Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

The Christmas-New Year poll drought ends courtesy of a new result from Morgan, which suggests little has changed over the break.

Morgan has released what it describes as the “first major public opinion poll of 2014”, though it could just as easily have dropped the “major”. It provides no indication of festive cheer softening attitudes towards the new government, showing the Coalition down 1.5% on the primary vote to 39% with Labor also down half a point to 38%, the Greens up half a point to 10.5% and the Palmer United Party steady on 3.5%. That translates to a 53-47 lead to Labor on 2013 preference flows and 52.5-47.5 on the headline respondent-allocated figure. As has been Morgan’s form for a while now, this poll combines its regular weekend face-to-face polling with SMS component, in this case encompassing 2527 respondents from the two weekends past. The first Essential Research result for the year should be with us tomorrow.

UPDATE: Little change also from Essential Research, which opens it account for the year with a result from the polling period of Friday to Monday only, rather than its two-week rolling average. This has the Coalition leading 51-49, with the Coalition, Labor and the Greens each up a point on the primary vote to 45%, 38% and 8% respectively, with the Palmer United Party steady on 4% and others down two to 6%. Also featured are the monthly personal ratings, showing a slight improvement for Tony Abbott – up two on approval to 47% and down three on disapproval to 43% – and a softening for Bill Shorten, down four to 35% and up one to 32%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Abbott’s lead shifting from 43-33 to 42-31. The poll also finds strong opposition to fees for GP visits, with 28% approving and 64% disapproving, and 47% support for Australia becoming a republic at the end of the Queen’s reign against 32% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,586 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

  1. Talking about yanks…

    Only one cruiser has ever fired upon Australia and scored a hit.

    Clue: The very same cruiser POQ’ed when the HMAS Canberra was being short to pieces by the IJN.

    Another clue: When the Battle of Savo Island was over that very same cruiser opened fire on a US destroyer.

    What was the name of the cruiser? Which bit of Australia did it hit?

  2. I had the misfortune to meet with a bloke who argued that all the costs associated with combatting climate was a in the $billions and that it was too expensive.

    When I asked how much it would cost by nothing and he was wrong. He countered by saying that was not a valid argument.

    I was left speechless, cost is a factor for doing something but not a factor if we do nothing and then find it was wrong to nothing.

  3. [A new book sheds light on how Roger Ailes and Fox News have created a culture of intense fear — and then capitalised on it.
    http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/01/15/a-political-organisation-that-employs-journos-how-fox-sets-the-agenda/ ]

    So this is what Murdoch means by ‘fair and balanced’

    [One of the book’s key planks is Ailes’ own definition of the Fox News mantra “fair and balanced”. An Ailes associate tells Sherman the boss’ meaning of “fair and balanced” is not to tell both sides of a story, but that Fox acts as a balance to the rest of the media. Yes, Ailes perceives Fox News and its definition of “fair and balanced” as a political messaging device.]

  4. Mexicanbeemer

    hockey is probably a bit wary of auditors after his adventures with some mob from Perth left him with a big hole in his pre-election costing and they were disciplined by their professional body for providing advice they were not qualified to give.
    an episode hockey would almost certainly not like to be reminded of

  5. People service their car or have medical check-up just in case.

    But aren’t prepared to “service” the air we breath, the water we drink, the oceans we fish and the land we harvest

  6. So the only thing the enquiry into the audit found out today was that the Govt were providing guidance about the TOR.

    Oh plus the BCA is now in favour and the AIG sucks.

  7. Mr Shepherd said there were no “no-go areas” for the commission, and also refused to rule out recommending the sale of public assets or welfare changes.

    Past privatisations have been overwhelmingly successful, he said, and any future asset sales should be based on facts.
    ===========================

    very few privatisations of government services have made things better for the taxpayer.

    majority have only added to the profit lines of corporations and the bonuses of the executives…and taxpayers still fork out millions to assist that to happen

  8. Believe it or not!!

    But when quizzed on whether changing the GST could be recommended by the commission, Mr Shepherd said: “I’m not ruling anything in or out. Everything is on the table.

    “The government is well aware of the revenue side of the situation and it’s up to them to make the decisions as to what part of any solution that revenue would be,” he said.

    A spokeswoman for Treasurer Joe Hockey said the GST would not change under the coalition, “full stop, end of story”.
    =============================

    NOT

  9. Now that the Coalition has stopped the boats, why does the Labor Party and Shorten want him to hold more press conferences announcing no boat arrivals?

    This is Labor logic for you folks…

  10. CM@911

    [ I also think the policy of abolishing tickets was a bit short sighted and disadvantageous to visitors to the city, especially considering Melbourne tries to pride itself on how welcoming it is to visitors.]

    Only just went back to last nights stuff. Yup, the lack of ticket capability is not good. I see people every day buying tickets for short or unexpected journeys when they dont normally use public transport.

    Funnily enough there was a girl i knew years ago who was a bit involved in the Myki thing from the vendors side. Kins of person who could be very persuasive. Some one i liked quite a lot, but would never trust her with other peoples money.

  11. [Now that the Coalition has stopped the boats, why does the Labor Party and Shorten want him to hold more press conferences announcing no boat arrivals?]

    ST, how does an 80% reduction in boats (if you can believe Mossiscum which is a little doubtful given his aversion to transparency) since the ALP’s PNG/Nauru program was introduced constitute stopping the boats??

    Abbott is clearly at least 20% short of his own KPI to date, and that after trashing relations with the RI and being shown to be a liar as regards his pre-election commitments to transparency.

  12. This was an important piece of information uncovered by the Senate Committee. This is where the Fib scumbags are going. Charter f*((_ing schools and right-wing curriculum, Pyne,, you lying bahstard.

  13. [ST, how does an 80% reduction in boats (if you can believe Mossiscum which is a little doubtful given his aversion to transparency) since the ALP’s PNG/Nauru program was introduced constitute stopping the boats?? ]

    It was actually an 80% since Operation Sovereign Borders was implemented.. had nothing to do with Labor who had 6 Years to stop the boats.

    I’m sure Labor were going to stop the boats… right after they delivered their budget surplus.

    [Abbott is clearly at least 20% short of his own KPI to date]

    With Zero Boats in 4 Weeks, that’s looking like the average will be heading towards 100% shortly.

    I still want someone to explain why Bill Shorten wants a press conference by Morrison every week announcing the same thing he would have announced the last 4 Weeks… there were no illegal boat arrivals… the boats have stopped… the Coalition has won the war.

  14. We have no idea whether or not boats have stopped. Obviously they were still coming last week, as two were apparently turned around.

    Rudd’s PNG fix will be the main influence. No one takes the turnarounds seriously, least of all the RAN – morale at all time low.

    And I love the Libs hilarious idea of “savings”: closing 3 onshore detention centres for $89m, expanding offshore for $3b.

  15. Rua
    They uncovered Boston Consulting Group. This will warrant close scrutiny. imo/
    Pyne talking about redoing the curriculum. A right-wing group with history of charter school and privatised curriculum, probono work for the Abbott Audit commission.
    I say watch that space, watch it carefully.
    Try this comment:
    http://dianeravitch.net/2012/07/12/what-is-the-boston-consulting-group/comment-page-1/#comment-9361
    [inda
    July 12, 2012 at 12:48 pm

    Here’s a good summary of their goals:

    Boston Consulting Group (BCG) has been around the block or two when it comes to corporate schooling, even though it profits from other consulting and includes as alumni Mitt Romney, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and hedge fund manager John Paulson.* Along with Broad Foundation support, the consulting firm worked on Delaware’s Vision 2015 for a longer school day in 2007, designed a business plan for the North Carolina New Schools Project, and have left footprints in Cleveland, Arizona, Seattle, Chicago, Memphis, and New Orleans. BCG, as Daniel Denvir has noticed, recommended “that New Orleans, which has decimated its teachers’ union and put most schools under charter control, create the exact same species of achievement networks in 2006” as the ones proposed for Philly.**

    Since at least 2007, BCG has been working on linking teacher pay to student test scores and so-called academic achievement for the Dallas Independent School District. Under J. Puckett’s Texas office leadership, BCG has also struck a deal with Uplift Education, where Jeb Bush’s son, George P., sits on the board of directors. Puckett and Phil Montgomery, Uplift’s founding member, both sit on the board of Commit, an IBM, Bank of America, Bank of One-funded school group. Puckett was also a player in the Exxon Mobile/Gates Foundation-hyped National Math and Science Initiative (page 27, PDF box).

    BCG heavily promotes online learning in K-12 and college. In “Unleashing the Potential of Technology in Education,” the consulting firm calls for an “aligned set of educational objectives, standards, curricula, assessments, interventions, and professional development,” all centered around online technology. Deeming charter schools the leaders of internet schooling, the “study’s” authors quote online profiteer and Democrat for Education Reform’s Tom Vander Ark, praises Rocketship for hiring low wage non-teachers, and thanks their senior advisor, Margaret Spelling, Bush’s U.S. Secretary of Education. The” report” also praises the conflict-of-interest-laden School of One in NYC and KIPP’s BetterLesson program.

    Read full article and comments:

    http://btownerrant.com/2012/05/18/in-the-city-of-corporate-love-and-beyond-the-boston-consulting-group-gates-and-the-filthy-rich/ ]

  16. Is this stuff serious or a farce or seriously farcical.

    [Campbell said allegations of mistreatment by asylum seekers on a boat allegedly towed back to the Indonesian maritime border by the Australian navy had been investigated and he was “very satisfied with the professional conduct of our people”.

    He said this did not amount to a confirmation that the towbacks had actually occurred and that the investigation had not included any contact with the asylum seekers, now back in Indonesia, who had made the allegations.]

    So the towback may of happened so we did an investigation into something that didn’t or did happen and we did not talk to the people who complained because they do or don’t exist and may or may not be in Indonesia if they ever existed, which we are not saying they did.

    Bet the smugglers know what happened.

  17. [So the towback may of happened so we did an investigation into something that didn’t or did happen and we did not talk to the people who complained]

    Why would we talk to those making the allegations when the allegations were unabated horse crap?

    [Bet the smugglers know what happened.]

    Well that’s the problem with the left… your hate of this country and it’s government is so great you believe the lies and deceit of criminal people smuggler gangs who make a living off this vile industry.

    Well the Coalition is shutting it down once and for all and this really is the last hurrah from the leftwing in this country… you guys better pick up a new “Go To” for your moral grandstanding because this ones been shut down for good. You guys lost.. deal with it.

  18. [Bet the smugglers know what happened]

    I noticed this last week what an idiot Morrison is to say he won’t comment and then comment. I would double check if the incompetent lying coward told me today was Wedneaday.

  19. How long before we see this lying inept Abbott govt back flip on the GST and run around like pathetic little school yard bullies screeching
    “The CoA made me do it, its not my fault..they made me”.

  20. Still can’t get my head around the secrecy imposed by the Abbott govt on “boats”. They claim having a press conference is aiding the people smugglers.

    Well this pair of filth spent all those years screaming from the top of the hills “boats boats look at all the boats”

    Happily and willingly providing assistance to the smugglers..what a bunch of filthy treasonous hypocrites these Liberals are!!

  21. Guaranteed next term if they win unless they get around to it sooner. The big greedy end of town has Abbott in its pocket and they want your money. They want a BIG GST rise to fund corporate tax cuts – don’t think for a minute that a GST rise would be used to provide government services.

  22. MB

    [How is this heatwave evidence of climate change?]

    Your wording of the question is faulty. This heatwave may well be evidence of climate change but we aren’t yet in a position to know that with certainty. What we do know is that more frequent and more intense heatwaves than was the case even thirty years ago are one feature of a warming world. Whether this heatwave would have occurred as it has without the Charney forcing is beside the point. The salient point is that heatwaves indistinguishable in real time from those driven by Charney forcing and which are similar to this one or perhaps worse will occur more often. We need to ask ourselves whether we like that state of affairs or not and if we don’t, what we can do about it. In a way, if we could show with confidence that this was a heatwave we’d have got anyway, that’s even worse, because it means that those extra ones are still in the pipeline. We should hope this is an AGW-driven event.

    Given that his comes in a context of a record hottest year for Australia in a world reporting fewer record minima than even during the 1980s and many more record maxima it’s a pretty good bet that this heatwave was indeed AGW-driven. But either way, this heatwave should concentrate our minds on the need for effective policy, because amongst 1st world countries, Australia’s position is particularly vulnerable to climate change, and we are adjacent to a number of other jurisdictions that are also highly vulnerable.

  23. [1386…Mex

    briefly

    How is this heatwave evidence of climate change?]

    There should be a mathematical answer to that question. Obviously, heat waves in themselves are not new. But if they are more frequent and/or more extreme, then that may reflect a change in the pattern of their incidence – that is, signify a change in the climate rather than just a fluctuation in temps within the historical range.

    This is a pronounced heatwave. It would be interesting to know just how pronounced it is in statistical terms: just how likely it is that such heatwaves reflect normal fluctuation, and how likely they are to reflect forced climate change.

    The CC thesis is that we should see more frequent high-intensity events and (viewed in secular terms) non-reversing upward shifts in the temp patterns across the whole range from the lows through to the highs and in the mean seasonal temps. And this is what we are seeing. The record in Perth is really a case in point.

    In Perth, the mean number of days each year when the maximum equals or exceeds 40.0 is 3.4 days, including an average of one January day each year.

    But it has been relatively unusual for the max to equal or exceed 42. In the years from 1897 to 2010, this occurred in the month of January in just 8 years on a total of 10 days. (12 Jan 1934, 29 Jan 1956, 18 Jan 1961, 15 Jan 1968, 4 Jan 1969, 5 Jan 1969, 12 Jan 1978, 31 Jan 1984, 30 Jan 1991, 31 Jan 1991).

    http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/wa/20060103.shtml

    Since 2010, we have had January max temps of 42 degrees or above on six occasions in the four years 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2014. The max exceeded 42 on three days in 2010. The January max temp also equaled or exceeded 41.0 in 2008 (41.9), 2009 (41.8) and 2013 (41.1 at Pearce Airbase), 2014 (41.0 on 12 Jan). This succession of max temps has never previously been recorded for Perth.

    Heatwaves also appear to coincide with higher mean temps. So in Perth, where heatwaves through December to March are becoming more common, in 2012:

    […mean annual maximum temperatures were close to 1.0 °C above average and most sites observed one of their hottest years on record; Perth Metro observed its equal hottest year in 116 years of record with 2011, whilst Perth Airport recorded its third hottest year in 68 years of record, with 2011 being the hottest, and 2010 being the second hottest.

    Almost all months in 2012 were warmer than normal across Perth, with the exception of near average maximum temperatures in February and November. The year began with very hot conditions in January and heatwaves (three or more consecutive days with maximum temperatures of 35 °C or higher) were experienced from the 11th to 13th, 18th to 21st, and 24th to 28th for many sites. The daily maximum temperature of 43.1 °C at Swanbourne on the 26th was the hottest day at that site for any month in its 20 years of record, and the hottest day in the Perth metropolitan area during 2012. Heatwaves were also experienced during February from the 8th to 10th, and 20th to 22nd; and twice during March between from the 4th to 6th, and 9th to 12th. A prolonged heatwave of seven consecutive days of over 37 °C was registered at the end of year between the 25 and 31 December for most sites. The seven consecutive days of maximum temperature of 37 °C or higher between 25 and 31 December 2012 at Perth Metro has only been matched on two previous occasions (31 December to 6 January 1962 and 15 to 21 February 1988).

    Perth Metro recorded seven heatwaves (three or more consecutive days with maximum temperatures of 35 °C or higher) during 2012, the second highest number recorded in any one year behind the nine in 1978. The two heatwaves in March 2012 were of note as March had seen two heatwaves on only one other occasion (1988) since records began in 1897.]

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/wa/archive/2012.perth.shtml

    Reviewing 2013 the BOM observed:

    [Perth Metro observed an annual mean daily maximum temperature of 25.5 °C in 2013, which was its third hottest year in 115 years of record, behind the equal record hot years of 2012 and 2011. Remarkably, the last four years (2010-2013) have been the four hottest in Perth Metro’s 115 year recording history, the order being 2012 and 2011 (25.7 °C), 2013 (25.5 °C), and 2010 (25.3 °C).]

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/wa/perth.shtml

    Of course, this summer is not over by a long shot and we expect a return to heatwave conditions this weekend in Perth.

  24. With regard to BCG, Charter Schools and outsourced curriculum and online learning in Australia, and the L/NP Abbott gov’t.

    Don’t ever say I didn’t warn youse.

  25. Stop arguing with denialists, it is a waste of good energy better spent on promoting remission and adaptation. The way their ‘brains’ work, the more you try to convince them, the more entrenched their attitudes become.

    It is better to just let them cook until they agree that the water is boiling.

  26. [Since 2010, we have had January max temps of 42 degrees or above on six occasions in the four years 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2014. The max exceeded 42 on three days in 2010. The January max temp also equaled or exceeded 41.0 in 2008 (41.9), 2009 (41.8) and 2013 (41.1 at Pearce Airbase), 2014 (41.0 on 12 Jan). This succession of max temps has never previously been recorded for Perth.]

    Record breaking and constant extremes are the new normal.

  27. Briefly,

    Thank you for that very detailed answer, The part about more days above 42c does seem to be backed up by memory as previous heatwaves appear to have shown a gradual increase in temps yet this one appears to be more intense with more days closer to the mid-40s which is why i am interested to see if the CC model is showing this as part of CC.

    It will be interesting to see what research findings come about from this week.

    We know that if Northern Australia’s weather was to migrate south increasing the dryness, and it would appear from this event and a similar hot spell last year when the monsoon was delayed that after a decade or so of changing winter weather pattens we might now be starting to see summer weather pattens change.

    In the past it has been easier to identify changes in the winter weather pattens as they have become more mild over the past decade or so.

  28. Thanks Fran,

    Not sure about faulty 😉

    The question which briefly kindly answered was if there had been in particular research into heatwaves as summer weather pattens don’t appear to have changed int he same way as winter clearly as although in briefly response there was reference to increased number of days (In Perth)over 42c

    As you rightly point out if Australian summers were to regularly start seeing temps in the mid 40s for more than just a handful of days a year or even breaking the 50c mark would in the long run have a major impact on the environment, society and the economy.

  29. [Jenny Mikakos MP
    With power outages likely let’s remember Napthine Govt has done everything possible to make wind & solar power unattractive #springst]

  30. [Australia has turned back another boat which Indonesian authorities believe was unseaworthy, leaving local villagers to rescue stranded asylum seekers from the ocean.
    Indonesian authorities have quoted the asylum seekers on board saying Australian navy personnel fired shots as part of the operation to turn around the boat carrying 25 people.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-turns-back-asylum-seeker-boat-from-indonesia-20140115-30vds.html#ixzz2qSkNrVvA

  31. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@1435

    With regard to BCG, Charter Schools and outsourced curriculum and online learning in Australia, and the L/NP Abbott gov’t.

    Don’t ever say I didn’t warn youse.

    Is BCG the same Boston Consulting Group that the Victorian State Labor Govt got to write it’s Mental Health policy a few years ago?

    This came as a complete shock to the ALP Health Policy Committee who were not even asked to make a submission and only found out about it after the report was printed.

    I don’t know if the Vic Govt made any other use of BCG or if any other State of Federal Labor Govts have, but it would not surprise me.

    Govts are in bed with all the big consultancies and there is an unhealthy interchange of senior personnel between the consultancies and State Govt Depts.

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