UPDATE (Essential and Morgan): The fortnightly Morgan multi-mode poll, conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3019 by face-to-face and SMS, shows little change on the primary vote, with the Coalition up half a point to 39.5%, Labor down one to 37%, the Greens up one to 11.5% and the Palmer United Party down half a point to 3%. Labor’s lead is up half a point on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 52.5-47.5 to 53-47, but the precise opposite happens on the previous election preferences measure. Today’s Essential Research moves a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. See bottom of post for further details.
GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest monthly ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted for the Seven Network gives Labor its biggest post-election lead to date, up to 53-47 from 52-48 in the December 15 poll. Primary votes are Coalition 39.8%, down from 41.4%; Labor 40.6%, up from 40.4%; and Greens 9.1%, up from 8.7%. The poll also has 20.3% reporting being better off since a year ago compared with 39.3% for worse off and 40.4% for neither. Prospectively, 23.5% expect to be better off in a year, 39.4% worse off and 37.1% neither. On the economy as a whole, 34.9% think it headed in the right direction and 39.3% in the wrong direction, with 25.8% undecided. A very similar question from Essential Research last week had 38% rating the economy as heading in the right direction versus 33% for the wrong direction, which while better than the ReachTEL results was a substantial deterioration on post-election findings which had it at 44% and 27%. These figures here courtesy of Ryan Moore on Twitter.
The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 3547. Full results will be available on the ReachTEL site tomorrow, which will apparently include personal ratings that have Tony Abbott up and Bill Shorten down. Stay tuned tomorrow for the weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Morgan.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Crikey reports Essential Research has moved a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. Also featured: privatisation deemed a bad idea by 59%, including 69% for Australia Post and 64% for the ABC and SBS; 24% think we spend too much on welfare, 41% too little and 27% about right; 64% believe the age pension too low, but only 27% think the same about unemployment benefits; 78% believe alcohol-related violence is getting worse, and perhaps also everything they see in the news media; “87% support harsher mandatory sentences for alcohol-related assaults; over 60% support earlier closing times for bottle shops, pubs and clubs; 76% support lockouts and 59% support lifting the age at which you can buy alcohol”. UPDATE: Full report here.
psyclaw
[
However most medical conditions are disabilities.]
I agree this statement is incorrect. I meant to say most medical conditions don’t cause disabilities.
[Mild intellectual disability is not a medical condition ….. It neither arises “medically” nor requires “medical” treatment. Similarly loss of an arm in a workplace chain saw accident creates a disability, which although it may need acute medical treatment in the immediate term, is not in the long term a matter of medicine]
There is no such thing as “arises medically”. And just because something is a medical diagnosis, it doesn’t follow that it requires medical treatment. Most medical diseases don’t require treatment.
rossmcg:
Pretty sure we’ve already seen a Labor leadershit story appear this year. Was it the other day? I can’t remember who wrote it.
RossMCG, it will be Michelle Gratton, and her story will be on Abbotts arsing.
[Mild intellectual disability is not a medical condition ]
Yes it is. It has an ICD 10, DSM V and WHO medical diagnosis code.
Wasn’t Sheehan spruiking Porter earlier? Not quite leadershit, but in the context of recent history pretty darn close.
Diogenes@154
Which, for the lay person mean ?
156
It has official boxes to tick to diagnose it officially.
[Which, for the lay person mean ?]
It’s based on rigorous assessment.
Er, Prettyone, that’s not Sean you’re replying to, its Rex Douglas. A Labor supporter. Sean’s still banned, as far as I know.
I kind of miss Sean, to be honest. I was enjoying watching him gradually go insane as the Libs plunged in the polls. Just think of all the hilarious apoplectic rants we’re missing right now.
YB
The WHO recognises and classifies medical diseases using ICD 10 (International Classification of Diseases). They have a code for each disease to sort of standardise terminology.
DSM V is for mental disorders and does much the same thing.
Bob
Yeah michelle would be short in early markets but her form is not that flash. As somebody once said, if you take a lot lf positions you might eventually be right.mi remember she once had Rudd a handful of votes from the leadersh
RE: It may be classed as a Disability, but Government pretty much determines what passes through the DSP claim as a Disability.
Reading up the Impairment Tables may help the discussion.
Bloody ipad and fat fingers
She had Rudd a handful of votes from the leadership. I can recall if that was the time he ran and bit Pangaea of the time he decided not r
Thanks for those explanations Diogenes
[It has official boxes to tick to diagnose it officially.]
Governments, health funds, hospitals etc have swathes of coders whose job it is to tick those boxes.
Bloody hell … I can’t recall if that was the time he ran and got panted or the time he decided night to run at all.
I think I am lucky I am not driving tonight …
Asha Leu @159
Why was Sean banned?
Interesting times for Psephos and other WWII buffs. Himmler’s letters and diaries have been found and are going to be published over the next week.
[Lost letters, photographs and diaries by Heinrich Himmler have been discovered in Israel, shedding new light on one of the men most directly responsible for the Holocaust.
The stash of documents from the Nazi era is currently held in a bank vault in Tel Aviv, but has been authenticated by the German federal archive, considered the world’s leading authority on material from the period. Its contents are to be published over eight days in the newspaper Welt am Sonntag, starting on Sunday with Himmler’s letters to his wife Margarete.]
I saw a list last week that rated Himmler as the most evil Nazi, followed by Hitler then Heydrich.
Oh dear, was reading a certain blog and found this. Why did it remind me of our unfortunate PM:
[…Pope Francis, for his part, has a vigorous homiletic style that gets his points across loud and clear, often by means of the Jesuit tactic of “three words.” ]
Unitary State@167
For being offensive
Diogenes @ 168: I can see how it makes sense to say that Himmler was more evil than, say, Mahatma Gandhi, but what meaning can be attached to a measurement scale of evil among the top Nazis leadership?
Yesiree Bob @170
Im not surprised. Typical born to rule immoral liberal scum.
53:47 from 46:54.
I take it from this that around three quarters of a million Australians have switched.
Cos Himmler had something similar?
Why are so many people saying Griffith is ‘too close to call’? It dumbfounds me.
Glasson wont get within a barge pole of winning the seat. not after all the missteps by abbott, long awaited resignation of rudd, and the millions in money he blew in one go at his shot last year.
I fully expect the Labor 2PP to have a 6 in front of it after next saturday.
[I did a straw poll the other day and it turns out that he isn’t connecting with people sitting on park benches, hosing their front yards or wearing sandwich boards either.]
That is so good.
Boerwar @ 174: And poor old Goebbels?
pedant
It’s a bit like determining how many life sentences someone deserves.
Surprise, surprise – the ABC has ignored the Reachtel poll, as they have done with all Labor leads thus far. In the old days when their side was winning it was plastered over the site and news services for days. You’d think they’d try to hide their bias a bit more than that.
Unitary State @ 175: That would be interesting, since the by-election isn’t until the week after.
Boerwar
[I take it from this that around three quarters of a million Australians have switched.]
It is hardly consoling when in two years the Murdoch Empire, with terrified and financially crippled public broadcasters, will ambush a mild-mannered, all things to all men, vicar led ALP.
I know I am a terrible pessimist, but I have always been right so far!!!
Diogenes @ 178: I always liked that American sentence, life plus 99 years.
pedant @180
I generally differentiate by referring as ‘this Saturday’ i.e. Feb 1 and then ‘next Saturday’ i.e. Feb 8.
If I am incorrect, then I learnt something today. Cheers buddy
mikehilliard @176
who is this that you were quoting and what was it about? Glasson?
Boerwar
[Cos Himmler had something similar?]
..and Goebels had no balls at all….
Regarding the DSM and definitions of disability.
Practising psychologists across the globe regard the DSM as a reference which is at times and in some areas of psych practice, reasonably helpful.
But the reality is that in many areas (and IMHO the majority of areas) it is unhelpful and misleading.
The issue is that the manual is based on the medical model. For example, DSM has for many editions included a condition known as “mathematics disability”.
This is a disability which “arises” in people and is evidenced in children by their being 2 years behind grade level in maths.
So the child who is 2 grades behind in maths, whose father is unemployed, uneducated and an alcoholic, whose mother also drinks heavily and has for years demeaned and beaten the child, who in Year 4 has been enrolled in 11 schools so far, whose attendance record is less than 50%, and who is ill-fed, is behind in maths because he has a disability. That is DSM for you.
There are many government funded programs across the country to support persons with disabilities. None of them will fund a disability which is based only on a DSM diagnosis. Nuff said!
No lies
No pathetic excuses
No suprises
More transparency
More accountability
Trust me
Surprise No 95. After totally failing to alert people employed in aged care facilities to maintain gardens, do routine maintenance and do painting, the Abbott Government is, after the elections, proposing that this work be done by work-for-the-dole.
Presumably there will be a bit of churn as people currently employed in the aged care sector lose their jobs and return to do the same sorts of work but for much, much less pay and no conditions at all.
In a related surprise, the Liberals have yet to raise the possibility of getting work-for-the-dole people to do MPs’ jobs.
psyclaw
DSM is pretty lame but all government’s follow the WHO’s ICD coding.
pedant
Love the guy who got 380,000 years for not delivering 40,000 letters in Spain.
Another guy got 20 life sentences plus 99 years plus the death penalty.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest_prison_sentences
Jacki Weaver @184
Sorry, that was Fran Barlow @65 I quoted, sloppy of me not to point that out.
John Quiggan on The Anti-Science trends of the Abbott Govt re the Wind Farms issue and the stance of The Oz
_________________________________
Describing the Oz as a Lunar Rightwing Blog published as a daily broadcheet…Quiggan demolishes an Oz writer Delingpole an opponents of wind-towers as a nutter and claims he has also taken the view that “passivce” inhalation oif smoking fumes is harmless
http://johnquiggin.com/
Unitary State@184
Sorry, that was Fran Barlow @65 I quoted, sloppy of me not to point that out.
Don’t know where Jacki Weaver came from?
I agree the form “next Saturday” is ambiguous, which is why the form “Saturday week” exists, which I tend to use to be unambiguous, although I realize it’s not universally used or understood.
[There are many government funded programs across the country to support persons with disabilities. None of them will fund a disability which is based only on a DSM diagnosis.]
In WA govt funded disability support requires an incapacity to be permanent or likely to be permanent, among other criteria.
It is possible (if not likely) that a DSM diagnosis does not align with this criteria. This does not in and of itself mean that a DSM diagnosis is flawed or in some way not indicative of disability in some form.
Sorry, link for WA Disability Services Act:
http://www.disability.wa.gov.au/understanding-disability1/understanding-disability/what-is-disability/
As I understand it, this pretty much aligns with the WHO definition of disability.
Yesiree Bob
Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 9:50 pm | Permalink
Unitary State@167
Asha Leu @159
Why was Sean banned?
For being offensive
=============================
I seem to remember it went beyond offensive to telling another bludger they should “top” themself
Work for the Dole…now we know why Abbott has set about closing down manufacturing and causing a loss of 31,000 full time jogs last month.
His mates (Pell etc) who own aged care facilities (noting how many are church based) need “slave” labour.
Abbott 2 million jobs in 10 years (200,000per year) –
he didn’t explain that they were work for the dole “jobs”.
I am sure deblonay can find a good word to say for old Heinrich.
The slow, jarring, embarrassing collapse of the legitimacy of the LNP Government is unprecedented in my memory of recent British and Australian Governments. The anti-science stance exemplified by climate change denial and the anti wind farm stance is quite remarkable, flying in the face of reasonable scientific enquiry.
[Tony Abbott is now a popular PM. He’s respected and trusted. This is all good and very important.
Mr Shorten is not cutting through.
Remember, 2014 will be ups and downs but 2015/2016 we’re set and will have a conservative government
for a number of terms.]
Just one word to describe this – delusional.