Newspoll quarterly aggregates

The Australian has published aggregated breakdowns from the four Newspoll results since the election, suggesting Western Australia to be the outstanding performer in Labor’s recent polling renaissance.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly aggregated federal polling featuring breakdowns by state, gender, age and city/non-city, for which GhostWhoVotes offers full tables. This amounts to a relatively small dataset from four post-election polls, with total samples ranging from a modest 554 in South Australia to 1352 in New South Wales. The first of the four polls was something of an outlier in having the Coalition leading 56-44 – comfortably their best result in any poll since the election – but the next three tracked the broader trend in having the Coalition two-party preferred vote progress from 53% to 52% to 48%. Labor looks to have made the biggest gains among its weakest cohorts, namely male and older voters.

The state numbers have been added to the BludgerTrack model, and the display on the sidebar revised accordingly. This has tended to moderate the distinctions between the state swings, with the exception of Western Australia where Newspoll records a thumping 8% two-party shift to Labor – a result complemented by today’s Newspoll state result, which you can read about in the post directly below. The Newspoll figures for New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia were very close to BludgerTrack’s, but Victoria and Queensland were substantially better for the Coalition. Their addition causes the Coalition’s seat projection to improve by one each in the latter two states, which pans out to a net gain of one after accounting for a Labor gain in New South Wales.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,325 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates”

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  1. [How the fuck can somebody so stupid actually manage to breathe, let alone construct posts?!]

    I don’t know who posted the comments you’ve quoted but assume it is Sean. In which case, ST is here to entertain, just look at it that way. 🙂

  5. confessions

    Vote 1 Whim Creek. The pub with the drunkard camel and then kangaroo. But still with a unique game.

    Anyways, I think back in your cyclone days they showed amazing spirit. They had installed a couple of containers as shelters. Pretty bomb proof. The +1 was that in the shipping container they had set up a bar to carry on 😆
    Made for great tv.

  7. Yesiree Bob@1247

    Bemused, all the ALP need do, is to set realistic expectations.

    Like Swann and Gillard did repeatedly promising a surplus?

    I agree with you, but I just hope our political leadership doesn’t get carried away as has happened on numerous occasions in the past.

    I am a big fan of “under-promise, over-deliver”.

  8. Many brokers are making the following forecasts to their clients for 2014:

    – The AUD to fall a further 10%.

    – The economy to slow to less than 2% annualised growth.

    – The RBA forced to cut rates further due to slowing GDP.

    My tips for 2014:

    – Companies that will benefit from the falling exchange rate to do well.

    – Gold to recover and outperform other currencies (yes it’s also a commodity 😛 )

    – Consolidation in the gaming sector.

    – ASX200 to make substantial gains if Abbott gets the sack.

    Tips for Rugby League:

    – The Bunnies, it’s do or die, they MUST make the GF.

    – NSW to stop letting QLD win in Origin.

    – A winning year for Centre and the 2013 GF nightmares to cease…I hope!

    😀

  12. Yesiree Bob@1259

    bemused@1257
    I agree with you, but I just hope our political leadership doesn’t get carried away as has happened on numerous occasions in the past.

    I am a big fan of “under-promise, over-deliver”.

    I dunno, I just get a sneaking suspicion that the ALP may have headed many past lessons.
    The very real possibility that Tony could be a one term wonder can provide a great motivator for the ALP to get their act together.

    It is not a recent phenomenon.

    Who can forget Bob Hawke promising no child would live in poverty?

    We need some hard heads in the shadow ministry who will be a restraining influence when colleagues get over-excited. I think Shorten may be so inclined. I hope so.

  14. Tips in politics for 2014:

    – Abbott fails to stop the boats.

    – Abbott fails to deliver a surplus.

    – Greens to poll 70%

    – Milne pressured to stay on as Loon Leader.

    😀

    –

  17. Carey Moore@1266

    I agree with not overpromising. But, at the same time, it should not mean big visions should be discouraged. Leaders need to have an eye on the long-term, as well as the short-term.

    No point in a big vision if you are not serious about delivering.
    NBN was a big vision and the ALP Govt got on with delivering.

  19. [Tragic typo at 1264]

    Yeah, that must’ve hurt. 😀

    Seriously though, there’s an argument to be made that the Greens do better when Labor is in govt, yet poll worse when the coalition are.

    Time will tell, but already we’ve seen that the Green vote has declined with each election they’ve contested since the 2010 federal election.

  20. Centre@1268

    YB

    Well good luck to the Tiges in the womens, they’ll be battling for the wooden spoon in the mens

    Frances Bourke, Kevin Sheedy, Scotty “hit man” Turner, and Chris Newman are no women 😀

  21. Political Tips fpr 2014
    _________________
    Centre tips Green’s demise… again !
    Greens poll 12% in WA Senate bye election and retain Ludlam’s senate seat
    Big Swing ousts Napthine in Victoria. Labor in power with strong majority….Greens gain more seats and the balance of power in Vic Legislative Council
    Abbott continues to slide in polls with growing internal tension in Govt
    Close reults between Labor and Greens in Melbourne and Richmond seats
    Labor loses in Tasmania but holds on in SA …in state polls

  23. [Leaders need to have an eye on the long-term, as well as the short-term.]

    I wonder whether that sentiment was driving the Liberal party to talk up the Terry Barnes health reform submission in the Sunday papers, in an effort to boost Abbott as some kind of visionary leader. Remember that Abbott himself was quoted in the papers.

    It backfired, at least in terms of how the tabloid headlines received the news. The Sunday Times here was scathing and public.

  24. The problem I have with the levy is that it is and always was a nominal figure unrelated to the cost of healthcare.
    Do the maths the cost of healthcare is 9 % of GDP and the levy is 1.5% of taxable personal income. The levy covers less than 10% of government health costs.
    Medicare in its current form is a classic example of middle class welfare and effectively reduces the health funding available to the disadvantaged. In its current form it is well past its use by date

  25. [Who can forget Bob Hawke promising no child would live in poverty?]

    What was actually in the written version of his speech was “By 1990 no Australian child will need to live in poverty.” That was a worked-out, costed and feasible policy, and it was in fact largely carried out by Brian Howe as Social Security Minister. Hawke on the podium had a rush of blood to the head and left out the words “need to”, thus rendering the promise absurd.

    It is probably true, however, that if every parent in Australia accessed the full range of benefits to which they were entitled, and spent that money on the support of their children, rather than on drink, gambling or other forms of self-indulgence, then no Australian child would be in poverty. There is a limit to what government can do in this respect.

  26. Speaking of Green polling, I suspect Parnell will hold on to his seat in the SA Legislative Council (if he’s running again – which I assume he is. If not, it’ll be whoever the new #1 candidate is.)

  27. Psephos@1275


    It is probably true, however, that if every parent in Australia accessed the full range of benefits to which they were entitled, and spent that money on the support of their children, rather than on drink, gambling or other forms of self-indulgence, then no Australian child would be in poverty. There is a limit to what government can do in this respect.

    And Hawke’s statement was so obviously stupid that I could not believe my ears when I heard it. I was shocked.

    I agree with your paragraph quoted, particularly the last sentence which just serves to underline the stupidity of Hawke’s utterance.

  29. YB

    I actually like watching the AFL. The Swans beating Hawthorn in the 2012 GF was unbelievable with excitement.

    But don’t you think they could play it to music instead of using a ball 😀

  30. 1271

    While the Coalition is not popular in Victoria, it is not massively unpopular either. I think that the election will be close and the Coalition will loose seat(s). The Coalition is determined to get the East-West link contract signed before the election and the ALP have said they will not cancel the contract (even though they oppose the project) and so the Greens will have a big stick to beat the ALP with in the inner-city (especially Melbourne and Richmond). I think that the Greens getting the balance of power in the Legislative Assembly is a likely outcome of this election. The Greens would then demand the East-West Link be cancelled.

  31. [It is probably true, however, that if every parent in Australia accessed the full range of benefits to which they were entitled, and spent that money on the support of their children, rather than on drink, gambling or other forms of self-indulgence, then no Australian child would be in poverty.]

    Do you have any evidence for this assumption? My experience is that low income households fully access the range of benefits they are entitled to, yet still don’t make ends meet, principally because they are paying too much for housing and basic utilities.

  33. [Christine is finally beginning to make landfall thankfully over a remote area of the Pilbara Coastline.

    Currently beginning to cross the coast in the Balla Balla area which is north of Whim Creek (Quite a good fishing spot as well)

    Those people around the Landfall area such as PORT HEDLAND, ROEBOURNE, WICKHAM, POINT SAMSON and KARRATHA can expect strong winds to continue into this evening as Christine begins to move inland towards Tom Price and Paraburdoo.]
    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=628957153812167&set=a.561730183868198.1073741923.269003509807535&type=1&theater

  34. Lowest amount of illegal boat arrivals in 5 Years for the month of November under Op Sov Borders

    Now it can be revealed that the lowest amount of illegal boat arrivals for the month of December for 5 Years has now occured… you guessed it… under the Coalitions Operation Sovereign Borders.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-27/asylum-seeker-boat-arrivals-for-december-lowest-in-five-years/5176602

    This is a results based government folks, and with a 87% reduction in illegals in 100 Days, Morrison is the stand out performer.

  35. Just heard the cyclone evacuation centre in Hedland has lost its roof…no news on injuries yet

    Cyclone Christine is doing her worst

  37. @Sean/1284

    That is misleading headtitle.

    Since Operation Sovereign Borders began three months ago 1,106 asylum seekers on board 22 boats have been intercepted by authorities.

    Just as bad as Labor lol.

  39. deblonay

    A friend of mine went to the US on holidays four or so months ago and she could not believe the amount of homeless and poor people that she saw in the parks and streets.

    Apparently the parks in New York are full of homeless people and many workers in the food industry such as restaurants rely on tips to make a wage.

    But she did say that the food was real cheap over there however.

  41. Sean Tisme@1284

    Lowest amount of illegal boat arrivals in 5 Years for the month of November under Op Sov Borders

    Now it can be revealed that the lowest amount of illegal boat arrivals for the month of December for 5 Years has now occured… you guessed it… under the Coalitions Operation Sovereign Borders.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-27/asylum-seeker-boat-arrivals-for-december-lowest-in-five-years/5176602

    .

    and all due to measures implemented by the Rudd Government.
    Thanks for reminding us Seaney

  44. [That is misleading headtitle.

    Since Operation Sovereign Borders began three months ago 1,106 asylum seekers on board 22 boats have been intercepted by authorities.]

    That’s the same amount of illegals as what occured in the first 7 days of Rudd 2.0

    [Just as bad as Labor lol.]

    In July under Rudd 2.0 there were over 4000 illegals.

    In the previous 12 month period before the election there were over 22,500 illegals who arrived under Labor. This is the benchmark, this is their legacy, this is their shame.

  47. I think they’re advertising for more staff at the detention centre in Xmas Island to manage the increased number of arrivals over the last 3 months.

  49. [For Sean…..note the downward trend under Labor]

    Notice the upward trend from November 24th 2007….

    A complete mess totally of Labors making.

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