BludgerTrack: to Labor

With only one new poll to go on, the weekly BludgerTrack aggregate finds the trend to Labor that kicked in around November still hasn’t abated.

It’s been a disappointing week for poll junkies, with the phone pollsters including Newspoll evidently waiting until after the Australia Day long weekend before ending their New Year hibernation. Since this is an off-week in Morgan’s fortnightly cycle, that just leaves Essential Research. All told, there have only been three poll results published so far this year – two from Essential and one from Morgan – so you’re more than welcome to take BludgerTrack with a bigger-than-usual grain of salt for the time being. For what it’s worth though, the one new data point has driven the Coalition to a new low of 39.3% on the primary vote, and pushed Labor’s two-party lead to a new high of 52.5-47.5.

That might seem counter-intuitive given that the one new poll had the Coalition leading 51-49, but there are three factors which have made it otherwise. First, in adjusting the pollsters for their house biases, a unique approach has been adopted for Essential Research to acknowledge that its bias is in favour of stability, rather than one party or the other. For example, Essential overshot on the Labor vote during the election campaign as momentum swung towards the Coalition, but it’s been doing the opposite since the Coalition started heading south in November. So rather than the usual method of determining bias with reference to past performance in late-campaign polls, I’m plotting a trend of Essential’s deviation from BludgerTrack so its bias adjustments change dynamically over time. With Essential stuck at 51-49 to the Coalition while other pollsters are being fairly unanimous in having Labor leading 52-48, you can pretty much work out for yourself what the Essential bias adjustment currently looks like.

The second point is to do with rounding. While Essential’s two-party result was unchanged this week, the primary vote had the Coalition down two points, Labor down one and the Greens up one. Most of the time that would mean a one-point shift to Labor on two-party preferred, but this is one of those occasions where the shift went missing after the remainders were pared away. However, BludgerTrack doesn’t actually use pollsters’ published two-party results, instead determining primary vote totals and deriving a two-party result from them using 2013 election preferences. So the Essential result looks like a slight shift to Labor compared with last week, so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The third point is that Essential’s numbers are a two-week rolling average (though last week’s result, being the first from the year, was a sample for that week only), so any change that occurs in a given week is a bigger deal than the published numbers suggest.

So it is that BludgerTrack gives Labor a 0.5% gain on the two-party preferred projection and a boost of three on its seat tally. The state relativities haven’t changed much since last week, so the Labor seat gains are evenly spread, with one each provided by Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. Full results as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,463 comments on “BludgerTrack: to Labor”

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  1. GG, We went to all that BS plus hours of interviews with my PP. After all the interviews with the PP the only question he asked us was would we raise our children RC.
    The weekend engagement thingy descended into a farce when a whole bunch mutinied on the Sat night & went to the pub to protest the fact they wanted our full attention from 7am to 11pm.
    No one wanted to be there but presumed if they didn’t go the church wouldn’t marry them.

    How to win friends & influence people the Catholic way.

  2. My dog needs counselling about its fixation for peeing against trees. Can I please have a $200 voucher?

    I thought the country was skint thanks to those wicked Laborites who always manage to get us into immense debt so that the shining knights of the Liberals can rescue us.

    I see the CPI went up .8% already during the term of our new masters. I thought I was going to get around $400(?) thanks to the brilliance of this government. Haven’t seen that cheque yet, just an increased power bill.

  3. I’m sure none of us were surprised by Abbott’s in-depth analysis of the war in Syria

    Baddies vs Baddies and the Goodies need to do something.

    Does he think he’s talking to pre-schoolers?

    More of an example of his own lack of intellect.

    Who did he pay to sit his exams in Uni?

  4. Henry,

    Yes, glib responses are always the easiest.

    Given the high rate of divorce and the enormous cost that imposes on participants and the wider community, maybe an investment at the outset of a marriage can reap better social and budget dividends in the future.

    Of course, this depends on the quality of the counselling and how the programme is structured.

    However, I regard it as a broadly positive initiative with commendable goals.

  5. Getting counseling from a priest before you get married (as i did years ago, total waste of time)is like getting democracy advice from Kim Jong-il.

  6. silentmajority

    My partner and i actually had the full attention of the PP for one hour per week. He was quite a good person to talk to about life etc. he never put the catholic church going thing into the discussion. I never forget one session. We all sat around in our sofas, and as fhe discussion proceeded, both the PP and my partner fell asleep. I just sat there and observed them until they woke up not realising where they were. It was a hoot

  7. William, could we please have a little legend under each of the bludger track graphs?

    I think I have figured out that the first is 2PP, the second is primaries. But I am not sure what the legend under the Leadership ratings should be. Maybe Net satisfaction for the first, and Preferred PM for the second?

  8. Having been told that the welfare bill is unsustainable it’s amazing what this inept pathetic Govt can find to spend taxpayer money one.

  9. Bite me GG and take your blinkers off.
    As i say, counseling from unmarried priests is a total farce. Most of them have no clue of the pressures and strains of the real world that couples getting married in will face.
    It’s laughable but fine, whatever, just don’t waste my tax $ on it.

  10. AussieAchmed@22
    “Cosgrove to be GG perhaps”

    You call that a bombshell announcment, John Howard as GG, that would be a bombshell announcment.

  11. The only thing I remember from the pre-marriage conselling that we had to go through was a feeble attempt at an ice breaker from the minister – “no, it hasn’t got a bone in it”.

  12. Let’s see:

    (1) Morrison says no-one should know anything operational at all, at all, because it, ahem, gives vital information to the people smugglers. He says this with an arrogant smirk.
    (2) Morrison, having repeatedly promised that Australian would not threaten Indonesian sovereignty, trust us, says some bad things about Navy who have violated Indonesian territorial waters on several occasions. Morrison says sorry, it will not happen again. Ever. Trust us.
    (3) Then Morrison says that anyone who says bad things about the Navy is sledging them.
    (4) Navy assures Morrison that nothing happened. Trust us. Then it assures Morrison that if something bad did happen, it wasn’t Navy.
    (5) Griggs says it isn’t fair for people to criticise Navy because Navy personnel always behave professionally. Trust us. Griggs does not mention the massive current process involving a backlog of ADF personnel rape, sexual assault, physical assault and sundry acts of bastardry going back decades and only now being cleaned up with massive compensation costs to the taxpayer.
    (6) Ten asylum seekers point to some nasty burns and large bruises and say it was Navy.
    (7) Morrison says that if something did happen they did it to themselves to sabotage their boat. You can’t trust them, he reckons.
    (8) Abbott says, ‘Who do you believe?’ aping Howard’s ‘Who do you trust?’ It turns out that with children overboard you could not trust Howard, so maybe Abbott ought to rephrase that one.
    (9) Morrision says that since Navy did nothing at all and that nothing happened, the ABC is bad for drawing injured asylum seekers to the attention of the Australian public. Morrison seems to be implying that the injuries are not ‘substantiated’. The pictures do not appear to be photoshopped and people get a bit interested in what happened.
    (10) Morrison says there is no need for an investigation.
    (11) The Indonesians note that ten asylum seekers have come off an Australian-controlled boat with some nasty injuries announce an investigation. The Indonesian police have difficulty persuading themselves that all the injuries were self-inflicted.
    (12) Bishop announces that Australia will cooperate with the Indonesian investigation which Morrison says is not needed because nothing happened but if it did happen they did it to themselves, trust me.

    IMHO, because of serial breaches of trust by Morrison and the Navy, and because of a lack of accountability and transparency:

    (1) We know that something bad has happened to ten people.
    (2) We don’t know what it was.
    (3) We don’t know who did what to whom.

    What we do know is that:

    The Abbott Government is a slow-motion shambles.

    For some democratic accountability, transparency and information about what the Australia Government is doing, we have to go to the Indonesian Government and Indonesian MSM.

  13. GG – $200 will not buy much counselling.

    Its just another way to get taxpayer money into the pockets of a family member and the Church or christian right

  14. Henry

    The PP who conducted my counselling sessions basically gave advice as to being patient with each other. Listen to the other. Talk through any issues that arise. Respect each other. The usual commonsense stuff, that frankly people should know and understand by the time they are out of their teens.

  15. vic,

    We all take advice from the sources that are available to us. Family and friends are good if that advice is is accurate and reliable.

    I remember that old Telstra ad where the young son was told that the Chinese built their Great Wall to “keep the rabbits out”. Not great information!

    I’d also suggest people are employing retrospective deafness as to the quality of the advice given. If one is determined to ignore advice and simply belittle the source of that advice, then it is hardly likely that the advice is going to be heard.

  16. victoria 45 and 50

    I agree with both your posts.
    Nothing in the “interviews” before my marriages did anything useful. The spending on the white ceremony, which seems to be getting more and more “traditional” is IMO a complete waste. Funny how much more conservative we are now than the 70s and 80s.

  17. [I remember that old Telstra ad where the young son was told that the Chinese built their Great Wall to “keep the rabbits out”. Not great information!]

    Sounds like the rationale behind Operation Sovereign Borders.

  18. I’m not married (and in the highly unlikely event that I had done so it would have been a civil ceremony, not a church wedding) but I vividly recall my sister and her husband-to-be having to endure several hours of counselling (or lecturing as she called it) from his local priest whose sole interest amounted to whether they would be raising any progeny in the Catholic faith.

    They went along with it out of respect for his grandmother (a staunch Catholic) but I’m afraid had their fingers crossed behind their backs when they assured the priest that it would be so.

    They’ve never been back.

    If anyone contemplating marriage wants counselling, let them add it to the (possibly) enormous bill for the wedding and pay for it themselves, or is the next step to be that the Government will be funding that too as part of its family values platform?

  19. Something Scrot Morrison should note. Refugees heading to Greece from Turkey need rescuing but the Greek boat that responded started towing them back to turkey. Sound familiar ? It seems such actions are illegal.

    [Inquiry calls after migrants die under tow in Greece

    “It is highly likely that this action by the Greek coastguard was an illegal push-back operation rather than a rescue at sea,” said Karl Kopp, the NGO’s director of European affairs.
    Responding to the UN on Wednesday, the Greek coastguard insisted it had been trying to tow the boat, which had broken down, to Farmakonisi – and not to Turkey – after receiving a distress signal.]

  20. I have no problem with the concept of marriage counseling or even government funding it but I do have problems with wasting money or on premarriage counseling or counseling in the early years. Based on evidence problems times are when the oldest child is 17 although there are no doubt other trigger times.

    There is probably a sort of common sense wisdom in the 7 year itch, so perhaps 7 years, 14 years, 21 years and (in my case) 28 years may be the go for counselling.

  21. Henry,

    Consider yourself bitten and I’ll add twisted as a freebie!

    If you just are against any preventative solutions for a major social problem, then you are simply being reactionary.

    However, I’d be interested in your low cost alternatives.

  22. silentmajority

    I daresay the Catholic church are much more easy going these days. They will take the business with no strings attached. 😀

  23. Count me as assuming that this $200 caper is just a thinly disguised bribe to the holy roller lobby. Nobody whose advice on marriage is likely to be of any use is going to be available for $200.

  24. daretotread

    I have no problems with anyone receiving counselling for whatever is troubling them – I’ve been to a couple myself in days gone by (and had to pay for it myself) – but I disagree vehemently with a $200 government voucher for newlyweds, when for months this ratbag of a government has been telling us how dire the country is financially and how Labor left us with a $40 trillion black hole and the usual bull dust that Liberal governments have always spouted.

  25. Are Morrison and his 3* General authorising “leaks” to Murdoch media while continuing to keep their mouths shut publicly?

    [TWO of the asylum-seekers who claim to have been deliberately burned by Australian navy personnel during a turn-back operation had burns to their hands before the navy arrived. Immigration Minister Scott Morrison furiously rejected allegations aired yesterday that asylum-seekers whose boat was turned back were abused by Australian officials.]

  26. I also have problems withe whole counseling industry. I he juvenile counsellor sent by the hospital when my father died. it was irritating and offensive to me.

    I find that a 25 single girl giving advice on marriage to a 45 year old man or woman patently ridiculous, just as I find an unmarried priest giving advice on marriage ridiculous

  27. Mind you, if I could get a voucher to be entertained by someone like Father Ted and Father Maguire and their housekeeper I might think that worthwhile. 😉

  28. Fran – I agree with you. $200 is, alas, about a ten minute session with a counsellor. I exaggerate slightly but you don’t get much for that price. It’s pure crap from Andrews.

  29. lizzie

    [Nothing in the “interviews” before my marriages did anything useful. The spending on the white ceremony, which seems to be getting more and more “traditional” is IMO a complete waste. Funny how much more conservative we are now than the 70s and 80s.]

    So true. I dont understand it. I would much prefer the money being spent on seeing the world, or towards a roof over your head. So much better than for a few stressful hours wearing a dress, which is useless for any other occasion.

  30. Meanwhile, EU Commission announces 40% cut (on 1990 levels) by 2030, through domestic measures only. Thats massive.

    Oh and by the way, if you are one of the people who still think “economic growth” is preferable to climate change action, go take a peek in the mirror: you are looking at one of the shit-dumbest chumps ever to wear the label of Homo Sapiens.

    Inaction = NATIONAL BANKRUPTCY. No, it really does.

  31. citizen/guytaur

    It does indeed beg the question.

    If the asylum seekers sustained these injuries prior to the navy reaching them, why did they not proceed to give them medical attention?

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