ReachTEL: ABC, republicanism, Cosgrove v Bryce

ReachTEL gives both sides of the argument something to go on in relation to ABC bias, and finds evidence of conservatism on matters vice-regal and republican.

The Fairfax papers today offer three attitudinal findings from a ReachTEL automated phone poll, which was conducted on Thursday evening from a sample of 2146 respondents:

• After Tony Abbott’s efforts to place the matter on the agenda earlier this week, a question on ABC bias finds 59.6% of respondents saying there is none. However, conservative critics of the public broadcaster can at least point to the fact that many more think it biased to Labor (32.2%) than the Coalition (8.2%). While the result at both ends may have been influenced by Abbott’s activism, it nonetheless offers an interesting supplement to the yearly ABC-commissioned Newspoll surveys, which consistently find overwhelming majorities considering its reporting to be “balanced and even-handed” without probing into respondents’ partisanship. The Sydney Morning Herald’s graphic features breakdowns by age and gender.

• Support for republicanism appears to be at a low ebb, with 39.4% in favour and 41.6% opposed. Tellingly, the 18-34 cohort joins 65-plus in recording a net negative rating (though by a considerably smaller margin), with those in between recording majorities in favour. Age and gender breakdowns here.

• There’s also a question on who is preferred out of the incumbent Governor-General and her designated successor, with 57.1% favouring Peter Cosgrove versus 42.9% for Quentin Bryce. I do wonder though about a method which requires a definite answer from all respondents to such a question, given the number that wouldn’t have an opinion.

UPDATE: And now a further finding from the poll that 52.5% agree that Labor should distance itself from the union movement”, compared with 25.6% who disagree.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,716 comments on “ReachTEL: ABC, republicanism, Cosgrove v Bryce”

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  1. Calling Abbott and Hockey liars! I reckon

    if Sharman Stone doesn’t pull the pin, it will be pulled for her. You can get away with dissent at a decision but calling the leader and the treasurer liars is a completely different story.

    Cue pyrotechnics

  2. I’m looking at the next 2-3 months as a bit of a litmus test for this government. If they don’t get some sort of bounce from the work for the dole announcement and a few other things that tie into it, they’re in big trouble

  3. [Sharman Stone has declared she will never become an Independent, because they are toothless tigers (not her words). Only her membership of a major Party gives her clout.]

    I expect there’ll be some strong Independents at both the state and federal level. Unfortunately PUP are probably well placed to fill the gap, and they appear to be a front, with Palmer is still donating to the LNP after he formed his party. I expect PUP to collapse either due to general nutbagness of Clive and his candidates or due to Clive dropping dead due to an overdue coronary thrombosis.

    It’d be more interesting if some rural LNP senators went to the cross-benches over this and the cuts to regional services.

    I bet Napthine and Abbott concoct some ‘fights’ over these issues over the next 10 months, with Napthine having a significant ‘win’ just before the November election. Abbott is pretty well universally loathed down here in Victoria – even libs, and especially nats, don’t like or trust him. I’m hoping to have state and federal parliaments with McGowan and Windsor like members sharing BoP with the Greens in the future.

    meanwhile in Vic, I’m hoping the speaker does the dirty on his disloyal party and brings on an early election.

  4. It’s time to throw Abbott’s “logic” back at him.

    Give the $25m to create a tourist experience at SPC in Shepparton:

    [On the ABC’s I program on Monday night Mr Abbott defended the decision, arguing the situation was very different to a pre-election pledge to give $16 million to chocolate company Cadbury to re-establish its factory tour in Tasmania.

    “It’s not to Cadbury for running their business, it’s for Cadbury to reopen their premises to tourism,” Mr Abbott said.

    “The Cadbury’s chocolate tour wasn’t about Cadbury and its profit and its business, it was about tourism to Tasmania … they’re two completely different circumstances.”]

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cabinet_lying_on_spc_worker_perks_08NflxDH6RMj1LSMToE8SJ

  5. Dr Stone is gaining far more publicity as a member of the LNP than she would as an independent. She could become Rudd like in a destabilisation campaign.

    I think she’s made the right decision to stay with the party…

  6. Bushfire Bill@1450


    Like the Evil Queen in Snow White he can’t bear the thought that, with all his electoral triumphs, he’s tanked in the polls and that even at the moment of his triumph the right to do anything he wants to do will be taken from him. There is someone in the land fairer than he. It’s driven him round the bend with frustration.

    In these cases The Whirling Detvish just gets even more aggressive and driven by hatred. It’s a malignant attitude for anyone to bring to government. It’s a terrible way to run a country.

    BB, you have a wonderful command of the English language. Your essays here, even when they concern horrible things, are touching works of beauty. It’s a shame they are so ephemeral in this medium.

  7. Memo to Tony Abbott:

    What goes around, comes around, Pal.

    Your political witch hunt tactic can, and will be used against you in a future Labor Government.
    I, for one, can’t wait to see your pathetic arse dragged through a Royal Commission.

    Lets start with boats.

  8. Personally I think AbbottInc will give Stone a fair amount of felxibility to vent but we will see. I think she should be allowed to argue for her constituents as long as she doesn’t go too far and I don’t believe she has yet.

    It’s what I call getting closer to real democracy and there should be more of it.

  9. lizzie@1395

    Food warning!

    I purchased some frozen tempura battered barramundi a couple of weeks ago, and being a little tired and emotional at the time, it hardly registered with me that they were
    1. Woolworth’s ‘Select’ home brand &
    2. Made in China

    I prepared them last night and found them inedible because of the taste of mould inside the poor quality tempura batter.

    So far no ill effects, but I’ll never buy that ‘brand’ again.

    You should take any leftover portion, even the cooked uneaten portion, back to Woolworths and complain bitterly.

    I do buy Coles house brands but only after checking where they, and alternatives, are made. I will go for the Australian product first with added bonus points if it is an Australian manufacturer rather than a local subsidiary of a multi-national.

  10. lizzie

    Do you have any Aldi stores near you? Their products are very good as far as I am concerned and much cheaper than Woolies and Coles.

    I buy a few items in Woolies because I prefer them but if you can you should try Aldi.

  11. bemused

    I don’t feel emotionally strong enough to go the complaint routine at the moment. I felt that “publishing” my complaint on PB would probably have more effect and reach more people. All we get from our local store is a refund.

  12. Spur I heard her interview on the ABC. She was fired up and passionate, the reporter virtually cornered her into the comment. A fair person would cut her some slack under the circumstances.

    Having said that she does need to tone it down a little now she has made her position very clear.

  13. There may or may not have been one or more Newspolls conducted since the last published poll for 13/14 December.

    One thing is certain – Murdoch is fully aware that the Abbott government is on the nose. His dilemma is whether to keep polling until a more favourable result emerges, or to save his money on polling for the time being.

    If there have not been any rumours of ‘buried’ Newspoll results, then it is most likely that Murdoch is not spending on polling. This would make sense for two reasons:

    – Murdoch’s reorganised newspaper business worldwide no longer has access to unlimited cross subsidies from the profitable entertainment side

    – Murdoch just cannot bear to publish bad news on Abbott’s electoral standing.

  14. [Spur I heard her interview on the ABC. She was fired up and passionate, the reporter virtually cornered her into the comment. A fair person would cut her some slack under the circumstances.]

    Yes, to be fair, the reporter asked her if she was accusing Abbott of lying. She said “you could say that”, or “you could put it that way”, or wtte.

    However, after being fair, I am partisan.

    “Teh Poltics” says she shouldn’t have fallen for the trap.Now it’s in the papers as “Stone accuses Abbott of lying” and that’s all we need to know.

    Goose, meet gander.

  15. David

    If stone thinks Abbott and hockey lied, she shouldn’t have to be “cornered ” into saying it. One of the problems with politics is that very few people will say what they think. We listen and when it is finished we wonder what it was all about. We know Abbott and hockey lied, so why should there be any pussy footing around the issue.

  16. I’m not sure whether either Abbott or Hockey lied. Abbott did comment strongly that SPC should look at fixing their over-generous enterprise bargain rather than asking the government for money. I’m not sure that is lieing. Certainly both Abbott and Hockey tried to use the enterprise bargain to take some heat of their decision not to give SPC $25 million but again I am not sure that is lieing.

    If those types of political rhetoric are lies then basically our politicians lie to us all the time. Which may actually be true.

  17. davidwh

    according to Stone, Cabinet had a document outlining the TRUE SPC worker conditions. If Abbott et al didn’t read that, that’s negligence. If they read it and have gone ahead to misrepresent the situation (as they have) that’s lying.

  18. dwh

    Voters in Shepparton will be thinking about switching parties. Yes that includes the farmers.

    Voters will judge on the actions that suit them.

    State Labor is looking good in the local paper

  19. Zoomster I haven’t heard those comments from Stone. In that case she has probably backed herself into something of a corner. I am not sure the government can ignore it if one of their MP’s goes around leaking cabinet information.

  20. [“@latikambourke: LNP MP George Christensen tells @abcnews – Sharman Stone calling PM Abbott a liar is a ‘step too far.’”
    ]

    Hilarious there would be very few days you couldn’t accurately call the PM a liar.

  21. May have missed it here but meanwhile on twitter NewsCorpses delightful Chris Kenny has opined over SPC “Sharman Stone demonstrates why she couldn’t hold a frontbench gig Not bright”

    Responses have hit Kenny with rather a lot of barrels and pointed out that this would be Dr Sharman Stone. Is she the only econs PhD that the Federal Libs have folks?

  22. Guytaur I am not sure votes is a good reason for government to give companies taxpayers money although I am not so naive as to believe it doesn’t happen all the time.

  23. lizzie@1463

    bemused

    I don’t feel emotionally strong enough to go the complaint routine at the moment. I felt that “publishing” my complaint on PB would probably have more effect and reach more people. All we get from our local store is a refund.

    If you complain in a non-angry manner it is not stressful and you will get a positive response if the store manager is any good.

    I have to say my local Coles manager is an all-round nice guy and I have got to know him to the extent we exchange greetings whenever we encounter each other. He actually does the sensible thing and welcomes complaints as they alert him to problems affecting his customers and allow him to take action.

    Actually there has been a cultural shift in the Coles staff and they now bend over backwards to be helpful and assist in any way they can and be friendly to customers. It is interesting as they seem to enjoy their jobs more through their friendly interactions with customers and as a customer I find it a better experience.

  24. I suspect Stone has decided to become an Independent but has been wary of that step of leaving the protection of a major party.

    So Like Wimdsor and Oakshott another good MP forced out of the party not wanting to leave the party

  25. [1452
    spur212

    I’m looking at the next 2-3 months as a bit of a litmus test for this government. If they don’t get some sort of bounce from the work for the dole announcement and a few other things that tie into it, they’re in big trouble]

    Why would they get a bounce from re-introducing work for the dole measures? Anxiety about employment is reported to be quite high among households and rules that amount to punishing or stereotyping the jobless will likely only increase the fears held by working people.

    People know the LNP are playing politics with the jobless. This may go down well with partisan right-wingers but will do nothing for the confidence of most voters. Considering the Government is now clearly identified with decisions that will cost ‘000’s of jobs and others that are intended to reduce incomes available to working people, mandatory work for the dole programs will add to perceptions that the LNP are anti-worker. This will cost them support among those who feel vulnerable to economic pressures.

    People know the LNP carry anti-worker sentiments in their shirt-pockets. Work Choices is the most obvious and extreme example of this and has not been forgotten by voters. The decisions announced so far by the Abbott Government will only activate fear that LNP radicalism is being revived and enacted in another guise. Though they may not yet appreciate it, the more aggressively they pursue these policies the more they will suffer in the polls.

  26. Work to Rule the poll break was this long after the 2010 election year. I doubt it has much to do with News not wanting to publish a bad result for the opposition. More likely simple cost/benefit and people generally not all that interested in polls more than two years out from the next election.

    I did think we would get a Newspoll last weekend though.

  27. Bottom line is SPC’s parent company has the money and position to retool SPC if they cared.

    I for one will be avoiding buying their products where possible until they do something.

  28. davidwh

    interesting point – because Stone isn’t in Cabinet, so she’s repeating what other Cabinet members have told her.

    She was pretty definite that ‘the majority’ had backed the SPC bail out.

  29. bemused

    [If you complain in a non-angry manner it is not stressful and you will get a positive response if the store manager is any good.]

    I think you might have had an empathy bypass today. It is always my policy to complain in a non-angry manner and I also compliment the managers if a checkout person is particularly helpful.

    However, today I was completely unable to answer any of the friendly “how are you today?” in the local shops without breaking down. Conversation was impossible.

  30. Agreed with pom @ 1471.Abbott’s quite capable of a reversal here. Only $25 million after all & if he can look good on the day he’ll do it. In balancing long vs short term considerations Abbott will do what’s right for the moment.

  31. [A day or two ago Google blocked Abbott for being a liar until they realised he had the job of PM]

    that was because spammers flooded the account with spam reports triggering a failsafe. Was unlocked when an employee actually reviewed the spam reports and content.
    That is akin to a DDos attack.
    The spammers accounts should be suspended for abusing a valid and needed tool.

  32. dwh

    Regarding Polls. News will probably rely on excuses DWH is putting. So they will not do one until parliament sits.

    However given record of publishing you know its an excuse whens polling has increased in frequency not decreased over time.

  33. lizzie@1492

    bemused

    If you complain in a non-angry manner it is not stressful and you will get a positive response if the store manager is any good.


    I think you might have had an empathy bypass today. It is always my policy to complain in a non-angry manner and I also compliment the managers if a checkout person is particularly helpful.

    However, today I was completely unable to answer any of the friendly “how are you today?” in the local shops without breaking down. Conversation was impossible.

    I can only respond to what you say and I don’t see how you can accuse me of lacking empathy.

    Have I missed something? I know your OH is in hospital but was not aware of the extent to which it was affecting you. 🙁

  34. The context here is that Abbott made up two or three lies about what was in the enterprise agreement between SPC and its workers. The conditions Abbott nominated simply did not exist. Abbott’s lies were, therefore, quite specific lies. Further, the lies were public lies designed to damage Abbott’s enemies in the eyes of the public.

    Abetz, confronted with Abbott’s lies by Cassidy on Insiders, simply slid past the lies by doing unicorn. In other words, Abetz knew that Abbott lied but was not prepared to call Abbott out on the lies. Nor was Abetz prepared to lie on Abbott’s behalf by denying Abbott’s lies in public.

    I think I understand Liberal ‘ethics’.

    Abbott lying all the time is not a step too far.

    But actually telling the truth and calling Abbott a liar is a step too far.

  35. Of course, for Stone it will also be a matter of personal integrity. She must have gone to the last election assuring her constituents (and SPC) that a Liberal government would match Labor’s commitment.

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