BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor

Another strong result for Labor from a major pollster pushes them to giddy new heights on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has now branched out into leader satisfaction and preferred prime minister.

A strong result for Labor from Newspoll sees blue and red cross paths on the BludgerTrack two-party preferred aggregate, with Labor seizing its first substantial lead since the aggregate opened for business late last year. Labor has also been boosted to one shy of an absolute majority on the seat projection, with the Coalition crashing to 70. The state breakdowns find Labor back to 2010 territory in Victoria, and doing rather a lot better than that in Queensland and Western Australia.

While mostly the work of Newspoll, part of the shift to Labor is the result of a modelling tweak to deal with the particular difficulty posed by Essential Research, which instead of favouring a particular party over time appears to have a bias towards stability. Bias adjustments based on its pre-election performance have accordingly been correcting for a lean to Labor that disappeared together with the Coalition’s polling ascendancy. So I will instead be plotting the trend of Essential’s deviation from the model’s results, with the bias corrections adjusting over time.

The other big news on the BludgerTrack front is that it is now tracking leadership ratings as well as voting intention. Such data is available fortnightly from Newspoll and monthly from Nielsen and Essential Research, which at this state leaves a fairly shallow pool. It is nonetheless clear from the sidebar that meaningful trends are already evident. I am excluding from consideration the personal ratings from ReachTEL, whose refusal to give respondents an uncommitted option leads to idiosyncratic results.

In other news, Crikey subscribers might care to enjoy my article yesterday on the inquiry into the missing WA Senate ballots.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham offers an excellent review of what the polls say, and what they mean (and don’t mean).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,310 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.2-48.8 to Labor”

  1. The thing that makes Laos so special for me is that the poverty is juxtaposed with among the most happy people that I can remember. There is plenty of poverty throughout Asia, and I have had the good fortune to visit nearly every country in Asia and seen quite a lot of poverty. However, the people in Laos, at least those which I encountered, were very, very happy (and that was pre-tip happiness, not post-tip happiness).

  2. [ Boerwar
    Posted Saturday, December 14, 2013 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

    Setting up this RC is a precedent that will almost certainly come to bite the Liberals in the bum when Labor returns to power. ]

    Pretty well a certainty.

  3. [I am staggered the PM, Joyce and Brandis were not AT Nile’s wedding.]

    That we know of yet.

    It may still come out that the coalition wedding crashers were all there, and stinging we the taxpayers for their attendance.

  4. ML

    Yeh. Living in grinding poverty is a lifestyle choice for those seeking true happiness. Why not? Life is so short when you are poor. Might as well enjoy it. Always look on the bright side of life, that sort of thing.

    IMHO, very, very wealthy people, such as yourself and myself, who can afford to travel the wide world, need to be very, very careful about interpreting smiles and laughter as denoting ‘happiness’.

  5. did Communications minister Turnbull go out on the yacht he half owns with the author of his NBN report this weekend, or do they do it at different times

  6. Mod Lib@2197

    Didn’t we learn that the ALP NBN was actually about twice as expensive as advertised?

    Isn’t that what I was predicting (to much ridicule, as usual) all along?

    Still an unsubstantiated Lib claim, but what we did learn about Fraudbad was:
    ● It will cost a lot more than claimed (>50% more)
    ● It won’t deliver the speeds claimed
    ● It will take a lot longer to roll-out than claimed
    ● It will be at least a whole 5 years before it needs to be replaced.

    Getting the picture?

  7. Mod, we didn’t learn anything with respect to the cost of Labor’s plan. There was no reason given to the figure so we’re no more informed (by the Coalition) than before the election when they said it was $90B.

    What we did learn is that the 30% of Australia within existing HFC areas will not receive the NBN, even if they can’t be connected to the cable.

  8. Boerwar, I think tourists should be just as careful in assuming the people are unhappy because they live differently.

    More generally I think anyone should be careful viewing things through their own preconceptions :P.

  9. Whatever Fred Nile means to Tony Abbott it most certainly isn’t anything to do with religion. Fred is the sort who believes the Catholic church is an abomination. To make things even worse, his new wife used to be a pastor in a Pentecostal church. That lot think the Catholic church is the whore of Babylon mentioned in Revelations and believe all Catholics are spawn of the devil.

    Maybe it’s the happy couple’s devotion to the monarchist cause that has inspired Tony’s affection.
    http://www.news.com.au/national/second-coming-of-love-for-fred-nile/story-e6frfkp9-1226634965297

    Or maybe it’s all about Fred’s help in defeating the last attempt to allow same sex marriage in NSW.

  10. ML

    no, we didn’t. The general consensus of the geek community is that nothing in the NBN review stands up to scrutiny. Basically you can’t trust a word of it.

  11. BW @2198 – according to Game Theory, that would be the best response from a re-elected Labor Government. Plus sack high ranking Coalition appointees and cancel any contracts with News Corporation where it us legal to do so. And unlike last time, certainly no sinecures for superannuated Liberals.

  12. [ Still an unsubstantiated Lib claim, but what we did learn about Fraudbad was:
    ● It will cost a lot more than claimed (>50% more)
    ● It won’t deliver the speeds claimed
    ● It will take a lot longer to roll-out than claimed
    ● It will be at least a whole 5 years before it needs to be replaced. ]

    Also IT/ Communications Professionals are laughing at Turnbulls so called *Plan*.

    Where else in the world does a political take technology in his own country backwards so significantly – while putting his own considerable capital into foreign telcos to assist them instal superior technology in their countries?

    Jesus wept. Turbull is suppose to be the smart one.

    Another broken promise to boot.

  13. Oh and that fraudband will require upgrading to the full thing after 5 years. Though they seem to think it can be spun as “not needing to be upgraded for 5 years” :P.

  14. The apostrophe wars……
    Why is it that a certain kind of pedant MUST comment on the use by others of the apostrophe

    I was once denounced in this regard by Psephos,who is of course our resident expert …on everything
    Would the language be less understood if we just ceased to use them
    …try this
    dont come to dinner /its raining heavily/I cant see him
    did anyone not understand what I mean by those phrases ?

  15. Mod Lib,

    [The thing that makes Laos so special for me is that the poverty is juxtaposed with among the most happy people that I can remember. There is plenty of poverty throughout Asia, and I have had the good fortune to visit nearly every country in Asia and seen quite a lot of poverty. However, the people in Laos, at least those which I encountered, were very, very happy (and that was pre-tip happiness, not post-tip happiness).]

    If it’s so liberating why don’t you try it yourself?

    The rich young man asked Jesus how he could achieve salvation, to which Jesus (wtte) replied, “give away all you have and come follow me!”

    The rich young man went away disappointed.

  16. If the Liberals think we can’t afford it they should just cancel it. They won’t because they know it’s popular so instead they’ve come up with a giant con.

  17. delimiter’s response was interesting. He had been giving Turnbull the benefit of the doubt, but has now basically concluded that he can’t be trusted – and that has broken basically every promise he made pre election.

  18. Turnbull’s yachting partner reckons Labor’s NBN plan would cost $72 billion. That’s a whole 22 billion less than the figure paraded at the joint Liberal-Newscorp launch of Fraudband several months back. Meanwhile, fraudband has increased by $11 billion and will take a few years longer to roll out.

    I heard Turnbull in an interview this morning about the Coalition’s policy. It was the usual empty bombast you expect from the Government. Nothing about how the Government’s plan was better because… just how bad the other lot’s were. Yet both plans had merit. A more expensive, functinally rich version versus a no- frills plan that would be quicker and cheaper. But outside technical pages, that debate hasn’t been joined.

    Basically when Liberals talk numbers (or on pretty much anything) I assume that it’s a mixture of political spin, half-truths and outright lies unless confirmed by a credible source. I call bullshit.

  19. Sphinx covered in snow first time in 112 years

    Ski Instructors have finally been able to give up their temporary jobs as camel drivers showing tourists around the Sphinx.

    One commented “It’s been a long time coming. No, we are not concerned about climate change”

    :large

  20. [ He had been giving Turnbull the benefit of the doubt, but has now basically concluded that he can’t be trusted – and that has broken basically every promise he made pre election. ]

    Quite right Zoomster – I’ve been saying for years that turnbull is just another flavour of tory nasty.

    Best thing – he would be cursing at having to be No 10 dog to abbott – who can chuck him out at anytime.

    He must be hearing Tuscany and the snazzy apartment on Central Park in NY calling all the time – while he sees his best years drain away.

    But that ambition for you.

    Deliver such lousy so called telco infrastructure as your legacy. Utterly pathetic.

    When China changed direction basically after Mao died, to being result based, Deng Xiaoping explained that results were more important than ideology – “It doesn’t matter if the cat is white or black as long as it catches mice”.

    But it would all be lost on abbott tories – ideology is more important to them.

  21. IQ test for Tories: if you pay 40 billion now for copper and 40 billion in 5 years for fibre optic, how much better is it than paying 40 billion now for fibre optic?

  22. Otiose @ 2087
    [Insulation Fires were more frequent BEFORE batts of ANY colour! ]

    In fact the number of fires were dramatically less than in the rest of the country’s housing stock.

    There are about 9.25 million homes in Australia. According the the NRMA there are around 10,000 house fires each year in which someone is injured or killed. I don’t know how many there are in which no one is hurt, by my guess would be at least twice as many, so at least 30,000 in total.

    Therefore, in the 1.1 million homes insulated under the scheme there should have been 1,189 fires involving injury or death and at least another 2,378 without injuries for a total of 3,567. In fact only 200 caught fire. Insurance companies should be offering discounts on all the ‘pink batt’ homes!

  23. paaptsef@2233

    IQ test for Tories: if you pay 40 billion now for copper and 40 billion in 5 years for fibre optic, how much better is it than paying 40 billion now for fibre optic?

    Why ask? They already failed that test. 😀

  24. paaptsef

    Posted Saturday, December 14, 2013 at 10:15 pm | Permalink

    IQ test for Tories: if you pay 40 billion now for copper and 40 billion in 5 years for fibre optic, how much better is it than paying 40 billion now for fibre optic?
    =======================================================

    That would depend on which Liberal donor I was paying the $40 billion for copper with the promise of the $40 billion for the optic fibre

  25. Deblonay, 2220

    “The apostrophe wars……
    Why is it that a certain kind of pedant MUST comment on the use by others of the apostrophe”

    As the pedant in question, I guess it’s a passion for good English and a long career in the public service. I look away most of the time, but throw in my two bob’s worth occasionally and the feral apostrophe is particularly irksome. It’s a really simple rule, but so many people, carelessly, fall into the trap. Some on here like FB say I should move on, but old habits die hard.

  26. Catalonia to vote on independence from Spain
    ________________________________
    Like the Scots… the Catalans are moving to a vote to leave Spain and become a seperate nation … despite a remarbable statement by a Spanish Minister who said the national government will not allow the vote !!…to which a Catalan leader says that there are not enough tanks in Spain to stop the vote

    http://www.lewrockwell.com/2013/12/russia-today/they-wont-have-enough-tanks-to-stop-us/

  27. [Setting up this RC is a precedent that will almost certainly come to bite the Liberals in the bum when Labor returns to power. ]

    We’ll worry about when it happens… around 2022.

  28. [ FTTH Also has cabinets…. a little fact often ignored. ]

    http://nbnmyths.wordpress.com/why-not-fttn/

    [ FTTN isn’t really a pathway to later upgrades to FTTP. Most of the systems deployed for FTTN will not be reused, and so would be wasted. FTTP doesn’t need street cabinets, because the GPON nodes are small enough to fit in pits and don’t require electrical power. All of the DSL systems that go along with FTTN are also wasted. ]

  29. The Liberals seem pretty determined to fight old battles. Gillard, Rudd they are both out of politics. The fact they are bothering underlines just how incompetent the Liberals are. Who cares.

  30. Surely with this apostrophe stuff there must be a middle way?

    For instance who spells fo’c’sle, fo’c’sle these days?

    And what to do about place names such as “Prince’s Highway”?

    At any one time there is a kind of middle way without the pedants, ignorants and the do-not-cares (don’t cares) all being self-righteous about it all?

    Mind you, there is, is there not, a clear difference in meaning between your and you’re??

    Golly, this might set the rabbits running. Slow news night.

  31. [ The fact they are bothering underlines just how incompetent the Liberals are. ]

    I’d say “desperate” rather than “incompetent”. Or perhaps both.

  32. Fred, the “about Rowan Ramsey” page tells us that the man is very keen on family, farming, democracy and the great nation of Australia. It does not however say anything of substance “about Rowan Ramsey”.

  33. This week will see the publication of Joe Hockey’s fabulous self-inflating MYEFO fantasy, wherein the deficit will be tipped to be running at around $45-50 billion, or 3% of GDP. For this, he will blame Labor and plan to go on blaming Labor for all political eternity.

    At the same time, he will foreshadow some deep budget cutting and predict that eventually the deficit will come down, for which he will attempt to claim all the credit.

    However, whether the deficit actually comes down or not in future years will depend on the rate of growth in the economy and the rate of growth in both receipts and outlays. What is most likely to happen is a combination of three trends:

    – growth in the economy will remain well below trend
    – demand on outlays will continue to grow faster than the economy or the population because of demographic factors
    – in the absence of reform of the tax shelters, revenue will grow less quickly than either the economy in general or outlays

    So the underlying deficit will continue to rise. We have been in structural deficit for more than a decade so far and nothing proposed is going to change this. Rather, the gradual unwinding of terms of trade gains, combined with decelerating growth rates in productivity, mean growth in the economy and in incomes must remain very weak for many years to come, and deficits will continue to grow.

    It is important to realise that the recent pressure (since 2011) on real national disposable income is only the start. It is a consequence of a so-far restrained fall in the prices of iron ore and coal. Prices for these commodities and LNG are very likely to fall a long way further in the next few years. Meanwhile, on the import side of the terms of trade equation, as the currency falls, we will see steep rises in the prices of imported fuels and manufactures. This was certainly reflected in the most recent national accounts, where the decline in the terms of trade was driven by increasing import prices rather than falling export prices. In these accounts, the domestic economy showed almost no growth at all. Consumption growth and investment were very weak, which is exactly what has been predicted with the end of the resources investment boom.

    All together, the coming normalisation in the terms of trade mean real per capita disposable incomes must fall. The corollary is fiscal revenue growth will also undershoot unless there is deep reform of the tax system.

    The only escape route from this would be a sudden acceleration in the rate of growth of the economy as a whole. But there is just no sign that this can occur. What is more likely is that budget cutting – rather than revenue reform – by the LNP will provoke a recession. Then we will really get to witness a budget emergency.

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