UPDATE (Essential and Morgan): The fortnightly Morgan multi-mode poll, conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3019 by face-to-face and SMS, shows little change on the primary vote, with the Coalition up half a point to 39.5%, Labor down one to 37%, the Greens up one to 11.5% and the Palmer United Party down half a point to 3%. Labor’s lead is up half a point on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 52.5-47.5 to 53-47, but the precise opposite happens on the previous election preferences measure. Today’s Essential Research moves a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. See bottom of post for further details.
GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest monthly ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted for the Seven Network gives Labor its biggest post-election lead to date, up to 53-47 from 52-48 in the December 15 poll. Primary votes are Coalition 39.8%, down from 41.4%; Labor 40.6%, up from 40.4%; and Greens 9.1%, up from 8.7%. The poll also has 20.3% reporting being better off since a year ago compared with 39.3% for worse off and 40.4% for neither. Prospectively, 23.5% expect to be better off in a year, 39.4% worse off and 37.1% neither. On the economy as a whole, 34.9% think it headed in the right direction and 39.3% in the wrong direction, with 25.8% undecided. A very similar question from Essential Research last week had 38% rating the economy as heading in the right direction versus 33% for the wrong direction, which while better than the ReachTEL results was a substantial deterioration on post-election findings which had it at 44% and 27%. These figures here courtesy of Ryan Moore on Twitter.
The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 3547. Full results will be available on the ReachTEL site tomorrow, which will apparently include personal ratings that have Tony Abbott up and Bill Shorten down. Stay tuned tomorrow for the weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Morgan.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Crikey reports Essential Research has moved a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. Also featured: privatisation deemed a bad idea by 59%, including 69% for Australia Post and 64% for the ABC and SBS; 24% think we spend too much on welfare, 41% too little and 27% about right; 64% believe the age pension too low, but only 27% think the same about unemployment benefits; 78% believe alcohol-related violence is getting worse, and perhaps also everything they see in the news media; “87% support harsher mandatory sentences for alcohol-related assaults; over 60% support earlier closing times for bottle shops, pubs and clubs; 76% support lockouts and 59% support lifting the age at which you can buy alcohol”. UPDATE: Full report here.
Diogenes #93
Logically, a good approval rating would increase the PV/2PP.
Chronic medical conditions can include things like type 2 diabetes and hypertension, which if properly treated and kept under control do not normally cause disability (except possibly for heavy physical work). Usually the affected person, unless they suffer complications at a relatively young age, can keep working to pension age. It is not correct (or at least not a complete description of someone’s situation) to describe a person with a disability as having a ‘medical condition’.
People talking about shorten not connecting reminds me of the dying days of the Howard government when Dennis Shanahan would plum the depths of the latest newspoll to find some demographic where Howard and /or the Tories had improved and declare all was not lost. We all know how that ended and six years later iShanahan is still in the same job. there was that crikey rumour around last week that he might be leaving the Australian, did anybody see any more on that.
On the Polls, how usual is it for a first term Government to have such poor polling so quickly into said first term ?
How long will the Liberal Hierarchy put up with such sustained poor polling before taking (“drastic”) action ?
rossmcg,
He was being transferred to the astrology section of News. But all the wizards and withches wouldn’t have him because he gave the prediction industry a bad name.
[In Newspoll this last happened in July 2010 (Gillard honeymoon poll), before that in March 2010.]
Thanks.
Nearly four years. Certainly a very long unbroken run of polling dominance.
Though how deserved is open to question, particularly given how fast the Libs lost it once in power, with nowhere left hide and nobody else to blame.
Tends to add weight to the argument that the endless ALP leadershit was the main factor in that run.
Here’s the link:
[Labor says a new offence of causing death by assault would attract a maximum 20-year-jail term.]
I think the political class is generally not so foolish as to provide something too specific.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-27/victorian-opposition-proposes-new-one-punch-death-law-if-it-win/5220296
Confessions,
Don’t know, but sounds like a juicy dissentation topic 😛
I’m not sure when it was implemented in WA, but I would think fairly recent (within 2 years), and so may be difficult to quantify, as I would think re-offending would be something that would have to be included in a study.
Rex,
Sorry if that came out a bit too snappy 🙂
YB,
Howard struggled through most of his first term and nearly lost in 98. However, Abbott has certainly incinerated his political popularity at a rate that has everybody scratching their heads.
I have no evidence-based view on the one punch laws – am not a lawyer or an expert on the criminal justice system, but am quite happy to accept the opinions of those who have such experience.
It would be nice to know whether such laws have had any effect in locally-based settings, or even internationally. If not, then I’m happy to lump them alongside Barnett’s stupid shark cull program: reactionary, populist and regressive.
[Nearly four years.]
Probably more like 3.5 years.
Bugler:
Thanks. I have to say that I’m not a fan of mandatory sentencing.
If sample size was 3,500 then margin of error is about 1.7%.
The election is nearly 3 years away but leading is better than not leading. Maybe it wi make Abbott and. Co think twice before going to far with their Thatcherite program. After all, the voters who crossed to the dark side wanted the boats stopped, an end to leadership soap opera and lower electricity bills. Few wanted to dismantle Medicare, or have their wages cut.
YB
[How long will the Liberal Hierarchy put up with such sustained poor polling before taking (“drastic”) action ?]
About ten minutes after they discover someone they can live with who is neither Abbott nor Turnbull.
Poroti re post-1945 Welfare state
______________________
You make a good point
I have just read”Paris after the Liberation” and in the first post-Liberation election in France..,the largest numkber of vote/seats went to the Communist Party with 36%…the Socialists with 20% came next..and a spate of centre parties followed..the right was destroyed because many had sided with Vichy ands the Nazis
De Gaulle had promised an all-party National Govt and he kept the promise. The CP wanted a left-gvernment as a prelude to power
They got a swag of cabinet posts and the Dpt PM..and De Gaulle saw that only a left policy would arrest their rise…based on their wartime role in the Resistance and the heroic role of the Red Army in defeating Hitler
So he got a Socialist PM and initiated a welfare state like that in Britain under Athlee’s Labour Govt and in a way
This happened over much of Europe
So the welfare state was a remedy against Communist advances
in that post-war time
[I don’t want to be a party pooper, but is it likely that a poll taken over a long weekend would tend to skew to Labor?]
No, because it was conducted on Thursday.
Hands up anyone surprised. ……….Nobody ? Good.
[Jobs figures looking good for Coalition’s new lobbyists
Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s insistence that Australia is ”open for business” is being embraced by lobbyists, with dozens of the biggest companies having signed up to Coalition-aligned influence peddlers already this year for representation in Canberra.
The torrent of activity in the increasingly partisan lobbying industry has in turn sparked a mini jobs boom for former Howard government ministers, retired Coalition MPs and Liberal operatives.
Nick Minchin, the Howard-era finance minister, has joined Alexander Downer at Bespoke Approach whose client list includes Wesfarmers, coal seam gas miner Santos and Chinese-owned coal miner Yancoal.
Former treasurer Peter Costello co-owns Melbourne-based ECG Advisory Solutions with his one time political adviser David Gazard. ECG has Westpac, Transurban and detention centre operators Serco on its books]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/jobs-figures-looking-good-for-coalitions-new-lobbyists-20140126-31gvg.html#ixzz2raefQgR3
Sorry, taken the dogs outside, Stephen Fry came on the tele and my sister was telling me in depth about how I should watch Frozen
GG,
Generally agree. However, straying into opinion territory, I think most offenders can be rehabilitated but the public and the politicians lack the stomach and concentration to implement something effective (One could cynically argue that crime is at the perfect levels to be politically convenient, low enough that it doesn’t cause so much trouble but high enough to make it an issue for people to pretend to do something about it).
Confessions,
I am generally opposed to the sort of “blunt instrument” approaches, on principal and because of lack of evidence. I can be convinced if the evidence is there. However, as with most things, the heavy handed political solution isn’t usually the best.
One would assume SH-Y will finally challenge for a leadership position in the Greens Party in the near future ?
There have been very few Newspolls published since the election.
From the Newspoll site: “Federal voting intention and leaders’ ratings”
[10/12/13
26/11/13
12/11/13
29/10/13]
http://www.newspoll.com.au/opinion-polls-2/opinion-polls-2/
Work for the Dole….maintenance, repairs, gardening at aged care places.
Who says they have the skills?
And what will the private owner pay to have this cheap labour?
Which Liberal MP’s own an aged care facility?
For those on the “politics is everything” brigade, I also think this is politically unsound suggestion by Vic Labor as it’s an issue that the Liberals have an upper hand
Fran @113,
Agree totally 🙂 .
34
I had mentioned economic policy change, just not that particular effect by name.
Thee has been a little to much emphasis on inflation control because of the oil shock stagflation.
Fran Barlow@113
Which begs another question, why the hatred of Turnbull amongst the Tories ?
Turnbull is seemingly popular amongst the masses, why not swallow their pride if it leads to some sort of sustained electoral success ?
” Shortens fall in approval suggests he’s failing to connect with the casual observer.
ALPs lead should be greater.”
Hi Sean
Don’t get downhearted about the 2pp: it’s to be expected, like I said before we’re in the bottom
of the mining downswing, the $AUD is unstable and worryingly USA and China economies are troubling.
(and we can’t get of those damn carton and mining taxes because the ALP/Greens are obstructive on purpose).
Sean, Tony Abbott is now a popular PM. He’s respected and trusted. This is all good and very important.
Mr Shorten is not cutting through.
Remember, 2014 will be ups and downs but 2015/2016 we’re set and will have a conservative government
for a number of terms.
Don’t fret, Sean.
Rex Douglas@101
Not reliably. The relationship between Opposition Leader ratings and voting intention exists but it is weak. Tends to be drowned out by other forces a lot of the time.
92
The ALP are not proposing increased maximum sentences. They are proposing a new offence of “assault causing death” (or thereabouts) with the same maximum sentence (level 3 imprisonment (20 years)) as manslaughter.
[However, as with most things, the heavy handed political solution isn’t usually the best.]
Hell yeah. Can’t disagree with you on that.
GG.
[(Dennis Shanahan) was being transferred to the astrology section of News. But all the wizards and withches wouldn’t have him because he gave the prediction industry a bad name.]
LOL,
Like this turkey:
http://scenecreek.com/features/good-scenes-come-to-those-who-wait/attachment/gilderoy-lockhart-harry-potter/
By John Menadue
Posted 8 hours 31 minutes ago
The appointment of a former military opponent of Indonesia as the Queen’s representative in Australia would not help improve the fractured bilateral relationship, writes John Menadue.
Could we do more to offend the Indonesians? Yes, I think we could, by appointing, as has been suggested, Peter Cosgrove as our next governor general.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-27/menadue-is-another-indonesia-faux-pas-imminent/5220544
Re Jakarta Newspapers
_______________
If you want to muddy further Abbott Indonesian waters you might try as I have started to do…write to either of the English language newspapers there and state a few home truth to Indonesians readers
Like the way in which an islamophobe like Bernardi was until recently Abbott’s Parlt Secretary…or the similar stuff in Websites like “Menzies House” which is always running an anti-islamic rant
They will be shocked to know I suspect
These papers publish letters and may even take articles from our local press…..Menzies House will shock them
None will make Abbott more loved there
I also have a grand-daughter who is a brilliant Indonesian language scholar and has completed Year 12(after 9 years since Gr 3) and will do further Uni studies on the language
She is helping translate stuff for me to lob into the Indonesian press
Have a go and see
Daily Jakarta papers… The Jakarta Post .com.
………………………The Jakarta Globe.com
Yesiree Bob@104
At federal level it has never happened before. That said we only have early-term polling for six previous first-term governments.
Pretty person
[and we can’t get of those damn carton and mining taxes because the ALP/Greens are obstructive on purpose).]
Why shouldn’t these, very large companies, pay for the pollution they produce and environmental destruction that they wreck ?
Moreover, why shouldn’t they pay for our resources that they, at the moment, exploit for their profit, at our expense.
It’s not their resources, ITS OURS !!!!.
Abbott continues to parade his stupidity on the world stage…what an embarrassment he is, he is so stupid he believes the international community will believe his lies
Abbott’s speech confirmed the nagging suspicions many have had since he assumed the prime ministership, following one of the most manipulated media campaigns in any democracy in living memory.
It repeated all the trite slogans that worked in Western Sydney:
“You can’t spend what you haven’t got.”
“Markets are the proven answer to the problem of scarcity.”
“No country has ever taxed or subsidised its way to prosperity.”
Two stupidities.
First, it was precisely that extensive rapid spending through the GFC which saw Australia rise from 10th-ranked economy in 2007 to the world’s top ranking by 2012, a reality all those present with an awareness of the G20 economies would have known.
Secondly, attacks on domestic opponents are never acceptable abroad.
In New York last October, Abbott was roundly condemned for a political attack on Kevin Rudd.
American Academic Clinton Fernandes said he created an image of
“… coarseness, amateurishness and viciousness.”
Political scientist Norman Ornstein surmised:
“Perhaps you can chalk it up to a rookie mistake. But it is a pretty big one.”
Clearly, Abbott has learned nothing from that humiliation three months ago.
Abbott then continued to spruik domestic politics — the commission of audit, paid parental leave, cutting the numbers of pensioners, and infrastructure, especially roads:
“… because time spent in traffic jams is time lost from work and family.”
He concluded with a final hypocrisy — following his attack on Labor for spending so much on infrastructure during the GFC.
He gobsmacked anyone still listening with this:
“Then, there’s the worldwide ‘infrastructure deficit’, with the OECD estimating that over 50 trillion dollars in infrastructure investment is needed by 2030.”
[Tony Abbott is now a popular PM. He’s respected and trusted]
HA HA HA HA HA HA Jeepers, don’t you just love satire from people that don’t even realise that they are being satirical ?
Tom,
I was probably too broad in my original explanation, yes (hence the linking, so people can keep me and my opinions in check). I can’t see that it detracts from my point, though.
Also Sean
I note conservatives are having kittens about the add-on to the Constitution regarding acknowledging the original inhabitants.
Gee – where’s the loyalty?!!
It’s a good thing, as it recognises our heritages in every sense.
When people say it won’t help the disadvantage Aboriginals (still!) suffer – that’s true, but this is about
a bringing together. Mr Rudd’s apology was excellent and beautiful, and altering the Constitutional is just
an administrative action. Trust in Tony Abbott, all will be good.
YB @123: Which begs another question, why the hatred of Turnbull amongst the Tories
Because Malolm Turnbull is a (small ‘l’) liberal or the closest approach to one in a party of the hard right. He also believes we should be doing something about climate change. He is still as far as I know a republican. He has as much chance of leading the ‘Liberal’ party in the future as I have.
Deblonay
[I also have a grand-daughter who is a brilliant Indonesian language scholar and has completed Year 12(after 9 years since Gr 3) and will do further Uni studies on the language
She is helping translate stuff for me to lob into the Indonesian press]
You probably already know about this, but Wikipedia has an article listing a host of Indonesian newspapers published in Indonesian, English and other languages.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_newspapers_in_Indonesia
I could have sworn I read “ShowsOn” instead of “prettyone”.
The Libs might hate Turnbull. They might distrust his social policies. They may even despise his positions on climate change and homosexual marriage.
However, if Abbott’s leadership becomes terminal, they will embrace him with open arms. Never ever get between the Libs and their White Ministerial Cars.
Diogenes #88
“Disabilities are medical conditions which may fluctuate.
However most medical conditions are disabilities.”
Both these statements are incorrect ……. I suggest you test both statements with a colleague who actually has knowledge of disabilities.
Mild intellectual disability is not a medical condition ….. It neither arises “medically” nor requires “medical” treatment. Similarly loss of an arm in a workplace chain saw accident creates a disability, which although it may need acute medical treatment in the immediate term, is not in the long term a matter of medicine (my father’s brother, a war amputee needed no medical treatment vis a vis his leg, for the next 55 years of his life.)
Conversely, regarding your second sentence, I suggest that you refer your next appendectomy patient to the NDIS, or your next cholecystectomy patient. Good luck with that.
Spoke to an elderly bluerinse lib diehard on the north shore this afternoon and she was super unimpressed with Tone. Scoffed at the notion that naval boats accidentally went into Indonesian waters. I doubled down by mentioning Christopher Pine and got a scowl. Tone is shoring up his bogan base and losing everybody else. No way to win an election.
The question is not whether present polling means anything. The question is whether Tone and his motley crew can lift their act. There are absolutely no signs they can, which means they are odds on to be onetermers.
[I could have sworn I read “ShowsOn” instead of “prettyone”.]
No liberally interspersed ‘MOFO’ among the sentences.
GG – I agree. But I really doubt Turnbull would be much of a saviour. He would just expose the divisions and cynicism of his party.
So f ucking what?
@prettyone/136
You are complete idiot to trust a Coalition Party PM, let alone any other PM.
Everyone remembers the hatred that Howard bring in when he was watering down the entitlement act’s.
Abbott is favored by Howard himself.
Anyhoo, don’t blame me, I voted Labor
prettyone – writing notes to self (Sean)
@GG/140
Which are now bulletproof BMW’s.
Back in my previous life I worked in a fairly sporting office and we would run a sweep on just about anything.
Two bucks in and pick the winner and margin sort of stuff.
Perhaps we could have one here, without the two bucks. Who will be the first press gallery hack to write a leadership yarn this year and will it be Labor or Tory?