Newspoll quarterly aggregates

The Australian has published aggregated breakdowns from the four Newspoll results since the election, suggesting Western Australia to be the outstanding performer in Labor’s recent polling renaissance.

The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly aggregated federal polling featuring breakdowns by state, gender, age and city/non-city, for which GhostWhoVotes offers full tables. This amounts to a relatively small dataset from four post-election polls, with total samples ranging from a modest 554 in South Australia to 1352 in New South Wales. The first of the four polls was something of an outlier in having the Coalition leading 56-44 – comfortably their best result in any poll since the election – but the next three tracked the broader trend in having the Coalition two-party preferred vote progress from 53% to 52% to 48%. Labor looks to have made the biggest gains among its weakest cohorts, namely male and older voters.

The state numbers have been added to the BludgerTrack model, and the display on the sidebar revised accordingly. This has tended to moderate the distinctions between the state swings, with the exception of Western Australia where Newspoll records a thumping 8% two-party shift to Labor – a result complemented by today’s Newspoll state result, which you can read about in the post directly below. The Newspoll figures for New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia were very close to BludgerTrack’s, but Victoria and Queensland were substantially better for the Coalition. Their addition causes the Coalition’s seat projection to improve by one each in the latter two states, which pans out to a net gain of one after accounting for a Labor gain in New South Wales.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,325 comments on “Newspoll quarterly aggregates”

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  2. Interesting

    “@JustJen64: #auspol It was suggested by others on twitter and I wish we could Vote on it but @MalcolmFraser12 for GOVERNOR GENERAL ..”

  3. AA ‘Immigrants made Australia the great nation it is today.’

    Immigrants have had both a positive and negative effect on Australia. They have stolen the country from the original inhabitants, they have depleted resources and produced blighted areas. They altered the natural environment and are responsible for mass extinctions and introduced feral animals and plants that are now pests.

    On the others and, they have made it a rather pleasant place to live, where the majority of the population live in relative prosperity.

  5. lizzie

    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 5:34 pm | Permalink

    AA
    Hope that didn’t sound patronising. I certainly didn’t mean it to be.
    ———————–

    I took it as intended.

    Been Labor since I was 15 yr old….ain’t changing….there’s never been a decent alternative that has a conscience, cares about the people and the workers.

    For all the billionaires and Sean’s of the world they seem to ignore the fact that without that minimum wage worker nothing would happen…the country would stop…

  6. Assuming Tisme is genuine then he should have a discussion with Compact Crank about opportunity cost – only if because that’s CC’s favourite topic :P.

    It’s probable that even with paying an employee more than what their work is worth he will still earn more himself simply because his time will be freed up for more profitable work.

  7. [“@JustJen64: #auspol It was suggested by others on twitter and I wish we could Vote on it but @MalcolmFraser12 for GOVERNOR GENERAL ..”]

    If that ever happened, I’d love to see supply blocked.

  17. PeeBee
    [Immigrants have had both a positive and negative effect on Australia. They have stolen the country from the original inhabitants, they have depleted resources and produced blighted areas. They altered the natural environment and are responsible for mass extinctions and introduced feral animals and plants that are now pests.]

    “Advanced” societies have done that wherever they have replaced the original inhabitants. Humans are generally a very destructive species.

  18. AA, I must live in a cocoon, I honestly don’t know how a family could live on an income of $100k. I guess people on such a low incomes survive by sending their kids to government schools and don’t have hospital cover and use public hospitals. I can’t see these people think they get a better deal under the coalition. It might be a snob thing or basic stupidity, but surely people must see that giving women of merit $75k for six months (compared to Sean’s $100k for the year) to have a baby isn’t right.

    I guess some people just like to self harm and vote coalition.

  25. Lizzie

    Part of the reason why the ALP lose support amongst people that are financially successful is the ALP from time to time doesn’t make them feel wanted.

    Which is ironic as many of the policies which have enhanced living standards were introduced by ALP governments.

  27. As i am not a techie (nor am i tone either)

    Is the best way to deal with a computer

    a-Yell at the monitor
    b-Kick the hard-drive
    c-Throw the PC out of the window

    Please noting too technical

  30. mexican

    I thought that once our basic needs were satisfied, we were supposed to aspire to greater things. But it appears that some million/billionaires simply aspire to more money.

  31. Lizzie

    I am not referring to million/billionaires but rather people one responsible incomes or even in certain industries are not always made to feel welcome.

  35. If you ask successful business people why they are in business, making money comes last. If you ask failed business people why they were in business, making money comes first.

  36. On immigration, we are all immigrants. Even among Aboriginal Australians, there were three waves of arrivals, with the latter two displacing the earlier ones. They only survived in Tasmania, prior to the arrival of white immigrants. See “Continent of Hunter Gatherers” by Harry Lourandos.

  38. KEY discussions about the future of health reform have been put on hold for six months to see whether the federal government has the money and motivation to push for further improvements.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/government-puts-key-talks-on-health-reform-on-hold-for-six-months/story-fn59nokw-1226790862873

    Either Dutton has reform fatigue or he is just plain fatigued.

    Alternatively, they have decided to save the nasties until after the re-run of the WA Senate vote.

  40. [zoidlord
    Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 at 3:24 pm | Permalink

    Sean has the gauls to complain about him making $100k and no hire anyone.]

    That’s right. Blame the french.

  41. Sean
    [There comes a point where you have too much work to make anymore money… but to hire someone will cost you a significant amount.

    I am at that point, hence my complaint about minimum wages.]
    That would make you better off, but the potential assistant worse off. Unless that person had no other possible job available, that is a loss for our economy. Driving wages down lowers GDP. GDP would be increased if you could find a way to do all the work yourself, i.e. making you more productive. Unless there is no other IT company capable of doing what you do, from an overall point of view it makes no difference whether you do the extra work or a competitor.

    This is the difference between public policy and private interests, which most libertarians either do not get, or care about.

  42. [ KEY discussions about the future of health reform have been put on hold for six months to see whether the federal government has the money and motivation to push for further improvements. ]

    Translation – lets get a few of the by elections, state elections and any senate re-run out of the way first. Also lets make sure we don’t drop even further in the polls.

    Early 2014 the libs play Mr Nice Guy.

    Play being the key word.

  45. [Alternatively, they have decided to save the nasties until after the re-run of the WA Senate vote.]

    They’d be mad not to. WA voters have already experienced the nasties from a state Liberal govt, and are well attuned to the litany of broken promises.

  46. [Either Dutton has reform fatigue or he is just plain fatigued.]

    Dutton’s job is to do nothing and try and keep Health of the agenda as a media issue.

  47. mexican

    [people on responsible incomes or even in certain industries are not always made to feel welcome]

    I knew you weren’t only talking about $bnaires and I have noticed you sometimes react at critical comments not necessarily directed at you. There are some heavy prejudices revealed amongst bludgers which are probably typical of the gen popn, not just Labor. That’s the price we pay for enjoying meeting a broad sample. It’s the posters who think we all have the same attitudes (“leftie, boo”) that I find childish.

  48. Do people on “responsible incomes” require Government assistance? It seems that people who object to means testing are those with the means to be tested.

  49. PeeBee

    [I must live in a cocoon, I honestly don’t know how a family could live on an income of $100k. I guess people on such a low incomes survive by sending their kids to government schools and don’t have hospital cover and use public hospitals.]

    Was this a spoof or did you mean it?

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