ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

The monthly ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network gives Labor its biggest post-election lead to date, the slow-moving Essential Research also ticks a point in Labor’s favour, and Morgan records little change.

UPDATE (Essential and Morgan): The fortnightly Morgan multi-mode poll, conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3019 by face-to-face and SMS, shows little change on the primary vote, with the Coalition up half a point to 39.5%, Labor down one to 37%, the Greens up one to 11.5% and the Palmer United Party down half a point to 3%. Labor’s lead is up half a point on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 52.5-47.5 to 53-47, but the precise opposite happens on the previous election preferences measure. Today’s Essential Research moves a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. See bottom of post for further details.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest monthly ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted for the Seven Network gives Labor its biggest post-election lead to date, up to 53-47 from 52-48 in the December 15 poll. Primary votes are Coalition 39.8%, down from 41.4%; Labor 40.6%, up from 40.4%; and Greens 9.1%, up from 8.7%. The poll also has 20.3% reporting being better off since a year ago compared with 39.3% for worse off and 40.4% for neither. Prospectively, 23.5% expect to be better off in a year, 39.4% worse off and 37.1% neither. On the economy as a whole, 34.9% think it headed in the right direction and 39.3% in the wrong direction, with 25.8% undecided. A very similar question from Essential Research last week had 38% rating the economy as heading in the right direction versus 33% for the wrong direction, which while better than the ReachTEL results was a substantial deterioration on post-election findings which had it at 44% and 27%. These figures here courtesy of Ryan Moore on Twitter.

The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 3547. Full results will be available on the ReachTEL site tomorrow, which will apparently include personal ratings that have Tony Abbott up and Bill Shorten down. Stay tuned tomorrow for the weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Morgan.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Crikey reports Essential Research has moved a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. Also featured: privatisation deemed a bad idea by 59%, including 69% for Australia Post and 64% for the ABC and SBS; 24% think we spend too much on welfare, 41% too little and 27% about right; 64% believe the age pension too low, but only 27% think the same about unemployment benefits; 78% believe alcohol-related violence is getting worse, and perhaps also everything they see in the news media; “87% support harsher mandatory sentences for alcohol-related assaults; over 60% support earlier closing times for bottle shops, pubs and clubs; 76% support lockouts and 59% support lifting the age at which you can buy alcohol”. UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,159 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  4. From last thread

    Personally, I prefer the current s128 provision, though it’s still not good. I’d prefer a simple Australia votes as a single electoral division model. I’d also like it to be possible for voters to rank similar proposals much as preferential voting allows people to rank candidates.

    There should also be scope for voters to indicate why they made the choices they did in a simple multiple choice format. That would give those with a stake in the matter guidance on the outcome if it failed or passed with some reservations.

  5. From previous thread.

    Apologies if already posted.

    [a message that International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde was hammering home in Davos.

    “Business and political leaders at the World Economic Forum should remember that in far too many countries the benefits of growth are being enjoyed by far too few people. This is not a recipe for stability and sustainability,” she said.

    It is telling to contrast this with comments by Prime Minister Tony Abbott at the same event. He avoided endorsing calls for a focus on inequality above and beyond economic growth, saying: ”As always, stronger economic growth is the key to addressing almost every global problem.”

    This is not some isolated quote; it reflects the government’s economic philosophy. His primary message for the leaders at Davos was to choose policies that made way for business and to avoid “government-knows-best action”.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/advance-australia-fair-maybe-not-20140126-31gpz.html#ixzz2ra5ZQE9K

  7. On primaries looks like there were modest gains for Labor and Greens, and a modest fall for Coalition — less than 0.5 points in each case…

    They also said something about Abbott’s approval figures improving and Shorten’s worsening without giving numbers.

    Watching Seven News Sydney is an eye-opener – so much violent crime is reported as headlines… it’s “action news” as the Yanks used to say.

  10. William Bowe
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 6:23 pm | PERMALINK
    Any time is a great time to log on to PB, Mari.

    Touche William 😀

  11. Darren Laver
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 6:26 pm | PERMALINK
    Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 6:23 pm | PERMALINK
    Any time is a great time to log on to PB, Mari.

    True!

    Of course Darren, but some times are better than others and this is one 🙂

  12. From article posted by victoria -Stop the boats asylum seeker policy ‘morally corrupt and indefensible’, former Navy officer says

    [(retired RAN Captain John Ingram)

    “We’ve painted ourselves into a corner. We need an honourable way out. And we need a way out very soon.”]

  13. mikehilliard

    [This is not a recipe for stability and sustainability,” ]

    As I’ve mentioned several times before. JK Galbraith, who was there, said the post war push for the welfare state was not for the benefit of the poor. It was for the benefit of the “elites”. They being the ones who saw an incredible destruction of wealth during and after the war. Virtually total behind the iron Curtain.

    The theory was that it was the poverty of the 20’s + 30’s which made extreme politics attractive to the masses. So if a system was set up to prevent people falling in to such depths of poverty then they would not be attracted to extreme politics/ideologies.

    The 1% seem to have forgotten that.

  16. poroti

    On that, I once heard a senior New York policeman being interviewed on the radio.

    He said wtte of “When I saw how generous your welfare policies were, I wondered why anybody worked. And then I saw your crime stats, and I’m a convert.”

  17. Work for the dole was a failure.

    A Conclusion in a report on abbott and his attitude to his welfare wording .

    Conclusion

    Most leading government figures including John Howard and PeterCostello favor some retrenchment of the welfare state. However,their agendas seem to be moderated by broader political andelectoral pragmatism.In contrast, Tony Abbott’s attack on the welfare state isdriven by an unqualified belief in neoliberal agendas andsolutions. Abbott’s objective is to redefine unemployment assolely a matter of personal motivation and character, ratherthan as a broader question of government policy and societalstructures. The solution being to remove the welfare safety netso as to encourage and ultimately bully the unemployed intoaccepting whatever jobs may be available

  18. Work for the dole might work if it was a real placement in which a person gained exposure to their preferred career.

    For example if interested in health care then a month in a hospital might have some benefit.

  20. Zoomster

    Brilliant and exactly so. What is going to happen in the US when millions, thanks to the Repugnants , lose their food stamps this year ? Starve or steal ? I know what I’d pick.

  23. Yes the silly Repubs, lock the unemployed out of the economy only hurts you economically and socially but yeah they clearly don’t have a clue.

  24. Clearly those who think any job is good enough don’t have much H.R or recruitment experience as any one with such experience will tell you that the job title is pretty important at determining the roles open to you.

  26. 17
    Schnappi

    We have had nearly of 70 years of social insurance mediated by the Commonwealth. It’s hardly generous, but it does work and it has served the community, its most disadvantaged members and the economy for a long time. The LNP seem to wish to undo this for no good reason – perhaps simply to extinguish Chifley’s light on the hill once and for all, to confront Labor and to punish those who support them.

  31. victoria@568

    A retired senior Royal Australian Navy (RAN) officer has hit out at the Federal Government’s stop the boats policy as “morally corrupt and totally indefensible”.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-27/coalition-boats-policy-morally-indefensible-says-john-ingram/5220886

    I would be amazed if there are not a lot more RAN personnel, retired and active who feel the same way.

    abbott playing with fire. Deaths can easily occur to our service people as well as the AS in the high risk circumstances this has all become. Damaging the ADF’s hard earnt reputation too boot and politicising them as well.

    Not that it worries abbott & morrison, atm anyway.

  33. Thanks William. I think Bemused sort of tried to explain that to me the other night but I didn’t quite get what he was talking about.

  34. In the discussion here (now on the previous thread) of unemployment, no-one has mentioned the NAIRU – the “Non Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment”. Until the 1970’s, the economic policy settings of Australia and similar countries were aimed at maintaining full employment. The rise of neoliberal economics saw the emphasis change, and the primary task of central banks became, and remains, to keep inflation at a low level. In the theory they use, if unemployment drops below the NAIRU it is a sign that the economy is overheating and inflation will rise, so they must raise interest rates until the extra employment goes away.

    This means that government policy deliberately maintains unemployment at or around the NAIRU, and this rate is redefined as “full employment”, throwing one person in 20 under the bus and defining them out of existence. Government policy does not make any particular person unemployed, but it does ensure that somebody will be. Since the choice of who gets employment is left almost entirely to the free market, mostly the same groups of people will be regarded as the least desirable employees, and will remain unemployed for long periods.

    It may really be necessary for the health of the economy to maintain a pool of unemployed, but if that is so, the people subsisting on tiny incomes should be thanked for their contribution, not stigmatised so as to make their life even more difficult. there should also be more effort to share unemployment around, rather than have it always fall to the same people.

    This is not a partisan issue; both parties have the same policies in this area. I generally liked and admired Gillard, but when questioned about the inadequacy of the Newstart Allowance, she mumbled the Tory line about the best welfare being a job, and went on with insulting rubbish about kids needing to see their parents going to work. The insinuation is that unemployment is the fault of the unemployed. I maintain that it is immoral to call someone a bludger until you have offered them a job and they have refused it.

    Thanks to Himi ( I think) for the link to Bill Mitchell’s blog; his “Job Guarantee” idea
    http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?cat=23
    is about the best suggestion for addressing these problems that I have come across.

  37. Thanks again William – I forgot about the Morgan. But I was really wanting to know how far back before that we have to go to get a 53-47 to Labor.

  39. Abbott’s rating has improved, Shorten’s rating has fallen.

    Also some stuff on the public’s predictions on the economy. Mostly gloomy

  40. MagicPudding

    +100 Darn right. It was all about “slaying” the inflation dragon. The first and second oil crisies were most excellent excuses for them to push their barrow.

  42. Ryan Moore ‏@mooreryan3 1m
    #Reachtel Poll Australian Economy: Right direction 34.9 Wrong direction 39.3 Undecided 25.8 #auspol

    Ryan Moore ‏@mooreryan3 2m
    #Reachtel Poll Financial position this year: Better off 20.3 Worse off 39.3 Undecided 40.4 #auspol

  43. [Where did “Edward” go for his/her sex change. Did he/she get a government rebate?]

    She might be transgender (i.e. identifies as a female, but is biologically male) and therefore didn’t need a sex change.

  45. Its hard to be an opinion leader but I take up the challenge with relish.

    Good to see the Liberals under pressure – there not worth a crumpet if they cant deal with the pressure of governing and the viccisitudes of opinion polls.

  46. I know that Polls today are no guide to an election in 2.5 years time but it gladdens my heart

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 48m
    #ReachTEL Poll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (-1) ALP 53 (+1) #auspo

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 5m
    #ReachTEL Poll Primary Votes: L/NP 39.8 (-1.6) ALP 40.6 (+0.2) GRN 9.1 (+0.4) #auspol

  47. I see channel 7 had to dig to the bottom of the stats barrel in news tonight. They said Abbott will be pleased that his disapproval rating has gone down while Shorten’s as gone up. Probably all within the MOE anyway.
    😆

  50. Thanks AC. I missed that announcement. I guess it IS something of a bomb shell.

    These changes of gender are not as rare as one might think. I had one in my circle of friends a few years ago. It seemed really weird at the time but we all got used to it after a while and it seems to have been successful for the individual involved.

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