Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

The Christmas-New Year poll drought ends courtesy of a new result from Morgan, which suggests little has changed over the break.

Morgan has released what it describes as the “first major public opinion poll of 2014”, though it could just as easily have dropped the “major”. It provides no indication of festive cheer softening attitudes towards the new government, showing the Coalition down 1.5% on the primary vote to 39% with Labor also down half a point to 38%, the Greens up half a point to 10.5% and the Palmer United Party steady on 3.5%. That translates to a 53-47 lead to Labor on 2013 preference flows and 52.5-47.5 on the headline respondent-allocated figure. As has been Morgan’s form for a while now, this poll combines its regular weekend face-to-face polling with SMS component, in this case encompassing 2527 respondents from the two weekends past. The first Essential Research result for the year should be with us tomorrow.

UPDATE: Little change also from Essential Research, which opens it account for the year with a result from the polling period of Friday to Monday only, rather than its two-week rolling average. This has the Coalition leading 51-49, with the Coalition, Labor and the Greens each up a point on the primary vote to 45%, 38% and 8% respectively, with the Palmer United Party steady on 4% and others down two to 6%. Also featured are the monthly personal ratings, showing a slight improvement for Tony Abbott – up two on approval to 47% and down three on disapproval to 43% – and a softening for Bill Shorten, down four to 35% and up one to 32%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Abbott’s lead shifting from 43-33 to 42-31. The poll also finds strong opposition to fees for GP visits, with 28% approving and 64% disapproving, and 47% support for Australia becoming a republic at the end of the Queen’s reign against 32% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,586 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

  1. victoria:

    HAs the Victorian govt done as the Barnett govt tried to do in removing subsidies for domestic solar panels and feedback to the grid?

    Barnett had to back down on that IIRC.

  2. Confessions

    This is an example of the Napthine Govt attitude

    [10 December 2013
    Hundreds of Victorians rallied at Parliament House today calling for the Napthine Government to cancel plans for a brown coal allocation and coal export industry for the Latrobe Valley.

    At the rally, a petition signed by 8000 Victorians opposed to a coal allocation and exports was presented to the Parliament and will be tabled this week. ]

    http://environmentvictoria.org.au/media/hundreds-rally-calling-napthine-government-abandon-plans-coal-allocations-and-exports

  3. Briefly,

    n Perth, the mean number of days each year when the maximum equals or exceeds 40.0 is 3.4 days, including an average of one January day each year.

    But it has been relatively unusual for the max to equal or exceed 42. In the years from 1897 to 2010, this occurred in the month of January in just 8 years on a total of 10 days. (12 Jan 1934, 29 Jan 1956, 18 Jan 1961, 15 Jan 1968, 4 Jan 1969, 5 Jan 1969, 12 Jan 1978, 31 Jan 1984, 30 Jan 1991, 31 Jan 1991).

    http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/wa/20060103.shtml

    Since 2010, we have had January max temps of 42 degrees or above on six occasions in the four years 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2014. The max exceeded 42 on three days in 2010. The January max temp also equaled or exceeded 41.0 in 2008 (41.9), 2009 (41.8) and 2013 (41.1 at Pearce Airbase), 2014 (41.0 on 12 Jan). This succession of max temps has never previously been recorded for Perth.

    do you mind if I use these stats on another forum ?

  4. victoria:

    Interesting that Liberal governments can play the jobs card when it comes to big polluters, but not when it comes to jobs with car manufacturers.

    Those vested interests will get them every time.

  5. Bemused
    It would not surprise me. No party is immune to these corporate combine harvesters.

    We need transparency and community involvement in the processes. If BCG or any like it were involved in that review than it would have been a disaster for the people at the bottom of the heap. We vote parliamentarians in to to their job, not outsource it.

  6. briefly:

    I keep meaning to look at the BoM records for severe weather events during winter, but each weekend keep forgetting. My own anecdotal observation is that those extreme winter storms that the BoM advise “happen 2 to 3 times a year” are actually more like 3 – 5 times a year these days.

  7. [1462
    confessions

    briefly:

    I keep meaning to look at the BoM records for severe weather events during winter, but each weekend keep forgetting. My own anecdotal observation is that those extreme winter storms that the BoM advise “happen 2 to 3 times a year” are actually more like 3 – 5 times a year these days.]

    The records are a goldmine…feel like putting on my hardhat and wielding a pick…:)

  8. Well, the flow of boats has basically mostly halted, but no reason to be complacent as the General said.

    I’m a little nonplussed why Labor/Green are saying the boats are “hidden” and Mr Morrison is lying.

    That would also mean General Campbell of the ADF is lying.

    Those kind of assertions would be treason, in my books.

  9. Briefly, although max temperatures tell a story, I think night time temperatures would be more telling. My house (the old part)used to never get above 24 degrees with the 1950’s extension never getting over 28.

    It gradually crept up over the years and now we have a air conditioner in the extension. Today the old part (not air conditioned) got up to 28 and the extension with the air conditioner running all day, reached 28.5. The problem is that in the old days the night time temperatures used to be lower, giving us a chance to cool the house over night. Last night it got down to 27 (Melbourne) and tonight it will get down to 26. There is not much scope to cool the house with those elevated temperatures.

    I must check the BOM myself to see if this is supported by their data.

    You could argue that the air conditioner and the cost of running it are a cost to me of the changing climate, along with the increase in my insurance premiums and increased cost of food (due to reduced supply because of unseasonal weather)

  10. Evening all. The mercury didn’t reach 45 today (although it still was very hot), giving me hope that it won’t reach 46 tomorrow. Still, I hope everyone in heatwave affected areas of the country are well.

  11. Good thing treason in actual law books is something beyond calling a politician or a general a liar.

    Otherwise we might be living in some fascist hoon-TA.

  12. Apparently the Australian Navy has decided we have a new enemy — boats. Warning shots have been fired. Australia is starting a shooting war with the persecuted of our region.

    It ought to be unthinkable.

  13. briefly:

    The BoM rocks. My fear is the numpty coalition govt will do something stupid and either privatise it, or try to force it to abandon climate modelling and the like.

  14. [Those kind of assertions would be treason, in my books.]

    Well, fortunately, in this country they’re not. Your style of thinking is more at home in places like North Korea. I suggest moving there, if our free society bothers you so much.

  15. pretty one

    I don’t remember ever swearing allegiance to either the General or Mr Morrison. Neither are the Head of State of Australia. Mr Morrison is a part of the government, not the government itself.

    So I’m not sure why questioning the veracity of either gentleman would be treason.

    If so, people who threatened to stuff a former PM in a chaff bag and throw them in the ocean would be first up against the wall, I’d have thought.

  16. Fran, how do you know shots were fired? From what I read it was alleged by the asylum speakers that shots were fired. I would like to see evidence of this before accepting it as fact.

  17. Carey:

    I see from the news that you SAers still had a pretty scary day fire-wise.

    There will be more of the same to come next week, if Perth forecasts are any indication. 🙁

  18. “Labor really don’t learn do they”

    Sean
    I tend to think an opposition party has to do what it has to do – that’s politics.
    But to indicate General Campbell is lying – well, that’s another kettle of fish. Australia has descended into something unpleasant with that.

    Most importantly, we are (hopefully, please God) avoiding further tragedies on the ocean and avoiding the need for detention centres into the future.

  19. [I see from the news that you SAers still had a pretty scary day fire-wise.]

    Yes, that’s true. The appearance of lightning across the state hasn’t helped either.

    [There will be more of the same to come next week, if Perth forecasts are any indication.]

    Oh dear! I hope not! Well, it looks like we’re getting a few days of mild weather over the weekend. As for the rest of next week, I don’t know.

  20. I linked this on previous page

    Australia has turned back another boat which Indonesian authorities believe was unseaworthy, leaving local villagers to rescue stranded asylum seekers from the ocean.
    Indonesian authorities have quoted the asylum seekers on board saying Australian navy personnel fired shots as part of the operation to turn around the boat carrying 25 people.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-turns-back-asylum-seeker-boat-from-indonesia-20140115-30vds.html#ixzz2qSkNrVvA

  21. The Union Heavy guy on Christmas Island has been reporting every arrival there, so correct it’s impossible to hide arrivals.

    The conspiracy theory that the Government is somehow hiding boat arrivals is the stuff of Green Left Weekly or Socialist Alliance level thinking.

  22. ST:
    [Shorten is demanding Morrison hold a weekly press conference to announce no boat arrivals.]

    No he’s demanding Morrison come clean about thongs like the Australian Navy shooting at a boat containing unarmed and defenceless children. He withheld this disgusting and cowardly action form the public and the media today.

  23. [The Union Heavy guy on Christmas Island has been reporting every arrival there]

    That ‘Union Heavy guy on Christmas Island’ is the democratically elected shire president of CI.

  24. Mr Morrison was the one who decided that there should be weekly press briefings, rather than ad hoc announcements.

    Now Mr Morrison has decided there should be ad hoc announcements.

    Therefore the previous government’s approach to press conferences was right and Mr Morrison’s wrong — that is, if you hold the belief that Mr Morrison intends to brief the press even ad hoc-ly.

    My own belief is that Mr Morrison has abandoned the idea of holding press conferences altogether, which would surely make him unique in the world of politics.

  25. “The conspiracy theory that the Government is somehow hiding boat arrivals is the stuff of Green Left Weekly or Socialist Alliance level thinking.”

    The ALP/Greens indicate they think Mr Morrison is lying and therefore lying in parliament.

    That would be a truly serious situation.

  26. fess
    But he isn’t kissing Abbott’s aske. He is putting his community first. Ergo, he has to be a Union Heavy Guy democratically elected shire president of CI.

  27. [I thought it was pretty funny. In much the same vein of those who suggested Abbott could have committed treason over the Slipper issue.]

    It was stupid then and it’s stupid now. Our elected governments are not the state.

  28. Anybody who supports the Abbott Government on this is just as much a cowardly suckhole as Abbott,Morriscumbag and the rest of their so-called “christian” mates, and can go to damn hell as far as I’m concerned.
    I wouldn’t even piss on these lowlives if they were on fire.

  29. [1473
    confessions

    briefly:

    The BoM rocks. My fear is the numpty coalition govt will do something stupid and either privatise it, or try to force it to abandon climate modelling and the like.]

    They will do their best to nullify it, confessions. They really are detestable.

  30. davidwh:
    [Think Big even the unconfirmed report from an anonymous Indonesian official didn’t allege any shots were fired at the alleged boat or people.]

    Oh well then I guess that makes it completely OK then…. O_o

    Maybe Morrison could clear up for us what actually happened? Oh wait.

  31. Sorry guys, but when you infer that a General of the ADF is telling lies to suit a government in power, you’re looking at anti-Australian behaviour at the very least in a subjective opinion, but objectively it’s treason, as you are working against Australia’s security.

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