BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

This week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate puts Labor well into absolute majority territory, marking their sixth consecutive improvement.

The latest weekly BludgerTrack update neatly reflects the results of the most recent Newspoll, ReachTEL and Nielsen polls in landing bang on 52-48 to Labor. The Labor primary vote has a four in front of it for the first time since BludgerTrack opened for business at the start of the year, albeit by the barest of margins, with a 1.4% gain this week coming off a drop for minor parties while the Coalition holds steady at 40.9%. The latest state-level data points have fuelled a blowout in the result for Queensland, and while there has certainly been some indication of softness for the Coalition there recently (notably the 11% swing which showed up in Nielsen), I’m pretty sure the present extent of it will prove to be aberration. The two weakest state swings for Labor happen to be where elections are due shortly, although you might argue that a Holden shutdown effect is yet to come through in South Australia.

This will probably be the last update for the year – certainly Essential Research will not be back until the middle of next month, and I imagine that’s it for Morgan as well. Newspoll has never been in the business of polling beyond early December, but hopefully The Australian will shortly offer state breakdowns from its accumulated post-election polling so a bit more ballast can be added to the BludgerTrack state dataset.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,089 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 53 of 62
1 52 53 54 62
  1. I tell you what?

    The next time a Labor PM is in government and the Liberal Party supporters and stooges BEHAVE THEMSELVES then maybe respect will be DESERVED.

  2. Well done, you’ve worked out that all PMs receive harsh criticism. Maybe you can remember this lesson next time you enter with “HATEFUL LEFTIES ARE BEING MEEEEEEEEEEAN TO ABBOTT!” bullshit

  3. [No media commentator EVER called for Howard to be kicked to death!

    No media commentator EVER called for Howard to be put in a chaff bag and thrown into the ocean!]

    Alan Jones is but one person… now name all the others?

    [Howard was never termed a bitch and a witch.]

    Oh noes! Not a witch! And a bitch!!! OMG OMG OMG!!

    Try War Criminal, Brown Noser, Arselicker… then we get into the really nasty leftie ones… John Coward is a Hunt… John Howard is a Nazi…

    I mean this was all par of the course for the lefties back in Howards day, the only difference was the media didn’t do a big story write up on every nasty attack and scream sexism and misogyny.

    We simply ignored it and Howard got on with the job of governing rather than being a complete and total glass jaw sore loser.

  4. Tisme

    You sure have got an effing hide to tell people here to shut up about boats.

    You hold the unbeatable record for whinging about boats.

    I tell you what?

    You get your bloke to honour his election promise to turn back the boats and to stop the boats and we will ZIP.

    In the meantime, go and get yourself nicked!

  5. [We simply ignored it and Howard got on with the job of governing rather than being a complete and total glass jaw sore loser.]

    He didn’t do a very good job of ‘getting on with the job’ wasted the boom and built in a structural deficit with tax cuts we couldn’t afford.

  6. Tisme

    Alan Jones has got a massive audience relative to many others.

    Where was Howard called a war criminal (which he was anyway) in the mainstream media?

    Stop acting like a typical right wing hypocrite!

  7. Hatred was NEVER directed towards Howard in the same way as Gillard in the MAINSTREAM MEDIA.

    The behaviour by their MSM Liberal Party supporters and stooges was disgraceful.

    Next time a Labor PM is in government, the Liberal Party supporters and stooges in the MSM should behave themselves!

  8. Sean Tisme
    Posted Monday, December 23, 2013 at 2:17 pm | Permalink
    [“The handbag hit squad…”]

    There’s one example right there.

    At one stage I posted here and elsewhere, about a dozen plus examples of sexism,misigyny and violence directed at women and Gillard in particular by Tony Abbott.
    Just him.
    The list grew if I added other prominent COALition politicians eg Pyne, it grew even more if I added LIberal Party officials eg the bloke who called Sales a cow, the Lib senator who meowed at Wong – many more.
    If I added media supporters of the COALition the list got even longer [Sean’s comment above came from within the Party and was echoed by the media].

    Face it – it is well documented that the COALition is sexist and misogynist.

  9. What gets me about the screams of moral outrage from the Gillardites is the double standards. Most if not all of the Labor MP’s and particularly the Extreme Greens have been to the most feral of feral protests against the Howard Government with banners so offensive I couldn’t repeat them… but some bloke rocks up with what I would consider a mildly offensive “Ditch the Witch” poster and they go into mental breakdown.

    I mean… give.. me… a break!

  10. Tisme

    If you lot claim that you simply ignored any hatred towards Howard as you have said @ 2603 – well why not do likewise with Abbott?

    We know the answer to that don’t we!

    Beazley and Rudd as opposition leaders, although disliked Howard, showed nothing but respect for him in his role as PM.

    Can you say the same for Abbott showing the same respect for Gillard?

    No you can’t you little so and so!

  11. Here is an incomplete list of COALition sexism etc.

    – “Mr. Abbott observed: “Gillard won’t lie down and die ….”

    – Tony Abbott” Julia Gillard has a “target on her forehead”.

    – Mr. Abbott : “Are you suggesting to me that when it comes from Julia, ‘No’ doesn’t mean ‘No’?”

    -Joe Hockey “Wayne Swan is to surpluses what Paris Hilton is to celibacy”.

    -Bill Heffernan [re the PM] “I mean anyone who chooses to remain deliberately barren …”

    – Penny Wong has reacted angrily after Coalition Senator David Bushby ”meowed” at her in a committee hearing today…[from the ABC website]
    -Nats senator Ron Boswell “2 mothers or 2 fathers can’t raise a child properly. Who takes the boy to football? Who tells him what’s right from wrong? What does he do? Go along with mum, or 2 mums? How does he go camping or fishing? It won’t work, it’s defying nature!”
    – John Howard’s former chief of staff, Grahame Morris said about Julia Gillard that Australians “ought to be kicking her to death”.

    – former deputy federal director of the Liberal Party Grahame Morris said “Leigh Sales can be a bit of a cow sometimes when she does interviews”.

    -Tony Abbott : that Gillard ”make an honest woman of herself”

    – Convoy of No Confidence with the famous photos of 3 Liberal MPs including Mirabella, Bishop the elder and LOTO Tony Abbott, in front of signs –“Ditch the witch” –“ Bob Brown’s bitch”.

    – Sophie Mirabella has been known to call out, “Here comes the weather girl” as Kate Ellis rises to speak in parliament

    -The club [Sydney University Liberal Club] tweeted the next day: “Brilliant speech by Alan Jones last night. It’s no wonder he’s the nation’s most influential broadcaster [The Age]
    – The impeccably dressed Bishop smiles awkwardly as Abbott throws an arm around her shoulders, squeezes a few times, and tells the media mob before them, “She’s a loyal girl”. [SMH Dec 09]

    – “Tony Abbott when he was thanking Sarah Murdoch at his book launch. He turned to Lachlan and thanked him for allowing Sarah to launch the book.”

    I’ve got a lot more but that should prove the point.
    The COALition is sexist.

  12. @Sean/2597

    Howard is a War Criminal since we were told that IRAQ had Weapons of Mass Destruction, when they didn’t.

    We had entered a war that we didn’t and should not have entered, on the bases of USA.

  13. [The double standards are coming from you.]

    Of course they are!

    Tisme is trying to imitate his fellow extreme right wing hypocrites!

  14. [ “Tony Abbott when he was thanking Sarah Murdoch at his book launch. He turned to Lachlan and thanked him for allowing Sarah to launch the book.”]

    I didn’t hear that one. It is an example of such old-fashioned thinking that I can’t believe anyone would admit to it. Especially a man who thinks he can represent modern Australia.

  15. Why do you all have to be so boring and dull and unintelligent? And all the fucking time in great big circles. I can’t deal with it any more.

    I’m outta here. Happy Christmas bitches.

  16. What about when Abbott called Gillard “a piece of work” in parliament?

    Did Beazley or Rudd EVER call Howard a piece of work in parliament?

    Hatred oozes out of the Abbott Liberals.

    The next time a Labor PM is in office – Behave yourselves!

  17. Turkey
    I have never ever responded to a single one of your diatribes but this pathetic effusion deserves one.
    You must be a very shallow, disturbed person.
    Get some help over the break!

  18. [The only thing that will come of it is to give the coalition more ammunition to beat Labor with]

    Still the opposition aren’t they?

  19. Centre,

    [Howard was never termed…a witch.]

    But you have to give it to him – he was quite a wizard with those core and non-core promises.

  20. [confessions
    Posted Monday, December 23, 2013 at 2:30 pm | Permalink
    How would you know it won’t backfire?

    For the reasons Carey has said. This is about giving the coalition a stick to beat Labor with. Nothing else.]

    Undoubtedly that’s what they want from it, but whether they achieve it or not remains to be seen. Let’s not forget the growing number of sticks the Labor opposition already has to beat Abbott and crew over THEIR collective heads – and there are plenty more still to come. With a united Labor team now and a good articulate leader this is no longer a one way contest.

  21. [But you have to give it to him – he was quite a wizard with those core and non-core promises.]

    And the weapons of mass destruction were made to vanish like they’d never existed.

  22. WWP,

    [And the weapons of mass destruction were made to vanish like they’d never existed.]

    Yes, Tones has a bit to go before he comes up to the standard of his old master. He still hasn’t been able to make the boats vanish.

  23. The way Julia Gillard, our first ever female PM, was treated by the MSM was despicable and appalling.

    I actually would not have been offended had it been directed to a male PM or a Labor male PM, but for our first ever female PM to be treated that way by the MSM was unacceptable.

    Now, because they have a Liberal Party PM, who basically even orchestrated the hate – they want the hatred to stop!

    You gotta laugh 😆

  24. [Yes, Tones has a bit to go before he comes up to the standard of his old master. He still hasn’t been able to make the boats vanish.]

    He is just trying to pretend they have. Great Pretender.

  25. In Tony Abbott’s Canberra office, Mildred is the Young Liberal intern-cum-office-junior who has been told she is looking after the shop on her own while everyone else is off gallivanting for the Christmas break.

    Mildred has been told by Tony she has to come in on Christmas day and the following eleven days, and work there on her own until the rest of the staff wander in after the twelve days.

    To say that Mildred is pissed off, is a big understatement. Especially as she has had a sneak preview of her duties as laid out by Tones over the twelve days. She reckons Tones must have raided the stationery and laundry cupboards to keep her busy, and is also expecting her to field all the complaints/queries coming in on the phone.

    To Mildred, Tones makes Ebenezer Scrooge (before the ghosts put the fear of god in him) look like Bill Gates on happy pills.

    Sing along with Miserable Mildred and try to lift her spirits as she sadly surveys the list of chores Tones has in mind for her over the Twelve Days of Christmas.

    (I’ve listed just the individual twelve days; for brevity’s sake I haven’t layered them as per the original)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obGjx8Hry3M

    On the first day of Christmas
    Scrooge Abbott left for me:
    A cartridge for the Fuji
    :- (
    On the second day of Christmas
    Scrooge Abbott left for me:
    2 rubber gloves
    etc…
    :- (
    On the third day of Christmas
    Scrooge Abbott left for me:
    3 French francs
    etc…
    :- (
    On the fourth day of Christmas
    Scrooge Abbott left for me:
    4 Fraudband cords
    etc…
    :- (
    On the fifth day of Christmas
    Scrooge Abbott left for me:
    5 fluro vests
    etc…
    :- (
    On the sixth day of Christmas
    Scrooge Abbott left for me:
    6 budgies humming
    etc…
    :- (
    On the seventh day of Christmas
    Scrooge Abbott left for me:
    7 polls a dimming
    etc…
    :- (
    On the eighth day of Christmas
    Scrooge Abbott left for me:
    8 piles of ironing
    etc…
    :- (
    On the ninth day of Christmas
    Scrooge Abbott left for me:
    9 boatphones ringing
    etc…
    :- (
    On the tenth day of Christmas
    Scrooge Abbott left for me:
    10 rorts for claiming
    etc…
    :- (
    On the eleventh day of Christmas
    Scrooge Abbott left for me:
    11 surprises for spinning
    etc…
    :- (
    On the twelfth day of Christmas
    Scrooge Abbott left for me:
    12 shares in Holden
    etc…

  26. The WMD / Boat comparison is interesting too because although Howard went to war based on lies, if they had been true they would have posed an international threat (whether or not that justified a war who knows). Tony on the other hand has gone to war on boats, essentially as political theatre on top of political lies. There is just no substance to the boy.

  27. [Get some help over the break!]

    If I was a resurgent turkey at Xmas time I’d be trying to avoid resurging straight into a cooking pot, not taunting Lefties with those cutting barbs (Oh! How they sting!) and making strange gobbling noises.

  28. Centre,

    [AC

    Oh yes, but when it came to Iraq, pity he couldn’t pull out any WMD’s out of a hat]

    Too right. He’d have more success pulling them out of his arse.

  29. Thank you Poll Bludgers for your good wishes, before I go I received a tweet this morning from one of my followers which I wish a couple of Poll Bludgers would read (I know they won’t, as not in their DNA to read articles like this) however perhaps some of the more caring Poll Bludgers may read it and think.

    I have done one of the things the writer suggested, it also articulates my own feeling much better than I can!

    http://wrb330.wordpress.com/2013/12/23/christmas-2013-2/

    Happy Christmas and best wishes for 2014

  30. Spare a thought for them over at News Corp as they run Operation Sovereign Bullshit.

    No matter how high they pile the sandbags, they can’t stop glimmers of reality seeping through the lines of their staunch redoubt.

    Every now and again a crazy medal-hunting bastard will snap, and go over the top, bayonet fixed, seeking to cut a swathe through the hordes of Leftists, Unionists and Basket Weavers who continually taunt them with chants of “Tony Abbott is a real stinker!”.

    Why, only a couple of days ago Shanahan went beserk with the pen and wrote of Tony’s “calmness” and “civility” behind closed doors. He slaughtered thousands of pinko Laborites with his proud pronouncement that Tony would “do the job for nothing,” knowing that Tony hasn’t ever done anything for nothing, not even attending his own charity events without filling out a chit for Accommodation Allowance. No wedding is safe without Tony, turning up showering confetti on the happy couple while glad handing anyone within reach so that he can say it was “a political event” and score a Free Meal Coupon from Finance.

    Shanahan knew full well the import of his words. He knew that it would send the assembled Long Haired ex-hippies in the corduroy trousers (who read his columns so assiduously, despite having to climb the pay-wall to do so) apoplectic with hatred and rage.

    He had behind him the Old Malignant One, Rupert, with a pocket full of pink slips for the shirkers. Only the names had to be filled out in Ruperts latest Night Of The Long Knives. Would Shanners keep his job? Better to do something wacky and wonderful, like tell us how swimmingly the Abbott government has been so far, how smoothly it has transitioned from crude Opposition to statesmanlike Government. That alone would probably get a a couple of hundred Gillard Lovers impaling themselves on spikes, just to stop the noise!

    As long as Dennis outshone Sheridan in the Man-Love Game they play at the Fort Holt Street, he and his 11 children would have food on the table for another quarter, until the next round of summary journalistic executions was scheduled to take place.

    It ain’t easy being the Good Guys in all this. Even News Corp hacks deserve a little friendly sympathy over the Christmas period.

  31. Please let this not be where we are headed as a society.

    Hang on. We have George Street drunken violence.

    [ There was a time in America when retail brawls only broke out around Thanksgiving dinner time (and increasingly earlier with every passing year).

    It appears that’s no longer the case as the recent release of the Air Jordan 11s reveals.

    USA Today reports that following the release of Jordan 11 Retro Gamma Blue sneakers on Saturday, “the nation just about fell apart.” One week ago, a crowd tore down a mall door just to get an advance ticket to buy the $185 Jordans. With the shoes now officially on sale, the world appears to be ending. ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-22/fights-break-out-across-america-over-latest-air-jordans-release

  32. I admire Prime Minister Abbott because:

    (1) He does not lie.
    (2) He does not make excuses.
    (3) He does not break his promises.
    (4) His Government is marked by transparency.
    (5) His Government is marked by accountability.

  33. psyclaw@2569

    Bemused, Comrade

    I agree with your assessment of the RC. There is a good chance it is a ticking time-bomb for Abbott ……”never start an enquiry unless……… etc”

    ….

    Also hopefully this vindictive RC will come back and bite Abbott …… It’ll be interesting if the recommendations include more and better regs ….. An anathema to the “reduce red tape” conservos.

    Thanks for your learned comment comrade.

    As I said, I did some googling as I am not connected with the legal profession and could only go by what was on the Internet.

    I read nothing which gave me bad vibes about Ian Hanger and in fact I read some things I drew comfort from.

    One curious fact I did learn about him was that he was the original “McKenzie’s Friend”.

  34. Boerwar
    (6)He has surrounded himself with a first rate team of Ministers
    (7)He answers to no-one in his office
    (8) He has opened the country for business

  35. [I admire Prime Minister Abbott because:

    (1) He does not lie.
    (2) He does not make excuses.
    (3) He does not break his promises.
    (4) His Government is marked by transparency.
    (5) His Government is marked by accountability.]

    Champagne comedy!

  36. The 6 months for the Hanger RC seems a bit short. He will not really be able to do much work until February, then he will need at least a month to prepare the report.

    My first bet is he will ask for an extension of time, my next is he will stray down a few rabbit holes as all RCs do.

    If he wants Cabinet Documents, get knicked will be the answer.

    The manipulation of the batt market may be something suppliers may be a tad worried about.

  37. WeWantPaul@2595

    But will it bring up facts that are bad for the Coalition? Will it recommend increasing safety by increasing unionisation, for example?


    I don’t think it can, all its references are framed to avoid looking at the one important question. I don’t know the lawyer at all but I do know that no one in their right mind would have become the face of this political farce.

    Frank Costigan took on the Painters and Dockers Royal Commission which was set up as an anti-union witch hunt and look where that ended up. 😀

    Could Hanger do something similar? We won’t know for quite a while yet.

Comments Page 53 of 62
1 52 53 54 62

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *