UPDATE (Essential and Morgan): The fortnightly Morgan multi-mode poll, conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3019 by face-to-face and SMS, shows little change on the primary vote, with the Coalition up half a point to 39.5%, Labor down one to 37%, the Greens up one to 11.5% and the Palmer United Party down half a point to 3%. Labor’s lead is up half a point on the headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, from 52.5-47.5 to 53-47, but the precise opposite happens on the previous election preferences measure. Today’s Essential Research moves a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. See bottom of post for further details.
GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest monthly ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted for the Seven Network gives Labor its biggest post-election lead to date, up to 53-47 from 52-48 in the December 15 poll. Primary votes are Coalition 39.8%, down from 41.4%; Labor 40.6%, up from 40.4%; and Greens 9.1%, up from 8.7%. The poll also has 20.3% reporting being better off since a year ago compared with 39.3% for worse off and 40.4% for neither. Prospectively, 23.5% expect to be better off in a year, 39.4% worse off and 37.1% neither. On the economy as a whole, 34.9% think it headed in the right direction and 39.3% in the wrong direction, with 25.8% undecided. A very similar question from Essential Research last week had 38% rating the economy as heading in the right direction versus 33% for the wrong direction, which while better than the ReachTEL results was a substantial deterioration on post-election findings which had it at 44% and 27%. These figures here courtesy of Ryan Moore on Twitter.
The poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 3547. Full results will be available on the ReachTEL site tomorrow, which will apparently include personal ratings that have Tony Abbott up and Bill Shorten down. Stay tuned tomorrow for the weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Morgan.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Crikey reports Essential Research has moved a point in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, which is now at 50-50. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 42% and Labor to 36%, with the Greens and the Palmer United Party steady on 9% and 4%. Also featured: privatisation deemed a bad idea by 59%, including 69% for Australia Post and 64% for the ABC and SBS; 24% think we spend too much on welfare, 41% too little and 27% about right; 64% believe the age pension too low, but only 27% think the same about unemployment benefits; 78% believe alcohol-related violence is getting worse, and perhaps also everything they see in the news media; “87% support harsher mandatory sentences for alcohol-related assaults; over 60% support earlier closing times for bottle shops, pubs and clubs; 76% support lockouts and 59% support lifting the age at which you can buy alcohol”. UPDATE: Full report here.
Bemused back at 526 in the previous thread – interesting link to Michael Spence’s article. Some Government leadership / public investment being needed to grow employment. Free markets on their own can’t do it.
The nice thing about the these polls (it being too far out in the cycle to really be of much use federally) is that they must be scaring the cr*p out of those Liberal Opposition leaders facing a state election this year.
Been cruising, up til now — but now voters are being reminded, thanks to dear Tony, that what Liberals promise and what they deliver are very often vastly different things…
zoomster
Also explains no Abbott in Griffith and the panic attempts to try avoid a Senate election in WA
Just checked the available primaries to see what they come out to as a decimal 2PP (because ReachTEL rounds the 2PP) but I get 53.0-47.0 on my formula for that anyway.
As the current Morgan series appear skewed to Labor this is the worst poll for the Abbott government so far.
There is also the Senate re-run in WA which might also be worrying the coalition in terms of these polls.
I hope some detail William is getting will be what people think is more important stopping boats or avoiding war with Indonesia
Shortens fall in approval suggests he’s failing to connect with the casual observer.
ALPs lead should be greater.
From the other thread:
@guytaur/422
yup sums up Coalition Party Work For Dole, requires a job in the first place.
581
zoidlord
Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 7:30 pm | Permalink
The talk of number of hours that a person on DSP can do is useless, it’s the participation rate that is important.
This is just a guess: Abbott has already been around for 4 years as opposition leader and he’s had a public profile since around 2001. I reckon people are sick and tired of him already. He has no story to relate with and it’s all process like Gillard. The only difference is his process stuff is ideological rather than pragmatic (which gives him more of a base to play with).
We’ll see if that plays out over the next few months or so
[Rex Douglas
Posted Monday, January 27, 2014 at 7:33 pm | Permalink
Shortens fall in approval suggests he’s failing to connect with the casual observer.
ALPs lead should be greater.]
I get the impression Rex that you’d still be complaining if it was 55-45.
Darn,
What do you suggest is the reason for Shortens fall in approval ?
Magic Pudding @34:
I discovered Bill Mitchell’s blog via (I think) Victoria, and I’ve been quite impressed by the stuff I’ve read there. I was asking about MMT because it almost seems too good to be true – a branch of economics that seems like it has potential to not only provide real predictive power, but also supports a whole lot of progressive shibboleths.
The job guarantee is a really really wonderful idea to my mind. Much better than current unemployment policies, more humane, and more economically sensible. Sadly, it’s probably politically impossible, at least in this country. Maybe after the next revolution against the 0.1% . . .
himi
Rex Douglas
Wait until we see figures. If MOE its no change.
William and Kevin
I don’t want to be a party pooper, but is it likely that a poll taken over a long weekend would tend to skew to Labor?
[Rex Douglas: Shortens fall in approval suggests he’s failing to connect with the casual observer.]
I did a straw poll the other day and it turns out that he isn’t connecting with people sitting on park benches, hosing their front yards or wearing sandwich boards either. All of them are pretty casual also.
Next week, I might try asking the pretty vacant. 😉
In regards to new ReachTel poll, I’m not surprised, simply because it is not just Abbott that is the problem, it’s the Coalition Party.
Out of Touch, Out of Ideas, this government has done zero to help the jobs or the economy that it so said it will help to fix.
Should be noted that ReachTEL don’t provide approval ratings as such. They are performance ratings: very good, good, satisfactory, poor, very poor. Now while the poor and very poor are clearly disapprovals and the very good and good are clearly approvals, the “satisfactory” term is ambiguous – it can be taken as neutral or positive. By comparison with other polls I think about half of those who say “satisfactory” would also say “approve”.
[Primary vote: Coalition 39.8, Labor 40.6]
Must be while since the LNP primary vote has been below both 40 and Labor’s primary.
Re Schnappi @17: The solution being to remove the welfare safety net so as to encourage and ultimately bully the unemployed intoaccepting whatever jobs may be available
And there’s the rub – what jobs? The unemployed are unemployed because the jobs aren’t there. There can’t be many people who want to try to live on $250 while being made to go through a sorts of hoops for the privilege. The neoliberal solution is to eliminate the minimum wage. And where will these people working full time for $250 per week live? In shanty towns in the fringes of our cities like in the third world?
100 days of boats and not supporting jobs as in Holden has produced these results.
When are journalists going to ask was the Howard win 9/11 not boats?
How many people were polled in this Reachtel?
Just Me@68
In Newspoll this last happened in July 2010 (Gillard honeymoon poll), before that in March 2010.
Kevin Bonham@67
“Satisfactory” definitely seems like a positive, though not strongly positive. It might be equated with a passing grade – good enough, though not worthy of extra praise.
himi
What an aussie legend !
Dilgenes
“medical condition” and “disability” are not synonymous terms.
The demography which mainly uses the terms interchangeably, and thus to many persons with a disability insultingly, is medicos.”
Who said they were synonymous?
Youused them synonymously at #502 in the previous thread in the discussion about the Disability Pension.
poroti@44
Not funny, Poroti.
#75
Sorry …….big fingers, little iPhone.
Should be “Diogenes”.
Vic Opposition have promised to propose “one punch” laws. I have to say I’m a little disappointed and a little surprised as they’re electorally unnecessary and the issue would likely have disappeared before the election, and the proposed laws don’t achieve or really do anything. I don’t know how wise it is for Labor to make law and order an issue, especially so late in the cycle when they’re doing so well because of other issues. If anything, it gives the Liberals a chance to discuss what little they have done.
I hate to be one of those people, but… *test*
… and this is why I’m not in IT
@SwannyQLD: As @NYTimeskrugman says, the right use debt obsession to slash social programs #thatsjustwhattheydo http://t.co/SsfgngqeRH
[Shortens fall in approval suggests he’s failing to connect with the casual observer.
ALPs lead should be greater.]
You have got to be drunk still, that is a Sean silly post.
One thing we can conclude. The trend is still going towards Labor not away.
Bugler #78
Harsh deterrents are needed.
Bugler
Re “One Punch ” laws. Ya reckon the lawyers might argue 2,3,4 punches were thrown ?
Confessions
The sample was 3500
WWP #82
If Shorten was connecting, his approval wouldn’t be stagnating.
psyclaw
Disabilities are medical conditions which may fluctuate.
However most medical conditions are disabilities.
Rex Douglas.
You do not know that. We have not seen the figures.
The last time I think Labor polled 53:47 was in the early part of 2010 before Labour announced that it was postponing a response to the ‘greatest moral challenge of our time’. That seemed to be the turning point.
As Kevin Bonham @67 notes, ReachTEL’s personal ratings are a bit different to other major pollsters. I wouldn’t pay much attention to them in regards to any movements one way or the other at this point.
Rex Douglas,
For starters, Labor is proposing increased maximum penalties, not increased penalties. Then, there’s the problem that the Liberals have already increased minimum sentences and reduced suspended sentences. Third, both approaches are bunkum for reasons I and other posters have outlined before. If you’re willing to read through studies, I can provide them. To use the most extreme examples, states in the US that have the death penalty by also have higher violent crime rates.
This “coward punch” episode is going to be remembered in the history of criminology and where governments say a lot but do nothing.
[If Shorten was connecting, his approval wouldn’t be stagnating.]
As long as Labor are winning the 2PP, Shorten’s approval means bugger all.
Bugler:
What penalties are Vic Labor proposing, if any to the so-called one-punch laws?
We have similar laws in WA, and I have no idea whether they’ve contributed to curbing the incidence of violent attacks in the Perth nightclub area which we were seeing a few years ago.
poroti
[
Re “One Punch ” laws. Ya reckon the lawyers might argue 2,3,4 punches were thrown ?]
Or a kick. Or a baseball bat. The possibilities are endless.
Bugler,
My #84 was just a general comment.
Thanks spur. 3500 is a hefty sample.
[Re “One Punch ” laws. Ya reckon the lawyers might argue 2,3,4 punches were thrown ?]
Has this been the case here with our laws?
Poroti,
Well, I could only at best give a bush lawyer opinion, and I can’t even say for sure if Labor actually intends, if it wins office, to implement them. I’m not certain this idea came from Andrews. I doubt they’ve formulated a full policy and are just “feeding the chooks”, i guess, or looking for a reaction and seeing how it goes from there.
P.S. When I finished HS I did apply for Arts/Law, but didn’t get a high enough score. When I got a good enough score to transfer to Arts/Law or Law I decided I was happy with what I was doing and went for the double major instead. (If I’m still unemployable after I finish, I guess a JD is always an option)
Bugler,
Agree. Young men have been punching on forever. Sure, you can reduce alchol availability. However you are never going to get rid of testorone, young men with a chip on their shoulder and smart arse teenagers that know just enough to talk themselves in to trouble.
These events occur, will continue to occcur and harsher penalties are not going to change a thing.