Essential Research: 50-50

Still no sign of Newspoll, but the ever-reliable Essential Research still has a two-party deadlock, and offers responses on Peter Cosgrove, unions, parental leave and intolerance.

Essential Research has two-party preferred at 50-50, with both major parties up on the primary vote: the Coalition by a point to 43%, Labor by two to 38%. The Greens are down a point to 8%, the Palmer United Party down one to 3% and others down to two to 7%. Also covered:

• Only 4% rate Peter Cosgrove “not a good choice” for Governor-General, with 30%, 34% and 11% respectively rating the choice excellent, good and acceptable.

• Forty-three per cent are happy for the Governor-General to be appointed by the government, with 40% favouring direct election.

• Sixty-one per cent think unions “important for Australian working people today”, compared with only 30% who think them not important, with 45% thinking workers would be better off if unions were stronger compared with 27% for worse off.

• In response to a question which first explains the specifics of the government’s policy, including the $150,000 ceiling and 1.5% levy, only 23% favoured the government scheme over 36% for the current policy and 32% for neither.

• There are also questions on the prevalence on various forms of intolerance, which you can read about in the report.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

875 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  1. Zoomster/Zoidlord
    It is a situation where the heart rules the head and government counselling will have only marginal effect.
    and yes even as the business fails there is often no insight its the “stupid people of Port Macquarie” ot the guv’ment who caused the business to fail.

  2. [100,000 Australians [roughly] lost their jobs when the GFC hit.]
    And a disproportionate number of those were from the mining industry which also is largely responsible for much of the undue wages increase in certain trades and skill sets.

  3. Lucky enough to visit a wheat farm in Kukerin a few years ago.

    The Harvesters were incredible.

    Each ‘paddock’ is programmed into the harvester with gps co-ordinates.

    The farmer just has to press a button and he sits in the seat while the harvester autonomously and precisely harvests the paddock using GPS and linear programming maths to get the crop in the most efficient way possible.

  4. I will add, wine has always been big in NE Vic. Rutherglen produces some of the best fortifieds; Brown Brothers has been around forever.

    The King Valley is another area, which – post tobacco – has established itself as a wine centre.

  5. [Sharman Stone
    @BriggsJamie hello Jamie, you do know that Labor also announced a $25 mil Federal Grant to support #SPCA before the change of government?]

  6. Diogs

    Howes is like the Greens, they have a lot in common – nothing but a nuisance and a hindrance.

    He should do everyone a favour, go get a different job and stay away from the ALP.

  7. I didn’t realise Brown Brothers was from Milawa… it was probably just my Yarra Valley elitism speaking 😛 I grew up within walking distance of three wineries. The place I worked at had an emphasis on local wines as well (add to that I’m not that into wines. Being asked for personal opinions on wines was interesting… especially since I was 18 at the time so officially I shouldn’t know). I also know more about viticulture than I’d care to. I am glad the NE has diversified a bit. The Valley has quite a few industries (to an extent divided by ethnicity…)

  8. Zoomster,

    [Not much stone fruit around Wangaratta.]

    I’ve been lied to! However, for a while there was the serious suggestion we (as a family) move to the Colac area.

  9. deflationite

    I recall a radio interview with a WA graingrower in which he described how the computer in the harvester could log where in a paddock the yield might be higher or lower according to soil type or whatever and next season they could vary the fertiliser for each patch according to the result.

  10. Bugler

    old Healesville girl myself. When I was growing up, there were no wineries in YV (except for one just outside Coldstream) – they had been wiped out decades before by phylloxera.

  11. BK

    a few people have commented in the past when reviewing the GFC it was the miners who were the first to start laying off workers and in big numbers.

  12. Close, Wandin East 🙂 . A town with a tennis court, a public hall and a badminton court. Seville was closer than Wandin North, though 🙂 .

    [When I was growing up, there were no wineries in YV (except for one just outside Coldstream)]

    Yering almost always had wineries, I think. My geography teacher went to great pains to tell us about phylloxera in the 19th Century. Coldsteam and Yering have the largest wineries still, I think 🙂 .

  13. KB – That would be the same Clive who told us all he was running for PM. I doubt he could / should run anywhere.

    He is turning out to be just another big mouthed nutjob who bought himself some seats in the parliament, just when someone or collection of people with brains and some wisdom are going to be needed in the Senate in a few months time.

  14. Bugler

    Indeed. We had a special train once, to take us to the monastery on a school trip (all twelve of us). I used to come home on the train from Uni.

  15. Zoomster,

    I had this crazy fantasy of light rail connecting the various YV towns (particularly along the old Lilydale-Warburton trail, because it suited me the most *cough cough*)

    Uni for me wasn’t exactly direct. I drove 20mins to Lilydale, took a train then a bus. The fares are cheaper than the petrol though, and you can read while you travel. It’s takes the same time as driving in peak hour, too.

  16. [Julie Bishop ‏@JulieBishopMP 6h
    Discussing opportunities for women in business and public life at a roundtable in Port Moresby. ]

    FMD given she’s the only woman in a Cabinet led by a blokesville douche wholly rejected by women voters at home, do you think she was wearing a shit-eating grin as she posed for the photo?

  17. deblonay@748

    Ellis makes a good point………

    Re Ian Thorphe he says that forcing young kids barely of school, age to a decade or more of the daily grind of work needed to make them successful in the harsh world of competitive swimming…. is little short of child abus

    Not sure about that.
    I submitted to a lot of that sort of grind because I wanted to.
    Swimming before and after school 5 or 6 days a week and then competition each weekend.
    I was never even close to the Thorpe league, but I had a lot of company with other kids doing the same. We enjoyed it.
    A few kids did have the talent to rise to the Thorpe level or close to it.
    Good on them!

  18. @Kevin Bonham 823

    [Clive Palmer has claimed to have “internal polling” showing PUP will win the Tasmanian state election. I’ve debunked it here and also pointed to the history of false internal polling claimed by PUP before the federal election:

    Considering that he also claimed that PUP would win the 2013 election and that whatshisname Bjelke-Peterson (the grandson, not Joh back from the grave) would easily win the south-Queensland seat they had endorsed him for, I’m inclined to take Clive’s internal polling with a grain of salt.

  19. Parliament resumes next week. What will the press gallery write about leading into next week if they don’t have polling to obsess over?

  20. There’s (predictably) a new SA Liberal attack ad on TV now (the usual sort with the black and white, and the blokey voice etc.) about last week’s fiasco.

    The most interesting part I observed was the “While the state is losing jobs, they’re protecting theirs” line. While, on the surface, it seems like a criticism of priorities, it is also a sneaky way to imply it’s the cause of job losses. If that point sinks in, you can guarantee the state government will get full blame for job losses – even those that are due to federal cuts.

    I hate to say it but I think it’s pretty effective.

  21. Carey:

    Wasn’t SA Labor returned within a hair’s breath last time? It’s seemed to me for a while now that the govt will change hands in SA, esp since the Liberals dumped Redmond.

    I’m not getting this seeming expectation that Weatherill’s govt will be returned, if only it weren’t for X this and Y that from the factional numpties.

  22. @Carey/836

    Not sure why would people vote for the SA Liberal clowns after Holden fiasco now SPC fiasco?

    Attack ads about Job losses only go so far as fear driven.

    Inregarding your quote line, I think it’s also an attack ad against Federal Coalition Party.

    “While the state is losing jobs, they’re protecting theirs”

    Does it mention Labor at all? Or is it General?

    With Victoria / South Australia loosing jobs, on the bases of Federal Coalition Party, I think it’s more of a general attack.

  23. Carey Moore @ 836: And entirely predictable. Senator Farrell should be despatched from public life not because he’s a shoppie, or a faceless man, or a Catholic; but just because he’s a damn fool.

  24. ACT excepted, it looks like wall to wall LNP governments from March till November – when the Napthine government falls in VIC.

    I suppose one cant be 100% certain about SA, but I dont fancy their chances with the Don Farrell poison of the last week.

    Honestly, youve just got to turf these warlords out of your party, ALP, and smash their power bases to a pulp. No good comes of them, only ill.

  25. Other than VIC none of those disposed of, or to be disposed of, Labor governments should be surprised that they were disposed of. There were some pretty ordinary performances in those given their marching orders.

  26. Howes made some good points but he failed to hold the party line so he has to pay the price. And that pretty well describes what is wrong in politics these days. Stick your head up and make suggestions not in line with current idealogy and you get smashed.

    Why shouldn’t we have open and frank community discussions about all issues regardless of their controversy?

  27. I haven’t seen Howes, either at the NPC or on 730, so can’t comment on his performances on either.

    Personally I think he represents everything Labor should eschew. The cocky, smug superiority he oozes is best left with the Greens, who wear that shit well with the types of voters that party targets and represents.

    Just for once I’d love to see Howes knock one out of the park for the ALP, but he consistently fails.

  28. [Why shouldn’t we have open and frank community discussions about all issues regardless of their controversy?]

    Did Howes say something genuinely controversial, or just his usual of genuinely smug and stupid?

    I’m all up for frank discussions that contribute meaningfully, but past experience suggests we aren’t going to get that from the likes of Paul Howes.

  29. Buglar
    Colac never was or is now a fruit growing area I lived there for some years…it’s cows and spuds and that is it

    The Yarra Valley is still a major area for berry crops and some fresh summer fruit

  30. Fess if you get a chance it’s worth the time to read the transcript of his address. Overall it was both frank and balanced. Trouble is he seems to be now copping it from all sides which is an indication that pluralism in IR is pretty much dead in the water at a national level.

  31. @davidwh/844

    Howes abit like Abbott & Co, Words fail – Actions don’t.

    And what direction you take that Action also depends on your success of the said words/action.

  32. davidwh:

    Howes isn’t ‘copping it’ from me because of some pluralism in IR nonsense, but because he has a track record of putting his foot in it just when the labour movement doesn’t need it.

    I’ll try to catch the transcript of his speech, but am ambivalent because frankly I’ve heard it all before from him and his ilk.

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