Newspoll quarterly aggregates

The Australian has published aggregated breakdowns from the four Newspoll results since the election, suggesting Western Australia to be the outstanding performer in Labor’s recent polling renaissance.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly aggregated federal polling featuring breakdowns by state, gender, age and city/non-city, for which GhostWhoVotes offers full tables. This amounts to a relatively small dataset from four post-election polls, with total samples ranging from a modest 554 in South Australia to 1352 in New South Wales. The first of the four polls was something of an outlier in having the Coalition leading 56-44 – comfortably their best result in any poll since the election – but the next three tracked the broader trend in having the Coalition two-party preferred vote progress from 53% to 52% to 48%. Labor looks to have made the biggest gains among its weakest cohorts, namely male and older voters.

The state numbers have been added to the BludgerTrack model, and the display on the sidebar revised accordingly. This has tended to moderate the distinctions between the state swings, with the exception of Western Australia where Newspoll records a thumping 8% two-party shift to Labor – a result complemented by today’s Newspoll state result, which you can read about in the post directly below. The Newspoll figures for New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia were very close to BludgerTrack’s, but Victoria and Queensland were substantially better for the Coalition. Their addition causes the Coalition’s seat projection to improve by one each in the latter two states, which pans out to a net gain of one after accounting for a Labor gain in New South Wales.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,325 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates”

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  1. Centre@1297

    I think they’re advertising for more staff at the detention centre in Xmas Island to manage the increased number of arrivals over the last 3 months.

    If they are stopping the boats, why are they needing more staff ?

  2. [If they are stopping the boats, why are they needing more staff?]

    The boats keep coming.

    Of course Morrison likes to live in fantasy like many of the Liberals do. We have one here at PB, don’t we Tisme?

  3. Evening all. Amusing to read the Liberal spin for the boat numbers. Operation Claim Credit for Rudd’s Policy continues on. I can hear Morrison’s cry now:
    “Slightly reduce the boats!”

    Looking at the boat numbers, and the extraordinary spike from April to August this year, out of kilter with world refugee numbers, it is clear that external forces were acting to abuse the Australian refugee system. Something had to be done. I note that the PNG solution continues with construction on Manus Island.

  4. [The boats keep coming.]

    But the boats have slowed significantly since the then Labor govt announced that nobody who arrived by boat would get a visa.

    Of course the boats will never stop completely, but if Abbott’s slogan had been Slow The Boats, he might have been in a better position to claim credit for the current numbers.

  5. Noting the pattern in the refugee numbers, boat arrivals peak in the winter months around July each year. It will be interesting to see what Morrison says in July 2014or indeed if any numbers will be released them?

  6. Centre is making shit up is why.

    He claimed 36 Boats arrived in December which is clearly a delusional… unhingement.. from reality.

    It happens when the left have lost a debate… invent a conspiracy theory. It’s a common trait I have noticed.

  7. I sat through two category 1 cyclones in my time in the Pilbara. Just stay inside, and maybe keep away from the windows, and everything will be fine. The houses there are built to take it.

    The one thing I would not do is go outside. I have seen what a category 1 cyclone can do with a piece of corrugated sheeting.

  8. Surely a tiny little island at the centre of Op Sov Bor operations can’t be that hard to defend but no, people seem to be able to turn up on the beach and wander around for days. Quite comical really.

  9. SEan
    if boats are stopping why are detention centres expanding at millions of dollar cost?

    why is the private contractor hiring more staff?

  10. [1275
    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 11:02 pm | PERMALINK
    Who can forget Bob Hawke promising no child would live in poverty?

    What was actually in the written version of his speech was “By 1990 no Australian child will need to live in poverty.” That was a worked-out, costed and feasible policy, and it was in fact largely carried out by Brian Howe as Social Security Minister. Hawke on the podium had a rush of blood to the head and left out the words “need to”, thus rendering the promise absurd.

    It is probably true, however, that if every parent in Australia accessed the full range of benefits to which they were entitled, and spent that money on the support of their children, rather than on drink, gambling or other forms of self-indulgence, then no Australian child would be in poverty. There is a limit to what government can do in this respect.]

    That’s one of the most interesting things I’ve ever read on here.

  11. this five dollar fiasco is typical right wing tory attack on the poor when the main culprits are at the other end – elective and non elective private surgery – where nobody wins except vastly overpaid specialists. the gap needs regulation – as do specialist fees generally.

  12. seany is a mob – no one soul could be here continually however zealous … william and sean t should keep company. as far those who love to argue with the virus

  13. AA,

    There is a backlog of 33,000 Labor illegals yet to be processed.

    Rub those 2 brain cells together and you’ll be able to answer your own question.

    When Labor first came to power there was… read em… 4 people in detention. 4.

    Now we have a backlog of 33,000 Labor illegals and the Coalition has to deal with the mess.

  14. @Sean/1322

    What about the 1100 or so that arrived in the 3 months? if that becomes the norm, how many will be by the end Abbott’s first term?

    Labor is no longer in Power, if Abbott can’t deal with the situation, he should quit politics.

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