BludgerTrack: 52.5.47.5 to Labor

With only one new poll to go on, the weekly BludgerTrack aggregate finds the trend to Labor that kicked in around November still hasn’t abated.

It’s been a disappointing week for poll junkies, with the phone pollsters including Newspoll evidently waiting until after the Australia Day long weekend before ending their New Year hibernation. Since this is an off-week in Morgan’s fortnightly cycle, that just leaves Essential Research. All told, there have only been three poll results published so far this year – two from Essential and one from Morgan – so you’re more than welcome to take BludgerTrack with a bigger-than-usual grain of salt for the time being. For what it’s worth though, the one new data point has driven the Coalition to a new low of 39.3% on the primary vote, and pushed Labor’s two-party lead to a new high of 52.5-47.5.

That might seem counter-intuitive given that the one new poll had the Coalition leading 51-49, but there are three factors which have made it otherwise. First, in adjusting the pollsters for their house biases, a unique approach has been adopted for Essential Research to acknowledge that its bias is in favour of stability, rather than one party or the other. For example, Essential overshot on the Labor vote during the election campaign as momentum swung towards the Coalition, but it’s been doing the opposite since the Coalition started heading south in November. So rather than the usual method of determining bias with reference to past performance in late-campaign polls, I’m plotting a trend of Essential’s deviation from BludgerTrack so its bias adjustments change dynamically over time. With Essential stuck at 51-49 to the Coalition while other pollsters are being fairly unanimous in having Labor leading 52-48, you can pretty much work out for yourself what the Essential bias adjustment currently looks like.

The second point is to do with rounding. While Essential’s two-party result was unchanged this week, the primary vote had the Coalition down two points, Labor down one and the Greens up one. Most of the time that would mean a one-point shift to Labor on two-party preferred, but this is one of those occasions where the shift went missing after the remainders were pared away. However, BludgerTrack doesn’t actually use pollsters’ published two-party results, instead determining primary vote totals and deriving a two-party result from them using 2013 election preferences. So the Essential result looks like a slight shift to Labor compared with last week, so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The third point is that Essential’s numbers are a two-week rolling average (though last week’s result, being the first from the year, was a sample for that week only), so any change that occurs in a given week is a bigger deal than the published numbers suggest.

So it is that BludgerTrack gives Labor a 0.5% gain on the two-party preferred projection and a boost of three on its seat tally. The state relativities haven’t changed much since last week, so the Labor seat gains are evenly spread, with one each provided by Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. Full results as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,463 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5.47.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 48 of 50
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  1. Rudd vs Gillard will stop in due course. No one now argues about Costello vs Howard, Keating vs Hawke, Hawke vs Hayden, Howard vs Peackock, Mark Antony vs Gaius Octavius. It can’t go on forever.

  2. Centre
    A strange creature indeed, it would have 2x anus, and zero spine. Maybe a worm with an arske at each end?

  3. [
    Bar Bar
    Posted Sunday, January 26, 2014 at 10:02 am | Permalink
    .
    have been precisely because she was a woman of substance.
    That WW spread framing her image just before an election was a gift for him.
    ]
    The WW article was an act of stupidity.

  4. confessions@2322

    “All of this of course is undermined by Sen. Fierrvanti-Wells’ comments as reported this morning. I suppose it’s not surprising they’ve played it this way.”

    The unfortunate thing is that the well-meaning parents who speak poor English at home rather their own language are depriving children of learning a properly constructed grammatical language. Hence, it actually takes the children longer to learn English. Ironically, some of this research was done in the 1960s, looking at how to help the children of migrants do well in Wollongong.

  5. [Mark Antony vs Gaius Octavius.]

    Yeah, nobody remembers that one. It’s not like it’s been subject of many a dramatic recreation (including a Shakespearean play) over the last 2000 years. 😛

  6. frednk@2355

    Bar Bar
    Posted Sunday, January 26, 2014 at 10:02 am | Permalink
    .
    have been precisely because she was a woman of substance.
    That WW spread framing her image just before an election was a gift for him.


    The WW article was an act of stupidity.

    Was Kevin Rudd responsible for it? 😐

  7. Dio,

    Not particularly accurate ATM. If Daft Punk doesn’t get a song in the top 10 I’d be extremely surprised. If Vance Joy get no. 1 for Rip Tide I quit. (Not that I think they’ll pull off a “Thrift Shop” (an alright song played to death by commercial stations))

  8. Douglas and Milko@2356

    confessions@2322

    “All of this of course is undermined by Sen. Fierrvanti-Wells’ comments as reported this morning. I suppose it’s not surprising they’ve played it this way.”

    The unfortunate thing is that the well-meaning parents who speak poor English at home rather their own language are depriving children of learning a properly constructed grammatical language. Hence, it actually takes the children longer to learn English. Ironically, some of this research was done in the 1960s, looking at how to help the children of migrants do well in Wollongong.

    That is a truly interesting piece of research you cite there.

    But it poses a dilemma for the parents who are therefore inhibited from practising their English at home.

    So what is the solution?

  9. Yeah, it’s pretty easy to pick who’s going to be in the top 10, it’s just the order and maybe the actual song. I know none of mine are going to be no. 1. Oh well.

  10. I also remember reading at the time that Deputy Prime Minister Gillard’s office used to have “Dress Like a Tory Woman Days” where they all used to turn up, including Julia, wearing pearls.

    Putting that together with doing a WW airhead makeover, and boasting Tony Abbott would be ineffective because he was “ïn love with her” indicated to me an alarming lack of gravitas.

    Irony was that I noticed later Julia used to wear pearls all the time in the hung parliament. Didn’t work then, either.

    The moral of this story is – the best performed political leaders are those who present themselves as who they are, not who spinmeisters imagine “people” might wish them to be – eg Merkel, Clarke. They should have been the role models for Australia’s first female PM.

  11. bemused

    Well you are responsible for your actions. You can start by not referring to people as cultists and arguing a case on its merits.

    In this way you may start a process Adam Goodes refers to as breaking down the silos between people.

  12. Bar Bar

    [Putting that together with doing a WW airhead makeover, and boasting Tony Abbott would be ineffective because he was “ïn love with her” indicated to me an alarming lack of gravitas.]

    I don’t believe that Julia was in control of the “makeover” or the foolishness about Abbott’s flirting. You seem to have been gathering information from a very gossipy source by pretending she was “boasting”.

  13. [The unfortunate thing is that the well-meaning parents who speak poor English at home rather their own language are depriving children of learning a properly constructed grammatical language. ]

    The AEDI has given us some interesting results about children from non-English speaking backgrounds and their readiness for school. Essentially it’s not as cut-and-dried as you infer.

  14. Skip if not interested in a rant over attempts to destoy Gillard’s legacy.
    [
    Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, January 26, 2014 at 11:59 am | Permalink

    Don’t expect me to let misogynists and Rudd sycophants get away with doing to Gillard’s legacy that which they did to her PMship.
    ]

    And that is the key issue. The Rudd whiteanters and Abbott still on the same side. Wishing to destoy Gillard’s legacy.

    Well Labor has made their decission, they are not going to waste the next two decades trying to walk away from the legacy as Beazley did with Keating’s.

    The attempt to destoy Gillards Legacy will destroy Abbott; he definitly should be worried about the future, not fighting old battles. The pink bat royal commission, who is going to care (and that is Rudd’s mistake anyway, walking away from defending his minister).

    In the end, if history remembers Rudd at all it will be as the whitanter that destroyed Gillard and I suppose those that are defending his actions are trying to avoid this; much more likely however that he will become a footnote.

    Gillard will be remembered no matter how hard the pathetic white men try. At the very least the first female PM.

    The PM before the lost years, the lost years started with Rudd’s second try, the chance to prove he wasn’t full of it, and the result, it was proved he was, and of cause continue under Abbott.

  15. [
    bemused
    Posted Sunday, January 26, 2014 at 12:53 pm | Permalink
    ..

    Was Kevin Rudd responsible for it? 😐
    ]
    No, and while I am on about acts of image stupidity.

    You don’t see men in high places walking around in clothing showing off their chest hair, women with any sense don’t show off the cleavage.

  16. sustainable future@2337

    why it is pointless to ‘debate’ sean or crank

    http://www.alternet.org/education/human-stupidity-destroying-world

    the libs have been masterful in winning the SWUM (stupid white uneducated male) vote. they will fight to destroy public education and remove from the syllabis science, ethics and any form of dialectic analysis, deconstruction or any other method that promotes critical thought

    Just finished reading that article you linked to and it is seriously good.

    I highly recommend it to everyone who has not yet read it.

    Australia is not as bad as the US … yet. But there are certainly forces wanting to push us in that direction.

  17. frednk@2376

    bemused
    Posted Sunday, January 26, 2014 at 12:53 pm | Permalink
    ..

    Was Kevin Rudd responsible for it?


    No, and while I am on about acts of image stupidity.

    You don’t see men in high places walking around in clothing showing off their chest hair, women with any sense don’t show off the cleavage.

    I agree up to a point.

    It is hard for a woman to dress fashionably and not show a modest amount of cleavage. And I think that is OK.

  18. This is a particularly sad Australia Day – there is nothing to be proud of…..

    But then I watched Adam Goodes’ speech and a small ray of hope blossomed- I hope the ALP has reached out to Adam- I’d like to see him and others like him take a more influential role in public life

  19. Her acolytes were boasting, Lizzie.

    At the end of the day, if you are the leader, if you are the prime minister, YOU decide how your image will be presented, whether you will have Dress Like a Tory Woman days in your office and etc …

  20. BW and Player One

    You really do not seem to understand politics if you describe Abbott as a tumour or rotten apple with the implicit assumption that if he was gone there would be sweetness and ligt. Abbott is actually an old style DLP type and follower of Santa maria and I really see very little difference between him and the far Catholic right of Labor – Farrel, Feeney etc. He seems a bit of a thug etc but so do many of ou

  21. BW and Player One

    You really do not seem to understand politics if you describe Abbott as a tumour or rotten apple with the implicit assumption that if he was gone there would be sweetness and ligt. Abbott is actually an old style DLP type and follower of Santa maria and I really see very little difference between him and the far Catholic right of Labor – Farrel, Feeney etc. He seems a bit of a thug etc but so do many of our ALP heavies. Now while on social issue

  22. BW and Player One

    You really do not seem to understand politics if you describe Abbott as a tumour or rotten apple with the implicit assumption that if he was gone there would be sweetness and ligt. Abbott is actually an old style DLP type and follower of Santa maria and I really see very little difference between him and the far Catholic right of Labor – Farrel, Feeney etc. He seems a bit of a thug etc but so do many of our ALP heavies. Now while on social issues Abbott is far right, on economic and even IR issues he is to the left in the LNP.

    If Abbott were turfed out the alternative could be much, much worse. This idea that he is the rotten apple is truly juvenile.

    Why not look at the forces that drive the LNP for the real tu

  23. BW and Player One

    You really do not seem to understand politics if you describe Abbott as a tumour or rotten apple with the implicit assumption that if he was gone there would be sweetness and ligt. Abbott is actually an old style DLP type and follower of Santa maria and I really see very little difference between him and the far Catholic right of Labor – Farrel, Feeney etc. He seems a bit of a thug etc but so do many of our ALP heavies. Now while on social issues Abbott is far right, on economic and even IR issues he is to the left in the LNP.

    If Abbott were turfed out the alternative could be much, much worse. This idea that he is the rotten apple is truly juvenile.

    Why not look at the forces that drive the LNP for the real tumour

  24. bar bar

    I googled and found precisely one reference to ‘Dress Like A Tory’ days in Gillard’s office.

    Wow, talk about controversial….

  25. BW and Player One

    [You really do not seem to understand politics if you describe Abbott as a tumour or rotten apple with the implicit assumption that if he was gone there would be sweetness and ligt. Abbott is actually an old style DLP type and follower of Santa maria and I really see very little difference between him and the far Catholic right of Labor – Farrel, Feeney etc. He seems a bit of a thug etc but so do many of our ALP heavies. Now while on social issue

    by daretotread on Jan 26, 2014 at 1:35 pm]

    With Rudd and Abbott there is really no need to complicate stuff. They were/are the two rotten apples of Australian politics. Their rot spread/s. We have got rid of one rotten apple. It is time to get rid of the other rotten apple.

    That will leave lots of stuff to be done to improve governance. But without getting rid of the rotten apples we cannot even get started on the other stuff.

  26. daretotread@2384

    BW and Player One

    You really do not seem to understand politics if you describe Abbott as a tumour or rotten apple with the implicit assumption that if he was gone there would be sweetness and ligt. Abbott is actually an old style DLP type and follower of Santa maria and I really see very little difference between him and the far Catholic right of Labor – Farrel, Feeney etc. He seems a bit of a thug etc but so do many of our ALP heavies. Now while on social issues Abbott is far right, on economic and even IR issues he is to the left in the LNP.

    If Abbott were turfed out the alternative could be much, much worse. This idea that he is the rotten apple is truly juvenile.

    Why not look at the forces that drive the LNP for the real tumour

    I found your successive drafts intriguing. 😛

  27. [on economic and even IR issues he is to the left in the LNP.]

    His recent speech suggests otherwise. While there are some members of the ALP Caucus I have a problem with, I think you exaggerate the conservativeness of many of them. E.G. Feeney is hardly a closet Tory.

  28. daretotread@2382

    BW and Player One

    You really do not seem to understand politics if you describe Abbott as a tumour or rotten apple.

    There is no question that Abbott is a blight on Australian politics. And there is no question that the only reason he ever made it to the position of PM is because we had the unfortunate bad luck to also have a blight on the other side of politics as well (now gone).

    Left to himself, Abbott would have remained a slightly imbecilic but largely innocuous fruit loop, snickered at by both sides of politics.

    He was catapulted into the top job by a series of events that should never have happened, and hopefully will never happen again.

    But as long as he remains there he will continue to do serious and long-term damage.

    He needs to be removed as fast as possible. Many in the ALP side are still too busy fighting old battles to accomplish much, but fortunately a few in the LNP are beginning to see this. Let’s hope a few more wake up soon.

  29. Sorry for posting 4 times. This laptop has a mind of its own.

    In fact can anyone help. When I type the cursor jumps about and I find I am typing several lines above. It is very irritating. Seems to hit the post key often too

  30. [Many in the ALP side are still too busy fighting old battles to accomplish much,]

    Is this true? The picture I get of the current caucus is one of relief that those battles are now finally behind them with Rudd’s retirement. They look more united than at any stage in the last 5 years.

  31. Diogenes

    Posted Sunday, January 26, 2014 at 12:28 pm | Permalink

    Another thing about cultists, be they Rudd or Gillard, is that there is no level of evidence which can get them to change their minds and it is pointless to try.
    ====================================================

    So they are in the same “class” as Bolt, Ackerman, Abbott, Hockey, Pyne, Morrison, Wilson, Murdoch, Monkton etc

  32. [bemused
    Posted Sunday, January 26, 2014 at 1:32 pm | Permalink

    I agree up to a point.

    It is hard for a woman to dress fashionably and not show a modest amount of cleavage. And I think that is OK.
    ]

    Being a PM isn’t a fashion show. In my view (worth nothing) there where three points where Gillard’s image as a PM was destoyed.

    1)She was a PM not a fashion model. There were several other occasion where the dress left one shaking one’s head. Suits have a function. Took her a while to work that out.

    2)Being dragged over the lawn like a stack of potatoes by her security team, the whole dam lot should have been sacked.

    3)The WW article.

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