The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly aggregated federal polling featuring breakdowns by state, gender, age and city/non-city, for which GhostWhoVotes offers full tables. This amounts to a relatively small dataset from four post-election polls, with total samples ranging from a modest 554 in South Australia to 1352 in New South Wales. The first of the four polls was something of an outlier in having the Coalition leading 56-44 – comfortably their best result in any poll since the election – but the next three tracked the broader trend in having the Coalition two-party preferred vote progress from 53% to 52% to 48%. Labor looks to have made the biggest gains among its weakest cohorts, namely male and older voters.
The state numbers have been added to the BludgerTrack model, and the display on the sidebar revised accordingly. This has tended to moderate the distinctions between the state swings, with the exception of Western Australia where Newspoll records a thumping 8% two-party shift to Labor – a result complemented by today’s Newspoll state result, which you can read about in the post directly below. The Newspoll figures for New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia were very close to BludgerTrack’s, but Victoria and Queensland were substantially better for the Coalition. Their addition causes the Coalition’s seat projection to improve by one each in the latter two states, which pans out to a net gain of one after accounting for a Labor gain in New South Wales.
dave
yep.
ruawake@98
A legacy of howard.
Prior to him both sides of politics broadly agreed that only the genuine needy would receive welfare, with the exemption of child endowment which was pretty modest.
Universal access to medical cover was/ is outside general welfare as is access to a good education irrespective of economic background.
howard did it because the money was there and his media went along with it with few exceptions such as Gittens and a few others.
@Leroy_Lynch: The bureau issues a cyclone warning for coastal areas of WA, from Kuri Bay to Broome and south to De Grey. http://t.co/6UhNI3VfWh
@Dave/92
So what about “Welfare” reforms then Mr Libs?
Z – not sure what point you are making ?
More Info.
[We are currently in a wage bubble and with increasing unemployment it just proves that it is unsustainable.]
And your basis for making this statement is??
Or are you just letting your inner moron out to play…..again??
Cyclone Christine is forecast to smash directly into Pannawonica.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=709118952455863&set=a.244327805601649.66916.238884916145938&type=1&theater
Sigh. Wish I was in a wage bubble.
C
I wish the Pannawonicans all the best.
“@abcgrandstand: BREAKING: Wild Oats has crossed the #SydneytoHobart finish-line to win a record-equalling 7th consecutive line honours. #RSHYR”
Labor does not ‘hate’ people on high incomes. If someone has done well through working hard, working smart or plain good luck, that’s great. May they and their families enjoy the fruits of their efforts. Having done so well, they don’t need subsidies or handouts. And, like those on more modest incomes in the PAYE system, they are required to make a fair contribution to creating and maintaining the stable, peaceful space (Australia) where they have done so well.
Don’t imagine we’ll be hearing any politician, certainly not on the conservative side, saying anything like “Ask not what your country can do for you…” in this current Age of Entitlement for the elite (the real elite, those who control the wealth).
[Sigh. Wish I was in a wage bubble.]
So do I, but if i was i’m sure some prick like ST would come along and pop it.
Funny how supposed “business” people consider that “market” forces are good except when applied to the labour market?
OK, i will concede they generally consider that “market” forces are a good thing in calculating a senior execs remuneration. 🙂
My New Year wish: that people on blogs and Twitter who post articles more than 24 hrs old (i.e. not currently “new”) would provide a date.
Lizzie
Its not so much reacting but more the enjoyment of being part of an argument, sometimes i say things to see if its a sound idea or if its an unworkable one.
Do the people who do commentary on live sport have a clue what they’re talking about?
Mostly not, I think.
The first boat crosses the line and they’re going on about the whole crew hitting the Hobart pubs and bars tonight.
At least half the crew if not more on the leading boats are paid professional yacht racers.
They’ll be more interested in seeing if they can get a flight out of Hobart tonight on their way home.
@Dave/105
Search Kevin Andrews, and you will get most of the reports on what they are doing.
Ctar
Yes. I do note the sailing journalist said those not flying out will party on.
Easy to miss the note of reality amongst the amatuars talking up the drinking culture.
A page or so back AussieAchmed explained why he was a labor man. That resonated with me. I first voted in the 1972 Federal election and I can say that since then I have never seen a coalition government, federal or state, who didn’t have reducing workers wages and conditions on its agenda.
A few of them tried to hide it, but as people like to say these days, it’s in their DNA.
I was in a workplace where we were negiti
mexican
Understand. 🙂
[ Search Kevin Andrews, and you will get most of the reports on what they are doing. ]
?
You are the one trying to make a point – whatever that is.
Search Google yourself if you need help.
…. Bloody ipad, we were negotiation new agreement under the shadow of workchoices and the effect on a unionised used but not militant workforce was to turn them from being largely happy productive people to a surly bunch given to standing around talking. The management saw what was happening and came up with a deal fairly quickly.
You can only push people so far before it starts to hurt your business.
@dave/120
Yeah, and?
I was asking if other things are on hold, or just the libs being selective.
[Do the people who do commentary on live sport have a clue what they’re talking about?]
Are you seriously asking this having listened to the commentary associated with three cricket Test matches?
[ I was asking if other things are on hold, or just the libs being selective. ]
So why do you ask me ?
@Dave/124
Well, it was you’re post.
The channel nine cricket commendatory team are good at claiming something like bowler A always bowls at 150+ and bowler B bowls at 140+ yet if you watch they only occasionally bowl at that speed.
The other clanger they make is too claim that 95k will turn up to the first day of the boxing test yet the record is just over 90k
The next worst sports coverage is the Tennis, at this time every year we will get stories that Tomic is a world beater and a threat to the top guys who will be asked in some interview in which they will smile and say something like yes he is good and the journo will use that too justify any hype.
Our media do try very hard, not sure who is worst, the sport or Canberra press gallery.
zoidlord@125
Try going back to the start, I still don’t see the point of any of your posts –
dave@102
At least half the crew if not more on the leading boats are paid professional yacht racers.
They’ll be more interested in seeing if they can get a flight out of Hobart tonight on their way home.
================================
From experience they’ll be sailing the boat back to Sydney tomorrow, depending on the weather, not flying back
@dave/127
Yeah, I see stuff that would include Welfare, thus the questions about, the specifics, which wasn’t provided at you’re post @ 92.
AA
Times have changed. I was at a mate’s wedding in the early 80s and there was a guy there who had just sailed on an Alan bond boat to Hobart and would later go on to be crew on Australia 11. He delighted in telling us what a great time he had in Hobart for New year. his very pregnant wife sitting next to him was not amused.
mexicanb:
I spent a lot of today in the car driving family around, so could listen to the ABC commentary. I had always thought the Ch9 commentary was worse than the ABC’s, but today the ABC’s was so bad that I would’ve downloaded the Ch9 cricket app so I could watch on my phone if I weren’t driving in patchy coverage.
‘fess
[Are you seriously asking this]
I should have marked that bit ‘/rhetorical’.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/28/business/international/china-in-push-to-rein-in-lending-practices.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0
This to me is scary
zoidlord@129
Because it was a broad answer. Howard broadened “welfare” specifically middle class welfare – not labor.
Before howard, the needy got help, not the rich.
Labor tried to wind back middle class welfare but abbott fought tooth and nail on it. Remember his cries of ‘class warfare’ every time Labor tried ?
mari
[The even bigger problem, however, appears to come from the rise of a shadow banking system that has allowed a number of companies and individuals, often with political connections, to borrow from state-controlled banks at low interest rates and relend the money at much higher rates to private businesses desperate for credit at almost any price. ]
Particularly this pyramid scheme.
@dave/134
Yes, who could forget.
dave
[Remember his cries of ‘class warfare’ every time Labor tried ?]
And now we see with superannuation the start of the opposite.
[83
Darn
Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 6:21 pm | PERMALINK
Has William forbidden any commentary on the cricket or is there just nobody here who’s interested in it?]
He was probably hoping someone would talk about the polls at the top of the page.
[He was probably hoping someone would talk about the polls at the top of the page.]
Talking about quarterly polls, do they actually mean anything? They have a starting point and an ending point and report the average.
Admittedly it is the only way to get a large sample of State voting intention, but why not just release this stuff with regular polling (despite the small sample) like Nielsen.
‘Class warfare’ means suggesting that those who are well off (say, earning more than about 50% over the median wage/salary) don’t need handouts from the government. And it’s really fighting words if you suggest that tax breaks not available to people in the PAYE system (other than for legitimate costs incurred in earning income) be wound back or withdrawn.
CTar1@137
and PPL. Thats the one that has his balls in an electoral vice.
Very generous assistance to wealth families. Screw workers, their jobs, their working conditions, their super, their medicare etc etc.
But he is not PM for life. Newspoll will work its magic against him just as it did against Labor.
[He was probably hoping someone would talk about the polls at the top of the page.]
I didn’t see William make a comment on cricket discussion?
If I’m the first to comment on a post I try to make a comment on what’s been written first up, as I did on this one.
[ Steve777
Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 7:58 pm | Permalink
‘Class warfare’ means…. ]
I always took it as howard saying…”Its a sin for you to envy the fruits of my greed”.
But the electorate sucked it all up.
rua
On the average every Australian has about one testicle and one ovary.
Useful information?
Yes the class warfare line which Pyne was unable to use during the recent Gonski debate.
Labor tried to wind back middle class welfare but abbott fought tooth and nail on it. Remember his cries of ‘class warfare’ every time Labor tried ?
==========================================
When the wealthy are asked to pay or to even lose a benefit, it’s called class warfare.
When the low paid, pensioners and poor are told they will lose benefits, have lower wages or have welfare cut imposed its described as an economic benefit to Nation.
In the USA they issue food stamps. This year there was a cut to the food stamp program. The private company that manages the scheme for government made a $250 billion profit. They made a greater profit than the amount that was cut
dave
[and PPL]
This one is such a ‘dog’ when compared with NDIS I think even Abbot will have to ‘rethink’ it (or tell the Commission of Audit to sink it for him).
Steve777 @ 140: And if you really want to start WWIII, bring up the issue of the discretionary trusts so loved by the farmers as a tax avoidance measure.
Nobody does the entitlement mentality like the farmers. I’m so sick of their perpetual bellyaching that I make a point of buying imported produced whenever I can.
pedant@148
Good points. As is negative gearing.
I think it a french expression – “Taxation is the art of plucking the goose with a minimum of hissing and snapping.”
I laugh every time I hear GST praised as so called “efficient tax” – its efficient because those fleeced have bugger all means of fighting back.
Most taxes can be made efficient if there is a will. eg no deductions or a alternative minimum tax, but its really about motivation not to upset the wealthy.
Which is one of the reasons our US friends appear – at least from here to have lost their way.
Too big to fail. Too big to jail etc.
Everyone else – bend over.
[I’m so sick of their perpetual bellyaching that I make a point of buying imported produced whenever I can.]
SPC a case study of handout mentality. They have been going around telling farmers to rip up their orchards, don’t bother we will not buy from you.
Then this subsidiary of Coca Cola-Amatil puts out its hand for $25 million of Gov funds, must think they are Cadbury.