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| Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Liberal and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
The electorate of Grey has covered the bulk of South Australia’s land mass since the state was first divided into electorates in 1903, and it currently encompasses much the same territory as it did on its creation. The state’s eastern regions north of the Riverland were at times accommodated by Wakefield, but Grey has at all times accommodated the state’s west together with the “iron triangle” cities of Whyalla, Port Augusta and Port Pirie. Labor-voting Whyalla is the electorate’s largest centre with a population of around 22,000, while increasingly marginal Port Augusta and Port Pirie together with strongly conservative Port Lincoln on the lower Eyre Peninsula each have populations of slightly over 13,000. About 60 per cent of the electorate’s population is scattered through the remainder, the strongest concentration being in the rural conservative Yorke Peninsula. The latter area was added to the electorate from Wakefield when South Australia’s representation was reduced from 12 seats to 11 in 2004.
Grey’s industrial centres once made it a reliable seat for Labor, but their decline over recent decades has effected a decisive shift to the Liberals. Labor held the seat for all but one term between 1943 and 1993, the exception being after the landslide defeat of 1966. Laurie Wallis recovered the seat for Labor in 1969 and retained it by margins of 563 votes in 1975 and 65 votes in 1977, surviving on the latter occasion in the face of an unfavourable redistribution, and bequeathed the seat to Lloyd O’Neil in 1983. The turning point arrived in 1993, when the addition of the Clare Valley (since transferred to Wakefield) and the retirement of O’Neil opened the way for Barry Wakelin to win the seat for the Liberals on the back of a 4.3% swing. The Liberals’ position has been strengthening ever since, helping Wakelin to achieve swings of 6.4% in 1996, 1.9% in 2001 and 3.2% in 2004, with a correction of only 0.5% to Labor in 1998. Wakelin’s retirement in 2007 combined with the overall swing to Labor cut the margin that year from 13.8% to 4.4%, but the Liberal ascendancy has since been firmly re-established by successive swings of 6.7% and 2.4% in 2010 and 2013. The member since 2007 has been Rowan Ramsey, who runs a farming property at Buckleboo on the Eyre Peninsula.
Sean, at what point will it sink in to the sad excuse of a brain of yours that people who seek asylum by boat are not “illegal”
People who indulge in the language that you do are no more than small minded racists.
“….simply make asylum seeking by boat illegal….”
And what purpose would this serve that would be much different from the current situation? Would those arriving by sea be detained or deported? This already happens. Would they be incarcerated indefinitely? This is already in prospect. Could they be returned to, say, Afghanistan, Iran, Myanmar or Bangladesh without the consent of those countries? Hardly.
The unfortunate reality is that Abbott had a chance to develop a collaborative system with Indonesia. That might have eventually stemmed the flow of arrivals. But he has blown his chances. He has completely stuffed it up by his arrogance, his aggression, his deceptions and his stupidity.
He is an abject failure already.
One of the reasons Labor’s attacks on the Coalition often failed (while in government) is that they themselves made too many mistakes and were not trusted. You can’t do things from a position of weakness as you would from a position of strength. Conversely, that is what made the Coalition’s attacks simple to prosecute.
Now it’s the other way around. It will take patience, restraint and constructive governance or some significant external influence – i.e. not this he said, she said stuff they are currently trying to engage in – to shift things and put them back in a position to carry out the same sorts of attacks on Labor as they did before.
dare to read @ 1038
Good question.
Conflicting evidence abounds.
Precision is difficult.
Election result 53 [coal]:47 [alp] would suggest ..’lots’.
Last 2 major polls 48 [coal]: 52 [alp] would suggest…’not many’, in fact the public is reading the reverse to the media/COAL line.
Probably ‘some’ will believe the media/COALition, for a ‘while’ at least.
Will that be ‘enough’ to keep the wolves away from Tony and his mates?
I think it will.
Once Rupert and Gina’s mob get going, with the ABC at heel, I expect those polls to narrow and even go back to the COAL.
We’ll see.
Henry
Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 1:33 pm | PERMALINK
Bernard Keane is the main reason i do not subscribe to Crikey.
I can understand that, I almost didn’t resubscribe to Crikey because of him, now am slightly regretting I did , make it harder when my subscription notice comes up again I can tell you.
Henry @ 1043,
Same here re Keane, plus the fact that Crikey is not really an alternative to anything – just more of the same.
Had a look through Poll Bludger posts after being out, the one thing I did notice about the only ones who didn’t offer their condolences to Guytaur were Robot sean and the Turkey. Says a lot doesn’t it?
Abbott might just get away with blaming Labor for the blow out in the budget. But he is going to have to claim that he will fix it. He cannot fix it without changing his policies on tax or spending or both. For this, he will be entirely accountable.
[Bernard Keane is the main reason i do not subscribe to Crikey]
Same here. Rarely bother to read it.
Mind you he has written some good stuff – rarely.
Its mostly crap.
Even if he is succesful in blaming Labor for everything, it’s unlikely to shift opinion. Labor has already been punished.
CTari re The French in CAR
______________
In their usually stupid way a French Govt has commited itself to, intervention in CAR and now appeals for help from Europe as the situation worsens
They have also done the same in Mali in recent times
Hollande and the Socialists are as much mad imperialists as Sarkosi was,and they would have intervened in Syria except that the US took fright as El Quida emerged to lead the rebels
The French have learned nothing from their Indo-China and Algerian experiences…pure national folly
Their politicians like to seem important on the world stage(the Brits do that too)and vainly strut around…on the ground they are mired in conflict again…already losing lives
[But he is going to have to claim that he will fix it.]
Yup. But he has already claimed he can fix it.
[He cannot fix it without changing his policies on tax or spending or both.]
True, but he is in a bind here. They have already taken a position that they are going to FURTHER weaken the revenue side of the budget, AND on spending they seem to be targeting low income earners rather than high ones. That will not play well.
Hockey is in an awful position, but he deserves to be.
Oh, and right now the economy is the ALP’s to own. It’s soft but it’s not terrible. Not something the ALP can really “win” on, but neither can the LNP.
The big question is what happens to the economy next year.
A sharp deterioration in employment, an actual recession, the LNP would be doomed – and for a very long time.
However, if the economy does pick up then the LNP get to reinforce their “economic manager” credentials (probably by dumb luck, but hey it hasn’t hurt them in the past), and could well be looking at 2 to 3 terms.
Personally I think the economy is going to head south, but that may be my political bias affecting my economic view.
The only thing the LNP (and thus the economy) have going for them at the moment is confidence. It’s still in positive territory post-election, but consumer and business confidence have taken a few hits and any more bad news will tip it into negative territory.
Funny that Hockey is trying to talk the economy down right now.
It honestly seems like the LNP don’t understand the consequences of their decisions. It’s some grand political game to them, with the LNP playing by university politics rules, and they see some strategy (run the economy down early, blame ALP, hand out gifts in 2 years, win election!) that makes sense to them, but any outside observer would shake their head.
Deb
[already losing lives]
Yep, it’s not going well.
Part of a report on “first 100 days” with votes currently on 66% rating “very poor”
Among the “goals”. By the time March comes the decisions on where to cut will have well and truly been made. One good cut would be the useless, wasteful Direct Action Plan.
[ESTABLISH A COMMISSION OF AUDIT
Designed to identify waste, established in October and will report in January and March.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-says-forecast-deficit-of-more-than-40-billion-not-his-governments-fault-20131215-2zfc2.html#ixzz2nbPmsE2t
Look at Watson go!! 🙂
Also, the current deterioration in the government’s polls have nothing/little to do with Labor, blaming them for things won’t help any.
DTT
I think most apolitical voters will yawn and ask their Mum or OH or flatmate “what’s for tea?” Others may extend the comment further to “is there anything decent on TV tonight?”
Those who are less apolitical might ask “why is Hockey on TV; is he now Swan’s deppity treasurer?”
The really astute punters who actually recognise Hockey and know that he has some relationship with Abbott will probably say nothing, but the thought might cross their mind for a fleeting moment “gee Labor is bad but that’s OK ……. I’ve already voted them out.”
And then they’ll get on suckin up their spaghetti bol.
And Joe will huff n puff n bluster on.
BW
[[This is just one of the many reasons why you would be amongst the first to be lined up against a wall.]
While neither life nor politics ever offers guarantees I find it hard to believe that anyone will find him/herself “up against a wall” as a consequence of any process in which I have been actively involved. I am, as you know, someone who regards good process as inseparable from good goals — and as the surest guarantee of sustainable progress.
So were I to have substanital authority in any political movement, it could only be because most others shared my paradigm. It’s also the case that this country (by contrast with those where people do get executed for being on the losing side of a political conflict) has (with the arguable exception of the conflicts between the Eureopean occupiers and the indigenes) been unmarked by systematic violence by any significant section of the population against the other resulting in deaths. It’s hard to imagine that such a state could arise here or what its social base could be.
That all noted, an unwillingness amongst those of us who recognise injustice when we see it to press hard for inclusive governance and the empowerment of working humanity merely out of fear at the notional possibility that we might stand worse, or even be killed would be ethically indefensible. The interests that the many have in a society based on social justice, equity and reason easily trump the fears any of us might harbour regarding our own safety. To shrink from our duty on so flimsy a basis would condemn us as hypocrites and cowards, and no better at all than those we frequently chide.
So while one should certainly have a care in one’s processes and advocacy to what is feasible and maintainable at any given conjuncture, one may never abandon one’s attempt to approach the ideal.
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 3m
PM Abbott takes just one other question then walks off…..!]
I suppose this was on the announcement of troops withdrawing. What’s he scared of in that?
[Look at Watson go!! :)]
Here’s a man desperate for a hundred before his skipper declares. 🙂
Poor Poms.
[Bernard Keane is the main reason i do not subscribe to Crikey]
Wow what an attitude. He doesn’t say the stuff you wanna hear so you don’t subscribe?
While I don’t agree with everything Bernard Keane says he writes some good stuff now and again. He is certainly not a partisan hack and is happy to whack both sides.
Dennis Jensen has a go at Turnbull over his support for same sex marriage. I suppose His Holiness Kevin Andrews and that worm Morrison will be next.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-colleagues-cory-bernardi-and-dennis-jensen-criticise-malcolm-turnbull-over-gay-marriage-comments-20131216-2zghl.html
deblonay
[CTari re The French in CAR
______________
In their usually stupid way a French Govt has commited itself to, intervention in CAR and now appeals for help from Europe as the situation worsens
They have also done the same in Mali in recent times
Hollande and the Socialists are as much mad imperialists as Sarkosi was,and they would have intervened in Syria except that the US took fright as El Quida emerged to lead the rebels
The French have learned nothing from their Indo-China and Algerian experiences…pure national folly
Their politicians like to seem important on the world stage(the Brits do that too)and vainly strut around…on the ground they are mired in conflict again…already losing lives]
The French got themselves a shocker of a reputation for the way in which they exited, or where exited from, their colonies. This does not mean that everything they do now just has to be bad.
The french intervention in Mali was overwhelmingly successful in stopping a small minority of murderous islamo-totalitarians from over-running the joint. It wa also an exemplar of military action being finely tuned to just the job it was meant to do. I am not sure why you are knocking them for that.
I do know that the US (and its MSM hacks world-wide) has never forgiven the ‘cheese-eating surrender monkeys’ for being 100% right about Iraq.
As for CA, if the french reckon that another Ruanda is on the way, that they are trying to stop it, and they are asking them for help, what is wrong with that? Do you want another genocide to get cracking first to prove that intervention is justified?
If Latika tweets that, it must be a sign that the patience of the press gallery is wearing thin. Not that they can do anything about it, as their bosses have a gun to their collective heads.
Keane is one of the reasons I do subscribe to Crikey. And the rest – including this blog which would not exist without Crikey.
Turnbull is goading Abbott, as he has done on and off for a fair while now.
Turnbull has picked a winner because he knows that the Government’s mediaeval position is very unpopular.
If Abbott sacks Turnbull over this one, it is Abbott who would receive the political damage.
Good policy makes for good politics, right?
well, i know what i would like to see today.
Once Watson gets his hundred or out and the lead is 450+, for Clarke to just tell them to all 20/20 and have some fun before he declares. Make the Pommy bowlers a gift for their figures?? 🙂
@BW/1077
Yes but Turnbull is being told to shut up by nasty Tory right, Cory Bernardi.
This blog did exist before crikey boerwar and i imagine it could survive again without it if it ever came to that.
Actually, with 10 4’s and 5 6’s, Watson is already doing the 2-/20 thing on them. 🙂
mari
[Had a look through Poll Bludger posts after being out, the one thing I did notice about the only ones who didn’t offer their condolences to Guytaur were Robot sean and the Turkey. Says a lot doesn’t it?]
Not really. You’ll notice we didn’t say anything bad about it either. You’re the only one who couldn’t control yourself or resist being a fool about it (and fool is a very generous way of putting it).
..and Watto makes another big score in junk time which will secure his place in the side for another 5 tests…
Bob Gosford is worth a read.
Ben Sandilands’ ‘Plane Talking” is good.
Shakira Hussein has written some good stuff.
Occasionally, very much so, a guest will contribute something worthwhile.
But most of the time its mere repetition of MSM memes.
Today for example.
Remember when Alan Kohlher was a regular?
RT 1082
Not really where are the posts then by you and baby sean, gobble gobble???
From leone’s link:
[Liberal MP Dennis Jensen said he agreed that Mr Turnbull’s public support for gay marriage was inappropriate.
“I think Malcolm sees himself as a little bit above the frontbench when he speaks about some sociological issues if you will,” Dr Jensen told Fairfax Media.]
Well, I don’t ‘will’ that at all. IMHO, marriage laws are not a sociological issue.
I do think that Bernardi and Jensen are right, though. Turnbull is flouting several rules:
(1) ministers should stick to their ministerial responsibilities
(2) Cabinet solidarity means that ministers should stick to the Government’s policies.
But here is the thing: Abbott&Co deliberately and systematically trashed convention after convention in Opposition.
They did their best to trash a governants and governance. They did their best to trash the economy by talking it down.
If there are no rules of human decency, of tradition, of convention, of truthfulness, if there is only power – grabbing power and holding on to power – then Turnbull is merely being consistent with the Abbott Opposition substance and style.
Whatever it takes, Dennis.
Whatever it takes, Cory.
Henry
[This blog did exist before crikey boerwar and i imagine it could survive again without it if it ever came to that.]
It did and it may. Right now it does.
Interesting, Watson gone for 103 and a drinks break. with an almost new ball will Clarke declare??
Hoa Ham is now around West White Beach, while Ocean Princess is hanging further back up towards Flying Fish Cove.
The one blight on this test, should Australia happen to win it, would be Watson’s ton.
I know it is prejudiced and not nice and all the rest of it, but I simply unadmire him.
Well, it looks like the Rugby League insiders got last Wednesday wRONg, muchly.
Bernardi and Jensen should stick to climate science. They are both better at that than anything else they try their hands at.
[Boerwar
Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 2:14 pm | Permalink
Keane is one of the reasons I do subscribe to Crikey. And the rest – including this blog which would not exist without Crikey.
]
+1
Boerwar@1091
What has happened in the Thugby League BW ?
YB
[What has happened in the Thugby League BW ?]
Nothing.
Various Rugby League insiders were tipping that ASADA would send out a slew of infraction notices to players and a coach last Wednesday.
It did not happen.
this is great. http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-colleagues-cory-bernardi-and-dennis-jensen-criticise-malcolm-turnbull-over-gay-marriage-comments-20131216-2zghl.html
Turnbull has started his stalking campaign – probably earlier than even he thought he’d need to. he’ll just keep reminding people that he’s there, he’s not tony abbott, and he’s ready to take the job when they get desperate (i.e. on current polling, sometime within the next 12 months – when their primary vote hits under 40. he may wait for hockey to have a go and burn out in a mal meninga style brain snap – I can see Joe doing this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dt–SGmIKIQ , but turnbull aim to lead the libs at the next election). pity turnbull has been so gutless on carbon pricing.
If Jensen and Bernardi are leaping to attack you, you know you’ve got to be doing something right hey Malcolm?
[Bernardi and Jensen should stick to climate science. They are both better at that than anything else they try their hands at.]
Ohhh, so BW has taken a nasty pill today??? 🙂
Guytaur,
My sincere condolences on the passing away of your Mother. That must be hard, but is good that she enjoyed more years due to someone’s ultimate gift.
Boerwar@1095
They’ll deal with the Bummers first, I suspect.