Essential Research: 50-50

Still no sign of Newspoll, but the ever-reliable Essential Research still has a two-party deadlock, and offers responses on Peter Cosgrove, unions, parental leave and intolerance.

Essential Research has two-party preferred at 50-50, with both major parties up on the primary vote: the Coalition by a point to 43%, Labor by two to 38%. The Greens are down a point to 8%, the Palmer United Party down one to 3% and others down to two to 7%. Also covered:

• Only 4% rate Peter Cosgrove “not a good choice” for Governor-General, with 30%, 34% and 11% respectively rating the choice excellent, good and acceptable.

• Forty-three per cent are happy for the Governor-General to be appointed by the government, with 40% favouring direct election.

• Sixty-one per cent think unions “important for Australian working people today”, compared with only 30% who think them not important, with 45% thinking workers would be better off if unions were stronger compared with 27% for worse off.

• In response to a question which first explains the specifics of the government’s policy, including the $150,000 ceiling and 1.5% levy, only 23% favoured the government scheme over 36% for the current policy and 32% for neither.

• There are also questions on the prevalence on various forms of intolerance, which you can read about in the report.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

875 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

Comments Page 18 of 18
1 17 18
  1. Howes is a Quisling
    An old WW2 word to describe traitors applies to Howes,for just as the presure mounts on Abbott he will quote Howes in the debate

    Thetalk-backs ran hot today over talk of cuts in award poayments and
    penalties…now Howes comes to the aid of Abbott
    what a bastard !!

    What sort of Labor Man is he ???
    The answer is …a right-wing NSW union leader…they don’t come much worse than that

  2. Fess I agree his timing was pretty ordinary but perhaps he has had this address planned for some time and therefore he was as much a victim of timing as he was guilty of timing.

  3. Galaxy Poll last time for South Australia had 54/46, but Holden effects (and now SPC) will effect the state.

    And only a 7% point difference in regards to better economic plans.

  4. COAG issues its time-honoured dingo howl at the moon.

    [ The state and federal governments have been urged to embark on a new five-year plan to harmonise business and industry regulation.

    The COAG Reform Council made the call on Thursday, releasing its final report to the Council of Australian Governments on the success of the “seamless national economy” program over the past five years.]

    Every COAG for longer than I’ve been alive has been calling for ‘a new reform agenda’, with ‘seamless’ integration between business and industry regulation.

    Clearly we need more polling for the press gallery to wrap itself around. This recycled reform nonsense from yesteryear is just crap.

  5. [Howes made some good points]

    Nothing at all to do with not towing the Labor line, his comments are moronic in the contest of an Abbott Government who hates unions, hates workers and hates their getting paid a decent wage. Abbott has already declared war, and in that context Howes can only be an idiot or a surrender to Abbott.

    Reasonable sensible non confrontational outcomes, dare I say an accord mark II would work with a good sensible PM, Abbott is a moron and Howard wasn’t good enough to have gone with one either.

  6. [ Abbott is a moron and Howard wasn’t good enough to have gone with one either.]

    remember Reith and the waterfront. The unions didn’t declare these wars, Howard and Abbott did. they are Hitler in this context just not as intelligent, reasonable or well loved as he was.

  7. [Wasn’t SA Labor returned within a hair’s breath last time? It’s seemed to me for a while now that the govt will change hands in SA, esp since the Liberals dumped Redmond.

    I’m not getting this seeming expectation that Weatherill’s govt will be returned, if only it weren’t for X this and Y that from the factional numpties.]

    Well the odds have always favoured a Liberal win in March, just how much the balance of probability favoured them is what has oscillated. Until December last year, I’d have given the Liberals a 75% chance of winning at most. Then, after the Holden announcement, I’d have reeled that number right into almost being 50-50 (with the Libs having the slight edge), now it’s blown out in the Libs’ favour.

    The state government now obviously seems terminal, which is a dangerous territory to be in, as every attack and accusation sticks to a dying government. Also, the media love to attack a dying government too (it makes for interesting reporting when you can break another “scandal” or “blunder” and the public is behind you.) There aren’t any “baseball bats” as of yet but, with 37 days to go, there’s still time for the momentum to roll that way and turn a reasonable Liberal win in a massive one (the difference between one and two terms IMO).

    Attack ads aside, the politicians themselves are playing it extremely cautious. Steven Marshall is running the most innocuous campaign ever. He is doing nothing more than posing for photo ops and his shadow ministry is staying away from the spotlight. They know to shut up now and they’ll get over the line. Expect minimal policies from the Liberals this time.

  8. [Other than VIC none of those disposed of, or to be disposed of, Labor governments should be surprised that they were disposed of. There were some pretty ordinary performances in those given their marching orders.]

    I’d go as far to say that the Victorian one wasn’t that big of a surprise either. The Vic ALP ran a very lazy campaign and paid for it. It didn’t help that I had friends in the Vic ALP who were basically gloating that Victoria won’t flip because of how “progressive” Victoria is – and they’re still using that rationale now to already claim victory this November. While they’re favourites to win that election, I caution against allowing such generalisations to lead to complacency.

  9. [Liberals don’t do minimal policies imho.]

    I meant you are not going to hear many policy announcements from them.

    The only ones that have stuck out (besides the vague “I’m going to wave my magic business wand and the economy is going to grow” statements) have been promises to build small, local things to buy votes in marginals (in particular, Adelaide, where the Lib MP is struggling, despite the overall swing to the Libs everywhere else.)

  10. 864

    The Coalition certainly ran the est campaign of the 2010 Victorian Election. They seemed to get the issues, like public transport. It has since emerged that they do not get public transport and instead are trying to ramrod the East-West Link through. They also have been a bit of a mess with leadership and Shaw. I think the Coalition will loose but not in a landslide. I also think that, if the Coalition do get the East-West Link contract signed before the state election (likely), the Greens will take inner-city seats off the ALP because the ALP say they won`t cancel the contract.

  11. [With what money and what jobs?

    Bit late I suspect, sad to say.]

    I don’t know. I am not advocating their policies.

    And there are plenty of avenues for economic growth in SA. The long-term outlook is not that bleak (it was much bleaker in 2002, when the ALP came into power.)

  12. I didn’t say the current economic position of the state was good. I just said the long-term outlook is not that bleak. There are plenty of avenues of investment, both from government and the private sector.

    You want to talk bleak, go back to 2002. Everybody was leaving the state in droves and Adelaide was only good as a nice quiet place for the grandparents to retire to. The city was dead. Shops were always closed and there was no real drive to grow. It was on track to oblivion and it was considered a joke to invest any money in the city – and don’t even think about being on “must visit” lists of international tourist publications.

    So, yes, the outlook is much better now than it was back then. Will there be short-term pain? Yes. But in the long term, I believe the state will bounce back harder and stronger. Providing the state government doesn’t do something incredibly myopic and stupid that scares people away or completely stunts growth.

    Anyway, that’s my 2 cents. Time for me to go to bed because it’s 1:30am and I am very tired.

  13. @Carey/870

    If you don’t want to talk about bleak, then don’t on about how things are better than it was (when for the most part) they are not.

    Simple fact is the discussions now and previously are effecting Australia economy, including trash talking by the liberals.

  14. Great resource there otiose. I enjoy perusing that each morning; impressive.

    I hope it is now open slather for labor mp’s to call Abbott a liar. Get the meme happening and hammer him.
    If he squeals they can just refer to Sharman Stone’s comments wrrt “we are merely agreeing with the member for Goulburn” (or whatever her electorate is called).

Comments Page 18 of 18
1 17 18

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *