Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

The Christmas-New Year poll drought ends courtesy of a new result from Morgan, which suggests little has changed over the break.

Morgan has released what it describes as the “first major public opinion poll of 2014”, though it could just as easily have dropped the “major”. It provides no indication of festive cheer softening attitudes towards the new government, showing the Coalition down 1.5% on the primary vote to 39% with Labor also down half a point to 38%, the Greens up half a point to 10.5% and the Palmer United Party steady on 3.5%. That translates to a 53-47 lead to Labor on 2013 preference flows and 52.5-47.5 on the headline respondent-allocated figure. As has been Morgan’s form for a while now, this poll combines its regular weekend face-to-face polling with SMS component, in this case encompassing 2527 respondents from the two weekends past. The first Essential Research result for the year should be with us tomorrow.

UPDATE: Little change also from Essential Research, which opens it account for the year with a result from the polling period of Friday to Monday only, rather than its two-week rolling average. This has the Coalition leading 51-49, with the Coalition, Labor and the Greens each up a point on the primary vote to 45%, 38% and 8% respectively, with the Palmer United Party steady on 4% and others down two to 6%. Also featured are the monthly personal ratings, showing a slight improvement for Tony Abbott – up two on approval to 47% and down three on disapproval to 43% – and a softening for Bill Shorten, down four to 35% and up one to 32%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Abbott’s lead shifting from 43-33 to 42-31. The poll also finds strong opposition to fees for GP visits, with 28% approving and 64% disapproving, and 47% support for Australia becoming a republic at the end of the Queen’s reign against 32% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,586 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

  1. [1354
    dave

    briefly – In form today]

    I’m experiencing Involuntary LNP Aversion Syndrome. It’s bad enough that climate change is in fact happening as predicted; but it’s made much much worse by LNP frauds pretending otherwise.

  2. “Acting Prime Minister Warren Truss says he expects the government will..”: I’m confused, I thought Tony Abbott was the Acting PM. Surely this makes Truss the “Acting Acting Prime Minister”.

  3. briefly @1355

    In 1908 there were 5 days at or above 40 degrees. (One of the days was exactly 40.0 degrees).

    2009 had 3 days above 43 degrees.

    These are the only comparable examples I know of.

  4. Deblonay

    [I]”Having said that…I must say I dislike Dastirari as a typical NSW Right operator…and he reminds me of his oid Mate .. Arbib..(Captain America)..the NSW senator(who disappeared so suddenly….why???????????) and also a former US Embassy informer(spy 😕 ?)

    what a crew

    “” and the colour of his suit is irrelevant”[/I]

    Actually suit explains all. Other than that, your instincts are 100% correct.

    CozsSadly the suit and appearance is evidence that super smart Sam is not the great gift to Labor for the 21st century that he thinks he is but a more a retread of the 80s.

    As for me – well I’ve posted about my Labor background here before, so am not going to do it again. Suffice to say Psephos, aka Adam Carr, is the solitary poster here who seems to understand what made Labor electable in 1972, what made it unelectable after 1974
    and then made it electable again under Bob Hawke 1983.
    And what has made it unelectable again after 2007 triumphalism.
    That’s another reason why I am perplexed about Psephos postings re boat turnbacks. Labor is likely to end up bitterly regretting day it did not take Bob Carr’s advice.

    As for Sam D – well he’s just another little spiv, same as Richo was back in late 1960s when I first laid eyes on him and Keating at a Young Labor Conference. But I don’t think Sam is near as bright and odious as Richo was and is, even to this day. Will last the distance about as long as Arbib did, imo.

  5. victoria@1358

    The Kouk
    Slimy weasel words from Crone and Shepherd at Audit Commission.
    Talk about low altitude fliers

    Kouk laying it on the line.

    Kouk hasn’t been writing for Business Spectator for a while either – murdoch owned there now – they may have boned him ?

  6. [1365
    dendrite

    briefly @1355

    In 1908 there were 5 days at or above 40 degrees. (One of the days was exactly 40.0 degrees).

    2009 had 3 days above 43 degrees.

    These are the only comparable examples I know of.]

    Thanks…I wonder what the probabilities are of this kind of event at such intervals.

  7. Meanwhile Adelaide is on track for its hottest day ever recorded tomorrow. Yesterday’s 45.1 was the 4th hottest. Today was a mild 43.7. Tomorrow is forecast to hit 46 – the hottest ever was in 1939 and was 46.1, so that’s under threat!

  8. Bit more on Crone – very interesting – Howard’s man GST and Work Choices –

    [ Crone is the Chief Economist and Director of Policy at the BCA. >He served on Howard’s personal staff as senior economic adviser for eight years.

    The GST was one of his babies.

    and

    a former public service official who oversaw the contentious WorkChoices policy, ]

    http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:7qxz_NVlL5IJ:vanguard.net.au/2008/pdf%2520files/dec13/Page%25205.pdf+&cd=6&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=au

  9. I can’t stand this heat but I am lucky to have air conditioning and able to choose whether I want to go out or not.

    I worry for some of those elderly residents living in small Housing Commission premises with only a fan to cool them particularly if they are in high rise.

    I wonder what the homeless do on these days.

    We can deservedly whinge but we should also spare a thought for those who are not so comfortable.

  10. BK@1360

    bemused
    It looks like I have misled you. Crone is a former Howard advisor who works in the BCA!
    Explains a lot of his smart-arsed attitude.

    Yes, I have been ducking in every now and then and am across the discussion.

    Such people are amazing.

  11. Just watching Get Smart. Steve Jobs must have watched this episode. Max and the Chief had to swap code words to prove their identity. The words ? Chief “Apple” to which Max replied “Macintosh”.

  12. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@1377

    who are the Boston Consulting Group? They are giving pro-bono consultancy to the Audit Commission.

    A major US/ Intentional business consulting mob.

    Great – Faceless unelected US & Australian big end of town making and redoing the rules to suit themselves – again.

  13. [Boerwar maybe go reread my posts and you may find I have not been talking about AGW.]

    So what are we adapting to and how is it going to happen in context of not doing anything?

  14. [Turnbull said “the idea that you would invest in a technology which will last for thirty years is pretty naive”, and said it was better to invest in technology “that works now” and upgrade as time went on…]

    The idea that you’d prefer to be able to see clearly for 100 metres in front of you when you can see the next five metres in front of you perfectly well and look up 19 times for the rest is pretty naive.

    Make it all up as you go along. This is the LNP paradigm.

  15. briefly

    How is this heatwave evidence of climate change?

    Now before Seany & co get excited we know that winters have become more mild can be linked to CC and the polar vertex seems to confirm the models as did the extra strong U.K storms of last week.

  16. Furthermore on Boston, why would you seek economic advice from corporate advisers instead of seeking advice from one of the large auditors who specalise on economic modelling.

  17. dave@1390

    More importantly what do they expect in return for doing the work pro bono?

    Beware of Yanks bearing gifts.

    The difference between free stuff and paid stuff can often be free stuff ends up costing a lot more – one way or another.

  18. Milenko Mijuskovic

    A contributor from you link. Be afraid….very afraid about what the mincing poodle has in mind for education. Charter schools are us are part of their scene. Rupert is also heavily involved in this education “revolution”.

    [BCG heavily promotes online learning in K-12 and college. In “Unleashing the Potential of Technology in Education,” the consulting firm calls for an “aligned set of educational objectives, standards, curricula, assessments, interventions, and professional development,” all centered around online technology. Deeming charter schools the leaders of internet schooling, the “study’s” authors quote online profiteer and Democrat for Education Reform’s Tom Vander Ark, praises Rocketship for hiring low wage non-teachers, and thanks their senior advisor, Margaret Spelling, Bush’s U.S. Secretary of Education. The” report” also praises the conflict-of-interest-laden School of One in NYC and KIPP’s BetterLesson program..]

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