ReachTEL: ABC, republicanism, Cosgrove v Bryce

ReachTEL gives both sides of the argument something to go on in relation to ABC bias, and finds evidence of conservatism on matters vice-regal and republican.

The Fairfax papers today offer three attitudinal findings from a ReachTEL automated phone poll, which was conducted on Thursday evening from a sample of 2146 respondents:

• After Tony Abbott’s efforts to place the matter on the agenda earlier this week, a question on ABC bias finds 59.6% of respondents saying there is none. However, conservative critics of the public broadcaster can at least point to the fact that many more think it biased to Labor (32.2%) than the Coalition (8.2%). While the result at both ends may have been influenced by Abbott’s activism, it nonetheless offers an interesting supplement to the yearly ABC-commissioned Newspoll surveys, which consistently find overwhelming majorities considering its reporting to be “balanced and even-handed” without probing into respondents’ partisanship. The Sydney Morning Herald’s graphic features breakdowns by age and gender.

• Support for republicanism appears to be at a low ebb, with 39.4% in favour and 41.6% opposed. Tellingly, the 18-34 cohort joins 65-plus in recording a net negative rating (though by a considerably smaller margin), with those in between recording majorities in favour. Age and gender breakdowns here.

• There’s also a question on who is preferred out of the incumbent Governor-General and her designated successor, with 57.1% favouring Peter Cosgrove versus 42.9% for Quentin Bryce. I do wonder though about a method which requires a definite answer from all respondents to such a question, given the number that wouldn’t have an opinion.

UPDATE: And now a further finding from the poll that 52.5% agree that Labor should distance itself from the union movement”, compared with 25.6% who disagree.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,716 comments on “ReachTEL: ABC, republicanism, Cosgrove v Bryce”

Comments Page 29 of 35
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  1. Sharman Stone could do no worse becoming an Independent. She obviously carries no influence within the party at present. She has absolutely nothing to lose by quitting the party

  2. My point about the Royal Commission wasn’t that the Liberals are bastards who claim to defend convention, to be its custodians even, but break it at every opportunity thatadvantages them.

    The question was: is there a legal basis for the Royal Commission to demand the production of documents normally considered secret, or classified?

    If there was no Act of Parliament setting it up, then it seems to me to be a too easy way of getting around the prohibition of classified documents: just declare a RC to be in effect and then compel your political opponents to produce confidential documents to it, or go to jail for contempt.

    The political considerations, to me, are that Abbott won the election, but that he is trying to re-win it every week.

    He got his victory: both Rudd and Gillard are out of office, and out of politics. Their party suffered a heavy defeat at the election. Abbott is now Prime Minister. What MORE does he want?

    Government by vendetta is a dangerous thing. The Coalition’s allies, News Ltd, last night, on-air, in public, threatened Tanya Plibersek with “a war” if she wanted to start criticising them, via a threat from Nick Cater. To “government by vendetta” add “rule by thugs”. It’s what happens when organized crime takes over city hall: they don’t stop being thugs. They wreck the joint until there’s nothing left.

    Abbott clear psychological problem is that he just cannot let things go. He has no sense of decency, just a yearning to kick heads. His boxing opponent is on the mat, unconscious, but he’s trying to revive him, to stand him up so he can hit him again. His whole life Abbott has been making others look bad so that, by default, he will look good… simply because there’s no-one else still standing.

    There’s not much subtlety to him, is there?

  5. http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/02/libs-reachtel-not-completely-over-line.html

    Libs’ ReachTEL: Not Completely Over The Line

    An internal ReachTEL the Liberals have released is the first Tasmanian state poll for some time that shows the outcome in any doubt at all.

    My Mark Grewar piece has hit the local limelight:

    These from ABC:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-03/pup-candidate-defended/5235882?section=tas
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-03/palmer-united-party-defends-state-poll-candidate-over-social-me/5235278

    This one from Sally Glaetzer (Mercury) is more in-depth and includes the candidate’s responses/excuses:

    http://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/pup-candidate-mark-grewar-in-liberal-party-firing-line/story-fnj4f7k1-1226817089752

  6. victoria

    Sharman Stone has declared she will never become an Independent, because they are toothless tigers (not her words). Only her membership of a major Party gives her clout.

  8. BB

    why would Gillard and Rudd have any papers anyway?

    First thing I did on leaving council was consign all my minutes and briefing papers to the bonfire. If I’d had an actual office…with staff…I certainly wouldn’t have packed any to take home.

    The RC is far more likely to find what they need by sending a couple of office staff to go through the Parliamentary archives than they are by asking ex politicians.

  13. Victoria

    Why do you think that Abbott is actually running the government? It seems to me that Joe Hockey is effectively the PM, supported by Prissy, Robb and Mesma.

    The Nats seems an irrelevance as does Tony himself

  14. [Sharman Stone has declared she will never become an Independent, because they are toothless tigers (not her words). Only her membership of a major Party gives her clout.]

    Starting when?

  15. lizzie

    Sharman Stone is a toothless tiger as a Liberal. At least she will have integrity if she gives this mob the finger. They are an embarrassment

  19. Simon Cullen on 24 talking about how ex Cabinet ministers including of course PM’s don’t have to turn up to RC on Batts. Also about cabinet privilege, but how personal documents like diaries may not be covered by that privilege.

    If this is so it proves for doubters its a political witch hunt.

  21. Tony Abbott has said his $16m grant to Cadbury is “radically different” from the funding he refused SPC Ardmona because the Cadbury grant was solely for “re-establishing the famous chocolate tour” of the Cadbury factory and not for any other aspect of the business.

    But when the Coalition announced the Cadbury grant during the election campaign, it said the money would “increase chocolate production to 70,000 tonnes a year” and trial cocoa farming in Australia

  23. confessions

    The good part is it will blow up in their face. The only sane conclusion will be to increase “red tape” to have Coag have uniform work and safety laws based on the best standard in the country.

    Directly contrary to Abbott’s Tea Party ethos of no government regulating business

  26. Some of the union/employer litigation in the Federal Court sitting in Victoria has produced some unhappy results.

    Justice Murphy delivered a judgement last week generally favourable to the CFA who was sued by the Firefighter’s Union on account of CFA’s failure to conduct recruiting courses which it had agreed in an award to do.

    The CFA argued that the clauses in the agreement (which it of course agreed to) were unconstitutional which Justice Murphy accepted.

    The legal spend must have been enormous. The union had four barristers including two silks engaged.

  27. Bugler

    The main reason many University graduates go though a period of unemployment is a lack of work experience.

    Universities have a pretty informal environment and whilst in the long run graduates professionally benefit from having a degree but in the short term employers like experience as that shows the employer a few things regarding workplace behavior and can show other soft skills outside of the university process.

    Many Universities have countered this by creating workplace units and introduced Industry Based Learning programs which allow students to gain some experience and exposure to the workplace.

    One of the biggest problems current students have is the tight Labour market is favoring employment though networking and employers for sometime have been more picky about who they recruit.

  29. Apparently there’s an article in the AFR today outlining the latest workplace agreement at Cadbury — which is far more generous than anything at SPC!

  30. The Insulation Royal Commission may see some “mud” stick to some former politicians.

    The real dirty mud will stick to the companies and employers who failed to follow OHS standards, failed to provide training and those who stole or defrauded taxpayer money

    And as a result there will some mud stuck on Abbott and the Liberals when the people wake up to the cost and true intention of the RC.

    The RC is the action of a small minded little bully boy who suffers terribly from some kind of penis envy and who has a need to always prove mines bigger than yours and I’m tougher than you

  31. I give Stone credit for not laying down a taking the woeful SPCA decision –

    [ SPCA not majority cabinet decision: Stone

    The decision to withhold $25 million in federal government funding for struggling SPC Ardmona goes against the view of the majority of cabinet ministers, Member for Murray Sharman Stone has said.

    “This decision wasn’t the majority view of cabinet, I know that for a fact,” Dr Stone told Business Spectator.

    “This is about the leadership team wanting to draw a line in the sand for a full-scale war with the unions via the Royal Commission.”

    Parent company Coca-Cola Amatil Ltd was seeking a $25 million contribution from the federal government and a matching amount from the Victorian state government to match its $150 million investment in new products and technology.

    Victorian opposition leader Daniel Andrews has pledged $30 million in aid to the fruit company if Labor wins the state election later this year. ]

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2014/2/4/manufacturing/spca-not-majority-cabinet-decision-stone

    and

    [ SPCA workers are cannon fodder in a different war

    Rob Burgess

    Something very dangerous is happening within the debate over the government’s decision not to ‘co-invest’ $25 million to upgrade SPC Ardomona’s Shepparton plant.

    SPCA workers earning around $50,000 a year are being used as cannon fodder in the Abbott government’s war against a legitimate enemy – the construction unions that have pushed up construction costs and engaged in corrupt activities.

    What is at risk now is what should be a large growth industry – innovative packaged fruit products with strong export outlooks. The industry around Shepparton looks likely to be shut down to allow the Abbott government to present a united front against the union moment.

    …Member for Murray Sharman Stone points out that the Shepparton region has an unemployment rate of 8.5 per cent. Her figures come from disaggregated data from Centrelink covering the City of Greater Shepparton areas.

    …If the investment does not go ahead, local unemployment will – according to Stone – rise by around 5000 people and hit around 11 per cent.

    …Asked whether there had been any blow-back from party colleagues over her strident stand on SPCA, Stone said: “None at all, because the party agrees with me entirely. This decision wasn’t the majority view of cabinet, I know that for a fact.”

    She added: “This is about the leadership team wanting to draw a line in the sand for a full-scale war with the unions via the Royal Commission.”

    Stone is only one backbencher, and she is talking about her own electorate. However, the vigour with which she is pursuing the case of the growers, factory workers and supply chain workers associated with SPCA is extraordinary. ]

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/2/4/agribusiness/spca-workers-are-cannon-fodder-different-war

  32. An earlier unhappy outcome arose from the litigation between Victoria and the CFEMU in connection with the former’s Code of Practice for the Building and Construction Industry which permitted the exclusion of tenderers from state projects where the tenderers were involved in enterprise agreements with unions.

    First time around Victoria’s use of the code in excluding tenderers was found to be unlawful and it was fined. The Full Court overturned the decision.

  34. [The real dirty mud will stick to the companies and employers who failed to follow OHS standards, failed to provide training and those who stole or defrauded taxpayer money]

    I can’t remember the exact terms of reference, but my impression is that they pretty-much excluded a plenary investigation. Even official coroner’s investigations were to be discarded.

    The terms were more along the lines of accepting that the Batts scheme was “botched” and trying to find out exactly who from the Rudd government to blame for it (preferably as many as possible).

    The possibility that anyone else could be guilty was, from memory, excluded from the terms.

  36. Bushfire Bill

    If you are right, and I don’t doubt you probably are, then the families who are expecting the RC to provide some closure or reasons as to why the family member died, will not get it.

    The deaths did not occur because of poor administration, they occurred because employers failed in their duty of care.

  37. I dont see how Shar Stone can stay in the Party. If this decision is as diabolical as she is ranting about then she MUST leave. She seems to be having it both ways…and maybe that suits Tony fine because he gets his way AND Libs keep the seat. Clever, nice work….unless you work for SPC or supply them. More of the same from the Coalition trying to fool their electorate, taking them for granted and leaving them in the ditch.

    If Sharman wants to be a representative of her community she needs to walk the walk.

  38. AA

    [The deaths did not occur because of poor administration, they occurred because employers failed in their duty of care.]

    Exactly!

  39. Nah its counter productive, if Stone walks she can be totally certain that Tone & co will totally snub her area, she would be better off being becoming the public face of internal opposition thus creating friction, walk away and she will be ignored by the media and dismissed as a rebel or sore loser.

  41. beemer – i dont read it that way. She is being allowed this amount of dissension only as a means for her to save a little face and to easily hold the seat at the next election. I am sure she will not be allowed to maintain such public dissent.

  43. Simone

    Sure there is an element of that but based on Tone & co’s past performance it may well be better for Stone to be focal within knowing full well if the Liberals try to dump her she can beat them as an independent.

  47. beemer – but i do agree she probably sees it differently to me. I just take issue with some suggesting she has shown strength by coming out openly against the decision. The Liberal Party is looking after itself and Sharman is looking after herself and at present her behaviour suits both….just isnt helping those she represents.

    There may be a sweetener for the electorate in the wind that she can claim she won

  48. Simone

    she is also following the example of a well loved (but ultimately ineffectual) local State Nats MP – didn’t achieve much of worth in his thirty years, but made a great deal out of standing up for his electorate against the Kennett government — even though his displays of courage didn’t actually result in anything real happening. (When he left politics, the two issues he nominated as the ones he wanted to pin his hat on were still unresolved).

    Strange how every one knew what he’d said to Jeff Kennett in private…

  49. poroti

    It sure is in most cases.

    It was for that reason that John Faulkner asked me to run against Roozendaal for the position of NSW State Organiser in 1988.

    Of course the Right had the numbers for a victory but I did get 42.8% of the vote against him.

    The Right were forced to vote in pairs and display their vote to each other.

    I voted with the soft left always but never joined a faction.

    Roozendaal is a nasty piece of work.

  50. AA, that’s just my recollection from reading Hanger’s statement at the formal opening of the inquiry.

    He said he didn’t feel bound by the the findings of any previous investigations into the Batts program.

    To me it’s extraordinary that with only four men killed – and mostly through their own stupidity or that or their employers (or both) – the good that the Batts program achieved should be ignored in favour of some maudlin – and VERY personal, too personal in my opinion – need for the smarmy American TV drama notion of “closure” for the parents.

    “Closure” – if it exists – comes from within. You have to come to terms with your own conscience and your own feelings. Finding someone to blame (conveniently someone whom you don’t support politically) doesn’t make the loss go away. You could say it focuses the hatred and bitterness.

    I ask myself almost every day whether I was a good enough son to my parents. They are both dead, but every now and again something comes to mind that I might have done better, or less insensitively. I’m not racked with guilt. I loved my parents and was a good son, but it’s only natural, from time to time, to consider whether I could have loved them more, or shown it more.

    After mature consideration, over an extended period, I’ve come to the conclusion that I was OK, and that our relationship was normal and functional. It’s not that I’ve been tortured by past events. Nothing like that. But with advancing age comes the time to reflect, and the wisdom to do it honestly.

    Both my parents died in hospital. There was, if you like, advance warning that they were very, very sick.
    Sudden deaths are more tragic.

    Parents deprived of a child – one minute they’re alive and the next minute they’re not – have cause for extreme grief. There’s no doubt about that.

    My own ex-neighbours had their beautiful and talented daughter killed in a car accident a few years ago. Her neck was snapped by the impact and she was dead before her car came to rest. Her father was caught in a traffic jam caused by the accident. He rang home to tell them he’d be late because of it, but the family didn’t have the heart to tell him why the main roads were so clogged. It was an awful situation.

    Her funeral was so sad. Everything about it was terrible.

    The boy who was driving the other car was a typical “spoilt brat”, the son of rich Hong Kong Chinese parents who’d given him a BMW for his birthday. He’d lost his licence twice, and when he killed the girl he was uninsured and driving illegally. He was speeding. He went through a red light. It had all the elements of a complete tragedy.

    The intersection was a well-known and well-documented black spot. The locals had been lobbying for remediation for years. I used to literally have nightmares about being wiped out there. But in the end it wasn’t me. It was Kate.

    The offender’s parents employed, over two trials and an appeal, three QCs. They flew in road traffic experts from America to testify he couldn’t have been speeding. Eye witnesses had their police driving records dragged up; their characters questioned; their motives for helping forensically criticised. The kid got out of jail after only 16 months of a 4 year minimum sentence.

    We were all outraged. Ray Hadley got involved in some kind of public campaign against the other driver. It went on and on… and on.

    The parents never got their closure. They are still devastated. Her sister cannot work and is on a disability pension. Their lives are empty.

    Yet they know who caused their daughter’s death. There was a legal process. Blame was assigned… and that’s where it all went wrong.

    It’s only one instance, of course. We all have our personal tragedies. But we don’t all get Royal Commissions to make us feel better about them (especially when we probably won’t feel better at all).

    You could say that the boys who died did so for the good of the nation. Thousands were employed who otherwise would have been on the dole. The program had to be rushed. Without speed it would have been no use. They acted stupidly, as did their employers, but if we were to take the blame all the way up the chain, then why not haul Roads Ministers before the court whenever there’s a fatal traffic accident at a black spot?

    Abbott is running this inquiry simply because he thinks he can drag Gillard and Rudd back onto their feet so he can knock them down again. It’s unhealthy, both for Abbott and for the nation.

    Apart from his natural brutishness, he probably thinks he can discredit the entire notion of Keynesian economics, destroy the idea that stimulus programs – and the debt that goes with them – have any use at all, except to kill innocent, over-enthusiastic young boys.

    Just as the parents are trying, after all the hearings, coroners’ reports, trials and so on, to still grasp at the elusive “closure”, Abbott is still going after political closure. He can’t accept that he won the election so handsomely, yet still be so disliked and out of favour with the public.

    He believes that if he punches Gillard and Rudd to the mat again, knocks them out a second and a third time, then finally the public will start to love him because there’ll be no-one left to love except him. It’s certainly obsessive. It’s close to insanity.

    Like the Evil Queen in Snow White he can’t bear the thought that, with all his electoral triumphs, he’s tanked in the polls and that even at the moment of his triumph the right to do anything he wants to do will be taken from him. There is someone in the land fairer than he. It’s driven him round the bend with frustration.

    In these cases The Whirling Detvish just gets even more aggressive and driven by hatred. It’s a malignant attitude for anyone to bring to government. It’s a terrible way to run a country.

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