Seat of the week: Grey

The seat which covers most of the geographical area of South Australia has typified Labor’s decline in regional areas by transforming from safe Labor to safe Liberal status since the early 1990s.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Liberal and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

The electorate of Grey has covered the bulk of South Australia’s land mass since the state was first divided into electorates in 1903, and it currently encompasses much the same territory as it did on its creation. The state’s eastern regions north of the Riverland were at times accommodated by Wakefield, but Grey has at all times accommodated the state’s west together with the “iron triangle” cities of Whyalla, Port Augusta and Port Pirie. Labor-voting Whyalla is the electorate’s largest centre with a population of around 22,000, while increasingly marginal Port Augusta and Port Pirie together with strongly conservative Port Lincoln on the lower Eyre Peninsula each have populations of slightly over 13,000. About 60 per cent of the electorate’s population is scattered through the remainder, the strongest concentration being in the rural conservative Yorke Peninsula. The latter area was added to the electorate from Wakefield when South Australia’s representation was reduced from 12 seats to 11 in 2004.

Grey’s industrial centres once made it a reliable seat for Labor, but their decline over recent decades has effected a decisive shift to the Liberals. Labor held the seat for all but one term between 1943 and 1993, the exception being after the landslide defeat of 1966. Laurie Wallis recovered the seat for Labor in 1969 and retained it by margins of 563 votes in 1975 and 65 votes in 1977, surviving on the latter occasion in the face of an unfavourable redistribution, and bequeathed the seat to Lloyd O’Neil in 1983. The turning point arrived in 1993, when the addition of the Clare Valley (since transferred to Wakefield) and the retirement of O’Neil opened the way for Barry Wakelin to win the seat for the Liberals on the back of a 4.3% swing. The Liberals’ position has been strengthening ever since, helping Wakelin to achieve swings of 6.4% in 1996, 1.9% in 2001 and 3.2% in 2004, with a correction of only 0.5% to Labor in 1998. Wakelin’s retirement in 2007 combined with the overall swing to Labor cut the margin that year from 13.8% to 4.4%, but the Liberal ascendancy has since been firmly re-established by successive swings of 6.7% and 2.4% in 2010 and 2013. The member since 2007 has been Rowan Ramsey, who runs a farming property at Buckleboo on the Eyre Peninsula.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,234 comments on “Seat of the week: Grey”

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  1. doGs. They have to declare after the next wicket surely?? The lead is 474, and next batsman would be Johnson. Save him for bowling unto the hot, sweaty and demoralised tourists?

  2. sf

    [ pity turnbull has been so gutless on carbon pricing.]

    Up to now, Turnbull has been gutless on every single policy. All of them: SSM, the NBN, Gonski and the DAP. He does not personally believe in any the Government’s shit on any of that stuff.

    Cometh the hour, cometh the man. Where was he when the SSM vote was taken? Cross the floor, did he?

    No guts then.

    Now he is cynically playing leadershit games with SSM.

    Turnbull is a gutless power-hungry charlatan who is good at two things:

    (1) being charming, pleasant and humorous
    (2) being policy-free when it comes to his personal power hunger.

  4. [Bernard Keane is the main reason i do not subscribe to Crikey]

    Likewise.

    He would do well on the ABC as he is a master of false balance and false equivalence. He thinks trotting out articles that slam Labor and give hariograhpies to Abbott somehow means he is not a “lefty on a lefty media site”, but a balanced post partisan commentator.

    Pass me a bucket. We are not that stupid.

    My understanding is that he is keeping his options open to take up a more well paid News Ltd gig, so it helps to follow the Australian’s editoral lead when tarting up one’s CV…

  7. [Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane 1m
    the percentage play would have been to bat on, I think. 500 very gettable on this pitch]

    The defence rests.

  8. How could anyone find Turnbull ‘charming’? He comes across as a smarmy, pompous, up himself git. I’ve never found anything about him ‘charming’.

    He can make a decent speech when he tries. Unlike Abbott, Turnbull has the knack of being able to say the right thing on a serious occasion, but that doesn’t mean he means what he says. I’ll add ‘insincere’ to my description.

  11. leone – people do find Turnbull charming – it doesn’t make sense to deny it. I find him charming. I don’t believe a word he says for the most part, but that doesn’t stop him being charming.

    Abbott, apparently, is also charming in person. He just doesn’t do “TV” as well as Turnbull does.

    There are too many reports from sources I trust to deny that Abbott can be very charming.

    That I dislike Abbott intensely, and am unhappy with Turnbull, is neither here nor there – my like or dislike won’t alter the fact that they are both charming (in their own ways).

  14. This diatribe by the invisible Jensen can only help Turnbull’s playbook of keeping himself in the publc eye.

    [Liberal MP Dennis Jensen said he agreed that Mr Turnbull’s public support for gay marriage was inappropriate.

    “I think Malcolm sees himself as a little bit above the frontbench when he speaks about some sociological issues if you will,” Dr Jensen told Fairfax Media.

    “It’s unhelpful. [Gay marriage] is something we decided on not long ago… even if you had a conscience vote it still would not have got up.”

    Dr Jensen said cabinet ministers should “stick to their knitting” and not veer outside their portfolios unless the Prime Minister directed them to do so. Backbenchers had more freedom to speak across a range of issues, but frontbenchers relinquished that liberty, Dr Jensen said.

    “Malcolm should be sticking to his portfolio,” he added. “There are clearly a lot of problems within the NBN that require addressing.”On Monday, Prime Minister Tony Abbott repeated his position that a conscience vote for the Coalition on same-sex marriage would be up to the party room.

    ”If there is a proposal put into the Parliament it will be dealt with by our party room in the normal way,” he told ABC’s Radio National.

    ”In the end, its up to the party room to decide what our policy is.”
    ]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-colleagues-cory-bernardi-and-dennis-jensen-criticise-malcolm-turnbull-over-gay-marriage-comments-20131216-2zghl.html#ixzz2nbgRbwZh

  15. Condolences, guytaur. 🙁

    ——–

    DTT

    Abbott came into office with a major trust and respect deficit, and has done little to discourage that view.

    There is very limited value for him in continuing to blame everybody and everything else for his failures and lies. Especially after all that bogus hyperbolic blather about getting the ‘adults’ back in charge, and being a careful, considered, collegiate government, with no nasty surprises, no excuses, etc.

    It’s transparent bullshit, and one thing I am pretty sure voters do not like from the political class is bad faith and being taken for mugs, and Abbott is pouring bucket loads of it them at the moment, and is likely to continue doing so.

    Abbott will get little forgiveness from voters, for which he can only blame himself and his lifelong take-no-prisoners-nor-responsibility style.

    Those who give no quarter, can expect none.

  17. [1076
    Boerwar
    Posted Monday, December 16, 2013 at 2:14 pm | PERMALINK
    Keane is one of the reasons I do subscribe to Crikey. And the rest – including this blog which would not exist without Crikey.]

    This blog was thriving before it joined Crikey.

  18. Are the proposed port developments in Qld state or private?

    [The study highlighted the significant impact posed to Queensland, where mega-mines are planned for the Galilee Basin.

    The reports says state governments can reduce the risk of their investments ending up as stranded assets by limiting the use of taxpayer dollars on coal-related infrastructure, such as ports and railways.]

    http://econews.com.au/news-to-sustain-our-world/china-climate-moves-put-aust-coal-investments-at-risk/

  19. Psephos, seeing you’re around….

    In yours, would it make any practical difference to the results of Abbott’s AS-policies if Australia were to withdraw from the Refugee Convention?

  21. A comparison between Whitlam’s first 100 days, and Abbott’s.

    [The IPA’s pre-election manifesto, 75 radical ideas to transform Australia, reminded Abbott that “no prime minister changed Australia more than Whitlam”. They identified that the success of this change was based on the rapidity of its legislative pursuit and completion.
    . . . .
    No one could contradict the IPA’s conclusion that Whitlam established a permanent, nation-changing legacy. It may be, then, unwise to dismiss Abbott’s pamphlet as mere propaganda. It is the very disingenuousness of the material that delivers the best evidence yet of his values and agenda. Abbott is every bit as much an activist as Whitlam, but the legacy he is building is not a visionary betterment of Australia. It’s ideological score-setting in a thoroughly vengeful vein.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/dec/16/100-days-under-abbott-is-his-real-legacy-what-were-not-being-told

  22. [In yours, would it make any practical difference to the results of Abbott’s AS-policies if Australia were to withdraw from the Refugee Convention?]

    The only circumstances in which it would be necessary to withdraw from the Convention would be if an Australian court found that the Convention required Australia to admit to its territory people claiming to be refugees.

  23. [Are the proposed port developments in Qld state or private?]

    The Gladstone Ports Corporation is a Government Owned Corporation,

  28. Personally, had I been Clarke, I’d have kept the English out there until there were a maximum of 120 overs left to bowl in the match (assuming Australia hadn’t been bowled out before that).

    At the rate Australia were going Australia would have had a lead about 670+ and the English would have been begging to get into the dressing room.

    That’s what you’d want them to bring to their batting.

  29. I don’t Turnbull is charming – if he gets a question or statement that he is uncomfortable with, he can look very nasty, indeed. That is not charm.

  30. [Personally, had I been Clarke, I’d have kept the English out there until there were a maximum of 120 overs left to bowl in the match ]

    Nah, he would be cognizant that the Poms do manage to dig in and hunker down on occasion.

    I suspect they were begging to get into the rooms anyway. 🙂

  32. I feel somewhat uneasy.

    Root and Bell are quite capable of getting 150 each. Then some contributions from Pieterson and Carberry and it is all over red rover for the Australians in this game.

  34. CTAR1
    Two visible commercial ships, one of which is a regular dropper-offer of supplies, two invisible navy frigates and one invisible Ocean Protector in Flying Fish Cove yesterday, three more invisible navy ships off the coast and a dozen invisible patrol boats – at least – in the area. Just on-water stuff we don’t need to know about.

  35. He has that ‘born-to-rule’ aura which Abbott lacks completely.

    Abbott has a more your ‘born-to-punch holes in walls’ aura.

  36. imacca

    [Nah, he would be cognizant that the Poms do manage to dig in and hunker down on occasion.]

    But not on this occasion and not for 120 overs. The cracks running down the middle of the wicket are in parts 5-6 mm wide and 25mm deep. You want them looking at that, tiring and then allow the bowlers to come out pumped and refreshed after tea as the heat is off and the Fremantle “Doctor” comes in to bowl at them at 140-150ks.
    with four slips, two gullies and a fly slip 2/3 of the way to the fence.

  37. OTOH, Hockey is not charming, witty, suave, debonair, genial or engaging.

    He rather has the aura of someone who simply cannot manage his perspiration.

    What more could one say?

  39. I think you can draw comparisons between Phillip ruddock and turnbull. remember when ruddock was every man’s soft l liberal, amnesty international member, crossed the floor to vote with labor on land rights. Then he got a sniff of power and turned into one of John Howard’s nastiest spear throwers.
    Turnbull did a deal on Rudd on climate change which was something he believed in. Got turfed by his party, and was on the verge of leaving parliament. He knows he has to toe the lunatic line but unlike ruddock, every know and then he forgets himself and answers honestly.
    I daresay the minchinites are plotting his downfall again.

  40. The gimlet-eyed Ms Bishop is definitely not witty.

    She has the aura of being rather over-kempt – as if she has somehow misjudged kemping up with the Joneses.

    As for whether she is engaging – one would rather hope that she does not engage one.

  41. that anyone would think the poms or anyone for that matter, could score 500 runs in the 4th innings obviously does not know the game all that well.

  42. smissva

    [Boerwar

    Did you post something about Cook scoring a double century?]

    Patience is a virtue.

    Cook already has one of the requisite zeroes.

  43. BW

    [Root and Bell are quite capable of getting 150 each.]

    Maybe, but before the much better Saffers got a tick over 400 at the WACA the record there was 342 — and in the Saffers game the pitch really was a road — and Australia missed some chances.

    The English have passed 300 just once in this series and to threaten 500 here against this attack on this pitch in this heat after the absolute battering they’ve taken and largely on the last day a player down (Broad probably won’t bat) would be extraordinary.

    If they can find that in their kit bags they absolutely deserve to win, and well done them. In a way I’d like to think they can do it, or at least threaten it because I love ripping yarns. I wouldn’t put money on it though. Come to that, I wouldn’t put money on them forcing a fifth day.

  44. I can but encourage the British to muddle through to a winning score.

    This approach has served them well on innumerable occasions.

  46. Mike

    [Do you have to join Crikey to post here? I mean, if I don’t renew my subscription can I still comment?]

    I’ve never had one …

  48. Interesting factoid from the oft quoted Keane.

    [there is no mechanism for the government to simply hand $9 billion to the RBA, so it will require a parliamentary appropriation. ]

    So the $9 billion for the RBA will not, or should not, be in MYEFO tomorrow. Thus reducing the headline surplus by that amount. I assume this is why the press have moved from $50 billion to $40 as the surplus.

    It seems another Hockey stuff up, where he will have to own this mistake.

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