BludgerTrack: 52.5.47.5 to Labor

With only one new poll to go on, the weekly BludgerTrack aggregate finds the trend to Labor that kicked in around November still hasn’t abated.

It’s been a disappointing week for poll junkies, with the phone pollsters including Newspoll evidently waiting until after the Australia Day long weekend before ending their New Year hibernation. Since this is an off-week in Morgan’s fortnightly cycle, that just leaves Essential Research. All told, there have only been three poll results published so far this year – two from Essential and one from Morgan – so you’re more than welcome to take BludgerTrack with a bigger-than-usual grain of salt for the time being. For what it’s worth though, the one new data point has driven the Coalition to a new low of 39.3% on the primary vote, and pushed Labor’s two-party lead to a new high of 52.5-47.5.

That might seem counter-intuitive given that the one new poll had the Coalition leading 51-49, but there are three factors which have made it otherwise. First, in adjusting the pollsters for their house biases, a unique approach has been adopted for Essential Research to acknowledge that its bias is in favour of stability, rather than one party or the other. For example, Essential overshot on the Labor vote during the election campaign as momentum swung towards the Coalition, but it’s been doing the opposite since the Coalition started heading south in November. So rather than the usual method of determining bias with reference to past performance in late-campaign polls, I’m plotting a trend of Essential’s deviation from BludgerTrack so its bias adjustments change dynamically over time. With Essential stuck at 51-49 to the Coalition while other pollsters are being fairly unanimous in having Labor leading 52-48, you can pretty much work out for yourself what the Essential bias adjustment currently looks like.

The second point is to do with rounding. While Essential’s two-party result was unchanged this week, the primary vote had the Coalition down two points, Labor down one and the Greens up one. Most of the time that would mean a one-point shift to Labor on two-party preferred, but this is one of those occasions where the shift went missing after the remainders were pared away. However, BludgerTrack doesn’t actually use pollsters’ published two-party results, instead determining primary vote totals and deriving a two-party result from them using 2013 election preferences. So the Essential result looks like a slight shift to Labor compared with last week, so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The third point is that Essential’s numbers are a two-week rolling average (though last week’s result, being the first from the year, was a sample for that week only), so any change that occurs in a given week is a bigger deal than the published numbers suggest.

So it is that BludgerTrack gives Labor a 0.5% gain on the two-party preferred projection and a boost of three on its seat tally. The state relativities haven’t changed much since last week, so the Labor seat gains are evenly spread, with one each provided by Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. Full results as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,463 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5.47.5 to Labor”

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  1. The Jakarta Post yesterday

    [Coordinating Political, Legal and Security Affairs Minister Djoko Suyanto has said the government of Australia under the leadership of Prime Minister Tony Abbott must acknowledge and understand Indonesian sovereignty and how it was breached by Australian naval ships.

    “On the repatriation of asylum seekers who enter a territory or a country (including Australia), the country must handle it as mandated by United Nations (UN) conventions,” Joko said in a statement on Wednesday as quoted by Antara news agency.]

    http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/01/22/australia-must-understand-ri-sovereignty-minister.html

  4. Greensborough Growler@86


    Henry,

    Consider yourself bitten and I’ll add twisted as a freebie!

    If you just are against any preventative solutions for a major social problem, then you are simply being reactionary.

    However, I’d be interested in your low cost alternatives.

    You seem to be missing the point again GG.
    I have no objection to pre-marriage counseling.
    Pre-marriage counseling from any religious instituion is a waste of time imo, as they have no expertise in the area but so be it, what ever floats peoples boat.
    The issue is why the taxpayer should have to fund it.
    You want to get married and have a little counseling before hand? Good for you but expect the tax payer to fund it.
    Why don’t we fund the cake too if it makes them feel better.
    The monsignor who gave us pre-marriage advice was a lovely old dear but seemed more intent on insuring my wife to be was a good cook and homemaker more than anything. I nodded off, after i laughed.

  6. Vic

    [I recall my own pre wedding counselling. As i was getting married in a church, it was compulsory. With all due respect, a priest’s advice re marriage is not going to cut it, but i attended these sessions anyway.]

    And weren’t they informative? Not!

  8. vic

    [If the asylum seekers sustained these injuries prior to the navy reaching them, why did they not proceed to give them medical attention?]

    Do you know the Navy didn’t?

  9. Isn’t this Government wonderful!

    They put up a plan for marriage counselling and then they get one of there own to organise it.

    Jobs for the boys and girls apparently!

  10. Funny coincidence – I have just been rung by a social worker from OH’s hospital to give advice and support on looking after OH and my mother. Being put through a series of questions about my home management makes me very stressed.

    The problem with these support services is that they don’t offer what is really needed. One example: houseworkers are not allowed to do anything “dangerous” such as climbing ladders to reach tall ceilings and windows, which is precisely the movement OH and I can no longer manage.

  11. Right now a few million Australian families are preparing for the kids to go back o school. A lot of families will be sending kids off on their very first day at big school. For those parents there might have been a bit of decision making earlier on – would they send their kids to a state school or a private one. If they decided on a state school the rest was easy – rock up to the local school on enrolment day and sign up.

    That could all change soon. Take a look at this piece from the latest issue of New Internationalist. It’s written by a British comedy writer, but it is deadly serious. It deals with the problems parents in the UK face to get their kids into schools. Privatised schools run as franchises by big companies, not enough school places to meet demand, parents having to go through application processes to determine if their children are acceptable or not and more horrors.
    This is the sort of thing the Abbott government has in mind for Australia.

    http://newint.org/columns/steve-parry/2014/01/01/i-want-some-more-schools/

  12. Henry,

    And you seem to be missing the point that pre-emptive action may save marriages a be an enormous social good. So, it’s better seen as money invested not wasted.

    Your point about religious orders being ineligible to proffer advice on marriage is just pure bigotry.

  13. Victoria

    Do you think so poorly of our sailors that they didn’t or wouldn’t have provided medical assistance?

    Our sailors have displayed their courage in assisting asylum seekers in the past. One example that comes to mind – Remember the bravery of the sailors when the refugee boat was set on fire and exploded?

  19. steady eddie might have been a bit off with his timing –

    [ Former defence chief Peter Cosgrove is tipped to be named as Australia’s new governor-general on Monday.

    Major General Cosgrove has long been the frontrunner to succeed Quentin Bryce in the position.

    News Corp Australia says Prime Minister Tony Abbott will appoint Maj Gen Cosgrove on Monday, the day after Australia Day. ]

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2014/1/23/national-affairs/cosgrove-tipped-be-named-gg

  22. About Kevin Andres and those counselling vouchers –

    Anyone wanting to get married in the Catholic Church will first have to go through compulsory preparation for marriage counselling. Oddly enough the cost of the courses available is around $250 – $275. I have a feeling that there would be many couples who decide they would rather spend that money on something better than a few sessions with a counsellor. They will decide to skip the church wedding and go elsewhere, or just skip getting married at all and live in sin. I’m sure the other mainstream churches also have a similar requirement.

    Andrews’ vouchers will pay most if the cost of these counselling programs. He must be hoping this policy will lead to more church weddings. it’s more of the Abbott government forcing narrow religious views on all of us. There is also, of course, that expected boost to the Andrews family budget as demand for Margaret Andrews’ marriage counselling services booms.

  25. http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Products/3310.0~2012~Chapter~Marriages?OpenDocument

    NUMBER OF MARRIAGES

    The 123,244 marriages registered in 2012 represented an increase of 1,492 (1.2%) from the 121,752 marriages registered in Australia in 2011. This is the highest number of marriages registered in a single year and continues the relatively steady increase in the number of marriages since 2001.]

    I wonder how much spending has been provided for from the budget for marriage counselling. If every couple used their vouchers, the bill would be $25 million. I can’t imagine the take-up rate will be very high so the spend will most likely only be a small fraction that. Whatever it costs, this is one program where no-one will ever be able to assess if taxpayers get value for money.

  26. Greensborough Growler@112


    Henry,

    And you seem to be missing the point that pre-emptive action may save marriages a be an enormous social good. So, it’s better seen as money invested not wasted.

    Your point about religious orders being ineligible to proffer advice on marriage is just pure bigotry.

    yes because all that pre-emptive action that has occurred previously worked a treat didn’t it…
    As for the religious orders (oh dear)yeah nah, I’m pretty confident they don’t offer much value at all in this process. They simply aren’t qualified to offer anything any other than home spun homilies.

  28. GG

    My problem with counselling in the early years is that have problems will not yet have emerged and the young couple will have all the regard for it as a 20 old does of superannuation – it is too far off and irrelevant.

    I also have problems with people providing counselling on matters with which they have NO experience. Unmarried girls giving advice on marriage or child rearing, priests giving advice on sex in marriage, men counseling women on sex or women counseling men.

    While I am not disputing that some such advice may at times be useful (there will be some wise old priests or exceptional young girls) but in general the idea is wacky and frankly a little insulting.

  29. We marry later and marry less…probably very wisely.

    [Although the number of marriages is now the highest recorded, the population has also increased substantially over time. As a result, the crude marriage rate is now lower than it was 20 years ago.

    In 2012, the crude marriage rate was 5.4 marriages per 1,000 estimated resident population, compared with 6.6 marriages per 1,000 estimated resident population in 1992.

    Between 1992 and 2002, the crude marriage rate declined from 6.6 to 5.3. Since 2002, the crude marriage rate has remained relatively steady.

    MEDIAN AGE AT MARRIAGE

    The median age at marriage for males in 2012 was 31.4 years, the same as that reported in 2011. The median age at marriage for females in 2012 was 29.4 years, an increase of 0.1 years since 2011. Median age at marriage has remained stable for both males and females in recent years.]

  31. CTar1@108

    vic

    If the asylum seekers sustained these injuries prior to the navy reaching them, why did they not proceed to give them medical attention?


    Do you know the Navy didn’t?

    It would clear it all up if morrison said so either way.

    secret squirrel approach is in itself keeping it all going and denying ADF its chance to show otherwise.

    As said here days ago all morrison had to do was keep transferring AS to PNG etc and let it take its course – but they just couldn’t help upping the ante and creating greater friction with Indonesia.

    [ Mr Morrison said no inquiry was needed because the claims were unsubstantiated ]

    Is no answer.

  32. [We marry later and marry less]

    I was about to point this out after your earlier comment. The counselling vouchers are just ideological nonsense from the Liberals.

    Just for once I’d like to see a coalition government that actually governed in the national interest.

  33. And seriously, if anyone thought there was a value in marriage counselling wouldn’t they just go off to a qualified counsellor to sort through their issues? Wouldn’t you get this partially rebated under Medicare or perhaps your private health fund? If not, wouldn’t it make more sense to include this as an item under Medicare?

  34. Henry,

    “yes because all that pre-emptive action that has occurred previously worked a treat didn’t it…”

    So should the Government allow the problems to fester or should they do something about it? I notice you seem to be totally reactionary on the topic without the skerrick of a positive idea of your own.

    You seem pretty good at cliches. What order are you from?

  35. And finally, why should it be available only to the married? If there’s a value in this then it should be available to all couples married or not. Again, this whole thing just stinks of culture war-style pork-barrelling.

  36. Religious ceremonies are on the way down…

    http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Products/3310.0~2012~Chapter~Marriages?OpenDocument

    [MARRIAGE CELEBRANTS

    The proportion of marriages performed by civil celebrants has increased over the past 20 years. In 2012, 71.9% of all marriages were performed by civil celebrants. Civil marriages have outnumbered religious ceremonies since 1999. In 2012, of the 34,613 marriages performed by ministers of religion, the most common rites used were Catholic (31.8%) followed by Anglican (16.2%).]

  37. [If the asylum seekers sustained these injuries prior to the navy reaching them, why did they not proceed to give them medical attention?

    Do you know the Navy didn’t?]

    Well we all know that under Abbott Australia has become the evil empire obviously. Everything they do is evil and not a grain of good can come out of Australia while Abbott remains PM.

    Besides it’s reported in the Jakarta Post so it must be true.

  38. dtt,

    I’d expect the counselling to be broader than “The what is this thing called, love” approach which many here are seem obsessed with.

    While sex is an important part of marriage, it’s not the only thing in the relationship.

    I see it has helpful that people have some inkling of what to expect in the most important relationship that people will have throughout their life.

  39. The media, getting things wrong as usual, have focused on just the ‘newly wed couples’ angle of the voucher scheme. It is also available for couples intending to marry and for defacto and same sex couples.

    [The $200 subsidy will be able to be used for marriage and relationship education and counselling, including parenting education, conflict resolution and financial management education.

    While the focus is on couples who are married or intending to marry, couples who are in a committed relationship, including same-sex couples, will also be eligible for the payment.

    Relationship counsellors have welcomed the scheme, saying it is important for couples to discuss their values ­before tying the knot.]
    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/federal-government-offers-newlyweds-200-voucher-to-attend-marriage-counselling/story-fnihsrf2-1226808063646

  40. GG

    That is fair enough. Just keep the taxpayer out of it when the Minister has a conflict of interest and is the Minister in charge of attacking the disabled

  42. guytaur,

    Either it’s good idea or it’s not. Focus on that before you go wandering off on your usual emotionally charged red herrings.

  43. In SA, Weatherill has announced State debt has blown out by $380M to more than a billion.

    Seven weeks before the election that has to be fatal.

    He’s gone.

  45. [Well we all know that under Abbott Australia has become the evil empire obviously. Everything they do is evil and not a grain of good can come out of Australia while Abbott remains PM.
    ]

    I know you are being a smartass but you are close to the money – this is the most ruthlessly dishonest and secretive government Australia had ever had and the incidents occurred, or didn’t occur inside a totally political action outside of the normal military chain of command. To make it worse Morrison first attacks the media for reporting it. Absurd but barely a ripple of protest from the fools he is demanding should self sensor. Not even an inquiry just mindless political denial without investigation. You have to be a bl00dy idi0t to side with the govt on this.

  50. Well I have to say that society would be much better off if couples tried harder to resolve problems rather than treating relationships like consumables that you dispose of once they get a bit worn and out of date. Having said that I’m not sure $200 worth of councelling is the answer.

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