It’s been a disappointing week for poll junkies, with the phone pollsters including Newspoll evidently waiting until after the Australia Day long weekend before ending their New Year hibernation. Since this is an off-week in Morgan’s fortnightly cycle, that just leaves Essential Research. All told, there have only been three poll results published so far this year – two from Essential and one from Morgan – so you’re more than welcome to take BludgerTrack with a bigger-than-usual grain of salt for the time being. For what it’s worth though, the one new data point has driven the Coalition to a new low of 39.3% on the primary vote, and pushed Labor’s two-party lead to a new high of 52.5-47.5.
That might seem counter-intuitive given that the one new poll had the Coalition leading 51-49, but there are three factors which have made it otherwise. First, in adjusting the pollsters for their house biases, a unique approach has been adopted for Essential Research to acknowledge that its bias is in favour of stability, rather than one party or the other. For example, Essential overshot on the Labor vote during the election campaign as momentum swung towards the Coalition, but it’s been doing the opposite since the Coalition started heading south in November. So rather than the usual method of determining bias with reference to past performance in late-campaign polls, I’m plotting a trend of Essential’s deviation from BludgerTrack so its bias adjustments change dynamically over time. With Essential stuck at 51-49 to the Coalition while other pollsters are being fairly unanimous in having Labor leading 52-48, you can pretty much work out for yourself what the Essential bias adjustment currently looks like.
The second point is to do with rounding. While Essential’s two-party result was unchanged this week, the primary vote had the Coalition down two points, Labor down one and the Greens up one. Most of the time that would mean a one-point shift to Labor on two-party preferred, but this is one of those occasions where the shift went missing after the remainders were pared away. However, BludgerTrack doesn’t actually use pollsters’ published two-party results, instead determining primary vote totals and deriving a two-party result from them using 2013 election preferences. So the Essential result looks like a slight shift to Labor compared with last week, so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The third point is that Essential’s numbers are a two-week rolling average (though last week’s result, being the first from the year, was a sample for that week only), so any change that occurs in a given week is a bigger deal than the published numbers suggest.
So it is that BludgerTrack gives Labor a 0.5% gain on the two-party preferred projection and a boost of three on its seat tally. The state relativities haven’t changed much since last week, so the Labor seat gains are evenly spread, with one each provided by Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. Full results as always on the sidebar.
poroti@2248
Maybe it could be initiated on the day of the Griffith by-election – a fitting end point for the whole saga.
himi
himi
don’t want to reignite things, but a quick (and obviously not wholistic) answer to your repeated question is the one given by Andrew Elder — Gillard didn’t pander to the media. She didn’t leak to them. She didn’t confide her plans to them. She didn’t ‘owe’ her position to them.
Combine that with an attack of the guilts on the media’s part at their role in deposing Rudd (“Gee, we were only playing. We didn’t expect anyone would get hurt.”) and the threat that the NBN and reduced government advertising put to their jobs, and the reason for the media’s stance from 2010 on is clear.
BK
Noting:
(1) the thousands of accusations of violence by ADF members against other ADF members
(2) the latest revelations about serving defence force members being members also of the ADL which is associated with calls for violence against muslims
(3)the decades-long demonisation/dehumanisation of asylum seekers by the Liberals (they are illegals, they throw children into the water)
(4)that the Government has granted immunity to Operation Sovereign Borders staff, potentially giving criminals a free pass out of jail…
…I wonder whether Griggs, Morrison and Abbott will now publicly admit that it is at least possible that Navy personnel assaulted asylum seekers and that an investigation should be launched into how ten asylum seekers received burns and bruises?
For the love of god, can we please stop the KR/JG crap. It is nauseating and a waste of space.
All energies must be to rid this country of the fool we have currently as PM.
Went onto that right wing website Catallaxy. What is wrong with these people, why are the right so vitriol towards others – is it there DNA?
Now can someone please provide three social reforms over the past 40 years the Coalition has introduced.
One aspect of the Julia disaster rarely mentioned:
The night she was sworn in Christine Wallace who had been in her office for weeks researching her autobiography was interviewed on Sky and later ABC, backed up by Cheryl Kernot and giggled and gurgled that Tony Abbott would never be an effective Opposition Leader against her ….
because he was IN LOVE with her.
Given this was obviously the meme in Julia’s office and probably Julia’s own opinion, it was then I knew Labor was done for.
btw Within 6 months or so Wallace had abandoned the autobiography and Julia’s COS had left the office.
Rudd/G?
Meh. We got rid of one rotten apple. One to go. IMHO it is better to focus on the one on hand.
But I do acknowledge that one of the things that rotten apples excel at is causing shit on the liver.
Our current bad apple is causing wholesale shit on the liver all the way from Jakarta through Beijing to Geneva.
Sorry – that should be biography of course.
[Kirky
Posted Sunday, January 26, 2014 at 9:08 am | Permalink
…
Now can someone please provide three social reforms over the past 40 years the Coalition has introduced.
]
I was once of the view, Labor did social reform, the Liberals economic reform.
A more interesting challenge is to provide three worthwhile economic reforms introduced by the Liberals over the last 40 years. If you can’t come up with a list then the Liberals are nothin gmore than space holders while Labor regroup (get over the Rudd/Gillard thing for example).
Iran?
Yeah. Let’s invade it.
But I am getting sooooooooooo weary of us hanging grimly on the coat tails of Uncle Sam, invading evil empires, wrecking the joint, displacing millions of people, spending a trillion dollars – most of which goes into the pockets of corrupt cronies and defence companies – then retreating before any sort of stability can be assured, thereby leaving the natives to destroy each other some more, the state in ruins, and then bagging the lefties for the whole damn mess.
The nice thing is that it does not matter what Australians think and that a recent PEW poll found that 52% of Americans are sick of it as well.
Boerwar @ 2253
Yes, just wondering . . .
On the Rudd Gilllard thing.
Both did great things. The very first thing to learn from te mistakes of that period is disunity truly is death.
Labor under both PM’s made mistakes. I have no doubt under previous administrations to use an American term those mistakes would not have been fatal. This time however Murdoch was out for blood. The only period close to what we experienced is the coverage Whitlam received.
This started the day Howard was defeated. So do yourselves a favour. Learn the lessons of mistakes but do not forget to learn the lessons of success.
zoomster@2252
Thank you. That does go a long way towards explaining the media’s rejection of her. And of course in the chamber of mirrors that is the current media environment it wouldn’t take long for an initial period of something along the lines of “well, if you’re going to treat us like that, we’ll make /your/ life difficult” to become a self-sustaining cycle.
I’m still a bit lost about the reaction of some Labor people, but that’s probably something for the (possibly) upcoming Memorial Thread.
himi
Pom
[Landed in this great land this day in 1969.
Never regretted it for one moment.]
103 days ahead of me. The only time I regretted it was when I was caned at primary school. Before that the most extreme punishment I had received was a light open handed slap on the backside.
Someone yesterday — Frednk I think — asked about my initialism, MBCM. I’ve coined this to stand for “Mass Broadcast Commercial Media”.
Thank you. It was me.
Those stories about Japanese ‘fighting on’ because they did not know the war had finished are simply not credible.
But it suits them as individuals and it suits the militarists in Japan Japanese Government to pretend that they were continuing to hold out against the might of the US.
Here’s why it just does not add up:
(1) The Philippines jungles are not people-friendly at all. They could not possibly exist for decades without getting regular food, shelter, medicines and new clothes from other people.
(2) The hold-outs either had regular contact with, or lived with other people.
(3) Those other people had regular access to the outside world. Even the most remote Philippines mountain village has/had regular trade connections with lowlanders.
(4) Those people would have known perfectly well that the Pacific War had ended.
(5) Not one of Japanese hold outs took their weapons out and shot them off at the enemy.
Julia’s major problem, imo, was that she did not present herself from the outset as a woman of substance: aka Angela Merkel or Helen Clarke.
That Womans Weekly makeover turning her into a 30 something air head when added to belief that Tony Abbott was in lover with her, did not help.
By the time attempts were made to rectify the image problem, it was too late.
Morning all.
A dedicated Rudd/Gillard rehash thread? What a frickin great idea!
We could name it The Events of 2010 Revisited, and all those who feel like going through it all once wasn’t enough can continue to do it again and again and again.
A fabulous idea.
Yesterday The West trumpeted Barnett’s shark cull plan as commencing this weekend. But in what is now the govt’s trademark vacillation with this plan, it appears there is confusion about just where the drums will be located. More ‘clarifying’ to come from the govt, I would imagine.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-25/shark-drumlines/5218934?section=wa
This is what happens when you offer ill-thought-out populist ‘solutions’ in a bid to quell media hysteria.
Fran @ 2250 re the lamb ads by Sam Kekovich. He’s a very, very bright man, as you are probably aware. Much like Brent Croswell (of the same era), who is an incredibly eloquent man and prolific author.
Like you, though, I feel a little uneasy when seeing “Keka” dumbing himself down and appealing to the redneck lowest common denominator.
Clever ads, though.
I don’t remember hearing that Tony Abbott was ‘in love’ with Julia Gillard. If that was ever the case his ardour had pretty much been extinguished by the time she became PM. I do remember that Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott used to appear on an early morning commercial TV ‘news’ programs (which I don’t watch so never saw) and some commented that they sometimes seemed to be flirting.
I also remember that Kevin Rudd and Joe Hockey used to appear on morning commercial TV together, although no one said anything about flirting as far as I know.
“I know it’s meant to be parody, along the lines of Roy & HG, but I find it tiresome and offensive. Indeed, I’m not sure it isn’t counterproductive for them. I reacted viscerally when I saw him “dealing” lamb to small children wearing T-shirts with “vegans and proud” on it.
One day, official Australianism will say something more nuanced than being an oafish reactionary macho man. One can dream.”
Fran, sure it’s jingoistic cobblers but it’s good marketing.
Besides, it’s not that macho is it? It is lamb we are talking about 😉
Kirkby
[Went onto that right wing website Catallaxy. What is wrong with these people, why are the right so vitriolic towards others – is it in their DNA? {some corrections made for tidiness}]
To be fair, I don’t agree that high dudgeon and bloviating angst is exclusive to the right. When people of the left and the centre get antsy about some wrong, real or imagined, a centre or lefty version of the tone will often ensue. I can recall my own engagement with others between November of 1975 and the defeat of Fraser in 1983, and you’d not have needed too much imagination to provoke me into a hectoring, point by point assault on the perfidy of the leading apologists for “the coup” of 1975. Even now, my stomach knots a little just recalling it. I conceded nothing to today’s crop of folk on the right obsessing about carbon taxes or amongst the ALP obsessing about R/G.
It seems to me that there lurks in most of us humans an inclination to get very loud and very personal when one imagines one sees palpably offensive things apparently going unremedied.
It’s not helpful of course, either to the advocate or the cause. There are far more constructive ways of working out one’s issues, even if it is a case of “accepting the things one cannot change” along with “the courage to change the things that I can” and “the wisdom to know the difference”.
We humans live with a constant paradox. The idea of “progress” entails a vision of the ideal, of perfection. Unless one doesn’t mind sinking into torpor and apathy and becoming a sad sack who realises too late that his/her life has had no purpose, one must embrace the ideal. Of course, in practice, the more closely one approaches the ideal, the easier it is to see its flaws, because by definition, our process in approaching it has refined and developed our insight. Accordingly, we should accept that in practice, the ideal is unattainable, and would be, even allowing that all others shared our vision of it. We dare not give up the journey, but we dare not warrant the journey by the assertion that we will arrive and stop there. Rather, we warrant it by the confidence that all humanity is improved by the process of specifying and approaching the ideal.
And accordingly, we ought to be slow to damn others about us who seem to be on the wrong path, or dawdling or distracted by unicorns. Rather than abuse, we really ought to explain patiently to them our vision of the ideal and the way forward, and if we cannot manage that, or see no purpose in it, then remain quiet and focus on our own progress along the way, lest we duplicate their errors.
Steve777:
I remember watching once or twice Gillard and Abbott on that breakfast show. If anything I thought Abbott was more daunted by her rather than anything else.
Boerwar
This from Onada after his “surrender” makes him very apt for the R/G biff blog.
[“I felt like a fool,” he later wrote. “What had I been doing all these years?”]
No wonder the revisionists loved him.
[Onoda found common cause with ultra-conservatives who denied Japan was an aggressor and said it had no choice but to attack the rest of Asia. He bitterly blamed “left-wing propaganda” for promoting war guilt in Japanese schools.]
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/hiroo-onoda-the-last-japanese-soldier-to-give-himself-in-when-i-surrendered-the-past-seemed-like-a-dream-9068009.html
Steve777 – ironically if Tony Abbott had been in love with her it would have been precisely because she was a woman of substance.
That WW spread framing her image just before an election was a gift for him.
confessions
[We could name it The Events of 2010 Revisited]
Groundhog Day would be a good name.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-25/hollande-splits-from-partner-trierweiler-elysee-palace-confirms.html
[….Celebrity magazine Closer ran a photo spread in its Jan. 10 edition purportedly showing Hollande, 59, as he arrived on a scooter at an apartment around the corner from his office for a liaison with actress Julie Gayet, 41.
….Le Parisien reported that Trierweiler had moved back into the Paris apartment the couple shared before Hollande won the presidency in 2012.
The French president’s approval rating has gained since news of the affair broke, rising to 31 percent from 27 percent at the start of the month, according to a BVA poll for France Inter radio and L’Express magazine published this week. A Jan. 15 Ifop poll showed that 77 percent of respondents believed Hollande’s affair was a private matter.]
Quite amusing really….Les President riding on a scooter to visit his amour…popularity improves, suggesting the French approve of romance of any flavour.
Regarding media coverage. The first example that sticks in my mind was the attacks on Cate Blanchett and Michael Caton for daring to appear in a climate change advertisement.
I always thought Abbott was intimidated by JG’s strength and intellect.
Blokes like that IMO respond to these JG type of women with bellicose aggression, as if they can reassure themselves of the “natural” order of things and prove their manliness by attempting to best the female in question.
It’s insecurity really.
…or small dick syndrome…
briefly:
I do feel sorry for Trierweiler. Dealing with a partner’s betrayal is bad enough without the added humiliation of the publicness of it all.
Morning
Been catching up on yesterday’s contributions.
Thanks to BB for his excellent posts re how the media behaved re JG
And to Boerwar for his dissection of Sheridan et al re the Indonesian situation re asylum seekers and our borders. Nothing reported in our msm comes close to these incisive observations.
Thanks guys!!
[2273…Fran Barlow]
The path by which the red and the green become grey.
Westpac’s Head of Migrant Banking, Jennifer West, is keen to encourage immigrants to stay in Australia because of the financial and cultural benefit they provide to Australia.
Research by Westpac on new Australians, released to coincide with Australia Day, reveals migrants contribute $200 billion to the Australian economy annually and almost one quarter are in jobs earning $70,000 or more.
========================================
I’m sure some right wing racist red neck xenophobe will find something evil about this snippet of info.
[2282
confessions
briefly:
I do feel sorry for Trierweiler. Dealing with a partner’s betrayal is bad enough without the added humiliation of the publicness of it all.]
Me too, confessions. On the upside, she’s now liberated from one the most tedious of men.
[2285
AussieAchmed
Westpac’s Head of Migrant Banking, Jennifer West, is keen to encourage immigrants to stay in Australia because of the financial and cultural benefit they provide to Australia.
Research by Westpac on new Australians, released to coincide with Australia Day, reveals migrants contribute $200 billion to the Australian economy annually and almost one quarter are in jobs earning $70,000 or more.]
About one-eighth of the economy…nothing to sneeze at.
victoria:
I have missed BB’s comments here.
Re Guytaur @2279: Regarding media coverage. The first example that sticks in my mind was the attacks on Cate Blanchett and Michael Caton for daring to appear in a climate change advertisement.
Mostly by the purported champions of free speech.
The Coalition’s Australia will suit this guy.
[British banker living in Singapore who provoked fury by ridiculing poor people has ‘parted ways with his company and has gone to Australia’
Mr Casey, who is married to a former Miss Singapore winner, erupted when he posted a picture on Facebook of his young son sitting on a train with the caption: ‘Daddy, where is your car and who are all these poor people?’
A second photo showed his son sitting in his Porsche alongside the comment: ‘Ahhhhhhh reunited with my baby. Normal service can resume, once I have washed the stench of public transport off me.’
He also branded a taxi driver a ‘retard’ for wearing mittens in hot weather and remarks: ‘After 11 years residency, I am still trying to understand these people]
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2545824/Anton-Casey-British-banker-living-Singapore-provoked-fury-ridiculing-poor-people-parted-ways-company-gone-Australia.html
Briefly
[The path by which the red and the green become grey.]
Or interwoven until they seem as if they should always part of a coherent pattern. As a child, I was a South Sydney supporter. I fancied at the time that I was merely doing this to annoy my great grandfather, who was keen on Balmain, but perhaps it was thematic. 🙂
confessions
They were comments made sometime during yesterday. You have to go back several pages
pom@2239
I will put you to a severe test.
Which cricket team do you support? 😆
More seriously, thanks for your sentiments. Migration is making Australia a much more interesting and exciting place.
[Peter Brent @mumbletwits 6m
If you see a Libertarian today, walk over and say “hi”. Reach out, for they are our brothers and sisters.]
Am assuming this is a little dig at Cattalaxy’s meltdown over AOTY.
zoomster@2252
Is that the same Andrew Elder who repeatedly told us Tony Abbott would never be Prime Minister?
bemused
I remember when I was being “farewelled” before leaving England, the headmaster’s final message was “Just promise that you’ll never support Australia in the Ashes.” He was a keen cricket fan.
I felt a little torn for a few years, but am firmly on the side of the Aussies now.
I am vegetarian and have never even tasted lamb but the ads are funny more parody than anything.
How about a week of Rudd supporters saying positive things about Gillard and Gillard supporters about Rudd?
confessions@2268
So you will be leaving us for that thread?
I bid you farewell. 😆
[Is that the same Andrew Elder who repeatedly told us Tony Abbott would never be Prime Minister?
]
Overestimating the Australian voter isn’t a major crime unless you are the campaigns ad person.