BludgerTrack: to Labor

With only one new poll to go on, the weekly BludgerTrack aggregate finds the trend to Labor that kicked in around November still hasn’t abated.

It’s been a disappointing week for poll junkies, with the phone pollsters including Newspoll evidently waiting until after the Australia Day long weekend before ending their New Year hibernation. Since this is an off-week in Morgan’s fortnightly cycle, that just leaves Essential Research. All told, there have only been three poll results published so far this year – two from Essential and one from Morgan – so you’re more than welcome to take BludgerTrack with a bigger-than-usual grain of salt for the time being. For what it’s worth though, the one new data point has driven the Coalition to a new low of 39.3% on the primary vote, and pushed Labor’s two-party lead to a new high of 52.5-47.5.

That might seem counter-intuitive given that the one new poll had the Coalition leading 51-49, but there are three factors which have made it otherwise. First, in adjusting the pollsters for their house biases, a unique approach has been adopted for Essential Research to acknowledge that its bias is in favour of stability, rather than one party or the other. For example, Essential overshot on the Labor vote during the election campaign as momentum swung towards the Coalition, but it’s been doing the opposite since the Coalition started heading south in November. So rather than the usual method of determining bias with reference to past performance in late-campaign polls, I’m plotting a trend of Essential’s deviation from BludgerTrack so its bias adjustments change dynamically over time. With Essential stuck at 51-49 to the Coalition while other pollsters are being fairly unanimous in having Labor leading 52-48, you can pretty much work out for yourself what the Essential bias adjustment currently looks like.

The second point is to do with rounding. While Essential’s two-party result was unchanged this week, the primary vote had the Coalition down two points, Labor down one and the Greens up one. Most of the time that would mean a one-point shift to Labor on two-party preferred, but this is one of those occasions where the shift went missing after the remainders were pared away. However, BludgerTrack doesn’t actually use pollsters’ published two-party results, instead determining primary vote totals and deriving a two-party result from them using 2013 election preferences. So the Essential result looks like a slight shift to Labor compared with last week, so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The third point is that Essential’s numbers are a two-week rolling average (though last week’s result, being the first from the year, was a sample for that week only), so any change that occurs in a given week is a bigger deal than the published numbers suggest.

So it is that BludgerTrack gives Labor a 0.5% gain on the two-party preferred projection and a boost of three on its seat tally. The state relativities haven’t changed much since last week, so the Labor seat gains are evenly spread, with one each provided by Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. Full results as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,463 comments on “BludgerTrack: to Labor”

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  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    And herein lies a big problem for such legislation.
    Do these doctors really know who they’re asking to show leadership?
    Speaking of leadership, how’s this? (Apparently there is a cartoon in the GG on this subject saying business will lead the way – until the next GFC!).
    The idiot just can’t help himself.
    From the Royal Commission yesterday.
    Now the Winter Olympics WILL be worth watching (at times).
    Alan Moir brings a large-nosed Pyne out for a run.

    Cathy Wilcox on Gallic political values.
    Pat Campbell doesn’t think Australian politics is too bullish at the moment.
    David Rowe – Abbott in Switzerland. (What is Morriscum eating?)

  2. On the allegations of the Navy’s alleged actions against AS Abbott says “Who do you believe?”
    Remember Howard “Who do you trust?”?

  3. [
    Edward StJohn
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 6:46 am | Permalink

    Stand by for a bombshell announcement tonight !
    Abbott’s been shown the door is inevitable, so that can’t be it.

  4. ICJ Oz closing submission.

    Oz Solicitor General’s closing submission focused on the rationale for the seizure of Timorese documents from the lawyers office in Canberra – almost entirely relating to the ASIS operatives and their safety as being the rationale for the execution of the warrant. He neither confirmed nor denied the espionage claims that Oz bugged the negotiations.

    On a narrow interpretation this is a reasonable argument but it avoids all the other issues in this matter, not the least of which are the interests of the Timorese people and rights of the Timor nation to protect its interests.

    He made the point that all involved in State secrets know the rules … that if a higher moral argument appears to merit the release of State secrets then there is a procedure to be followed – in this case that involved seeking the permission of the D-G of ASIO as required under the ASIO Act. We know from earlier reports that the current DG of ASIO was in charge of the bugging operation in 2004 … so make of that what you will…

    Raised the Snowden matter as setting a precedent to justify a State’s actions to protect its interests.

    Confirmed in response to Judge Greenwood’s question that the seized documents had remained sealed.

    Mr Campbell then addressed issues relating to the plausibility of the immunity rights asserted by Timor, essentially claiming that such rights are not absolute.

    So, in essence, the Oz legal case hinges on preserving its national security and the safety of its spooks. It neither confirmed nor denied the spying allegations.

    The ICJ indicated it seek to make a ruling as soon as possible – my guess is this will be within six weeks. Given all the issues raised by the Snowden matter the ruling in this case, and given the eminence of the ICJ, the ruling is likely to set important international legal precedents on diplomatic immunity.

    Aus closing submission link:

    Timor Leste closing submission – and highly recommended for Sir Eli’s eloquence…

  5. [Confirmed in response to Judge Greenwood’s question that the seized documents had remained sealed.]

    How do they know what they have seized?

    Bit like how did the navy know they had crossed the border when they didn’t know where it was.

  6. Morning all. I’ll be away for the weekend so limited posting. Thanks for the links BK. abbott’s treatment of Indonesia is amazing(ly bad). Does he not understand how quickly his own policies will unravel without their help? Abbott’s only response is blind attack, to any situation.

    The situation in Adelaide for Holden responses is not good. It is becoming a political football. A plan is badly needed to focus on retraining, redevelop the site into something else, stop building more housing in the NE corridor towards Gawler, finish the train upgrade into the city, and try to get more defence work n the area. Elizabeth Salisbury unemployment is bad enough already.

    Have a good few days all.

  7. Morning all,

    William Bowe said:
    It’s been a disappointing week for poll junkies,

    It has. I’m hankerin’ for a newspoll. I want to see how they’ll spin their graphic when Labor lead on primaries…

    William Bowe also said:
    you can pretty much work out for yourself what the Essential bias adjustment currently looks like

    3 points? No, no, I’m just being biased…

    Absolutely Loorve David Rowe. The work that goes into his art. Besides cramming more than the proverbial 1000 works into the picture I especially like how he portrays Abbott as a punch drunk, black eyed, budgie smuggling Effwit.

  8. On the allegations of the Navy’s alleged actions against AS Abbott says “Who do you believe?”

    1. Asylum seekers that navy personnel deliberately harmed them? Hard to believe, especially given that if this is what happened (seven asylum seekers with severe burns) it seems unlikely to have been the work of one ‘bad apple’.
    2. Indonesian authorities who seem to accept the story – ditto
    3. Scott Morrison – he will say whatever suits his purposes regardless of its relation to objective reality. Has been demonising asylum seekers for political purposes for four years. Believe him? No.
    4. Tony Abbott – ditto.
    5. Claims that asylum seekers deliberately injured their hands? Hard to credit but possible.
    6. Was it an accident? Hard to see how this could have happened to seven asylum seekers.
    7. Asylum seekers violently resist naval personnel? Possible, but why would they get burnt?

    This needs a thorough investigation in cooperation with the Indonesian police (which looks like is going to happen – and appropriate action taken if wrongdoing is identified.

  9. Good Morning

    Asbestos Bishop was out for a runthis morning with ger comments on Snowden as played on this morning’s AM.

    The Abbott Government truly are working to be ome term. All the GOP tactics we have seen in the last few years. At least the GOP is working on the basis that a lot of voters are disenfranchised so they can win. Wrong as we have seen.
    Abbott has no such excuse for his government’s appalling tactics.

  10. Another Abbott brain fart

    NEWLYWEDS across Australia will be given a $200 voucher for marriage counselling from July 1, as part of a $20 million trial to strengthen relationships and avoid family breakdowns.

  11. BK

    Great links. Thanks.

    The first one (mandatory sentencing) yet again shows the stupidity of such laws, despite the wide support for such stupidity canvassed here yesterday.

    The many expressions here that somehow harsh n unjust sentences help the victim’s family is the very reason we don’t have a system where the perp is adjudicated on by the family.

    An objective and impartial judge / jury system conducted by others who are not feeling the great pain and emotions of the victim family is the cornerstone of our far from imperfect judicial system.

    To state the bleedin obvious, no-one thinks straight (or fairly) when emotionally wrecked.

    The perp in the article linked by BK could be the son of any of us.

    To view his culpability as the same as that of a moron who goes out with the intent to get drunk n bash others, and who has a history of violence is frankly absurd, despite the fact that the victim might have the same outcome.

    As I’ve said here before, some of those who dismiss the likes of Nicholas Cowdrey as being “out of touch” should go and sit in the public gallery at a few trials and gain an understanding of the complexity of circumstances that surround evry case.

    Having sat through more than 100 trials i have yet to see 2 that have identical circumstances such that justice would be served if both got the same punishment.

  12. BK

    Rowe: a living nightmare:

    Note the hill of human flesh, note the human skis, being used by the fat cat and Morrison is sucking on an exhaust pipe.

  13. AussieAchmed

    Another Abbott brain fart]

    What’s the bet there is a network of church run or L:ib mates’ counseling ready to hoover up such business welfare ?

  14. AA and guytaur

    It seems it was an Andrews brainphart encouraged by his missus. Since Tone has no ideas of his own and god knows what his idea of a successful marriage is, he’s accepted it. The time for counselling is not in the dewy-eyed early years.

  15. [Edward StJohn
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 6:46 am | Permalink

    Stand by for a bombshell announcement tonight !]

    Let me guess:

    The Abbott Government will announce a comprehensive suite of measures to:

    (1) Screw the truly, absurdly, filthy rich
    (2) Rein in the excesses of the finance industry spivs
    (3) Protect the environment.
    (4) Support those who are most in need
    (5) Revitalise the manufacturing industry
    (6) Withdraw $420,000,000 in subsidies to the farming sector.
    (7) Withdraw billions in subsidies from the largely foreign owned mining sector.
    (8) Rid the Australian economy of economy-distorting negative gearing and the economy distorting capital gains tax-free homes
    (9) Means test all government transfers to individuals
    (10) Make peace and not war with Australia’s neighbours
    (11) Reintroduce transparency and accountability to Australian governance.

    These measures will, of course, be applied in the following context:

    No more lies!
    No more pathetic excuses!
    No more suprises!
    More accountability!
    More transparency!
    You can trust Abbott!
    The Cost of Living has gone down!
    There will be a surplus in real time!
    200,000 jobs created by Christmas!

    AND…The adults will be out and about.

  16. I dont see why Newlyweds need counselling. Marriages usually run into trouble several years dowm the track. The pressures of starting a family etc start to bite.

  17. victoria

    If newlyweds need counselling, the best advice would probably be “don’t do it”. Giving women confidence and a sense of their own worth would be far more useful IMO.

  18. “@joshgnosis: It still looks like it’s mainly for marriages, and that adding in same-sex couples was an afterthought.”

    The hypocrisy abounds, but cannot get in the way of making a buck.

  19. Rossmore

    Appreciate the links. The video links dont work for me on my ipad. I will have to view them on another platform later on.

  20. People here are far too quick to condemn. Pre-marriage counselling was always a part of the interview/ceremony arrangements of most Church weddings.

    There is nothing wrong with informing/educating/discussing the changes and challenges that occur in one’s life following marrriage.

  21. guytaur

    This voucher thing has more holes in it than a sponge. When we have already moved towards acknowledging unmarried couples, Abbott and Andrews are revealing a massive depth of old-fashioned thinking. Or do they imagine they are encouraging “real marriages” by handing out the vouchers 😀

  22. Why would newlyweds need marriage counselling?

    Is it a voucher that can only be spent at “approved” service providers? Christian ones I bet.

    Here darl’, stick this in the photo album in case we need it. Lol

  23. No problems with that GG but let the blushing bride and groom to be arrange/fund it themselves, should have nothing to do with the taxpayer.

  24. lizzie

    I got married in the tyoical way to please both sides of the family. I have told my own children that if they want to partner up, there is no need for a formal ceremony or documentation. It is entirely up to them what they wish to do.
    Personally I think having a big wedding celebration is a total waste of time and money. I know I am a party pooperI 😀

  25. Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane · 11m
    I wrote this in 2010 about Kevin Andrews ‘ conflict of interest. He rang me in a rage to insist he had none

    Andrews and his wife are hardline Catholic marriage counsellors (his wife has long edited the Catholic marriage journal Threshold) and Andrews maintains his membership of Catholic bodies such as Marriage Education and the Australian Catholic Marriage and Family Council, putting him in a hopelessly conflicted position in the event the Coalition should attain government and Andrews has responsibility for the Family portfolio and funding for family services.

  26. lizzie,

    With the more secular attitudes these days, church weddings are just one of a number of options.

    I don’t see any harm in making counselling available to all and sundry regardless of how the ceremony is conducted.
    Overall, I see it has a positive initiative.

  27. [Speaking in Davos, Switzerland, where he is at the World Economic Forum, Mr Abbott said Australia would “continue to do what we are entitled to do to secure our borders”.

    “Stopping the boats is a matter of sovereignty and President (Susilo Bambang) Yudhoyono of all people ought to understand just how seriously countries take their sovereignty,” he said.

    “So we will continue to do what we are entitled to do to secure our borders.”]

    WTF? Why is he talking about domestic matters like boats when he’s at a world economic forum? If you didn’t know it beforehand, we certainly know now that Abbott has no vision whatsoever other than outright brawling.

  28. GG

    I recall my own pre wedding counselling. As i was getting married in a church, it was compulsory. With all due respect, a priest’s advice re marriage is not going to cut it, but i attended these sessions anyway.
    Speaking to your own family, relativea and friends who have been through the stages of marriage, are much more beneficial than counselling from an organisation.
    Of course, should a relationship run into trouble down the track, seeking help from a counsellor can be very useful.

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