Newspoll quarterly aggregates

The Australian has published aggregated breakdowns from the four Newspoll results since the election, suggesting Western Australia to be the outstanding performer in Labor’s recent polling renaissance.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly aggregated federal polling featuring breakdowns by state, gender, age and city/non-city, for which GhostWhoVotes offers full tables. This amounts to a relatively small dataset from four post-election polls, with total samples ranging from a modest 554 in South Australia to 1352 in New South Wales. The first of the four polls was something of an outlier in having the Coalition leading 56-44 – comfortably their best result in any poll since the election – but the next three tracked the broader trend in having the Coalition two-party preferred vote progress from 53% to 52% to 48%. Labor looks to have made the biggest gains among its weakest cohorts, namely male and older voters.

The state numbers have been added to the BludgerTrack model, and the display on the sidebar revised accordingly. This has tended to moderate the distinctions between the state swings, with the exception of Western Australia where Newspoll records a thumping 8% two-party shift to Labor – a result complemented by today’s Newspoll state result, which you can read about in the post directly below. The Newspoll figures for New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia were very close to BludgerTrack’s, but Victoria and Queensland were substantially better for the Coalition. Their addition causes the Coalition’s seat projection to improve by one each in the latter two states, which pans out to a net gain of one after accounting for a Labor gain in New South Wales.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,325 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates”

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  2. [I’m just surprised how people think that oil companies can’t read price boards like every one else.]

    I’m surprised that local operators don’t see opportunities for increased traffic, esp in capital city markets where the loyalty factor isn’t high.

  6. GG:

    I didn’t think operators over east were able to simply chop and change their prices throughout the day. Here they are locked in for the day the night before.

  7. ru,

    There was a garbage strike in an Italian city just recently and people started dropping their garbage off at the local Bank Branches as some sort of protest againstst their ending practices.

    Perhaps parets can drop their children at the local Liberal MP’s office as the only creche they can afford.

  8. rossmcg

    [I used to ride the bike to work but now that is struggling to get a workout too.]

    Got one too. The reflexes slow so best only to ride when you’re on the ball.

  9. fess,

    Not sure how it works these cays. But, the price increase was probably flagged yesterday if that is the case.

  12. [Those temperature records just keep breaking.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-30/heatwave-declared-in-parts-of-queensland/5179018%5D

    I was chatting with someone who regards Climate Science as a quaint lefty excuse for collecting taxes from the gullible.

    HE threw in the Sydney desalination plant as more Labor wasted money.

    I asked him what he would think if we had a drought worse than the one during which the plant was built?

    He looked at me straight-faced and said there will NEVER a drought as bad as the 1998-2008 drought, ever again.

    What can you say to people who actually believe this?

  14. GG:

    If they have to lock their prices in the night before and keep them at that level for 12 hours (or whatever it is here), then as an operator I’d be tempted to go on the low side in an effort to drive traffic to my station and away from the competition.

  15. [In the East they can change price anytime they want.]

    Oh well, in that case forget my earlier incredulity at the North Shore petrol prices. Clearly my strategy would fail in those conditions.

  16. [What can you say to people who actually believe this?]

    Come to the SW of WA and tell that to farmers here?

    poroti:

    No it was earlier than that. It was my first job away from home after I’d graduated. Must’ve been 1999 or 2000. I can’t even remember the name of they cyclone.

  18. Confessions

    Back in late 78 I think it was I nearly took a job with a mining company in port Hedland. Was that close. But I pulled the pin . We would have moved there in December . I think they had something like four cyclones in two months. and that was in the days when preparation for a cyclone was buy two cartons and sit in the bathroom. OH and S hadn’t been invented.
    My thoughts are with those sitting it out with Christine.

  19. GG
    It is a reform well over 22 years overdue.
    The idea that millionaires are entitled to get subsidised comprehensive healthcare belongs in the 70s

  20. Shawn will be disappointed.

    A boat of no specific ‘type’ made directly for the Phosphate/petroleum loading/unloading berth just south of Flying Fish Cove at about lunch time and is now making its way north.

    HMAS Stuart, I think.

  21. confessions

    Ta. Mine was in the noughties. All set for a Tracy strength replay but it fell in to a heap. Very impressive and noisy though even if it was a mere Cat 1 when it hit. Worst bit was the sudden closing of the Mitchell St bars at about 6 pm on Friday.

  23. rossmcg:

    I have a friend in Karratha who has promised to post Facebook updates, service permitting. It’s his first or second cyclone and he’s looking forward to it. god only knows why.

  27. CTar1

    There was no 😆 about it. It was all 🙁 at The Wisdom Bar as we locals (in denial) realised that the bar staff were not joking and they had no take aways !!! Oh the humanity and all that 🙂

  31. poroti:

    My cyclone hit during the day, and was a Cat 2 from memory. We’d all gone to work in the morning and lasted a couple of hours before being sent home. As an ‘orphan’ I accompanied another orphan from down south, a 40+ yo nurse who was practically shitting herself.

    We were the perfect pair: I cook when stressed, and she ate when stressed. So I spent the day cooking and baking for her, and she just ate whatever was placed in front of her. We lost power at some point after the cyclone has passed, but by that stage we were pretty cool with it all.

    My parents totally freaked when they got news of the cyclone and tried to get me to come home, but it wasn’t as bad as I’d thought it would be.

  34. [He looked at me straight-faced and said there will NEVER a drought as bad as the 1998-2008 drought, ever again.

    What can you say to people who actually believe this?]

    That they should do some reading that ISN’T confirmation of bias?

    Being from W.A. i find it quietly humorous that we now have 2 delsal plants going, AND recycling of some waste water back into the groundwater supply. It doesn’t actually seem to be any kind of political issue any more, just got to be done. Some of that may have to do with the fact that while the rest of the country has had recent huge rainfall (over the last 3-4 years), SW W.A. just hasn’t.

    For us over here, this plot tells the story,

    http://www.watercorporation.com.au/water-supply-and-services/rainfall-and-dams/streamflow/streamflowhistorical

    And its not a good one. 🙁

  36. [I was chatting with someone who regards Climate Science as a quaint lefty excuse for collecting taxes from the gullible.]

    How many degrees cooler did Gillard’s Carbon Tax make the Earth again?

    The left will and do ignore the science when it suits them.

  37. @Sean/1236

    This is coming from someone who doesn’t employ a person and try’s to make attack the wages?

    Does the argument suit you then?

  38. imacca

    [Being from W.A. i find it quietly humorous that we now have 2 delsal plants going, AND recycling of some waste water back into the groundwater supply.]
    I apologise for not remembering the name but a PB ninja on the subject quite a while back pointed out that the input of dams in W.A. planning was a big fat Zero.

    What will happen to Aus during the next El Nino ?

  39. [Cyclone parties have long been legendary in “Karachi”]

    Another Facebook friend is also in Karratha visiting her partner’s family. Rotten luck, but she’s posting videos and photos of the current situation. She seems excited about the whole thing.

    Have I taught my friends nothing about the destruction of wind and sea surges? Clearly not. Only me the weather nut could have friends who look forward to frickin cyclones!

  41. Oakeshott Country

    Posted Monday, December 30, 2013 at 9:27 pm | Permalink

    GG
    It is a reform well over 22 years overdue.
    The idea that millionaires are entitled to get subsidised comprehensive healthcare
    ====================================================================

    the idea that millionaies ect],, well in that case lets put the levy up for the top 20 percent and leave the poor alone,
    are referring I suppose to self funded retirees who rock up to the bulk bill clinic so what they paid their taxes,, if dr don’t bulk bill at the moment its $75 dollars at one local gp I know of and u get half back, I would think most millionaires would attend these gp, most would not want to sit in the middle of the poor and unwashed down to earth nice people that I sit next to at our local gp clinic where all are bulk billed, the sad cases I see there, up set me. People through no faut of their own are POOR and 6 dollar is loaf of bread and carton milk, may be also you have not thought through the children of the poor they have to have good health care lets start talking about the children of the poor will we, re education cuts as well

    =========================\
    , a trip t twitter land would be good, we have Father bob this evening discussing the homeless and poor who 6dollars would buy a small meal somewhere, so they are sick have the flu now have chest infection, do the eat or go to the dr only 6 dollars so do they eat or DIE.

    reminds me of liberal gp , I stopped going to as every time I went there all he wanted to tell me was how poor he was ect and was not getting a good share of medicare I reminded him that was my taxes I think he thought every one voted liberal that shut him up.

    ,

    wake up aust, we are rich country or we where till this mob started offending china ect,and borrowing money and not going ahead with the mine tax ect and selling us out re global warming

    WE ALL DESERVE MEDICAL HELP free as in paid by the levy.

    and to be treated as equals,, other wise why did ww 2 happen frankly I feel like we have been invaded by aliens who are occupying the country because they don’t give a stuff about us.

    so by wanting 6 dollars to be paid by the wealthy punish the poor and very much doubt the liberal wealthy would attend a clinc like the one I do.

  43. Yesiree Bob@1230

    bemused@1226

    Yesiree Bob@1224

    Under Tonies watch, petrol will hit $2.00 per litre
    One term Tony looms large.

    The problem is, it will continue to rise for the foreseeable future. It won’t stop at $2.00.


    Yep, and Tony will have to wear it.

    Not after he loses the 2016 election.
    The ALP would be foolish to create unrealistic expectations.

    I don’t see the price of petrol stabilising until there are viable alternate fuels and there is a sort of equilibrium reached.

  44. seems pb has turned in to self talk festival
    have not noticed any deep thoughts in to the effect 6dollars has on the unemployed and disenfranchised and the sick

    I mostly come to read what RU has to say as it always informative revealing and thoughtful,

  45. [How many degrees cooler did Gillard’s Carbon Tax make the Earth again?

    The left will and do ignore the science when it suits them.]

    How the fuck can somebody so stupid actually manage to breathe, let alone construct posts?!

  46. [What will happen to Aus during the next El Nino ?]

    Well, hopefully we get a little more rain over here. 🙂

    And those who have been complaining about desal in the Eastern States will stay verrrrrrry quiet, apart from to bitch and complain about how they are suffering under water restrictions. Given the urban nature of Australia’s society, desal is something that is inevitably part of the landscape now. Problem is how to power it in states less windy than W.A.

    I’m hoping this takes off more widely.

    http://www.carnegiewave.com/

  48. my say

    [have not noticed any deep thoughts in to the effect 6dollars has on the unemployed and disenfranchised and the sick ]
    Unfair. There has been much comment on that and it possibly meaning the death of Medicare. Remember the tories are now in charge and no amount of hyperventilating will change that reality.

  49. [How the fuck can somebody so stupid actually manage to breathe, let alone construct posts?!]

    Hey CM, a chook can run around with its head cut off cant it??

    And i believe that male praying mantis keep humping after the female has decapitated them during sex?

    Breathing is a deeply embedded autonomic process i think.

    Now, walking and whistling at the same time? That could lead to serious injury for our ST.

  50. [How many degrees cooler did Gillard’s Carbon Tax make the Earth again?]
    How many IQ points has such a comment lowered the PB collective IQ ?

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