BludgerTrack: 52.5.47.5 to Labor

With only one new poll to go on, the weekly BludgerTrack aggregate finds the trend to Labor that kicked in around November still hasn’t abated.

It’s been a disappointing week for poll junkies, with the phone pollsters including Newspoll evidently waiting until after the Australia Day long weekend before ending their New Year hibernation. Since this is an off-week in Morgan’s fortnightly cycle, that just leaves Essential Research. All told, there have only been three poll results published so far this year – two from Essential and one from Morgan – so you’re more than welcome to take BludgerTrack with a bigger-than-usual grain of salt for the time being. For what it’s worth though, the one new data point has driven the Coalition to a new low of 39.3% on the primary vote, and pushed Labor’s two-party lead to a new high of 52.5-47.5.

That might seem counter-intuitive given that the one new poll had the Coalition leading 51-49, but there are three factors which have made it otherwise. First, in adjusting the pollsters for their house biases, a unique approach has been adopted for Essential Research to acknowledge that its bias is in favour of stability, rather than one party or the other. For example, Essential overshot on the Labor vote during the election campaign as momentum swung towards the Coalition, but it’s been doing the opposite since the Coalition started heading south in November. So rather than the usual method of determining bias with reference to past performance in late-campaign polls, I’m plotting a trend of Essential’s deviation from BludgerTrack so its bias adjustments change dynamically over time. With Essential stuck at 51-49 to the Coalition while other pollsters are being fairly unanimous in having Labor leading 52-48, you can pretty much work out for yourself what the Essential bias adjustment currently looks like.

The second point is to do with rounding. While Essential’s two-party result was unchanged this week, the primary vote had the Coalition down two points, Labor down one and the Greens up one. Most of the time that would mean a one-point shift to Labor on two-party preferred, but this is one of those occasions where the shift went missing after the remainders were pared away. However, BludgerTrack doesn’t actually use pollsters’ published two-party results, instead determining primary vote totals and deriving a two-party result from them using 2013 election preferences. So the Essential result looks like a slight shift to Labor compared with last week, so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The third point is that Essential’s numbers are a two-week rolling average (though last week’s result, being the first from the year, was a sample for that week only), so any change that occurs in a given week is a bigger deal than the published numbers suggest.

So it is that BludgerTrack gives Labor a 0.5% gain on the two-party preferred projection and a boost of three on its seat tally. The state relativities haven’t changed much since last week, so the Labor seat gains are evenly spread, with one each provided by Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. Full results as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,463 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5.47.5 to Labor”

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  3. Greensborough Growler@138


    dtt,

    I’d expect the counselling to be broader than “The what is this thing called, love” approach which many here are seem obsessed with.

    While sex is an important part of marriage, it’s not the only thing in the relationship.

    I see it has helpful that people have some inkling of what to expect in the most important relationship that people will have throughout their life.

    Greensborough Growler@134


    Henry,

    “yes because all that pre-emptive action that has occurred previously worked a treat didn’t it…”

    So should the Government allow the problems to fester or should they do something about it? I notice you seem to be totally reactionary on the topic without the skerrick of a positive idea of your own.

    You seem pretty good at cliches. What order are you from?

    FFS get that mote out of your eye.
    Counsel ling is fine from whoever to whatever.
    It’s not the taxpayers job to fund it though is it.
    It is up to the individual to do whatever they think is necessary for a happy marriage, not the govt.
    got it?

  4. Diogenes@143

    In SA, Weatherill has announced State debt has blown out by $380M to more than a billion.

    Seven weeks before the election that has to be fatal.

    He’s gone.

    While I agree Labor will probably lose, I don’t see that as something that should have a lot of influence.

    It is probably just a measure of the collapse of Govt revenue as a result of the overall state of the economy. The Fed Govt should wear a lot of that and will voters expect the opposition to improve anything?

  5. guytaur,

    I don’t have much of either. Never have.

    But, thank you for asking.

    Anyway the topic is about Government sponsored counselling services. See if you can stay on subject.

  7. The Govt subsidizes the process of the family break up through the operation of the Family Court so something at the less pointy end is justifiable if it serves a preventative role.

  8. Come on davidwh, not like you to indulge in sarcasm.

    You are smart enough, and you certainly have been here long enough, to realise that these first few months of the Abbott government have not been good, and the Labor-leaning crew here are more than happy to dish out some square-up after 6 years of unrelenting “Everything wrong with the country is down to Labor” stuff.

    Of course, Oz is not the Evil Empire under Abbott, but sure as hell it is becoming one meaner place, and pickled in vinegar at the same time.

    I am at a loss to find one redeeming feature in this new government – no plans, not vision and no leadership.

    Not one of the conservatives who come here can actually tell us how we are now better off.

    We have had plenty of “Just wait and see and be patient” but for what?

  9. [The proportion of marriages performed by civil celebrants has increased over the past 20 years. In 2012, 71.9% of all marriages were performed by civil celebrants. Civil marriages have outnumbered religious ceremonies since 1999. In 2012, of the 34,613 marriages performed by ministers of religion, the most common rites used were Catholic (31.8%) followed by Anglican (16.2%).]
    Surely this exposes the fallacy of the framing of the questions regarding religion in the census.

  14. Couples needing help with their relationship can get a referral to a psychologist from their GP and they will get a Medicare rebate to cover most of the cost. The entitlement is ten sessions per calendar year. So why are we paying $20 million to provide a service we already provide?

  15. [I recall my own pre wedding counselling. As i was getting married in a church, it was compulsory. With all due respect, a priest’s advice re marriage is not going to cut it, but i attended these sessions anyway.]

    So did I. It was called a Pre-Cana, and it was mandated by the Catholic Church if you wanted to have a Catholic wedding.

  17. guytaur,

    You’re obviously hearing things from your imaginary friends.

    I didn’t say a thing and if I did you wouldn’t be able to hear me.

    You are very confused.

  20. Tricot

    You hit the nail on the head. Like him or loathe him, we knew what we were getting with Howard. Abbott spent years doing hi vis stunts when his time would have been better spent looking at policy. All we know so far is that he and his ministers think it is better that we don’t know. If he has something to say it will be on YouTube. What a farce

  22. I’m struggling to see how a $200 subsidy for marital counseling is a bad thing given the horrendous problems caused by divorces etc.

  25. shellbell@157


    The Govt subsidizes the process of the family break up through the operation of the Family Court so something at the less pointy end is justifiable if it serves a preventative role.

    Hardly analogous I wouldnt have thought.
    In order to legally divorce a legal process must be followed. It’s not you can send a letter to the spouse and say it’s all over, done and dusted.
    There is no legal requirement for counseling.
    Besides what about this supposed budget emergency?

  27. I was never in any doubt what we would get with TAPM. However I am a hopeful type and given a situation I am stuck with I continue to hope on the upside. However again, I do believe some of the criticism here at times gets blown out of proportion. Things in Australia are far from perfect but we aren’t falling apart … yet.

  29. [ Tricot
    Posted Thursday, January 23, 2014 at 10:53 am | Permalink

    Come on davidwh, not like you to indulge in sarcasm. ]

    ROFLMAO! 🙂

    Thats all the tories have left.

    Even if abbott gives a promise in writing he still does a backflip, ie – “We will keep the promise we made NOT the one people THOUGHT we made”.

    Then he backflips again and sort of, says he will keep the promise people thought we made – but he still doesn’t do it, just says he will.

    Turd polishing tories at it still. 🙂

  32. Dio

    The idea is to give the counseling to newly weds, which is about the silliest time of all. Perhaps three years after child 1 or when Kid 1 goes to high school or University. These are the stress points, not in the first blush of love.

  34. [Indonesian police now investigating the RAN for potential criminal activity.]

    Only if any alleged criminal activities happened during one of those intrusions into Indonesian territory otherwise Indonesia doesn’t have jurisdiction.

  35. BK,

    I’d guess that a higher proportion of first time marriages will be through the churches as most have specific exclusions for repeaters.

    Don’t see what any of that has to do with the Census, though.

  36. Of course the hypocrisy over the couples counselling thing is amazing. This from a government whose leader is lecturing at Davos for government to get out of the way.

  38. GG
    My point was that the census shows about the exact reverse. If a person is functionally religious it would be reasonable to assume that thaey would opt for a church wedding. The census questions do not address whether or not respondents actually practice the religion.

  39. guytaur@187

    @SwannyQLD: Relationship counselling obviously a good thing … What happened to #budgetemergency caused by too much Govt spending?

    Obviously the Government have another ’emergency’ on their hands.

    More ‘look over there’.

    abbott says one thing – within hours an opposite course of action is taken.

  42. [Only if any alleged criminal activities happened during one of those intrusions into Indonesian territory otherwise Indonesia doesn’t have jurisdiction.]

    Most countries have extraterritorial laws – I would be surprised if Australia would extradite sailors to Indonesia to face assault charges however.

    In any event leaving them to be abused by other sailors in the navy is probably a harsher punishment.

  43. Pre-marriage counselling was helpful to me.

    We had to fill in a never ending questionnaire/series of propositions which included concerns about the other’s acts.

    One proposition was: Are you concerned about your partner’s drug use?

    My wife applied a broad interpretation to that proposition by ticking yes because I was an occasional smoker. This caused a mild kerfuffle in the post questionnaire debrief with the counsellor of the view I might be using something harder.

    I quit smoking for good on my wedding day to avoid any future confusion.

  47. guytaur@190

    Some Good News

    @SOSAust: SOS paper flushes out Libs in Tassie.They agree to extend Gonski to 6 years, put in state funding and keep the model. http://t.co/lDcXKgZBEC

    What the Libs in Tassy (facing an election they shouldn’t lose, want), may not be what abbott/ pyne agree to.

    Hope they can be made to keep their word (! Ha comedy gold) but will believe it when it happens.

  48. davidwh

    [otherwise Indonesia doesn’t have jurisdiction.]

    They are free to investigate whatever they want.

    If they can do anything ‘legally’ as a result of their investigation is a totally different thing.

  49. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/23/welfare-review-could-recommend-stricter-conditions-on-carer-pensions
    [Carers’ allowances and payments may also be targeted, with reviewers saying there need to be more checks to see if carers are actually doing the job they are claiming payments for. The payments have been identified as one of the fastest growing parts of the welfare sector.

    More conditions could be introduced for people older than 55 claiming Newstart and time limits could be applied to youth payments, with young people potentially losing Newstart payments within a set timeframe if they do not comply with certain conditions.

    Newstart and the disability support pension have already been revealed as targets for reform in the overhaul, although the review encompasses the entire welfare system. Only the aged pension has been guaranteed not to change.]

    Two points here:
    1. How will they check the carers are doing their “job”? Inspections? Questionnaires given to the “patient”? Visit to the doctor for re-assessment?

    2. “Only the aged pension has been guaranteed not to change.” That does not rule out holding the pension at current rate for 3 years – in effect a reduction.

  50. Davidwh

    [Well we all know that under Abbott Australia has become the evil empire obviously. Everything they do is evil and not a grain of good can come out of Australia while Abbott remains PM.]

    The hyperbole ill-becomes you. What we have in charge is a gang of clueless, reactionary political scoundrels who traded on right-wing shibboleths to supplant a centre-right regime and are now doing what they feel they must to keep that reality from becoming general knowledge amongst the sections of the populace who switched to them in 2013.

    The cultural consequences of that state of affairs are now playing out in a range of policy areas including of course those concerned with repelling applications for asylum from people currently in Indonesia. The Navy has been seriously affected by this she cause operational separation between the executive and their leadership has been obliterated by OSB.

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