. Howes could have crafted what he said in a way that wouldn’t allow the media to distort it.

    1. is, of course, nonsense. Howes would have recieved the equivalent of a nicely engraved invitation with curly writing from the PC asking him to speak. Part of his job requires him to grasp such opportunities. (You don’t get an educated media if no one ever talks to them).

    2. is also nonsense. It is impossible to craft a speech so that not one phrase can be misreported.

    Whole speeches of Julia Gillard’s were subject to this treatment – let’s ignore what she actually said but concentrate on how many times she used a particular phrase, or let’s focus on how she was dressed, or the guy in the koala suit — bonus points being given, of course, if there was a phrase or a sentence which she actually spoke which could be portrayed as dodgy.

    (Interestingly, her key speech on climate change, delivered during the 2010 election, appears to have vanished completely. Plenty of articles anticipating what the speech would be about — I can’t find one post-delivery, let alone a transcript of the speech itself).

    As for Paul Howes, I really don’t see him as anything special one way or another. He’s pretty bland, really.

    But of course, for certain hammers he is a nail.

  40. but but the coalition, with all those foss…er veterans from the Howard era were ready to govern from day one right?!!
    Mark Kenny really shits me as a columnist.
    Isn’t he the odious Chris’s brother? Figures.

  42. Henry

    Agree with you. Kenny omits to mention that the majority of cabinet are former ministers in the Howard govt. As usual, he is reporting out of his backside

  43. [Stone has been loud and abusive. ]

    I wonder if Savva has any time for any Libs, if the carefully phrased, clearly enunciated Stone is in her opinion “loud and abusive”.

  46. [ lizzie
    Posted Thursday, February 6, 2014 at 8:23 am | Permalink

    Is it time for Labor to distance itself more clearly from union leaders? ]

    Certainly from Howes.

    The sooner the better and the greater the distance the better.

  49. Gotta love Savva–

    [Abbott was doing his job, and appeared to have spent his break thinking about it. Since the political year resumed, he has shown he is beginning to get the hang of it. Not completely, not always, but certainly better than before.

    His speech in Davos set out an economic narrative for himself and the world. It succinctly, if sketchily, set out challenges and remedies. Detail will have to come later.]

    No, his speech in Davos was a series of cliches. Detail will not come later, because that’s all he has.

    “Labor bad, me good,” is not an economic narrative (and yes, I did read the speech…)

    [As Governor-General, Quentin Bryce was always going to be a hard act to follow, but if anyone can do it, his man Peter Cosgrove can.]

    Er, the GG is not meant to be the Prime Minister’s ‘man’. You damn Cosgrove right there by even suggesting he could be.

    [However, we are talking about Abbott, who will never be the PM from central casting, 100 per cent well-behaved, 100 per cent of the time. The inner larrikin will break through occasionally, as he must, lest the contents explode like a malfunctioning pressure-cooker.]

    Right. So he’s a fake as well as a flake. (Where’s the ‘Real Tony’?)

    [The Abbott of five months ago promised $16 million to one profitable multinational, Cadbury. The Abbott of last week refused $25m to another, SPC Ardmona, owned by Coca-Cola Amatil.]

    And the Abbott of last week also gave money to an aquaculture business in Tasmania, to do much the same sort of upgrades SPC are proposing.

    [Cracking down on corporate welfare should give the government ammunition to tackle middle-class welfare, although with friends such as Kevin Andrews handing out $20m for marriage counselling, the moral and economic messages get mixed.]

    Kevin Andrews is not a ‘friend’ (apparently letting friends do what they want to is perfectly acceptable in a government). He is a Minister in the Abbott government.

    Savva started this article saying that politicians are responsible for the actions of their staffers (aimed at Gillard, of course). In that case, Prime Ministers are clearly responsible for the actions of their Ministers.

    [More damaging, the right decision on SPC has been undermined by a sloppy sales job. Making the right decision is not enough. It has to be for the right reasons, fully and accurately explained to people and participants.]

    Which raises the interesting question of why, if the SPC decision was made for the right reasons, those aren’t the reasons trotted out by the government.

    It’s quite possible that Savva has misunderstood what’s happening – and that the government is actually putting its real case for closing SPC forward, not the case Savva thinks they should be.

    After all, if the government had a sound, consistent position which led to their decision not to give SPC the money, (i) it wouldn’t have taken a 5 hour discussion in Cabinet to make the decision; (ii) there wouldn’t be strong suggestions that the majority of Cabinet didn’t support it; (iii) the decision wouldn’t have been a surprise to anyone; (iv) their decisions on Cadbury, Holden, Huon aquaculture, etc would all fit into the same narrative and (v) they’d have no trouble selling it — it might still be unpopular, but people would at least follow the reasoning.

    [Instead, she has undercut Abbott, who brought it on himself partly by overstating the impact of the union award on SPC’s difficulties. Hearing the cabinet decision first from a journalist only blackened Stone’s mood.

    Stone has been loud and abusive. She will not stop and they can’t make her. ]

    A good leader would have handled this so that none of that happened. Stone wouldn’t be able to undercut a leader who was doing his job properly. And a leader who was doing his job would have stopped Stone days ago, one way or another.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/lessons-in-leaders-rise-and-fall/story-fnahw9xv-1226818972199#

  50. Good Morning

    Regarding Paul Howes. He could indeed be preparing the ground for the inevitable changes to the Labor party.

    In both his speech and on 7:30 he stated he wants the politicians kept out of it.

    I see him speaking about this in long term terms not the short term political cycle. As such a twelve hour kerfuffle to put the ideas on record is worth it.

    His bloodsport comment was dead on the money.

    His comments that he was clear on in his speech are broad generalisations aimed at business leaders and unions. NOT politicians.

    Abbott leaping on the comments like others out of context just shows the bloodsport continues as those industrial warriors miss the point entirely.

    It gave Bill Shorten the opportunity this morning to say yes we want peace, but we don’t live in fantasy land we know Abbott’s agenda.

    So overall its win win for progressives as the public will see the “war” is coming from the right.

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