It’s been a disappointing week for poll junkies, with the phone pollsters including Newspoll evidently waiting until after the Australia Day long weekend before ending their New Year hibernation. Since this is an off-week in Morgan’s fortnightly cycle, that just leaves Essential Research. All told, there have only been three poll results published so far this year – two from Essential and one from Morgan – so you’re more than welcome to take BludgerTrack with a bigger-than-usual grain of salt for the time being. For what it’s worth though, the one new data point has driven the Coalition to a new low of 39.3% on the primary vote, and pushed Labor’s two-party lead to a new high of 52.5-47.5.
That might seem counter-intuitive given that the one new poll had the Coalition leading 51-49, but there are three factors which have made it otherwise. First, in adjusting the pollsters for their house biases, a unique approach has been adopted for Essential Research to acknowledge that its bias is in favour of stability, rather than one party or the other. For example, Essential overshot on the Labor vote during the election campaign as momentum swung towards the Coalition, but it’s been doing the opposite since the Coalition started heading south in November. So rather than the usual method of determining bias with reference to past performance in late-campaign polls, I’m plotting a trend of Essential’s deviation from BludgerTrack so its bias adjustments change dynamically over time. With Essential stuck at 51-49 to the Coalition while other pollsters are being fairly unanimous in having Labor leading 52-48, you can pretty much work out for yourself what the Essential bias adjustment currently looks like.
The second point is to do with rounding. While Essential’s two-party result was unchanged this week, the primary vote had the Coalition down two points, Labor down one and the Greens up one. Most of the time that would mean a one-point shift to Labor on two-party preferred, but this is one of those occasions where the shift went missing after the remainders were pared away. However, BludgerTrack doesn’t actually use pollsters’ published two-party results, instead determining primary vote totals and deriving a two-party result from them using 2013 election preferences. So the Essential result looks like a slight shift to Labor compared with last week, so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The third point is that Essential’s numbers are a two-week rolling average (though last week’s result, being the first from the year, was a sample for that week only), so any change that occurs in a given week is a bigger deal than the published numbers suggest.
So it is that BludgerTrack gives Labor a 0.5% gain on the two-party preferred projection and a boost of three on its seat tally. The state relativities haven’t changed much since last week, so the Labor seat gains are evenly spread, with one each provided by Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. Full results as always on the sidebar.
guytaur:
Better to just ignore the baiting from Ruddists.
Steve Clements@2270
I think they were initially very funny and highly effective.
But now they are just too much and I just switch off.
The campaign against Cate Blanchett for her advocacy of effective action on Climate Change was a disgrace. It exhibited all of the worst aspects of the Murdoch media’s abuse of their power (and abuse of the craft of journalism for that matter).
Typical Murdoch crap. Who was ‘outraged’ before the usual shills set out to orchestrate it. They were sending a clear message to high profile public figures – oppose us at your peril.
Of course, Murdoch media normally approve of rich people.
They had no problem with other rich people saying that Australia workers’ wages were too high or that the GST should be increased.
P.S. shortly after Cate Blanchett’s contribution, Dame Elizabeth Murdoch (Ruper’s mother, now deceased) expressed support for action to mitigate climate chnage. There were no thundering condemnations from Piers Ackerman et al.
[2299…bemused]
And this would qualify as the opening entry in the thread.
The Murdoch press also published photos of Blanchett’s home mocking the solar panels on her roof.
Yes, it really was a disgraceful campaign against her.
As I prepare for the day ahead, my thoughts turned to the current government and disturbed my feelings of gladness of having the opportunity to live in this great country.
Why the hell have we elected a government that puts profit (surplus) ahead of the care of its vulnerable citizens?
Why the hell have we elected a government that cares more for corporate and individual wealthy than the most needy in not only our own community but also the world community?
What the fcuk is wrong with these people?
I see the next 3 years (minus just over 100 days) as a time when we will see the social divide widen, a period when we will see the wealth of the few increase while the remainder slip further in poverty.
My thoughts have put a dampener on my celebrations.
lizzie@2296
The important thing is not to get too intense about it.
Of course I support Australia, but I just love the Barmy Army and all the colour and movement they add to the cricket.
I always enjoy a bit of good hearted banter with a Pom about the cricket or a Kiwi about the Rugby.
Actually my post at 2303 wasn’t entirely accurate: http://www.independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/piers-akerman-says-dame-elisabeth-murdoch-is-too-old-and-feeble-to-hold-an-opinion-on-climate-change,3483
guytaur@2298
you want a week of silence from Rudd supporters and lies from Gillard supporters?
No thanks. 👿
WeWantPaul@2300
It does tend to dent ones credibility.
[On the “carbon tax” and Gillard … I have been prominent defending her against what may be called the “juliar” slander. As people here rightly say, she never promised to abandon carbon pricing — which was the substantive part of the complaint rather than the specific form. Had she done so at the time, that would have been all over the news, five days before the election.]
Of course it’s perfectly arguable that her saying “There will be no Carbon Tax… etc.” LOST her votes, as much as (it is said) it mollified carbon-nervous right-wingers.
This would entail accepting the proposition that all, or most Australians actually even SAW the interview at the time and then made voting decisions based on it.
Truth was, hardly anyone saw it at the time it was first aired, and it was so close to the election that hardly anyone would have taken notice of it had they seen it.
From the hysterical post hoc coverage, you’d think her statement generated some kind of “JFK” moment… where everyone in Australia could remember exactly where they were and what they doing as Gillard uttered the fateful words.
“I cut my finger peeling the spuds,” said Dulcie Green, housewife, of Chipping Norton. “I was so surprised, then relieved there would be no Carbon Tax under a government she led.”
Nicholas Westaway, account manager of Hawthorn Victoria, noted, “I was in a cafe, just, y’know, idly watching the TV set in the corner as I sipped my latte. I couldn’t believe I’d heard her say that. And to think I’d been thinking of voting Liberal! I went straight out and filled in a postal vote. No Carbon Tax, and a Labor government? At the time I thought it was an unbeatable combination. Imagine how horrified I was when Gillard said, ‘You can call it a tax if you like…’ on 7.30 (which I also watch every single night).”
It’s really stupid stuff to think that Gillard “stole” the election by a single interview on a single TV network. But that became the common wisdom as a result of the national hysteria over her every utterance and movement that developed over the ensuing couple of years.
She was a lightning rod for every grievance and quibble that anyone experienced, or so we were given permission to believe.
In truth, her mistakes were fairly minor in and of themselves, but in the atmosphere of a hung parliament everything was blown completely out of proportion.
Remember the countdown to Abbott’s “Plebiscite” motion on the first Rudd anniversary? As Albo pointed out, he never even put it on the notice paper, and never even moved to suspend standing orders (one of his otherwise favourite tricks) to do so. It was all bluff and bullshit, yet the media treated it as if Abbott was the executioner, sharpening his axe for the ritual beheading.
The media knew there was no way he could move such a motion, but they pandered to their audiences in pretending that he could have.
It was the same with the prospect of a Double Dissolution in the current parliament. Only a few weeks ago Mark Kenny was still writing absolute garbage about timelines and deadlines as the utterly fanciful Double Dissolution option crept ever closer.
This, the “Plebiscite” furphy, and a hundred other non-events became grist to the media mill, as they employed Reality TV techniques – hype, fake drama, confected “crises”, approaching doom, phoney suspense and so on – to make-believe molehills were really towering mountains.
It all added to the continuing sense of impending obliteration of the Labor government, on literally a weekly basis. If it wasn’t Rudd’s footsteps echoing down the corridors of Parliament House, it was one or both of the Independents about to desert the alliance with Labor, or it was a People’s March on Canberra (remember the “Convoy”, and all those hamburger buns – loaves for the multitude – that had to be binned in the little towns along the way?).
I saw an article yesterday where the statement, “Australians love their Reality TV,” was made. It was part of a critique of how The Biggest Loser had morphed from a fairly simple one-proposition, one-dimensional Reality TV show into one where whole towns “took the challenge”, with – literally – a thousand or so fat townsfolk marching down the street of “Australia’s fattest town” with the hosts, a Body Builder and an Aerobics Queen, at their head, determined to wipe out obesity in Ararat, Victoria.
Utter and complete crap. Total rubbish. A “People’s Movement” put on for the cameras and for ratings… which was exactly what Australian politics became between mid-2010 and mid-2013.
Things were said and done simply to get the “contestant” to the next episode. Much of what was promised was completely impossible or impractical (if not downright lies), but each was taken seriously, discussed as if the promises made really meant something, and as if the whole nation had seen them and was discussing the pros and cons as they stacked their dishwashers, or grilled their snags at barbecues Australia-wide.
“Unity Ticket” was a good example. Turns out we only though Abbott promised the continuation of Gonski. Sadly, it’s not what he thought.
“Cash For Clunkers” was another.
There were any number of them – the Customs Free Zone in Northern Australia, the East Timor solution, Plebiscite and No Confidence threats, Gillard about to be arrested for something that did or didn’t happen 20 years ago, Slipper’s perfect ordinary (if somewhat blokeish) tweets leading to a national crisis, also come to mind.
I lost count of the number of times we were assured “This is the Gillard government’s greatest crisis yet.” Crisis built upon crisis, drama upon drama. The media piled it on… all over things which – other than in a hung parliament, the same hung parliament Tony Abbott vowed he would do “anything” to be in charge of – would otherwise have been dismissed to the page 17 “Today In Politics” column.
Australians DO like their Reality TV, but one would hope that a line could be drawn somewhere, short of where real “reality” meets fake “Reality”.
As I predicted a long time ago, the day after the election, the day after the frenzy of voting had been completed, most of the puff went out of the Aussie Politics Reality TV show. It’s always the same with these things: you vote and then you forget about the whole thing after just a day or so. No more hysteria, no more intra-family feuds about who should win and who should get voted off the show. No more fake dramas as a contestant forgets the lyrics of a song, or another loses a heel.
The trick was to get the Australian public to really believe it was all important. If you can make that one work, you can whip up national madness at call, and sustain it.
Which is why the pre-conditioning, the bread-and-circuses celebrity obsessions, the phoney scandals about the private lives of C-list models and the “hottest” bachelors they pursue, the faux suspense as the last two remaining contestants hear their sudden-death fate, the tabloid dramas, became so important in inventing enough frenzy to get a complete turkey like Abbott, and his gobbling mates installed as Prime Minister and entourage of official hangers on.
We were gamed, or perhaps we were game showed.
The hard heads knew what was happening, but that didn’t make them immune from joining in the fun. Thus, we now find journalists lamenting that Abbott has broken this or that promise, completely ignoring his own description of himself as someone who would say anything to win a point, or an election.
They worry about his aggression, completely putting from their minds that his entire career has been as resident bovver boy, a hatchet man who does the distasteful things, under protection from those higher up, that others refuse to do.
Such was the hatred of Gillard that none of this mattered, as long as it got rid of her… as long as it got rid of her as punishment for mostly imaginary slights or mistakes, and if not imaginary, so trivial that under normal conditions they wouldn’t be considered as career threatening.
Irony of ironies, one of the chief accusations of Gillard was that she refused to play this game. That somehow she was the one at fault for not recognizing the new rules of media coverage. Do we want a Prime Minister who can’t lie, cheat and steal, or say anything to get the reporters off her back? No way! She doesn’t get “The Politics”. Useless as a leader!
Thus, as always, Abbott stands on top on the heap of corpses and devastated dreams of those who voted for him. He has only made himself look “good” (if that is the word) by doing what he always does: making others look bad.
It’s a rotten way to run a country, and I fear it’s going to be a rotten country to live in until we get rid of him altogether.
Campaign news from Griffith.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-leaves-nothing-to-chance-in-griffith-byelection-20140125-31frq.html
Reports that no federal Greens MPs have yet campaigned with their candidate.
briefly@2304
If you like, but I will not be following it. I would prefer to leave it to let confessions and others have their raves. 👿
Bushfire:
Well said. As has often been remarked upon, Abbott got the easiest ride from our media of any LOTO I’ve seen.
Not only do we need to get rid of Abbott, but there needs to be serious re-engineering of our news media. At present it just pushes agendas rather than report on the public interest.
“@mattmoran10news: Congratulations @PaulBongiorno for being awarded an AM! A legend of journalism, a gentleman and wonderful teacher #AustraliaDay”
William,
Tony Abbott is, as he himself admits, no tech-head.
So, he is totally frustrated that he cannot do a thing about his “Track Record of Success” not being available for all to read on the website you alerted us to yesterday. (Warning: do not dwell too long waiting for the following web-page to load. If you do so, you might become so beguiled, you may even start to imagine there is actual content thereon)
https://www.liberal.org.au/tony-abbott-track-record-success
So sing along with Tones as he laments his inability to showcase the multitude of successes he has ramped up, including his Davos Drag and his liberating Epistle to the Free-traders at Ephesus. Cue: “Tracks of my Tears” by Smokey Robinson.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNS6D4hSQdA
People say it’s the life of the Party
The internet and blue tooth
Although I should be laughing loud and hearty
Deep inside I’m blue
:- (
So take a good look for my face
If only the tech-heads upped the pace
Ev’n if you look closer, still can’t see my Track
Record of Success
:- (
I need it, need it!
:- (
Since the election, my charm’s belly flopped in the pits
Seeming like I’m such a clown
Although it may be cute
A web-page’s no substitute
Because the lame thing’s always down
:- (
So take a good look for my face
If only the tech-heads upped the pace
Ev’n if you look closer, still can’t see my Track
Record of Success
:- (
I need it, need it!
:- (
Always I’m masquerading
Hopin’ my image ain’t fadin’
Just a clown oh yeah
Since the page went down
Porkies I can’t make up
And if I can’t fake up, I’m blue!
:- (
So take a good look for my face
If only the tech-heads upped the pace
Ev’n if you look closer, still can’t see my Track
Record of Success
bemused
how about dealing with Elder’s actual argument, rather than saying that because he got something wrong, he lacks credibility?
After all, you have admitted being wrong about things on this site – does that mean we should dismiss everything you say?
Have a go at dealing with the actual points raised, rather than attacking the person making them.
guytaur@2315
I remember Paul Bongiorno when he first started out on TV and I didn’t rate him very highly. He seemed a bit too earnest and artificial, as if trying too hard, as I recall. Oh well, that was my impression.
But he has continually developed throughout his career and I now look forward to his appearances on TV and radio. He has become one of the best and truly deserves his award.
guytaur:
Yes, a deserved award for Bongo.
bemused@2309
Okay, that’s just plain offensive. As a Gillard supporter I’ve already said positive things about Rudd in this discussion, and the only negative things I’ve said about him were supported by you. So you’ve already been proved not only wrong, but offensively and stupidly wrong.
You want people to get over this stuff? Maybe you could try getting over it yourself.
himi
zoomster@2317
It was his persistent theme.
Yes, I have on occasions got something wrong and admitted it. Have you ever had that experience?
Life is too short to read and present my analysis of Elder’s columns.
[“We celebrate the nation and the people we have become,” he said in his address to the Australia Day flag raising and citizenship ceremony in Canberra.
“Today, across our country, we celebrate one of the greatest gifts imaginable – to be an Australian.
“To the men and women taking the citizenship pledge here today – and to the almost 18,000 taking the pledge around Australia, I say `welcome to the team’.”
Mr Abbott said 23 million Australians had found unity in diversity, respect in differences and have built a modern nation on the idea that anyone can get ahead provided they are prepared to have a go.]
All of this of course is undermined by Sen. Fierrvanti-Wells’ comments as reported this morning. I suppose it’s not surprising they’ve played it this way.
himi@2320
Okay, that’s just plain offensive. As a Gillard supporter I’ve already said positive things about Rudd in this discussion, and the only negative things I’ve said about him were supported by you. So you’ve already been proved not only wrong, but offensively and stupidly wrong.
You want people to get over this stuff? Maybe you could try getting over it yourself.
himi
Sorry himi, I should have added a 😉 as it was not meant to be taken seriously.
bemused
[Yes, I have on occasions got something wrong and admitted it. Have you ever had that experience?]
Yes, quite frequently. I apologised to mexicanbeemer for misreading a post yesterday. I believe I do that far more often than you ever do.
[Life is too short to read and present my analysis of Elder’s columns.]
Not what you were asked to do.
Fran Barlow @ 2246 and poroti @ 2248
Ta, but I was just seconding pedant @ 2141.
[ “@mattmoran10news: Congratulations @PaulBongiorno for being awarded an AM! A legend of journalism, a gentleman and wonderful teacher #AustraliaDay” ]
Totally deserved. Always respected his work. If only there were more like him.
Good God or whoever came back on and see the arguments continue re Gillard v Rudd. Fortunately I can see other PBers are also sick of it as well, Please understand they have both left Parliament now and we have a huge threat to Australia with LNP and Abbott in control. Please unite and get rid of him. Off again for a while hope things have altered by the time I come back on
How about a week of Rudd supporters saying positive things about Gillard and Gillard supporters about Rudd?
Or maybe compromise – everyone say negative things about Tony Abbott instead.
[Please understand they have both left Parliament now and we have a huge threat to Australia with LNP and Abbott in control. ]
I don’t think there’s any doubt about who the real enemy is, from either side of the Rudd-Gillard chasm.
mari@2326
Why do you raise this again?
Don’t expect me to let misogynists and Rudd sycophants get away with doing to Gillard’s legacy that which they did to her PMship. These are the people who would prefer Abbott as Prime Minister than a female ALP PM. I exempt people from Qld because they are too parochial to know wrong from right.
[Gillard had enough faith in the average Australian to believe that if the facts were put before them they would come to the correct decision – but she also made it clear that if they didn’t, she’d price carbon anyway.]
Absolute garbage. She never said she would definitely put a price on carbon.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@2330
Why is a PM (or any politicians) gender important?
I judge on ability. I don’t care about gender, it is, or should be, irrelevant.
Some of the politicians I hold in high regard happen to be female (e.g. Tanya Plibersek, Penny Wong) others happen to be male (e.g. Albo, Andrew Leigh). So what?
Tony Abbott is, in my opinion, probably the worst human being to become PM since Billy Hughes.
Diogenes@2331
Who said that Dio?
Re Rudd/Gillard Leadershit.
A man and his wife have an argument on their wedding night about how something has been cut or broken. She maintains that it was done with scissors, but he does not believe her. Their argument only intensifies over the years and the bickering is intense. Finally, one day he pushes her into a pond. The woman, even while drowning, has the last word; she reaches two fingers above the water and makes the sign of a pair of scissors.
Both the Ruddists and Gillardists are intent on rewriting history and will never tire of spouting their propaganda.
It’s a futile request to ask them to stop.
Julia Gillard has more guts, talent, intelligence, leadership qualities, compassion, drive, work ethic, personal strength and courage in her little finger-nail than both both Rudd and Abbott’s whole bodies put together.
Neither of them are worthy to pick up the shoe she lost on that lawn, let alone be PM instead of her.
why it is pointless to ‘debate’ sean or crank
http://www.alternet.org/education/human-stupidity-destroying-world
the libs have been masterful in winning the SWUM (stupid white uneducated male) vote. they will fight to destroy public education and remove from the syllabis science, ethics and any form of dialectic analysis, deconstruction or any other method that promotes critical thought
‘syllabus’ in fact (typo, not mis-spelling – new keyboard with everything shifted slightly to the left)
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@2336
Comedy Gold! 😆 😆 😆
[Why Julia Gillard didn’t lie about her carbon tax plans before election
.. in a pre-election interview with The Australian’s Paul Kelly, our Prime Minister said: “I don’t rule out the possibility of legislating a Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, a market-based mechanism. I rule out a carbon tax.”]
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/why-julia-gillard-didnt-lie-about-her-carbon-tax-plans-before-election/story-e6frerdf-1226421929786
For anyone listening to the Hottest 100, this is prediction using social media which was very accurate last year.
http://warmest100.com.au/2013/
Another thing about cultists, be they Rudd or Gillard, is that there is no level of evidence which can get them to change their minds and it is pointless to try.
Puufy
She listened to the Greens.
Gone, finished, kaput.
She was told right here!
[Griffith Qld @GriffithElects 2h
QLD Police has issued advice about the Freedom Day Rally to be held in Brisbane today http://mypolice.qld.gov.au/brisbanecentral/2014/01/20/freedom-day-rally-brisbane/ … ]
Newman will ban public rallies soon, what’s the bet.
Diogenes@2335
When more of your life is behind you than ahead of you, it naturally seems more important to rewrite history than to change the future.
Best just leave them to it – time is both a necessary and sufficient remedy for such nonsense.
Meanwhile, I’m with Boerwar – Australia has recently suffered several tumors on its body politic. Only one remains, but it was always the most malignant, and needs to be removed before it does any more damage.
ooohh what a thought, Rudd and Abbott’s bodies put together.
Poor Ruddy 🙂
Dio:
That is why we need a separate thread for them to thrash away at each other to their hearts’ content.
Centre
They deserve each other.
Some good news for the Philippines
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25896408
“@ASRC1: #Australian of the Year an Indigenous Australian. New Australian of the Year a former #asylum seeker. Says it all. #SurvivalDay #auspol”